MBB: Duke @UNC Pre-game and in-game thread (Now Feb 20 2100 EST)

[Bob Green]

...but I expect we'll see Plumlee and Hairston getting opportunity to wrestle with Carolina's big boys. Plumlee is the one guy we've got who can out-size and out-muscle Meeks.

Both coaches influence the match-ups on the court. If I was Roy Williams, and Coach K subbed in Plumlee, I would immediately go small with a line-up of Brice Johnson, McAdoo, Tokoto, McDonald and Paige. Johnson is way too quick for Plumlee to guard.

[Kedsy]

Both coaches influence the match-ups on the court. If I was Roy Williams, and Coach K subbed in Plumlee, I would immediately go small with a line-up of Brice Johnson, McAdoo, Tokoto, McDonald and Paige. Johnson is way too quick for Plumlee to guard.

That's true, but Marshall could back off into a sort of one-man-zone, because Johnson is little (no?) threat to shoot from outside. At least until the next time out when (as you suggest), Coach K would probably go small on our side.

[Troublemaker]

Both teams are red hot going in. Duke has covered 7 consecutive point spreads, and UNC has covered 5 consecutive point spreads. Something's got to give.

Unless they push. (Line won't be known until Tuesday evening.)

[Troublemaker]

Kennedy Meeks does not think much of Marshall Plumlee and Duke's inside players: http://youtu.be/qT3Yc6-wSLQ?t=6m15s

Skip to 2:50 and 6:15 of that video for examples.

Note: this is obviously just a bunch of kids trash-talking and having fun. Please hold no ill will towards Meeks. In fact, he's probably one of the more likable Heels in awhile. BUT, if Amile and MP3 happen to outplay him Wednesday, this video will be fun in hindsight.

[freshmanjs]

Obviously upsets happen all the time, and UNC has proven they can beat more talented teams like Michigan State, Louisville, and Kentucky. That said, basketball, while not a one-on-one game, is a game of matchups, and I think we match up pretty well with the Tar Heels. They've been consistently playing 7 guys (their 8th guy rarely if ever sees more than 6 minutes), and we've been essentially playing 8, so it's not that hard to compare.

Let's start with the backcourt. Everyone's worried about Paige, but a side-by-side comparison between Paige and Quinn Cook shows that, statistically, they're nearly identical players. Paige plays more minutes than Quinn and gets to the line more, so he scores a few more points, but other than that, the numbers are remarkably similar.

The rest of UNC's backcourt is Tokoto, McDonald, and Britt. Duke's corresponding players are Rasheed, Andre, and Tyler. Statistically and eye test, that's a HUGE advantage for Duke.

Now, to the frontcourt, where UNC is supposedly so much bigger than us. Now that Roy plays a shorter rotation, however, that advantage boils down to one McDonald's All-American vs. one McDonald's customer. Here's a side-by-side comparison of Kennedy Meeks and Amile Jefferson. Other than weight, Amile is superior in almost every statistical category. In rebounding they're about the same. Meeks ranks first in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (26.1) and Amile ranks second (23.9); while in offensive rebounding percentage, Amile ranks 4th (15.2) in the conference and Meeks ranks fifth (14.2). Looking at the numbers, Meeks may have a very slight advantage, but that's probably ameliorated by the fact that Amile plays almost 30% more minutes (Meeks has averaged fewer than 15 mpg in his last three games). In addition, on offense, Amile is a far superior player statistically.

The rest of UNC's frontcourt is McAdoo and Brice Johnson vs. Jabari and Rodney. McAdoo (6'9, 230) is an inch taller than Jabari (6'8, 235) and 5 pounds lighter. Johnson (6'9, 210) is similarly an inch taller and 5 pounds lighter than Rodney (6'8, 215). So, no real size advantage for UNC and another HUGE talent advantage for Duke, again both by the statistics and the eye test. As a bonus, our 8th man, Marshall Plumlee is 7'0, 260 and can counteract in all ways if UNC decides to play their 8th man, Joel James (6'10, 280).

