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  1. #1
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    Top 5 movies of Summer... the contenders

    I know it is early, but I wanted to ask the masses... which films do we need to include? Here are the reasonable contenders... by release date:

    April 4 - Capt America: The Winter Soldier - All Marvel movies have $200+ mil potential. The Avengers halo has boosted Iron Man 3 and Thor 2 well above previous versions of those franchises. The last Cap film made $175+ mil. This one should easily pass the crucial $200 mil barrier to be a player in our contest, even with the pre-summer release date.

    April 11 - Rio 2 - The original made just a bit less than $150 mil. Animated sequels tend to be a pretty solid bet.

    April 18 - Transcendence - Johnny Depp in a sci-fi thriller is probably a good boxofice formula... even if Depp is mostly off screen the whole time as a digital AI of some sort. Worth noting that the director of this flick is Wally Pfister who has been Christopher Nolan's Director of Photography on the Dark Knight films as well as Inception.

    April 18 - Heaven is for Real - go ahead... be against the power of America's Christian community to make a mainstream movie about one of their biggest beliefs into a big hit. I dare you.

    May 2 - Amazing Spiderman 2 - Jamie Foxx and Paul Giamatti as bad guys. The original made $260+ mil. Sony has already announced AS 3 for 2016 and AS 4 for 2018, so they clearly are seeing something to like in these films.

    May 9 - Neighbors - Can a comedy crack our top 5? Seth Rogan will try as he teams with Zach Efron.

    May 16 - Godzilla - Before you laugh, it is worth noting that the director is Gareth Edwards, who made a great character-driven film called Monsters a couple years ago. And the screenplay got a hefty contribution from Frank Darabont (Shawshank, Green Mile, Walking Dead).

    May 23 - X-Men: Days of Future Past - big, big, big buzz about this film. Combines the X-Men of the early 2000s with the reboot ones of two years ago. Hugh Jackman plus Michael Fassbender.

    May 23 - Blended - Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore have made boxoffice magic before in 50 First Dates ($120 mil boxoffice in 2004) and The Wedding Singer ($80 mil in 1998).

    May 30 - Maleficent - Angelina Jolie as one of Disney's greatest baddies. Appears it will be Snow White and the Huntsman minus some of the depressing, adult-oriented imagery and themes. Disney is looking for a PG rating and hopes to bring in adults and kids.

    May 30 - A Million Ways to Die in the West - Go ahead, bet against writer/director Seth McFarlane (Family Guy, Ted). Worth noting that Seth actually stars in this film as something more than a voice. That makes me nervous but anything with Neil Patrick Harris that doesn't also include tiny blue animated characters is a must see for me!

    June 6 - Edge of Tomorrow - Tom Cruise wears what appears to be the exact same outfit Matt Damon wore in Elysium in a film that is a future-war version of Groundhog Day... minus any humor. Yup, sounds like a real winner!

    June 13 - 22 Jump Street - The original made almost $140 mil without the benefit of a cushy summer release date. Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill are even bigger stars now than they were then.

    June 13 - How To Train Your Dragon 2 - The trailer gives away a huge, key plot point but I doubt that will matter to ever single kid between the ages of 4 and 12 who will all want to see this film.

    June 27 - Transformers: Age of Extinction - Mark Whalbeg replaces Shia LaBeouf which is a big, big, big upgrade. These films are automatic, no matter how much they suck... and they really do suck.

    July 4 - Tammy - Go ahead, bet against Melissa McCarthy. Pairing her with Susan Sarandon as a drunk, potty-mouthed grandmother could be brilliant!

    July 18 - Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - The last one made $176 mil with a less desirable Aug release date. There was so much good-will earned by that high-quality film, the sequel should be huge.

    July 25 - Jupiter Ascending - The Wachowskis are still trying to recapture their Matrix magic. I loved Cloud Atlas but it was a boxoffice bomb. Mila Kunis and Channing Tatum will at least make this flick easy on the eyes.

