Page 1 of 45 12311 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 889
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    Deutschland ist Weltmeister!

    We can't just go on in the CONCACAF thread. This needs its own home!

    Ok, you've got an hour and a half... prediction time.

    Please, please, please let us get Belgium or Switzerland as our Pot 1 team. Please!! I actually think we would have a chance against those teams. I don't like our odds with any of the other pot 1 clubs.

    I would be pleased with either Cameroon or Algeria from Pot 2. Getting Chile or the Pot 4 spillover or Ivory Coast would be unfortunate.

    Pot 4 contains no good news, but I would not frown with Croatia in our group. I could live with BH or Russia too. England would be a fun match. But, we will likely be in the "Group of Death" if we get Italy, Portugal, Netherlands, or France. Cross your fingers on that!

    With the Pot 4 spillover, I suppose it is possible for a group to contain Spain, USA, Portugal, and Italy isn't it? That would be absurd -- but it could happen, right? Ugh...

    -Jason "a good draw can make all the difference" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  2. #2
    Stealing some analysis from another forum I frequent...

    There are 720 possible groups for the USA to be drawn in. (70 of them are the duplicate groups, just with the Euro teams switching whether they came from pot 2 or 4).

    (4 SA * 5 Africa * 9 Europeans + 4 SA * 9 Europeans * 8 Europeans + 4 Europeans * 7 pot 2 * 9 Europeans)

    According to average ESPN's SPI, the 5 hardest groups the USA can be drawn into are:

    ESP, CHI, FRA (86.93)
    GER, CHI, FRI (86.67)
    ESP, CHI, NED (86.6)
    BRA, FRA, NED (86.43)
    GER, CHI, NED (86.33)

    The 5 easiest groups are:

    SUI, ALG, CRO (71.20)
    SUI, ALG, GRE (72,06)
    BEL, ALG, CRO (72.23)
    SUI, ALG, POR (72.80)
    SUI, ALG, RUS (72.80)


    Again using SPI:

    There are 10 groups (out of the 650 unique) where the US is the highest ranked team. (SUI + African team + GRE or CRO).

    113 groups where the US is the 2nd best team.

    350 groups where the US is the 3rd best team.

    177 groups where the US is the 4th best team.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    With the Pot 4 spillover, I suppose it is possible for a group to contain Spain, USA, Portugal, and Italy isn't it? That would be absurd -- but it could happen, right? Ugh...
    You can't get 3 european teams in the same group actually. The european team pulled out of pot 4 (into pot 2) will be paired w/ 1 of the south american teams from pot 1 in order to avoid 3 european teams being in the same group.

    That's why all the "worst groups" I listed include either Chile or Brazil.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by InSpades View Post
    Again using SPI:

    There are 10 groups (out of the 650 unique) where the US is the highest ranked team. (SUI + African team + GRE or CRO).

    113 groups where the US is the 2nd best team.

    350 groups where the US is the 3rd best team.

    177 groups where the US is the 4th best team.
    That is a truly fascinating analysis and help to point out how truly lucky we will have to be in order to be expected to make it out of the group stage.

    US best = 1.5% chance
    2nd best = 17.3% chance
    3rd best = 53.8% chance
    4th best = 27.2& chance

    Worth noting that the US is rated lower in the ESPN rankings (#17) than in the FIFA rankings (#14). It is not a big difference but probably greatly affects the chance we will be 3rd versus 2nd because so many of the Pot 4 teams are bunched around us in the rankings. I best our 2nd best percentage goes up at least 15 points if you used FIFA rankings instead.

    -Jason "ten minutes to go... and then the real analysis can begin!" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Baltimore
    If we are lucky enough to get a team like Algeria, and beat them like we should, a draw against one of the other two teams should be enough to get us to the group stage. And there are many teams in pot 4 that we can bunker down and draw with. That would be a success in my book.

  6. #6

    I'd take a traditional European power...

    over Brazil or Argentina. Even if it's Spain. Given the history of European play in the Americas, I'd also rather have Germany than the hosts or Messi, and probably about equal with Colombia and Uruguay. Clearly with Jason on the hopes for Switzerland or Belgium, though.

