2016 Basketball Recruiting Thread

[Duke95]

So I repeat, what do you mean by "major minutes"?

[CDu]

Not sure what you mean by "solid minutes" ...

As recently as 2009, K played eight players with at least 15.8 minutes a game and the ninth (Brian Zoubek) played 11.9. And that doesn't count Miles Plumlee, who actually started two games early.

The deepest team I can remember was 1998 -- no player played more than 28.8 minutes, six played at least 22 and Will Avery barely missed 20 (19.7). The eighth and ninth guys played 14 and 12 minutes respectively.

The 1991 team had nine players play at least 10.7 minutes a game and those nine all started at least eight games each.

There are several instances when K played six players more than 20 minutes a game ... I could see that happen this year with one guy just under that and the last two guys at 10-15 minutes.

Just don't ask me who those two will be ... Will K run a nine-man rotation? I doubt it for any important game, but I would bet that the top nine players all get extended looks in the rotation at some point. They can earn their minutes.

FWIW: Last year's team finished the season with an eight-man rotation and I think you'll all agree that all eight made significant contributions down the stretch. But neither Plumlee nor Allen averaged 10 minutes a game for the season. So I repeat, what do you mean by "major minutes"?

It is worth noting that 1998 has two big anomalies: Elton Brand missed several games with his injury, and Ricky Price missed several games with suspensions. Those two things probably inflated our 8th/9th man minutes a bit. But we still probably would have had 8 guys in double figure minutes and a 9th in that neighborhood.

Also worth noting, as you allude, that down the stretch our rotations trimmed substantially to 6-7 men in big games.

But I agree that there is a decent chance we will see 9 guys average double figure minutes. And if not, I think the 9th will be in the neighborhood of 10 minutes.

[ChillinDuke]

Not sure what you mean by "solid minutes" ...

...

So I repeat, what do you mean by "major minutes"?

If you don't know Kedsy's definition of "major minutes" by now, you clearly haven't been listening.

It's a recurring phrase in my life on par with "How was your day?" or "Thank you very much."

major minutes (MA-jore MIN-uts) (DBR noun) - a double digit minutes average (>= 10) in conference games which are decided by 20 or less points

Now that I stuck my neck out, I probably got it wrong.

- Chillin

[MarkD83]

If you don't know Kedsy's definition of "major minutes" by now, you clearly haven't been listening.

It's a recurring phrase in my life on par with "How was your day?" or "Thank you very much."

major minutes (MA-jore MIN-uts) (DBR noun) - a double digit minutes average (>= 10) in conference games which are decided by 20 or less points

Now that I stuck my neck out, I probably got it wrong.

- Chillin

Well then...I hope nobody on the current team plays major minutes.

[Kedsy]

If you don't know Kedsy's definition of "major minutes" by now, you clearly haven't been listening.

It's a recurring phrase in my life on par with "How was your day?" or "Thank you very much."

major minutes (MA-jore MIN-uts) (DBR noun) - a double digit minutes average (>= 10) in conference games which are decided by 20 or less points

Now that I stuck my neck out, I probably got it wrong.

- Chillin

You were very close. It's games after January 1 which are decided by 20 or fewer points (which are mostly conference games but not all). It's an attempt to eliminate garbage-time minutes from the calculation, and that's why using season averages, as Olympic Fan has, isn't as useful as it could be. Especially if you don't count DNP-CDs as 0 minutes (as Olympic Fan apparently didn't take into account).

In 1997-98, we had 13 games after January 1 decided by fewer than 20 points. In 9 of those games we had 7 players with double-figure minutes and in 4 games we had 8 such players. The average number of players getting double-figure minutes in such games was 7.31. Also, since only 13 of our 36 games were post-January 1, non-blowouts, it might help explain why we had so many players with high mpg averages for the season (in addition to the Elton Brand injury and the Ricky Price suspension which CDu mentioned).

In 2008-09, we had 20 such games. In 15 of those games we had 7 or fewer players with double-figure minutes (10 games with 7; 4 games with 6; 1 game with 5). In 4 games we had 8 such players, and in one game we had 9. The average number of players getting double-figure minutes in such games was 7.00.

So, I expect that all nine players will get some run in November and December, and in blowouts after that, but the real test will be whether all nine guys keep playing in close games after January 1. If so, it would be unprecedented (the highest average of players getting double-figure minutes in such games during K's tenure at Duke is 7.58 in 2007-08). If not, who will be the odd men out?

[sagegrouse]

All you say makes sense. The odd thing this season is you can make a very strong case for each of our nine recruited, scholarship, non-redshirting players to get (at least) solid minutes this season. So one of two things is going to happen: (a) Coach K will break a 35-year precedent and play nine guys at least solid minutes; or (b) someone with a very strong case for minutes will end up not getting them (possibly two someones).

