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  1. #1

    Marshall Plumlee

    It seems that Marshall is one of this year's biggest unsolved mysteries. Here are some thoughts that seem to have permeated the boards from time to time:

    A) He needs to play a fair amount and gain in-game experience if Duke wants any chance competing late in the season versus teams with frontcourt talent.

    B) He's not ready and doesn't give the team the best chance to win.

    C) Coach K plays the players that practice best.

    D) He's not one of his brothers or Brian Zoubek.

    E) He is Brian Zoubek.

    F) Coach K knows what he is doing and we shouldn't question that. He'll be ready to step up if and when needed.

    G) With the right matchups, Duke can make a run without needing him.

    H) Why not try to give him meaningful time even if it hurts the team in the short run?

    I) Amile, Jabari, and Josh can provide enough interior defense and rebounding.

    J) Semi?

    I am a big fan of MP3. However, I'm not sure if he can make a big difference or not. He's not where he needs to be in order to be a difference maker (at least from what we see of him during games). However, I'm not ruling out the possibility that he can meaningfully contribute.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
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    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by dukejunkie View Post
    It seems that Marshall is one of this year's biggest unsolved mysteries. Here are some thoughts that seem to have permeated the boards from time to time:

    A) He needs to play a fair amount and gain in-game experience if Duke wants any chance competing late in the season versus teams with frontcourt talent.

    B) He's not ready and doesn't give the team the best chance to win.

    C) Coach K plays the players that practice best.

    D) He's not one of his brothers or Brian Zoubek.

    E) He is Brian Zoubek.

    F) Coach K knows what he is doing and we shouldn't question that. He'll be ready to step up if and when needed.

    G) With the right matchups, Duke can make a run without needing him.

    H) Why not try to give him meaningful time even if it hurts the team in the short run?

    I) Amile, Jabari, and Josh can provide enough interior defense and rebounding.

    J) Semi?

    I am a big fan of MP3. However, I'm not sure if he can make a big difference or not. He's not where he needs to be in order to be a difference maker (at least from what we see of him during games). However, I'm not ruling out the possibility that he can meaningfully contribute.
    You left out K) Marshall should get most of Josh's minutes, lol.

  3. #3
    Also l) Players improve by getting minutes and playing through mistakes, but this only applies to certain players. Other players are what they are and can never improve regardless of how many minutes they play.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    Also l) Players improve by getting minutes and playing through mistakes, but this only applies to certain players. Other players are what they are and can never improve regardless of how many minutes they play.
    Amen! Wish I would've thought of that one. GoDuke!

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Mount Kisco, NY
    His two older brothers are currently rotation players in the NBA +
    K once said he was one of our top 5 players during the 2012/3 preseason +
    A formidable but not necessarily true narrative around our season is that we lack sufficient rebounding/shot blocking/ability to effectively guard 6'10" and above players +
    The aforementioned narrative is a frequently posited reason we won't make the Final Four +
    He's never really gotten an opportunity to 'show his stuff' in real games +
    It seems like when he gets his two first-half minutes every game that he does something "exciting" +
    He comes from that Matt Christensen school of wild gesticulation +
    He has a great personality and is a Duke Blue Planet star interviewer +
    Never has a college basketball player so resembled Hilary Swank

    =

    Aforementioned discussion tropes A through K

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    His two older brothers are currently rotation players in the NBA +
    K once said he was one of our top 5 players during the 2012/3 preseason +
    A formidable but not necessarily true narrative around our season is that we lack sufficient rebounding/shot blocking/ability to effectively guard 6'10" and above players +
    The aforementioned narrative is a frequently posited reason we won't make the Final Four +
    He's never really gotten an opportunity to 'show his stuff' in real games +
    It seems like when he gets his two first-half minutes every game that he does something "exciting" +
    He comes from that Matt Christensen school of wild gesticulation +
    He has a great personality and is a Duke Blue Planet star interviewer +
    Never has a college basketball player so resembled Hilary Swank

    =

    Aforementioned discussion tropes A through K

    Thanks Billy. I was hoping the thread would evolve this way!

  7. #7
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    Feb 2008
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    Lewisville, NC
    Just my opinion, but I don't see Marshall playing more than a few minutes a game:

    I'm sure Coach K and the staff want him to succeed -- this team sure as heck could use rebounding and interior defense, but they see him every day and aren't playing him much.
    Marshall can't seem to synchronize his movement with the pace of the game when he is in.
    Yeah, great pedigree, but Marshall never put up the numbers his brothers did in high school.
    I see some big kids like Miller from GaTech and Sherman from ND who are not great athletes but have developed skills and value to the team; so far, this hasn't happened with Marshall.
    At Duke, Marshall is 0-17 career on foul shots; yeah, small sample size, etc. but I have a hard time understanding that bad of a result.

    From the comments I see here and on devilsden, I'm probably in the minority as to his potential to help this team, but that's how I see it. It would certainly help the team for him to play effectively, even for short stretches.
    Last edited by roywhite; 01-08-2014 at 03:59 PM.

  8. #8
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    Feb 2007
    M) His arms so short, he has to tilt his head to scratch his ears.