    Aug 1 - Guardians of the Galaxy - Remember what I said about Marvel movies? This is the most out-of-this-world Marvel film yet. It may make the Thor films feel downright normal by comparison. The cast is full of big names, though many of them do the voices of digital characters (Bradley Cooper as a raccoon-like alien, Vin Diesel as a tree-like alien) rather than actually appearing in the film. This is the movie that involves that Thanos bad-guy character that we glimpsed in the Avengers post-credit sequence.

    Did I leave anything out? This is 19 films... which 5 do we cull to arrive at our 14 contenders (I have to leave space for an "other/not listed" vote).

    In case you were wondering, yes, this will be the first summer without a Pixar film since 2005.

    -Jason "I see at least 8 films that feel like locks to make $200+ mil... gonna be a very difficult contest to pick" Evans
    Last edited by JasonEvans; 01-27-2014 at 03:18 PM.
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  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Aug 1 - Guardians of the Galaxy - Remember what I said about Marvel movies? This is the most out-of-this-world Marvel film yet. It may make the Thor films feel downright normal by comparison. The cast is full of big names, though many of them do the voices of digital characters (Bradley Cooper as a raccoon-like alien, Vin Diesel as a tree-like alien) rather than actually appearing in the film. This is the movie that involves that Thanos bad-guy character that we glimpsed in the Avengers post-credit sequence.
    Benicio del Toro is playing The Collector in this film (we first caught a glimpse of him in the post-credit scene in Thor 2). Supposedly, he is playing the character as "an intergalactic version of Liberace." Well, with a description like that, how can this film be anything but a huge, huge hit?

    -Jason "if there is one thing mainstream America loves, it is flamboyantly gay space-aliens!" Evans
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  3. #3
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    So if we need to cut 5, I would vote against Transcendence, Heaven is for Real, Godzilla, Blended, and Edge of Tomorrow.
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  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    So if we need to cut 5, I would vote against Transcendence, Heaven is for Real, Godzilla, Blended, and Edge of Tomorrow.
    I would not cut Godzilla. 22 Jump Street seems like a stretch to make the top 5.
    "There can BE only one."

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "if there is one thing mainstream America loves, it is flamboyantly gay space-aliens!" Evans
    Could happen. George Lucas made six Star Wars films with C-3PO, a flamboyantly gay space droid.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Highlander View Post
    I would not cut Godzilla. 22 Jump Street seems like a stretch to make the top 5.
    I'm not so sure. I know among my age group most people thought 21 Jump Street was more funny than the Hangover.

  7. #7
    This still feels sort of blah to me compared to 2015's epic year of restarting Star Wars/Jurassic Park/Terminator, an Avengers sequel, the Hunger Games conclusion, two more Marvel superhero movies, more installments of James Bond and Mission Impossible, another Pixar movie, and who knows what else. There have to be at least four movies in there that I'd put above anything in 2014, and that's even after I learned writing this post that Avatar and Independence Day got pushed back. Yeah, I know those aren't all summer movies.

    Is that NPH's first non-voiceover film role post-HIMYM?

    (Not that any of this helped)

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    ... Blended - Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore have made boxoffice magic before in 50 First Dates ($120 mil boxoffice in 2004) and The Wedding Singer ($80 mil in 1998). ...
    It would be interesting to see a graph of Sandler's box office numbers since 1998. Can the numbers possibly go negative? If we have a poll for LOWEST gross intake, I want to be the first to pick Sandler.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    It would be interesting to see a graph of Sandler's box office numbers since 1998. Can the numbers possibly go negative? If we have a poll for LOWEST gross intake, I want to be the first to pick Sandler.
    Courtesy of Box Office Mojo. Sandler movies almost always make money.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by NashvilleDevil View Post
    Courtesy of Box Office Mojo. Sandler movies almost always make money.
    Who would have guessed that Big Daddy was his highest grossing film?

    The absolute stinker That's My Boy outgrossed Billy Madison, and is about even with Happy Gilmore.

