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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Indianapolis, IN.
    If we can get three points from Ghana and one from Portugal then I like our chances.

  2. #22
    alteran is offline All-American, Honorable Mention
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham-- 2 miles from Cameron, baby!
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I think our path is clear.

    Beat Ghana in match 1 while Germany beats Portugal.
    Play for a tie against Portugal while Germany beats Ghana.
    Then, hope that a 2-0-0 Germany is perfectly happy to play for a tie against us as it sends them through as the #1 seed and us as the #2 seed from our group.

    -Jason "Playing Germany last, while Portugal plays them first, could be a very good thing" Evans
    I'm going to be an optimist here.

    If you're going to play Germany in group play, best to play them in the last match. They will likely have cinched and may be holding back their stars. We'll obviously be playing to survive, and if we're lucky they'll be playing to win, with a heavy dose of DON'T GET HURT. Stranger things have happened.

    Just don't mention the war.

    The draw didn't do us any favors, but I imagine if we would had to pick an order, this would have been it.

    --rob wildermann

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by duke23 View Post
    For a less Chicken-Little perspective, see the following.

    http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/16...ctions?cc=5901

    (Forgive the snark, but seriously, can we as a society please stop treating everything that ever occurs as "best ever", "worst ever", etc?? And people wonder why the country is so polarized...)
    Best post ever.

    Oh drat, I did it myself. ;>)

    But yeah, we have a tough road. It is what it is. Win the games you've got in front of you, no reason to worry about things outside your control.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston, MA
    I'm not sky is falling at all. I think if you took all the "Groups of Death" from the last 10 World Cups and compared them, we would be the "Group of Death" out of that bunch. That's how tough our group is.

    Here's the issue - Germany and Portugal are basically going to be playing for a tie as well. They are thinking, "just get through this game, and then we both beat the USA and Ghana and it doesn't matter." And if Portugal somehow manages to win, then we get a fired up Germany going against us in the 3rd game in a likely must win. Worst part is that our first round game becomes a must win for both us and Ghana, because if one of those two loses, they are almost certainly out.

    I think Ronaldo is going to shine this World Cup. He's taken a ton of heat over not scoring last WC, and he's been (by far) the best player on the planet for the past four years. I predict Portugal goes 3-0. Germany goes 2-1, and what we do against Ghana won't matter (but I predict we'll lose 2-1 or tie 1-1).

    The crummy thing, to me, is just how easy a draw Mexico and France got. The system is messed up when two teams that barely squeak in get put in groups where they are all but assured a trip to the next round. We should be in one of their groups, and they in ours - that would be fair given the qualifying. As it is, (as I said before) we have no chance.

    Certainly hope I'm wrong....

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Indianapolis, IN.
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    I'm not sky is falling at all. I think if you took all the "Groups of Death" from the last 10 World Cups and compared them, we would be the "Group of Death" out of that bunch. That's how tough our group is.

    Here's the issue - Germany and Portugal are basically going to be playing for a tie as well. They are thinking, "just get through this game, and then we both beat the USA and Ghana and it doesn't matter." And if Portugal somehow manages to win, then we get a fired up Germany going against us in the 3rd game in a likely must win. Worst part is that our first round game becomes a must win for both us and Ghana, because if one of those two loses, they are almost certainly out.

    I think Ronaldo is going to shine this World Cup. He's taken a ton of heat over not scoring last WC, and he's been (by far) the best player on the planet for the past four years. I predict Portugal goes 3-0. Germany goes 2-1, and what we do against Ghana won't matter (but I predict we'll lose 2-1 or tie 1-1).

    The crummy thing, to me, is just how easy a draw Mexico and France got. The system is messed up when two teams that barely squeak in get put in groups where they are all but assured a trip to the next round. We should be in one of their groups, and they in ours - that would be fair given the qualifying. As it is, (as I said before) we have no chance.

    Certainly hope I'm wrong....
    I'm sorry, but until this year Messi has been the better player.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston, MA
    OK...Messi has been outstanding, and you're probably right over the four year period. But Ronaldo has been a beast this year, and he's on the hook for how he did last World Cup (so is Messi, by the way). History has clearly shown that a superstar can carry a team, and we have nobody that could even come close to shutting him down if he's on.