  9. #9
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Just my opinion, but I don't see Marshall playing more than a few minutes a game:

    I'm sure Coach K and the staff want him to succeed -- this team sure as heck could use rebounding and interior defense, but they see him every day and aren't playing him much.
    Marshall can't seem to synchronize his movement with the pace of the game when he is in.
    Yeah, great pedigree, but Marshall never put up the numbers his brothers did in high school.
    I see some big kids like Miller from GaTech and Sherman from ND who are not great athletes but have developed skills and value to the team; so far, this hasn't happened with Marshall.
    At Duke, Marshall is 0-17 career on foul shots; yeah, small sample size, etc. but I have a hard time understanding that bad of a result.

    From the comments I see here and on devilsden, I'm probably in the minority as to his potential to help this team, but that's how I see it. It would certainly help the team for him to play effectively, even for short stretches.
    probabalistically speaking, marshall would have to be a 4% free throw shooter to make it likely to miss 17 straight

    for the record: here is the probability of missing 17 straight for a given free throw percentage:

    10% - 16% chance of missing 17 straight
    20% - 2% chance
    30% - .2% chance

    and it just goes down from there...needless to say, marshall is not a very good free throw shooter. I hope he is able to improve
    1200. DDMF.

  10. #10
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    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    probabalistically speaking, marshall would have to be a 4% free throw shooter to make it likely to miss 17 straight

    for the record: here is the probability of missing 17 straight for a given free throw percentage:

    10% - 16% chance of missing 17 straight
    20% - 2% chance
    30% - .2% chance

    and it just goes down from there...needless to say, marshall is not a very good free throw shooter. I hope he is able to improve
    If I'm not mistaken, his career is 0-15.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  11. #11
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    Mar 2011
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    Charlotte, NC
    I really like Marshall's progress. Early in the year, he'd damn near hyperventilate by walking on the court, but he's settled down quite nicely. I think the 15-20 mpg mark would be optimal for this year's success imo. He is a decent shot blocker and can alter shots. In very limited duty he has been an adequate post defender. Everyone on the team needs help on team and help defense, but that's a different story... He has also been adept at grabbing offensive boards and not trying to do too much.

    However, the biggest positive of playing Marshall is that it would mean time Jabari doesn't have to spend playing out of position and guarding the opposing team's big. I don't see how defending the opponent's big for large parts of the game - when that isn't your natural position - isn't going to take away from your offensive game. When analyzing Jabari's D, I think too many people forget that he's not a Center. He's a combo forward and the most offensively skilled player Duke's ever had. By playing Marshall, it will provide Duke with a post presence while freeing Jabari of playing out of position.

  12. #12
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    Feb 2007
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    Washington, D.C.

    In other words

    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    probabalistically speaking, marshall would have to be a 4% free throw shooter to make it likely to miss 17 straight

    for the record: here is the probability of missing 17 straight for a given free throw percentage:

    10% - 16% chance of missing 17 straight
    20% - 2% chance
    30% - .2% chance

    and it just goes down from there...needless to say, marshall is not a very good free throw shooter. I hope he is able to improve
    It's a small sample size, but even so he's a very poor free throw shooter.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    It's a small sample size, but even so he's a very poor free throw shooter.
    But his form isn't all that bad, but his results are terrible. GoDuke!

  14. #14
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    Atlanta, GA/Durham, NC
    Well the good news is that he's checking into more games. I'll take that as a positive.

    There was a time when Mason couldn't touch the ball without traveling. Ponder that b/c Marshall has a variation of that same thing that was driving us crazy with Mason.

  15. #15
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    Feb 2007
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    Chapel Hill
    But. I LOVE him! Bless his game-facing heart!

    Love, Ima

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Marshall can't seem to synchronize his movement with the pace of the game when he is in.
    Very well said. We have all heard great players in all sports talk about how the game will slow down when they are in the zone. Marshall seems to sometimes be subject to the opposite of that.

    I think at this point, we all must hope that he "is" Brian Zoubek. At some magical, unexpected, crucial moment, the light will go on and he will make a massive leap.

    Not sure that basketball programs get too many of those miracles. I will root for his success regardless!

    Go Marshall!
    Go Duke!

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by CajunDevil View Post
    I really like Marshall's progress. Early in the year, he'd damn near hyperventilate by walking on the court, but he's settled down quite nicely. I think the 15-20 mpg mark would be optimal for this year's success imo. He is a decent shot blocker and can alter shots. In very limited duty he has been an adequate post defender. Everyone on the team needs help on team and help defense, but that's a different story... He has also been adept at grabbing offensive boards and not trying to do too much.

    However, the biggest positive of playing Marshall is that it would mean time Jabari doesn't have to spend playing out of position and guarding the opposing team's big. I don't see how defending the opponent's big for large parts of the game - when that isn't your natural position - isn't going to take away from your offensive game. When analyzing Jabari's D, I think too many people forget that he's not a Center. He's a combo forward and the most offensively skilled player Duke's ever had. By playing Marshall, it will provide Duke with a post presence while freeing Jabari of playing out of position.
    Well, first of all, everyone around here is quick to mention the low sample size with regards to Marshall, and rightfully so, so talking about his offensive rebounding might not be fair. That said, he's been more than adept, he's been really good, with an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.9%. But if we're going to talk about that, we also might have to discuss his somewhat abysmal defensive rebounding in his limited minutes (8.4%, worse than both Quinn and Andre).