So, while I suppose it's possible for Paige to dominate Quinn and/or for Meeks to eat Amile up (hopefully not literally), or for some unheralded player like Brice Johnson to have a career day, the overall picture looks pretty good for Duke. That's not to say we'll definitely win -- we've already lost to less talented teams like Clemson and Notre Dame -- but honestly, if their shirts said "Georgia Tech" instead of "North Carolina," I think most of you would be a lot less worried.

if both teams had "Georgia Tech" on their shirts, would you still be more worried about playing #153 kenpom 6-17 BC* than #26 kenpom 16-7 UNC? i actually agree that we are better than UNC and should feel confident going in. But, I can't understand at all why you were preaching worry against BC and are preaching not to worry against a much, much better UNC team.

* I know this rating includes the Duke game just played. I don't have the rating as of just before the game.

[MChambers]

Now, to the frontcourt, where UNC is supposedly so much bigger than us. Now that Roy plays a shorter rotation, however, that advantage boils down to one McDonald's All-American vs. one McDonald's customer. Here's a side-by-side comparison of Kennedy Meeks and Amile Jefferson. Other than weight, Amile is superior in almost every statistical category. In rebounding they're about the same. Meeks ranks first in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (26.1) and Amile ranks second (23.9); while in offensive rebounding percentage, Amile ranks 4th (15.2) in the conference and Meeks ranks fifth (14.2). Looking at the numbers, Meeks may have a very slight advantage, but that's probably ameliorated by the fact that Amile plays almost 30% more minutes (Meeks has averaged fewer than 15 mpg in his last three games). In addition, on offense, Amile is a far superior player statistically.

This is great. You don't need more sporks, but you've earned them.

[throatybeard]

I just re-counted, and my new count says it will be the 73rd time in the last 76 Duke/UNC games that one or the other (or both) is in the top 10.

The last time neither team has been in the top 10 was in the 2003 ACC Tournament (Duke #12; UNC unranked). This week's game will be the 22nd Duke/UNC game since then.

The second one is the 1997 home game.

What's the third?

[Olympic Fan]

And of course, this will be the 154th straight meeting in which either Duke or UNC (or both) is ranked.

That streak dates back to Feb. 25, 1955 when unranked Duke beat unranked UNC in Durham 96-74. The oddity is that the next time they met -- in the 1955 Dixie Classic -- both teams were ranked in the top 10. Note: There was one game in 1960 when neither was ranked in the AP poll, but UNC was No. 10 in the coaches poll that week.

To me, this streak is the definitive reason that Duke-UNC is the greatest rivalry in college sports. Can you name another rivalry that has featured a ranked team in every meeting for close to 60 years?

[Kedsy]

The second one is the 1997 home game.

What's the third?

March 3, 1996; unranked Duke hosting #19 UNC.

if both teams had "Georgia Tech" on their shirts, would you still be more worried about playing #153 kenpom 6-17 BC* than #26 kenpom 16-7 UNC? i actually agree that we are better than UNC and should feel confident going in. But, I can't understand at all why you were preaching worry against BC and are preaching not to worry against a much, much better UNC team.

* I know this rating includes the Duke game just played. I don't have the rating as of just before the game.

I was worried about BC because (a) they've underperformed to their talent and were almost guaranteed to play their best game at home against Duke; (b) their offensive style is very close to the styles that have given us fits; and (c) we're getting better, but Duke is prone to concentration lapses when the players feel it's OK to relax.

Comparing to UNC, (a) unlike BC I think UNC has overperformed a little; (b) despite their big bodies they play an offensive style that Duke plays better defense against; and (c) hard to imagine our guys losing their focus in a Duke/UNC game.

So, call me irrational if you wish, but that's why.

[MChambers]

Comparing to UNC, (a) unlike BC I think UNC has overperformed a little; (b) despite their big bodies they play an offensive style that Duke plays better defense against; and (c) hard to imagine our guys losing their focus in a Duke/UNC game.