    I'll admit, the best thing that could happen to us would be for Germany to beat Portugal and for us to beat Ghana. That happens and we at least have a chance. If Germany and Portugal tie, or if Portugal wins, we are in huge, huge trouble, needing a win over Ghana and likely a win over either Portugal or Germany.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC
    JG, I will see you in Natal! We got the toughest draw, IMO and we have by far the most travel of any team in the World Cup in the shortest time frame. We got the beach and we got the jungle. But, I couldn't be more excited for it all! I'll be at all the U.S. matches for at least the group stage and hopefully can make some side trips to some other matches as well.
    Check out the DBR Podcast!

    2003-2004 HLM
    Duke | Mirecourt | Detroit| The U | USA

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    I'm not sky is falling at all. I think if you took all the "Groups of Death" from the last 10 World Cups and compared them, we would be the "Group of Death" out of that bunch. That's how tough our group is.

    Here's the issue - Germany and Portugal are basically going to be playing for a tie as well. They are thinking, "just get through this game, and then we both beat the USA and Ghana and it doesn't matter." And if Portugal somehow manages to win, then we get a fired up Germany going against us in the 3rd game in a likely must win. Worst part is that our first round game becomes a must win for both us and Ghana, because if one of those two loses, they are almost certainly out.

    I think Ronaldo is going to shine this World Cup. He's taken a ton of heat over not scoring last WC, and he's been (by far) the best player on the planet for the past four years. I predict Portugal goes 3-0. Germany goes 2-1, and what we do against Ghana won't matter (but I predict we'll lose 2-1 or tie 1-1).

    The crummy thing, to me, is just how easy a draw Mexico and France got. The system is messed up when two teams that barely squeak in get put in groups where they are all but assured a trip to the next round. We should be in one of their groups, and they in ours - that would be fair given the qualifying. As it is, (as I said before) we have no chance.

    Certainly hope I'm wrong....
    In an earlier post, you said you hated the "random" draw procedure. Would you really trust a FIFA selection committee?

  9. #29
    If you believe the SPI rankings... this draw is only slightly worse than 50% as far as how bad things could have been.

    Again... it's the matter of being grouped in a bad pot. If we were in Group B, we would replace Australia, and then that would be one of the worst "group of deaths" ever.

    If we were in Group D it would be w/ Uruguay, England and Italy. No thanks there either.

    So we were in like the 3rd worst group for us. And I think 1 or 2 of the others would have been equally as bad.

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    I'll say it right now - we have no chance at all of making it to the 2nd round now. None.
    Would you say that it is...over?

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Sullivans Island, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by blazindw View Post
    JG, I will see you in Natal! We got the toughest draw, IMO and we have by far the most travel of any team in the World Cup in the shortest time frame. We got the beach and we got the jungle. But, I couldn't be more excited for it all! I'll be at all the U.S. matches for at least the group stage and hopefully can make some side trips to some other matches as well.
    Yea that would be cool to meet up. I imagine you'll be with the American Outlaws? Did you request tickets through them or how does that work? Do you know that you'll be sitting in the supporters section? It would be cool if I could organize sitting over there but I have a feeling it's out of my hands now. I've got category 1 tickets if that makes any difference.

    I actually have a house we're renting a little over an hour south of Natal in a town called Pipa (I'm with 7 friends) so I'm expecting a pretty big time. The only problem is that it's still a ways off haha.

  12. #32
    Salvador is the best city to see Carnival in according to my Brazilian friends(I was down there in 2002 for half the year and worked for a Brazilian company for several years). I'm curious how people feel about the cities the games will be in and the potential impact to crowds?

    I'm probably being petty in another thread.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Benjamin Torbert ‏@throatybeard

    After the World Cup draw, a vision came to me: Jrgen Klinsmann with his last few men, floating down the Amazon on a monkey-infested raft.
    ^ allow myself to quote... myself.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Whos gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnGalt View Post
    Yea that would be cool to meet up. I imagine you'll be with the American Outlaws? Did you request tickets through them or how does that work? Do you know that you'll be sitting in the supporters section? It would be cool if I could organize sitting over there but I have a feeling it's out of my hands now. I've got category 1 tickets if that makes any difference.