    For Marshall to get 15 to 20 minutes he'd have to displace one of: Quinn, Rodney, Jabari, Amile, Rasheed, Andre, or Tyler in the primary rotation. In every game that Josh got more than 13 minutes this season, either Andre or Rasheed got 8 or fewer minutes.

    Put another way, assuming 35 mpg for Quinn, 32 for Rodney, and 30 for Jabari (approximately what they've played so far), along with 65 combined for Rasheed + Andre + Tyler + Matt (again, approximately what they've been doing), plus 5 for Josh and none for Semi, then we have 33 minutes left for Amile and Marshall to split. If Amile plays 25, that leaves a maximum of 8 for Marshall. If the wings' minutes go up, that would leave even fewer minutes for the bigs. If Rodney and Jabari start playing 32 to 34 (as usually happens with Duke's best players as the year wears on, that would leave even fewer minutes for Marshall. So you may be right that 15 to 20 Marshall minutes may be optimal (though personally I doubt it), but it isn't very likely to happen.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by SupaDave View Post
    Well the good news is that he's checking into more games. I'll take that as a positive.

    There was a time when Mason couldn't touch the ball without traveling. Ponder that b/c Marshall has a variation of that same thing that was driving us crazy with Mason.
    SupaDave speaks from the light! Instead of the neggys, look to the positive signs. And wow, am I thrilled with Miles and Mason in the pros?! Lots of guys I speak with in the real world keep reminding me that hoops season is not a sprint but a marathon. And those same guys make me crazy but I grudgingly have to admit they are sometimes right...once in a while...sorta...but not to their faces.

  19. #19
    Plumlee has been adept at getting offensive boards, but unless I'm really confused about the lineups people are envisioning, playing him 20 minutes would likely hurt rebounding as a team, because, unless we are talking about a Cook-Hood-Parker-Jefferson-Plumlee lineup (which does not seem optimal to me at all, though I don't think Parker-at-SF is as bad as some people think), it seems like you'd very likely have to take away minutes from Jefferson. Since Jefferson isn't just a better rebounder than Plumlee, but is as of now the best rebounder in the conference, that seems to be a negative point for giving Plumlee lots of minutes.

  20. #20
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Well, first of all, everyone around here is quick to mention the low sample size with regards to Marshall, and rightfully so, so talking about his offensive rebounding might not be fair. That said, he's been more than adept, he's been really good, with an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.9%. But if we're going to talk about that, we also might have to discuss his somewhat abysmal defensive rebounding in his limited minutes (8.4%, worse than both Quinn and Andre).

    For Marshall to get 15 to 20 minutes he'd have to displace one of: Quinn, Rodney, Jabari, Amile, Rasheed, Andre, or Tyler in the primary rotation. In every game that Josh got more than 13 minutes this season, either Andre or Rasheed got 8 or fewer minutes.

    Put another way, assuming 35 mpg for Quinn, 32 for Rodney, and 30 for Jabari (approximately what they've played so far), along with 65 combined for Rasheed + Andre + Tyler + Matt (again, approximately what they've been doing), plus 5 for Josh and none for Semi, then we have 33 minutes left for Amile and Marshall to split. If Amile plays 25, that leaves a maximum of 8 for Marshall. If the wings' minutes go up, that would leave even fewer minutes for the bigs. If Rodney and Jabari start playing 32 to 34 (as usually happens with Duke's best players as the year wears on, that would leave even fewer minutes for Marshall. So you may be right that 15 to 20 Marshall minutes may be optimal (though personally I doubt it), but it isn't very likely to happen.
    Nice work, Kedsy. Well said.

    I would posit the following is our best-case scenario as a team (based on physical gifts and/or skill level):
    C: Jefferson/Plumlee 36 mpg; Parker 4 mpg (when we go really small with Hood at PF)
    PF: Parker/Jefferson/Hairston 40 mpg
    SF: Hood 30-35 mpg, Dawkins/Sulaimon/Jones 5-10 mpg
    SG: Sulaimon 25-30 mpg, Dawkins 5-10 mpg, Thornton/Jones 5 mpg
    PG: Cook 30-35 mpg, Thornton 5-10 mpg

    So I'd posit something like this per player:
    Parker (32)
    Hood (32)
    Cook (32)
    Sulaimon (28)
    Jefferson (24)
    Dawkins (18)
    Thornton (16)
    Plumlee (14)
    Hairston/Jones/Ojeleye (4)

    Of course, for that to be the best outcome, we'd need for Plumlee to really earn those minutes. Physically, he offers more than Hairston given his size and athleticism. And a guy with his size, if capable defensively, would be huge in terms of avoiding having Parker defend the post (where he is terrible).

    Now, I have no idea how close Plumlee is to being ready to provide that contribution. He may be there already. He may not be anywhere close. But my gut says that this breakdown (or something similar to it) is probably what represents our ceiling as a team.

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