MLB Hot Stove League 2013-2014

[throatybeard]

Austerity now!

Insanity later.

[Olympic Fan]

Just reported...Ellsbury to Yanks. 7/153M. Wow....

I really dislike this deal. Ellsbury is a nice player, but he's fragile and I doubt we get value over 7 years (I really think if you get five top-flight years, it's a good deal, but I think we'll be lucky to get 2-3 top years and 2-3 partial years).

Plus, he doesn't really address our needs. Adding a top-flight outfielder is nice, but we really need help at second and third, plus at least two strong additions to the starting rotation.

I can't believe they can offer this deal to an often-injured outfielder, when it's almost exactly what they have been offering Cano -- a more durable player who plays a position of need. If Ellsbury is worth $153M over seven years (he's not), then Cano might be work $300 million over 10 years (he's not either).

I was told tonight that even with Ellsbury, the Yankee payroll for next year is now at $140 million, giving them $49 million more to spend for next year and still make the long-ballyhooed $189 ceiling for next year. I don't know if that includes the $25 million they'll get back from A-Roid if he's suspended for the season. Well, even $49 million sounds like a lot (and it's more than the total payroll of about 10-11 teams), but not of you have to fill holes at second base, third base and two spots in the rotation with free agents.

PS -- Love the Seinfield reference. I'll be using that: "Austerity now ... insanity later."

[jjasper0729]

I really dislike this deal. Ellsbury is a nice player, but he's fragile and I doubt we get value over 7 years (I really think if you get five top-flight years, it's a good deal, but I think we'll be lucky to get 2-3 top years and 2-3 partial years).

Plus, he doesn't really address our needs. Adding a top-flight outfielder is nice, but we really need help at second and third, plus at least two strong additions to the starting rotation.

That definitely seems to be the consensus on this deal. I for one would have liked the Red Sox to have kept him, maybe for 5 years (which would seem about right). We did get Pre...zinsky (I'll have to learn how to spell that one) for a year. I've been reading that this is a good deal and we let Salty walk to Miami. Now we need some infield depth (I presume Bogaerts and Middlebrooks on the left side), a first baseman (haven't resigned Nap yet... hmmm...) and a center fielder. I know there is talk about Victorino moving to center and finding another right fielder and that may have to be an option, but we will also need a lead off hitter as well. Bradley, Jr played well in spring training but then fell not quitelike a ton of bricks once the season started and he was on the big league roster. I also don't know if keeping him there will hurt trying to keep him long term rather than stash him like other teams did with everyone else.

[Blue in the Face]

I was told tonight that even with Ellsbury, the Yankee payroll for next year is now at $140 million, giving them $49 million more to spend for next year and still make the long-ballyhooed $189 ceiling for next year. I don't know if that includes the $25 million they'll get back from A-Roid if he's suspended for the season.

That's not a very meaningful number, because it only includes the 10 players currently under contract for next season. So it does include A-Rod's salary, of which they'll get a chunk, and possibly all, back, but it excludes not only the holes left to fill, but players who simply aren't signed for next year like Gardner, Robertson, Nova, etc... Those guys obviously aren't in line for huge contracts, but Gardner and Robertson will each get some real money (they combined for about $6MM last year), and in aggregate it will eat up a decent chunk of the shortfall from $189.

[Dev11]

Any word on whether the Tigers are interested in giving up Verlander for a half-eaten turkey sandwich?

Looks like the Nationals are going to go back-to-back in Offseason Championships.

The sandwich for Verlander might be a better return than what the Tigers got for Fister. Yes, the Nats just pulled the most lopsided trade of the hot stove season.

In non-contender news, the Rockies traded Dexter Fowler to the Astros, so he will continue to be a fine player for a bad team, but now I can't regularly complain about his poor defensive effort in person, so I don't know how I feel about it.

The Rays picked up Heath Bell and Ryan Hanigan in trades, so I expect those guys to blow up this year.

[throatybeard]

With nearly 200,000 votes, the ESPN poll on the Ellsbury deal is at 35% good, 65% bad.

[-jk]

With nearly 200,000 votes, the ESPN poll on the Ellsbury deal is at 35% good, 65% bad.

And we all know how much better arm-chair managers are - about as good as arm-chair basketball coaches!



-jk

[Olympic Fan]

Yankees have reportedly agreed to a deal to land ex-Brave Kelly Johnson for just under $3 million for one year. If they are getting him as a utility man -- he can play second, third or the outfield -- I say nice pickup. If they think he's a replacement for Cano at second ... well, that's a pretty weak addition (I'd rather have another free agent ex-Brave -- Infante).

Reportedly, the Mets and Granderson are close to a deal -- for either three or four years (that seems to be the hangup).

[jjasper0729]

Reportedly, the Mets and Granderson are close to a deal -- for either three or four years (that seems to be the hangup).

Even though I know he's been in talks with and is close to signing with the Mets, I wonder if the Red Sox would try to swoop in and get him. He'd fill the center field spot nicely and we could bring up Bradley and not throw him to the fire so harshly but let him get his feet under him. It would be a ton more depth in the outfield.

