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  1. #2561
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Albemarle, North Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    You really canít transfer your money in 30 seconds. What you can transfer is a promiseÖcreditÖ from your chosen institution to another.

    It would likely take about a month to reach final settlement between institutions, assuming they agree to the transfer of your funds, which they usually donít have on hand when you request them due to fractional reserve banking policies.

    And at any time your bank could simply deny you the ability to transfer your own money.

    Bitcoin final settlement is about 10 minutes. Instant if using Lightning. No intermediaries.

    ETA, I just checked. If I had them, I could send you 1000 BTC worth about 70 million dollars for a network fee of $2.37 cents.
    So BTC created a solution for a problem that doesnít exist and tries to justify its use based on ???Ö. People who donít understand government or monetary value seem to make it up as they go.
    "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge" -Stephen Hawking

  2. #2562
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    1) Uh no. Thatís not how wire transfers and clearinghouses work. And thatís not how fractional banking works either. This would be done at the Federal Reserve level. On a smaller level FedACH is now instant. Thatís faster than any blockchain transaction.

    2) Why do you think some government/institution is coming for your money? And I am being totally serious here. FDR seizing gold is probably the only thing that would be close in the last 100+ years and people were compensated.
    The FBI has my fingerprints because I'm a naturalized citizen. The IRS also has my fingerprints because I had a business that made large cash deposits. Never, for an instant, did I ever worry about them taking my money. Never ever have I thought the banks would limit access to my money. Never ever have I had a problem getting access to my money with over 15 different banks (personal and business) over 40 decades. This is some bogyman fantasy to incite FOMO.

    3) Lightning is the intermediary. The nodes are the intermediates and even the miners are intermediaries. Itís not magic. Clicking doesn't transport funds through the ether. There are a number of hands on each transaction. If using Lightning potentially even more.

    4) A block is written every 12 minutes give or take. A transaction can take hours or a day (depending on the network) to go through. You have zero priority. Nothing is official until it's written. That Lightning transition might look instant but it's not. It's not good until it's writing on the blockchain which is not instant. That talking point is a lie. It gets done when it gets done. As for the fees they are always unknown until after the transaction is written to the block. In the future, clogging up the network or slowing it down is a ripe attack vector for shady miners to increase the transaction fees especially when rewards are gone or mining too expensive.

    I've read every link you've provided. Not a single one talks about using BTC just holding it in the belief (hope?) that it goes up for suspect reasons. Because something is relatively rare doesn't mean it's valuable.
    Over 40 decades - man, you're old!

    Great points. Totally agree. Unfortunately, rational, informed arguments like yours don't get through. I find it ironic that those who are "afraid" of the government are those who are now trying to take what was a very stable government and destroy it. If you don't like it, leave it alone. Create your own country and use bitcoin or whatever as the currency. Don't yuck my yum.

  3. #2563
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    Over 40 decades - man, you're old!
    Iím Hindu.

    Putting in to be an American pet for the next cycle.

  4. #2564
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Iím Hindu.

    Putting in to be an American pet for the next cycle.
    Dharma is hard to obtain here. The waters are far from still.

  5. #2565
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Boca Grande Florida
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    1) Uh no. That’s not how wire transfers and clearinghouses work. And that’s not how fractional banking works either. This would be done at the Federal Reserve level. On a smaller level FedACH is now instant. That’s faster than any blockchain transaction.

    2) Why do you think some government/institution is coming for your money? And I am being totally serious here. FDR seizing gold is probably the only thing that would be close in the last 100+ years and people were compensated.
    The FBI has my fingerprints because I'm a naturalized citizen. The IRS also has my fingerprints because I had a business that made large cash deposits. Never, for an instant, did I ever worry about them taking my money. Never ever have I thought the banks would limit access to my money. Never ever have I had a problem getting access to my money with over 15 different banks (personal and business) over 4 decades. This is some bogyman fantasy to incite FOMO.

    3) Lightning is the intermediary. The nodes are the intermediates and even the miners are intermediaries. It’s not magic. Clicking doesn't transport funds through the ether. There are a number of hands on each transaction. If using Lightning potentially even more.

    4) A block is written every 12 minutes give or take. A transaction can take hours or a day (depending on the network) to go through. You have zero priority. Nothing is official until it's written. That Lightning transition might look instant but it's not. It's not good until it's writing on the blockchain which is not instant. That talking point is a lie. It gets done when it gets done. As for the fees they are always unknown until after the transaction is written to the block. In the future, clogging up the network or slowing it down is a ripe attack vector for shady miners to increase the transaction fees especially when rewards are gone or mining too expensive.

    I've read every link you've provided. Not a single one talks about using BTC just holding it in the belief (hope?) that it goes up for suspect reasons. Because something is relatively rare doesn't mean it's valuable.
    US banks do not have most of your money, they’ve loaned it out using fractional reserve banking policies. You are trusting that they won’t overextend themselves loaning out your money and collapse on bad investments, which they do all the time. But you’re probably ok, since at least in the U.S. the Fed will bail them out by printing/counterfeiting more money for them and replace their losses. Your money will then become less valuable, but at least you’ll get back the amount you put in.