    We're almost certain to be in a Group of Death by necessity, due to our high ranking and our spot in the same pot with Asia, unless we get a really weak African team. We're assured of a seeded team, another European team likely to be in the top 15 or 18 in ranking, and ourselves, ranked 14th. After the year we've had and the team's trajectory, though, I think it's different this time, in that we'll be arguably the 2 seed in our group. If it's Italy, the Dutch or France, their names and history push us to third and we'll be the underdogs, I guess.

    I read that the average ranking of qualified teams this year was like 6 spots lower than 2010. Some of that is the difference between South Africa and Brazil, of course. But overall, it's just a really strong field, so there will likely be multiple groups whose inhabitants come out of today thinking "Man, that's a brutal draw. We're in the Group of Death!"

  7. #7

    Ugh

    We're hosed if France or England.

    ETA - nope, not too bad.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Germany (very tough), Portugal (very tough), and Ghana (not so terrible but certainly not easy).

    Congrats USA... you got the Group of Death. Sigh...

    -Jason
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Germany (very tough), Portugal (very tough), and Ghana (not so terrible but certainly not easy).

    Congrats USA... you got the Group of Death. Sigh...

    -Jason
    Well, one of them. Group B's even more brutal. I'm not scared of Portugal despite their ranking, and we should have revenge on our minds and go destroy Ghana. Of the seeded teams, Germany would have been 5th on my list if we could choose, and of the Pot 4 teams Portugal would probably have been ahead of Italy, France or the Dutch. And I guarantee those two teams had us No. 8 on their list of desired Pot 3 squads.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Wow, how easy is Group H?!?! Belgium, Algeria, Russia, and Korea?!?! Are you kidding me?!?! USA would be the best team in the group. ARGH!!

    Groups C and F also seem somewhat easy.

    -Jason "ugh, can't believe we got Portugal, who probably should have been a Pot 1 seed... grrr" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  11. #11
    Definitely not a good draw, but not the worst either. Do we always seem to be in a group w/ Ghana?

    France was given an absolute gift draw.

    I think part of the problem was we were in the pot w/ most of the worst teams. Oh well. Gonna be tough but we can do it!

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Sullivans Island, SC
    Natal Mexico vs Cameroon
    Recife Ivory Coast vs Japan
    Natal Ghana vs USA
    Natal Japan vs Greece
    Fortaleza Germany vs Ghana

    Welp, so this is how it worked out for me. Grabbing that USA/Ghana match and the chance to cheer AGAINST Ghana when they play Germany make the other [pretty disappointing] draws worth it.

  13. #13

    Off topic, but

    could ESPN's soccer site be worse? Pathetic.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post
    Group B's even more brutal.
    Spain (#3 ESPN, #1 FIFA), Netherlands (#9, #9), Chile (#5, #15), and Australia (#53, #59). That is a nightmare of a group. The Socceroos are quite badly outmatched.

    You are correct that it is probably harder than Germany (#4, #2) Portugal (#16, #5), USA (#17, #14), and Ghana (#24, #24), though not much harder. I think the fact that Ghana is actually capable of being competitive with the top 3 may make for more drama in this group versus the poor Aussies who will just be overwhelmed, I suspect.

    -Jason "gonna be a great tourney, that's for sure!" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    the poor Aussies who will just be overwhelmed, I suspect.
    Yes, poor Aussie, indeed. They're gonna look like North Korea last time around, I fear.

    The gap between FIFA ranking and ESPN's for Portugal is fairly mindboggling. They barely made it into the draw from a poor qualifying group, needing a playoff against Sweden due to an inability to get W's against Northern Ireland and Israel (twice), and haven't otherwise beaten a relevant team in the past 18 months. So FIFA must be putting a lot of weight behind their making the Euro semi's last year.

    Ronaldo's great, and our defense is our weakness, so that will be a tactical nightmare for Klinsmann, but I trust him to figure out how to neutralize Ronaldo more than I would have Bradley, so there's that. And if anyone should be able to find and probe the weaknesses of Germany's squad, it would be our coach, so that helps, too. Basically, we have to beat Ghana, salvage a tie with one of the European teams, and hope for Ghana to play good defense in their games against Portugal and Germany us to help with goal differential. It should help (I think) that Germany and Portugal play each other first, so we'll know what we have to do against whom.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Spain (#3 ESPN, #1 FIFA), Netherlands (#9, #9), Chile (#5, #15), and Australia (#53, #59). That is a nightmare of a group. The Socceroos are quite badly outmatched.