    Still can't believe so many people went to see Grown Ups II (or Jack and Jill), I think there will be some backlash.

    Sandler has never had a film that would compete for top 5.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    Who would have guessed that Big Daddy was his highest grossing film?

    The absolute stinker That's My Boy outgrossed Billy Madison, and is about even with Happy Gilmore.

    Still can't believe so many people went to see Grown Ups II (or Jack and Jill), I think there will be some backlash.

    Sandler has never had a film that would compete for top 5.
    Yeah, but I wouldn't be surprised if rentals/streaming and VHS/DVD sales for Happy Gilmore and Billy Madison absolutely crushed everything else.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Is that NPH's first non-voiceover film role post-HIMYM?
    I wish!! He inflicted this monstrosity upon us.


    -Jason "also worth noting that HIMYM is not done yet so we have not entered the post-HIMYM phase of his career" Evans
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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    Who would have guessed that Big Daddy was his highest grossing film?

    The absolute stinker That's My Boy outgrossed Billy Madison, and is about even with Happy Gilmore.

    Still can't believe so many people went to see Grown Ups II (or Jack and Jill), I think there will be some backlash.

    Sandler has never had a film that would compete for top 5.
    You need to adjust for inflation. Some of those better films from his catalog are a decade or two old and look much better from a boxoffice perspective when you factor in ticket inflation.

    -Jason "I do agree though that Sandler films have degraded to the point where he cannot compete for Top 5... his film will be removed" Evans
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  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    So if we need to cut 5, I would vote against Transcendence, Heaven is for Real, Godzilla, Blended, and Edge of Tomorrow.
    You have lost your mind if you think Godzilla is not a contender, perhaps a very strong one. The reviews and buzz would have to be terrible for it to make less than $125 mil or so.

    Zero percent chance Transcendence or Edge of Tomorrow get eliminated from our list too. Both are pretty much locks to make $100+ mil.

    -Jason "it looks like a weak summer for comedies, unless Neighbors or Million Ways to Die is really funny" Evans
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  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    You need to adjust for inflation. Some of those better films from his catalog are a decade or two old and look much better from a boxoffice perspective when you factor in ticket inflation.

    -Jason "I do agree though that Sandler films have degraded to the point where he cannot compete for Top 5... his film will be removed" Evans
    Shouldn't all movies be reported in "GwtW" dollars? Or would it make for some really ugly results for modern movies?

    -jk

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by luburch View Post
    I'm not so sure. I know among my age group most people thought 21 Jump Street was more funny than the Hangover.
    That probably doesn't matter. Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum have never starred in a movie that made $200M at the box office before. In fact, the only movie Jonah Hill has ever made that grossed over $200M was a children's movie where he provided a voice-over (How to Train your Dragon). Most of his big films end up in the $100-150M range. So the draw for his lovable loser style comedies is pretty well established IMO.

    Comparing 21 Jump Street to Hangover in terms of $ tells the story. Case in point:

    • 21 Jump Street made - $138,447,667
    • Hangover I and II made over $250,000,000 each.
    • Hangover 3 is the closest to 21 Jump Street at $112


    In other words, Hangover is in a diff zip code performance wise. Even with the strength of the first Hangover, the second one only did 10% more business. If we're trimming the list down, I think it's reasonable to drop this Jump Street. It could easily do $150-175M, but I don't see much more than that, and that won't be enough to crack the top 5.

    If you believe strongly in it, you can always write it in. I just don't see many people putting it in their top 5.

    I am hearing a lot of buzz about Godzilla. Not sure why; it doesn't really appeal to me in the least and the previous remake was bad. But I bet against Man of Steel on that premise and lost before.
    "There can BE only one."

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    Shouldn't all movies be reported in "GwtW" dollars? Or would it make for some really ugly results for modern movies?

    -jk
    Yeah, only Avatar is in the Top 25 (#14). Avengers pops up at 27.