    I actually have a house we're renting a little over an hour south of Natal in a town called Pipa (I'm with 7 friends) so I'm expecting a pretty big time. The only problem is that it's still a ways off haha.
    I indeed will be on the AO plane. I haven't secured tickets yet but will request through US Soccer. I'm not sure how the process will work with where tickets are, but hopefully I will be in the main section (I too am going for Cat 1 tickets). Either way, I'm sure we will see each other in Natal!
    Check out the DBR Podcast!

    2003-2004 HLM
    Duke | Mirecourt | Detroit| The U | USA

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by blazindw View Post
    I indeed will be on the AO plane. I haven't secured tickets yet but will request through US Soccer. I'm not sure how the process will work with where tickets are, but hopefully I will be in the main section (I too am going for Cat 1 tickets). Either way, I'm sure we will see each other in Natal!
    You are an event attendance powerhouse, man!

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Whos gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Location
    The Northwest
    We got a very tough group. Not sure if I think it's worse than Group B. We have a stronger 4th team than they do, but I think they have a stronger 3rd team. There definitely are some much easier groups (E, F), but you take what you get.

    I'm just so excited for this summer and the chance to be a World Cup junkie again.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    History has clearly shown that a superstar can carry a team...
    That's all well and good, but the operative word here is "can." Messi has failed to carry his team in the WC thus far. Rooney likewise. The winner of the last three major titles has a bunch of stars but not the sort of trancendently talented striker you're talking about. And the superstar at hand here barely managed to get his team past Sweden and into the World Cup, denying another of Europe's superstars, Ibrahimovic, a berth. Whether that's all because the operative theory about teams with a superstar needs some parsing, or it's an indication that the rest of the Portugal squad just isn't all that good, I don't know, but I don't think it matters. They're a team that drew with Israel twice and Northern Ireland once this year in European qualifying. Their midfield from 2010 has almost completely turned over, and that was the secondary strength of the team.

    Anyway, I think we all remember the last time Portugal came into the World Cup riding the best player in the world. Didn't turn out so well, and if memory serves, we were one of the teams to beat them in the group stage. I guarantee no one in Lisbon was psyched when they drew the U.S. We'll be just the sort of team with a dangerous counterattack and solid (if unspectacular) midfield play that tempts them to play the way they did in the 2010 Cup, when they left Ronaldo unsupported in attack out of fear, and had no discernible personality in style of play. Or, if they do go aggressive, we'll be the sort of team that can punish them if they're not careful and/or don't take advantage of their opportunities. They've seen what Jozy and Donovan are capable of on the break, and it may dissuade them from exploiting our biggest weaknesses, contra Germany, who's never afraid to go after your weak links for fear of your offense. Portugal doesn't match up well with Germany, so there's a pretty decent chance we'll find ourselves in decent shape if we can just get a draw here, if we can take care of business against Ghana and then face Germany in a spot where a 0-0 tie is perfectly acceptable for them.

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Indianapolis, IN.
    At first I was pretty frustrated with the draw, but now after I've had some time to reflect on it, I like our chances. As Jason hinted at above, Portugal's back four leaves something to be desired. If we hold our shape, we should be able to hit them on the counter attack with success. Also Jozy provides great holdup play, for our other players to make some runs and test their line. I wouldn't be surprised to come away with three points, but I'd take one as well.

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by luburch View Post
    At first I was pretty frustrated with the draw, but now after I've had some time to reflect on it, I like our chances. As Jason hinted at above, Portugal's back four leaves something to be desired. If we hold our shape, we should be able to hit them on the counter attack with success. Also Jozy provides great holdup play, for our other players to make some runs and test their line. I wouldn't be surprised to come away with three points, but I'd take one as well.
    As others have said, the draw is bad, the travel is bad, but the schedule is good. Our path is so clear and it starts with a win over Ghana. Do that and then get draws in our next two and we are through, I'd wager. I do agree that 3 points against Portugal seems possible. I am just so happy that we get Germany in the last game of the group stage. I think that will serve us well as Germany may not have much motivation.

    -Jason "but we must get 3 versus Ghana... must" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  20. #40
    alteran is offline All-American, Honorable Mention
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham-- 2 miles from Cameron, baby!
    Submitted for entertainment value...

    World Cup Draw Truthing: because everything that doesn't go your way should have a conspiracy theory.

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