So, call me irrational if you wish, but that's why.

Re the highlighted language, in some ways that's true: BC is quicker and better at dribble penetration, but also more reliant on the 3, which Duke takes away. I take it you think we defend post up offense better than dribble penetration. Am I reading your post correctly?

[roywhite]

Comparing Duke and UNC; conference game-only stats YTD and ranks within conference:

Scoring margin
2. Duke +13.0
5. UNC +4.1

Free Throw %
1. Duke 76.8%
13. UNC 62.3%

FG%
4. Duke 44.4%
10. UNC 43.2%

3-pt FG %
1. Duke 43.0%
13. UNC 29.2%

FG% Defense
6. UNC 41.7%
14. Duke 46.8%

3-pt FG% Defense
1. UNC 30.5%
11. Duke 37.2%

Rebound Margin
1. UNC +6.2
4. Duke +2.5

Asst/Turnover ratio
1. Duke 1.7
5. UNC 1.3

Made 3-pt FG per game
1. Duke 10.6
13. UNC 4.2

[Troublemaker]

Comparing Duke and UNC; conference game-only stats YTD and ranks within conference:

3-pt FG% Defense
1. UNC 30.5%
11. Duke 37.2%

This stat might jump out at folks who haven't been tracking these things.

While UNC still allows plenty of 3-pt attempts (ranking 247th in the country at limiting 3-pt attempts), opponents are only making their threes against UNC 30.9% of the time for the season, which is the lowest mark since Roy has been at UNC. This maybe suggests that while UNC will give up the attempt, they are pretty good at closing out on shooters this season, forcing a challenged shot.

Duke, at least in ACC play, has been the opposite. We lead the conference in limiting 3-pt attempts (and are 8th in the country for the season), but when ACC opponents have gotten the shot off, they are hitting them at 37.2% as you note. (For the entire season, though, we are holding opponents to 31.2%, good for 45th in the country. The 37.2% in ACC play strikes me as a little bit fluky, helped by there being a relatively limited amount of attempts.)

[Kedsy]

Re the highlighted language, in some ways that's true: BC is quicker and better at dribble penetration, but also more reliant on the 3, which Duke takes away. I take it you think we defend post up offense better than dribble penetration. Am I reading your post correctly?

Someone who's watched more Carolina than I have can certainly contradict me, but how much posting up is actually going on in UNC's offense this season? None of their five leading scorers are post-up guys -- McAdoo has always seemed to me to be a face up player, and to my knowledge that's not Johnson's game either. None of their big men pass or handle particularly well. Also, they don't run very many backdoor cuts, right?

They play at a very fast pace, which won't faze us. In fact, I believe we prefer it over very slow pace teams like BC and Vermont. In the halfcourt, they have Paige (two thirds of his points come from three or the foul line) plus some other fairly inefficient backcourt options, plus mostly face up guys in the frontcourt. A lot of one-on-one play where they rely on their athleticism (but not necessarily super-quick and not so much guard-initiated dribble-penetration). We can defend that a lot easier than BC's offense. Do they play a lot of high screen-and-rolls? We might have some trouble with that, but we've been improving in that area so hopefully we'll handle it.

[roywhite]

Someone who's watched more Carolina than I have can certainly contradict me, but how much posting up is actually going on in UNC's offense this season? None of their five leading scorers are post-up guys -- McAdoo has always seemed to me to be a face up player, and to my knowledge that's not Johnson's game either. None of their big men pass or handle particularly well. Also, they don't run very many backdoor cuts, right?

They play at a very fast pace, which won't faze us. In fact, I believe we prefer it over very slow pace teams like BC and Vermont. In the halfcourt, they have Paige (two thirds of his points come from three or the foul line) plus some other fairly inefficient backcourt options, plus mostly face up guys in the frontcourt. A lot of one-on-one play where they rely on their athleticism (but not necessarily super-quick and not so much guard-initiated dribble-penetration). We can defend that a lot easier than BC's offense. Do they play a lot of high screen-and-rolls? We might have some trouble with that, but we've been improving in that area so hopefully we'll handle it.