    You are correct that it is probably harder than Germany (#4, #2) Portugal (#16, #5), USA (#17, #14), and Ghana (#24, #24), though not much harder. I think the fact that Ghana is actually capable of being competitive with the top 3 may make for more drama in this group versus the poor Aussies who will just be overwhelmed, I suspect.

    -Jason "gonna be a great tourney, that's for sure!" Evans
    The thing to remember is that Group B and Group G may be currently at the same level, but if we were in Group B, we'd be replacing Australia. Obviously that would be horrendous compared to our current position. I think replacing Costa Rica in Group D (Uruguay-England-Italy) would also be worse. Certainly replacing South Korea in Group H would have been ideal, but this isn't half bad. It's the "Group of Death" BECAUSE we're in it - Group B is a "Group of Death" DESPITE our absence.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Yep - we got absolutely hosed. All the talk about Group B maybe being harder is nuts. Ours is (in my opinion) by far the toughest pod. We have Germany - a clear favorite to make the semi-finals or finals. We have Portugal, who only has the best player in the world on their team. We have Ghana - who made it to the round of 8 last time by beating us, and should have made the semi-finals had it not been for the blatant red card hand ball that was done in the last minute (and then the guy missed the penalty shot). I mean...it's just as awful as it could be for us.

    People say this all the time, but the ping pong balls just seems completely unfair. I mean look at Mexico. They BARELY squeaked into the World Cup, and they get Brazil, Croatia and Cameroon. Basically they get a cake walk to the round of 16. Same thing with France, that barely made it in, and gets Switzerland, Ecuador and Honduras. They are a lock for the round of 16. So two teams that barely, barely, barely got it get the luck of the draw and will almost certainly make it to the 2nd round, while USA, which won our grouping, ends up with a horrific draw. We get no bonus at all for being the best qualifier. And don't get me started on Group F. This might be the easiest group in the history of the World Cup. Argentina basically has a bye to the 2nd round. Totally sucks.

    I'll say it right now - we have no chance at all of making it to the 2nd round now. None.

    And if I were ranking the Pods I would say

    1) Group G. Our Group

    By far toughest

    2) Group D. Uruguay, Costa Rica, England, Italy

    Next level
    3) Group B. Spain, Netherlands, Chile, Australia
    4) Group C. Columbia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan
    5) Group H. Belgium, Russia, Algeria, South Korea

    These two aren't brutal, but at least have 3 teams that could compete

    6) Group A Brazil, Mexico, Croatia, Camerooon
    6) Tied Group E Switzerland, France, Ecuador, Honduras

    Two teams locked into the next round

    8) Group F Argentina, Bosnia, Iran, Nigeria.

    Total joke of a group. Awful.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    I think our path is clear.

    Beat Ghana in match 1 while Germany beats Portugal.
    Play for a tie against Portugal while Germany beats Ghana.
    Then, hope that a 2-0-0 Germany is perfectly happy to play for a tie against us as it sends them through as the #1 seed and us as the #2 seed from our group.

    -Jason "Playing Germany last, while Portugal plays them first, could be a very good thing" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Sullivans Island, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post

    I'll say it right now - we have no chance at all of making it to the 2nd round now. None.
    We did get hosed, but how do you figure we have zero chance? It took a herculean effort from Cristiano to make it past Sweden of all teams just to qualify. There are many people that think he'll win the balon d'or because of that performance. And even though its Cristiano, that's not likely to happen internationally again. Sure, defense is our ongoing issue but I'm confident Klinsmann will adjust to at the very least contain Cristiano. I'm all for shelling or doing whatever it takes to get that draw...soccer purity be damned. But as Jason illustrates, we got a tough group but a good draw within the group. The schedule is rather favorable although beating Ghana in the first match is ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    I'll say it right now - we have no chance at all of making it to the 2nd round now. None.
    For a less Chicken-Little perspective, see the following.

    http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/16...ctions?cc=5901

    (Forgive the snark, but seriously, can we as a society please stop treating everything that ever occurs as "best ever", "worst ever", etc?? And people wonder why the country is so polarized...)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •