If I asked you to name the best 3 point shooting team in ACC play, how long would it have taken you to get to Florida State as the right answer? The Noles are hitting 3s at just about a 44% clip through 6 games, and that number is even more impressive when you consider that they started conference play 5-25 from downtown. Since then, all they've done is hit 37 of 71 threes over the past 4 games, not shooting below 38% from deep in any of them. That's blistering shooting. It's taken what otherwise would be an average offense and made it a good one - FSU is scoring 1.08 points per possession in conference play, and if they were only shooting at their season average from 3 (a still respectable, but not otherworldly, 37%) that number would drop all the way to 1.016.

So, is it sustainable? Can the Noles pull one more hot shooting performance in Cameron (a place that, for all its difficulty on road teams, is a very friendly shooting gym)? That may make the difference in whether or not the Noles can spring an upset. Because they'll need something to compensate for what almost assuredly will be a boatload of turnovers. FSU is one of the very worst teams in the country at holding on to the ball, turning it over more than 21% of the time, a number that has stayed relatively constant during ACC play. It's the worst figure in the conference. Duke overall hasn't been the turnover-forcing machine of years past, but in the (admittedly small sample size of) three games since the line change strategy rolled out, Duke's been forcing turnovers at almost exactly the rate that FSU turns the ball over. There's no reason to believe that won't continue on Saturday.

When Duke has the ball, Florida State is its usual, stingy self. They're big - no one shorter than 6'3", only three people shorter than 6'7", and for the vast majority of the game there will be either 7'1" or 7'3" holding down the middle. FSU is an excellent shot-blocking team and they hold down 2 point field goal percentage as a result. They harass the perimeter and force turnovers at a pretty good clip - Aaron Thomas and Devin Bookert in particular create a lot of steals. They've been unusually vulnerable to offensive rebounding for a big team, and while Bojanovsky and Ojo are tall, they're both slow as molasses - Amile Jefferson, eater of rebounds, can out-work and out-quick them to missed shots to create second opportunities. FSU has struggled in its last two games against Virginia and Notre Dame, two teams that spread you out and play 4-out, 1-in basketball. Duke can execute that kind of strategy well, too. Particularly at home, scoring shouldn't prove to be an obstacle overall for the Devils.

If the Noles stay hot from outside, I think the game stays pretty close. But if their recent run of hot shooting deserts them, I don't think they have enough fire power to keep up with Duke. Duke by 10. (knock on wood)