I admit at this point I have no idea which way it's going to go.

Believe it!

[sagegrouse]

All you say makes sense. The odd thing this season is you can make a very strong case for each of our nine recruited, scholarship, non-redshirting players to get (at least) solid minutes this season. So one of two things is going to happen: (a) Coach K will break a 35-year precedent and play nine guys at least solid minutes; or (b) someone with a very strong case for minutes will end up not getting them (possibly two someones).

I admit at this point I have no idea which way it's going to go.

It's a different world, isn't it? We have four highly ranked freshman, one sophomore transfer, two veterans that averaged over 20 MPG last year (Amile and Matt), and two veterans who averaged just over 10 MPG (Grayson and the Field Marshall). Moreover, Amile and Matt each averaged only six points per game.

I think everybody on the above list is gonna get a chance to play early in the season. How it will work out in the ACC season is anybody's guess.

[BD80]

Can we PLEASE keep minutes discussions in the "minutes" thread.

PLEASE?

[Kedsy]

Can we PLEASE keep minutes discussions in the "minutes" thread.

PLEASE?

spoilsport.

[SilkyJ]

Well, I doubt I'll convince any true believer in the Crystal Ball, but the crux of my argument is that it is NOT an aggregation of "insider's picks", just an aggregation of analyst picks.

I'm wouldn't call myself a true believer. I think it aggregates disparate data and I feel comfortable analyzing said data.

There are precious few genuine insiders when it comes, for example, to Duke hoops, and they aren't seen at Crystal Ball.

That's simply a false statement. Adam Rowe, aka Airowe on these boards, has proven consistently to be well connected within the program. He runs the Duke page on 247 and is all over the crystal ball. To suggest Jerry Meyer isn't well connected within recruiting circles seems silly to me as well.

But Duke hoops, Kentucky hoops, Kansas hoops, UCLA hoops, etc are all intertwined when it comes to these recruitments. Often a kid is choosing between 5 schools (sometimes less and more straightforward, sometimes more and very "unknown" outcome). So there are quite a few more "genuine insiders" that are at play in these decisions and could helpfully shed light on where a kid may go.

It's not just Duke insiders that offer valuable clues in Duke recruitments.

- Chillin

Also true.

[kAzE]

Budwom -- not Budworm -- is not a UK fan, but is among the most dedicated, and knowledgeable, and reasonable Duke fans participating in this forum. In fact, he has been a regular poster and contributing writer (anonymously) to the DBR since its inception in the mid-1990s, when Boswell and Julio (and later James Armstrong) took this from a one-page website to the premier online community for Duke fans. He is a proud and loyal Duke alumnus, who was an undergrad during the same period as me in the late 60s and early 70s, when he worked on the sports staff at the Chronicle. He and I have been close friends and have attended Duke football and basketball games together for decades, including ACC Tournaments and Final Fours. It merits noting that he is one of the few fans who has regularly traveled from afar to attend Duke home football games even through the dark days of the winless seasons.

I'm unable to evaluate your sources, but I note that you quickly went from declaring unequivocally that Thon Maker "DOES" (caps yours) have an offer from Duke to saying that "it seems pretty reasonably true." I can attest to the fact that Budwom has a lengthy track record here for posting reliable information from proven insiders. So unless you have firsthand knowledge that refutes what he's said, I believe his statements regarding the status of a recruit and outstanding offers from Duke should be deemed presumptively credible, and that he deserves greater respect than you are showing -- and certainly no less than he has accorded you. We've lost far too many of the original posters in this community. Let's not discourage the few who remain to continue participating by sniping at them.

Who's sniping? Have you read through all these posts? If you did, you'd realize I'm the one under attack here and I'm only defending myself. I posted a link in the hopes of helping others, and that was it. I only questioned Mr. Budwom's credibility because he stated rather confidently that Duke hasn't offered Udoka Azubuike, yet at least one credible source lists him with a Duke offer. (ESPN) He might be a long-time member of DBR, but that doesn't mean he has the right to say whatever he wants, nor does it mean he can act like an entitled brat and call me "woefully ill informed." I happen to be a hardcore Duke fan/alum who's been posting on this board for a long time as well. You have to give respect to earn respect, and I'm going to leave it at that.

[NSDukeFan]

Can we PLEASE keep minutes discussions in the "minutes" thread.

PLEASE?

I thought all threads were supposed to be minutes threads?

[OldPhiKap]

I thought all threads were supposed to be minutes threads?

y'know who else obsessed over minutes distribution?

Hitler.

Just sayin'

[camion]

y'know who else obsessed over minutes distribution?

Hitler.

Just sayin'

Nice try.