    Maybe I’m too cautious, but I want to hold assets, not leave my money in banks. Bitcoin is one of my assets of choice. You do you.

    In many countries around the world, banks are much less secure than the U.S. banking system and bitcoin is giving people a more secure option to store value.

    When I buy BTC and send my Bitcoin from my exchange to my cold storage wallet, it takes about ten minutes to confirm. Once it’s on my wallet. It’s mine, settled by the network and cannot be moved or controlled by anyone else. I find value and comfort in that.

    No one talks about using BTC? You must have missed the video I linked above where there is an in depth discussion on the current and future use of the Lightning network at the Bitcoin for corporations conference.

  6. #2566
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Boca Grande Florida
    I don’t post much about my substantial Ethereum investment, but things are starting to look good on that front.

    The SEC has pivoted on its likelihood of approving an Ethereum spot ETF and its now considered likely to be approved, maybe next week.

    That led to a 25% + gain this week. Sweet!

    The SEC change of heart seems to be related on some level to politics, of course. The current administration was being painted as “anti crypto” and it was hurting them with the youth vote. So there was a change of strategy. (My opinion).

    But it might just be that the SEC see’s the writing on the wall from a pending law suit by Consensys against the SEC over approval of an ETH spot ETF.

    It appears the courts are likely to overrule the regulators denial of ETH ETF’s, like they did with creating a path for BTC ETF’s, so they are capitulating.

  7. #2567
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    You really canít transfer your money in 30 seconds. What you can transfer is a promiseÖcreditÖ from your chosen institution to another.

    It would likely take about a month to reach final settlement between institutions, assuming they agree to the transfer of your funds, which they usually donít have on hand when you request them due to fractional reserve banking policies.

    And at any time your bank could simply deny you the ability to transfer your own money.
    I challenge all three statements. Please explain, in detail, exactly what you believe.

    1. Money moves quickly from FI to FI.
    2. Nobody marks dollars. WTF?
    3. FIs cannot get wires and Cashiers Checks back.

  8. #2568
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    US banks do not have most of your money, theyíve loaned it out using fractional reserve banking policies. You are trusting that they wonít overextend themselves loaning out your money and collapse on bad investments, which they do all the time. But youíre probably ok, since at least in the U.S. the Fed will bail them out by printing/counterfeiting more money for them and replace their losses. Your money will then become less valuable, but at least youíll get back the amount you put in.
    The perils of partial knowledge.

    A partial knowledge of the banking system to justify a position is not a good way to make a point. Banks have several methods to cover themselves. First they can borrow from other banks. Second they can always go to the Fed window to borrow funds. These are daily events not one offs. Interbank leaning and the lender of last resort are exactly what maintains liquidity. Even going to the Fed window is no longer considered taboo. BTC doesnít have this which makes it a terrible place to lock up money. In times of trouble there is nothing to provide liquidity when the market collapses. You canít believe what a YouTube video promoting something says because itís leaving out most of the information. Itís asymmetric information to make you believe something without giving all the information. Combatting that is my general purpose in this thread.

    Also, no banks donít collapse all the time. It takes a massive economic event or human induced panic most of the time. Thereís been a total of 5 in the last four year and two were because of rumor mongering from the tech bro circles creating self fulfilling prophecies.
    Last edited by Kdogg; 05-22-2024 at 02:24 AM.

  9. #2569
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Also, no banks donít collapse all the time. It takes a massive economic event or human induced panic most of the time. Thereís been a total of 5 in the last four year and two were because of rumor mongering from the tech bro circles creating self fulfilling prophecies.
    Ö. and, those same players could, and definitely would, do the same to Bitcoin. Attacking an unregulated currency is much easier than attacking a USA insured financial institution!

  10. #2570
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Doesn’t the IRS treat transfers of Bitcoin as a taxable event, in which you would have to declare your short-term and long-term gain/loss?

    Of course, I am sure that everyone using crypto for purchases is also paying taxes as required. Because, legal and all.

    That seems a whole lot more cumbersome than transferring cash income tax-free. I don’t need a spreadsheet at the Piggly-Wiggly check-out line.

  11. #2571
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Doesn’t the IRS treat transfers of Bitcoin as a taxable event, in which you would have to declare your short-term and long-term gain/loss?

    Of course, I am sure that everyone using crypto for purchases is also paying taxes as required. Because, legal and all.

    That seems a whole lot more cumbersome than transferring cash income tax-free. I don’t need a spreadsheet at the Piggly-Wiggly check-out line.
    I'm sure people using this will be paying their taxes. This is an avenue for abuse and dodging our already weak campaign donation rules.

    Donald Trump Says He'll Take Bitcoin, Ether, Dogecoin, And Other Cryptocurrencies for Campaign Donations

  12. #2572
    Could I arrange to get an alert when y'all come to an agreement?

  13. #2573
    Iím going to echo posts from awhile back in saying that I really hope this thread is allowed to continue. I donít post in it often because I donít have the knowledge but I come here all the time and learn a ton of new information.