    I like the # of tickets sold as a way to take inflation calculations out of the picture, but unfortunately in the link here they just back into the numbers via inflation, since I assume they don't have the hard data:
    http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adj...st_yr=1&p=.htm


    What would be even more interesting is seeing inflation-adjusted dollars normalized for population. I mean, not only are ticket prices much higher these days, but the pool of people to see a movie is much larger as well. Now, I realize as time has gone along more alternatives and options have popped up for people, but it would at least give you a sense of a movie's impact on the country.

    I would use GWTW as my primary example, but w/ numerous rereleases it's hard to get a weighted average population. Star Wars also had a re-release.
    So let's take Sound of Music:
    142 million tickets w/ a population of 194 million in 1965
    Avatar:
    97 million tickets w/ a population of 305 million in 2009

    So not only did it sell 1.46 as many tickets, but normalized for population it was 2.3 times more successful. Though Avatar probably had to work harder to capture people's willingness to go see it.

  18. #18
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    For people like Jason Evans who evaluate cinema solely in terms of how much money a movie makes, I offer this article from a magazine that only understands the entire breadth of human experience in terms of economics.

    http://www.economist.com/news/busine...iness-fighting

    The Economist explains how Lionsgate has broken into the financial elite of the movie business despite being founded just 17 years ago. I guess The Hunger Games is sort of the Tom Brady of the movie business. Impressive, in its way.

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  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    For people like Jason Evans who evaluate cinema solely in terms of how much money a movie makes...
    Dude, stop being a... well... you know.

    No one here acts like boxoffice is the "sole way to evaluate cinema." Heck, I think it would be kinda interesting to have a Rotten Tomatoes or Metacritic or perhaps Flixster rating contest to guess which films will be the top critical darlings of a season (perhaps limit it to films that get released in at least 500 theaters so it involves movies everyone has heard of and get a chance to see). But you insist again and again to put words in our mouths and pretend like money is all we care about in the film industry. It is untrue and not fair. And, I might add, I don't think anyone appreciates you doing it.

    Many of us come here to post reviews and comments about films where we know there will not be a big boxoffice story. We have discussions about awards races and what critics are saying about certain pictures. Your insistence on jumping into the boxoffice tracking threads to spit in our faces all the time is tiresome and not in the DBR's spirit. I am tired of it. That you continually target me with your unfair barbs is especially galling seeing as I am the one on here who gets paid (every now and then) to actually talk about films in a critical and artistic fashion and I probably see more movies than just about anyone else around these parts (I generally see around 100 movies in theaters a year).

    Bottom line -- I am sorry we all cannot be the cultural paragon of virtue that Throatybeard is. If only we had a cross we could hang you upon to make your martyrdom complete.

    As I look back, my post may seem more than a little bit harsh in light of your contribution to this thread. I think I bring too much baggage with me to this conversation because I have had to read your continuous bashing of anything boxoffice for soooo long, despite repeated level-headed attempts to educate you about the errors of your assumptions. So, as I write this, a piece of me thinks I should just delete it... I dunno. Maybe being cooped up at home with nothing to do is really bad for my temperament.

    -Jason "someone tell me if I went over the line... or maybe tell me how much I went over the line... sorry" Evans
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  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    For people like Jason Evans who evaluate cinema solely in terms of how much money a movie makes, I offer this article from a magazine that only understands the entire breadth of human experience in terms of economics.

    http://www.economist.com/news/busine...iness-fighting

    The Economist explains how Lionsgate has broken into the financial elite of the movie business despite being founded just 17 years ago. I guess The Hunger Games is sort of the Tom Brady of the movie business. Impressive, in its way.
    I don't think anyone here evaluates movies strictly in terms of dollars, but it is interesting to use it to gauge popularity. It also turns one-off movies into trilogies (The Hangover) and makes some movies that were slated for big things to crash out of people's memories (Eric Bana's Incredible Hulk). Popularity doesn't always translate to best, which is why blockbuster hits most times don't find themselves in the Best Picture category at the Oscars.
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