[budwom]

Assuming Frank the Tank and Robinson don't play this year, that leaves us with nine guys if I count correctly. K seems pretty happy
playing eight guys and decent minutes to a ninth perhaps, so call it 8.5 guys. To me, anyway, the most interesting competition will be
among Obi, Plumlee and Jeter. I have no idea how that will go. (I think everyone else gets solid rotational minutes).

I can understand the skepticism about Obi only because few of us have ever seen him play, and he's not a new recruit about whom
we've read countless scouting reports. I guess I just consider him a major unknown at this point. But if he can defend and rebound, he's
got a great opportunity.

[Leelee902]

Just so we are clear...

it's Vrank the Tank. The distinction seems more appropriate as Frank the Tank should be coming in next year to ramp up the already formidable artillery.

[flyingdutchdevil]

You were very close. It's games after January 1 which are decided by 20 or fewer points (which are mostly conference games but not all). It's an attempt to eliminate garbage-time minutes from the calculation, and that's why using season averages, as Olympic Fan has, isn't as useful as it could be. Especially if you don't count DNP-CDs as 0 minutes (as Olympic Fan apparently didn't take into account).

In 1997-98, we had 13 games after January 1 decided by fewer than 20 points. In 9 of those games we had 7 players with double-figure minutes and in 4 games we had 8 such players. The average number of players getting double-figure minutes in such games was 7.31. Also, since only 13 of our 36 games were post-January 1, non-blowouts, it might help explain why we had so many players with high mpg averages for the season (in addition to the Elton Brand injury and the Ricky Price suspension which CDu mentioned).

In 2008-09, we had 20 such games. In 15 of those games we had 7 or fewer players with double-figure minutes (10 games with 7; 4 games with 6; 1 game with 5). In 4 games we had 8 such players, and in one game we had 9. The average number of players getting double-figure minutes in such games was 7.00.

So, I expect that all nine players will get some run in November and December, and in blowouts after that, but the real test will be whether all nine guys keep playing in close games after January 1. If so, it would be unprecedented (the highest average of players getting double-figure minutes in such games during K's tenure at Duke is 7.58 in 2007-08). If not, who will be the odd men out?

Ooooooooo. I'll bite.

Guaranteed major minuters (no order):
-Grayson
-Thornton
-Ingram
-Jones
-Jefferson

Maybe major minuters:
-Obi
-MP3
-Jeter
-Kennard

So, between the maybes, I think it's a battle between the three bigs for a starting position and a good chunk of the minutes. And I think another one of them will get significant minutes. I'm not sure if Obi will start, but I really think that he will be one of the 7.5ers. Reasons: he's probably our best rebounder (and rebounding could be a weakness), he's a Duke transfer (Coach K's last three transfers - Hood, Curry, and Jones - averaged 32.9, 25.0, and 28.9 in their first seasons at Duke), and he's the only player of the three to average over 10 minutes per game in NCAA D1 play. Yes, it was a lesser conference and, yes, MP3 has more experience, but when was the last time Coach K had a transfer who wasn't an impactful player from day one? So, with Obi, I'm at 6 major minuters.

The debate between MP3 and Jeter is an interesting one. MP3 has the experience, arguably the defensive presence, and understands the system. But Jeter is the better offensive player (and arguably the best offensive player amongst our 4 "big men"), the highly rated recruit, the player with significantly more potential, and someone who can potentially play the 4 (didn't he play PF in high school?). Gun to my head, I think Jeter will garner more minutes post Jan 1, because of his offensive skills. So that's 7 major minuters.

And as for that 0.5, I think it's Kennard. Kennard's shooting and potential PG skills will come in handy, but if Ingram does indeed spend most of the time at the 3, that is squeezing Kennard's minutes big time.

SIDE NOTE: Everyone has their favorite players every season, and that's natural. We also have players who we think are better than others. If we use DBR as a measuring stick, then my take on players and their impact next year is as follows:

-Thornton: on par
-Ingram: on par
-Jefferson: on par
-Grayson: FDD higher
-Jones: FDD higher (somewhere, Ferryfor50 is smiling that he has a fellow Matt Jones supporter)
-Obi: FDD higher
-Jeter: FDD higher
-MP3: DBR higher
-Kennard: DBR higher (and probably a lot higher)

[Clay Feet POF]

Believe it!

I agree. I think Grayson Allen’s performance in that tight spot against Wisconsin got Coach K thinking….if Sulaimon and Semi were here Grayson doesn’t play.

It may be riskier to have a large rotation during the season, but the rewards can be great.
With Duke’s traditional talent of incoming players I believe the risk is low compared to the results with players and records.

[duke09hms]

just so we are clear...

It's vrank the tank. The distinction seems more appropriate as frank the tank should be coming in next year to ramp up the already formidable artillery.

Too soon man! Too soon!

[budwom]

Too soon man! Too soon!

yup, pre-coffee brain cramp with Frank vs Vrank...