  14. #2574
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    Could I arrange to get an alert when y'all come to an agreement?
    I think we all agree that you can make or lose considerable money on Bitcoin/Crypto like any investment vehicle.

    The divergence is whether the whole thing is a house of cards with unsustainable fundamentals or some paradigm shifting development that will usher a new financial world order. The third option would be it becomes a zombie product that's kept alive by the sheer willpower of acolytes. That's pretty much the three potential endgame scenarios.

    I'm just waiting for the AI companies to start relocating data centers to suck away all that cheap power that miners are using. That's the next battle.

  15. #2575
    I didn't see this posted anywhere, but brothers that went to MIT are accused of stealing $25 million of crypto by exploiting a loophole in the code to fulfill a transaction. It took 12 seconds to complete the heist.

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/16/inves...ack/index.html

  16. #2576
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    I think we all agree that you can make or lose considerable money on Bitcoin/Crypto like any investment vehicle.

    The divergence is whether the whole thing is a house of cards with unsustainable fundamentals or some paradigm shifting development that will usher a new financial world order. The third option would be it becomes a zombie product that's kept alive by the sheer willpower of acolytes. That's pretty much the three potential endgame scenarios.

    I'm just waiting for the AI companies to start relocating data centers to suck away all that cheap power that miners are using. That's the next battle.
    I am incredibly skeptical about crypto and think it is largely a ponzi scheme. That being said, I could see an end game of it being like art. I don't think it is likely but it is possible. People buy and sell art based on some not clearly defined criteria of what is great art. I know enough to be dangerous about art but can't tell you why people are paying a fortune for Pollack or Mondrian, whose art I feel like I could pretty easily replicate when I generally draw stick figures. For many wealthy people, art is used to "store value." Obviously, art has been around for hundreds of years so it is a more sustainable market. But those who believe in crypto I guess are hoping for the same thing.

    On the power note, which I think is very relevant here even though many crypto advocates deny it. I saw an interesting article (see below) about Google locating a $1 billion data center in Finland because it is able to use very environmentally friendly power sources there. Similarly, through my work I have learned about some crypto miners and data centers that have located near hydro power areas, though I think this is largely because it is cheaper for now, not because they care about being environmentally friendly. As we become more and more reliant on energy for technology to support data centers, AI, crypto and everything else, the sources of this energy become even more important.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/googl...103000838.html

  17. #2577
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    On the power note, which I think is very relevant here even though many crypto advocates deny it. I saw an interesting article (see below) about Google locating a $1 billion data center in Finland because it is able to use very environmentally friendly power sources there. Similarly, through my work I have learned about some crypto miners and data centers that have located near hydro power areas, though I think this is largely because it is cheaper for now, not because they care about being environmentally friendly. As we become more and more reliant on energy for technology to support data centers, AI, crypto and everything else, the sources of this energy become even more important.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/googl...103000838.html
    Finland not only provides renewal energy because it's generally cold/colder but companies will also save on cooling costs. They might even be able to mine the heat. Data center location is usual a exercise in compromise. Ideally you want a cold, dry place with access to cheap power and cheap water. Usually you can get two and sometimes three. If climate change continues we are going to see water wars in Arizona between tech companies and people.

  18. #2578
    What happens in the crypto-world if and when we finally develop a source of cheap inexaustible power? What are the effects on crypto mining, bitcoin value, etc.? Based on recent breakthroughs in fusion and other technologies I could easily see this happening in the next 20 - 30 years.

  19. #2579
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Dur'm
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    What happens in the crypto-world if and when we finally develop a source of cheap inexaustible power?
    There is no such thing. Energy will always have value, and lowering its cost will just increase its use. This is known as the Jevons paradox. Although technically not a paradox, it's a pretty well-known phenomenon. It applies even when the source of energy remains the same, but uses become more efficient. The total use increases as increased efficiency lowers the cost of the energy. But of course, the same effect applies if the supply of easily available energy increases (which also lowers the cost). Energy use always yields a payoff, so there's just no such thing as "cheap, inexhaustible power".

  20. #2580
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    What happens in the crypto-world if and when we finally develop a source of cheap inexaustible power? What are the effects on crypto mining, bitcoin value, etc.? Based on recent breakthroughs in fusion and other technologies I could easily see this happening in the next 20 - 30 years.

    Scenario 1) One barrier to entry is removed. Retired equipment gets put back online after sitting around collecting dust. (Remember a BTC miner can't be repurposed for anything else except a space heater). New miners rush in driving the hash rate up and the transaction fee down. Only the most efficient will survive especially in a post reward world. Price is whatever because it's based on faith anyway.
    If you subscribe to the Michael Saylor "bitcoin is energy" crackpot theory it should go down but I'm sure he will pivot to a different tune. All those people that think high energy cost is good for BTC will have to reevaluate the broken premises.

    Scenario 2) One barrier to entry is removed making it cheaper and easier for 51% attack on the network to take control of it. BTC is at the mercy of the new overlord. Users could be barred from accessing their own hard earned money. No government to come and save the day. BTC can't be priced by the market because there are no trades so it goes to zero.

    Scenario 3) The encryption has long been broken before we get to the energy utopia and it's already at zero.

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