The guy that seems to personify this UNC team is J.P. Tokoto:
He is a good run/jump athlete, though not big for his position
He is a good defender, who gets a high number of steals (1.7/game)
He is not a good free throw shooter (actually, really bad at 46.3%) nor a good 3-pt shooter (28.0%)
He manages to get some good looks at the basket, through transition and ball movement, and has a decent 2-pt % (over 49%)

Overall, he can do some things, but is not as talented as we normally see for a UNC regular

[gofurman]

Both teams are red hot going in. Duke has covered 7 consecutive point spreads, and UNC has covered 5 consecutive point spreads. Something's got to give.

Unless they push. (Line won't be known until Tuesday evening.)

As long as Duke is favored Ill take that push ! This game ALWAYS makes me nervous - and there is reason to back that up... like the infamous Jeff Capel halfcourt shot etc.. the underdogs typically play above themselves in this game.. Think our Austin Rivers game winner - UNC was the far better team. The better team usually wins but the margin is usually less than expected.

I have noticed that per your Vegas reference WHEN and IF Duke is favored we typically win but do not cover. This falls in line with the "underdog plays up to the level of their opponent" mantra. Most any rivalry game (and ESP this one) the underdog stays closer than expected. Our biggest game to date in ACC? Duke at Syracuse - Cuse won but did not cover the spread... Same theory though that is not an 'established rivalry' yet.

[Troublemaker]

None of their five leading scorers are post-up guys -- McAdoo has always seemed to me to be a face up player, and to my knowledge that's not Johnson's game either.

I would say Brice Johnson has a good postup game. Nice jumphook and turnaround. Incidentally, he's played more minutes than Meeks the past three games. He's very, very athletic and is UNC's best shotblocker among their regulars (although other aspects of defense have kept him from being a 30mpg starter.) I wouldn't be surprised if the UNC post player that hurts us the most inside ends up being the 6'9" 210 Johnson.

[-jk]

Anyone know if Marshall will be back for this one?

-jk

[Troublemaker]

While UNC still allows plenty of 3-pt attempts (ranking 247th in the country at limiting 3-pt attempts), opponents are only making their threes against UNC 30.9% of the time for the season, which is the lowest mark since Roy has been at UNC.

However, this UNC team has been by far the worst of all of Roy's teams at preventing opponents from getting to the free throw line. They rank 185th in the country in opposing FT Rate (and 12th among ACC teams in conference play) while most Roy teams in the past have ranked in the top 25 nationally in this category.

So while I expect Duke to shoot 3s just fine in this game, if for some reason we shoot in the low 30s percentage-wise, we hopefully can make up for it by making some aggressive plays that takes us to the FT line. And if we can shoot 3s like normal AND get to the FT line, that would be the ideal.

[Troublemaker]

Anyone know if Marshall will be back for this one?

-jk

According to the Herald Sun beat reporter Steve Wiseman, yes

Stephen Wiseman ‏@stevewisemanNC Feb 8

Marshall Plumlee strained a tendon in his knee a couple of days ago, Coach K said. Held out today but should be fine for UNC game

[Troublemaker]

However, this UNC team has been by far the worst of all of Roy's teams at preventing opponents from getting to the free throw line. They rank 185th in the country in opposing FT Rate (and 12th among ACC teams in conference play) while most Roy teams in the past have ranked in the top 25 nationally in this category.

So while I expect Duke to shoot 3s just fine in this game, if for some reason we shoot in the low 30s percentage-wise, we hopefully can make up for it by making some aggressive plays that takes us to the FT line. And if we can shoot 3s like normal AND get to the FT line, that would be the ideal.

ADDITIONALLY, UNC ranks only 145th in the country at defensive rebounding rate. So maybe we can pound the offensive boards a little bit on them as well. They're certainly going to try to do that to us on the other end.