[Blue in the Face]

Yankees have reportedly agreed to a deal to land ex-Brave Kelly Johnson for just under $3 million for one year. If they are getting him as a utility man -- he can play second, third or the outfield -- I say nice pickup. If they think he's a replacement for Cano at second ... well, that's a pretty weak addition (I'd rather have another free agent ex-Brave -- Infante).

I think this is a very nice signing, especially given the likelihood of a significant suspension for ARod. I agree, I don't think he makes for much of a full-time 2B, but assuming that's not what he ends up being, I think he's a good player at a modest price.

[Blue in the Face]

As far as I've read, there is no next closest bid.

There may not have been a bidder then, but one sure showed up. After reports that the M's stormed out of a meeting when Cano asked for a 10th year, they apparently came back to the table and Cano signs with Seattle for 10 years, $240MM. That'll buy a lot of salmon.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...nkees/3890419/

[Blue in the Face]

Big day for now-former Yankees. Curtis Granderson signs with the Mets for 4 years, $60MM.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...llion/3891061/

[Olympic Fan]

There may not have been a bidder then, but one sure showed up. After reports that the M's stormed out of a meeting when Cano asked for a 10th year, they apparently came back to the table and Cano signs with Seattle for 10 years, $240MM. That'll buy a lot of salmon.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...nkees/3890419/

I'm very sorry to see him go, but I'm VERY happy that the Yankees held the line and refused to bite on an 10-year deal. I imagine I feel a lot like the Cardinal fans who watched their franchise let Albert Pujols walk rather sign him to a ridiculous contract. Great player ... move to keep him ... but good luck in a new town.

I suspect Seattle will come to regret their deal as much as the Angels have to regret the Pujols contract (or the Yankees regret the 10-year A-Roid deal).

It's not a question of money (hey, it's not my money), but the burden of a long-term deal. Even if you get 2-3-4 prime years, you're still stuck for 5-6-7 bad ones. Cano is 31 years old. How much longer will he be a great player (and that's what it takes to justify $20 million plus a year)?

Big hole for the Yankees, but now we can move forward. I'd love to see them pick up Infante, he's always been one of my favorites.

As for Granderson, that became moot when we signed Ellsbury. We lose 30 HRs a year in the swap, but gain in every other area (although I still hate that we went seven years for Ellsbury).

[Blue in the Face]

In a rare case of a Yankee sticking around, Hiroki Kuroda re-upped in the Bronx with a 1 year deal for $16MM. He's been excellent as a Yankee, and quite durable throughout his mlb career, but he'll be 39 next season and he declined dramatically in the 2nd half this year. Was that just the ups and downs of a season, or age creeping in? We shall see.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-...d-oneyear-deal

[Duvall]

There may not have been a bidder then, but one sure showed up. After reports that the M's stormed out of a meeting when Cano asked for a 10th year, they apparently came back to the table and Cano signs with Seattle for 10 years, $240MM. That'll buy a lot of salmon.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports...nkees/3890419/

I guess we now know why Cano asked for $300 million.

[MChambers]

I guess we now know why Cano asked for $300 million.

Maybe they are paying in Bitcoin? An amazing deal. I'm always happy to see the Yankees lose talent, but I would have been happier had they overspent for Cano.

[Olympic Fan]

In a rare case of a Yankee sticking around, Hiroki Kuroda re-upped in the Bronx with a 1 year deal for $16MM. He's been excellent as a Yankee, and quite durable throughout his mlb career, but he'll be 39 next season and he declined dramatically in the 2nd half this year. Was that just the ups and downs of a season, or age creeping in? We shall see.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-...d-oneyear-deal

Good analysis ... midway through August, the 38-year-old Kuroda was a legitimate Cy Young candidate ... then he collapsed. No report of injury. Age or just a slump?

If Kuroda can come back strong, this is a bigger deal for the Yanks than adding Ellsbury. Our starting rotation isn't there yet (Sabathia and Nova are solid; Pineda and Phelps are question marks), but this helps.

[pfrduke]

Beltran to the Yankees at $15 per for 3 years.

[tommy]

That definitely seems to be the consensus on this deal. I for one would have liked the Red Sox to have kept him, maybe for 5 years (which would seem about right). We did get Pre...zinsky (I'll have to learn how to spell that one) for a year. I've been reading that this is a good deal and we let Salty walk to Miami. Now we need some infield depth (I presume Bogaerts and Middlebrooks on the left side), a first baseman (haven't resigned Nap yet... hmmm...) and a center fielder. I know there is talk about Victorino moving to center and finding another right fielder and that may have to be an option, but we will also need a lead off hitter as well. Bradley, Jr played well in spring training but then fell not quitelike a ton of bricks once the season started and he was on the big league roster. I also don't know if keeping him there will hurt trying to keep him long term rather than stash him like other teams did with everyone else.

Sawx re-signed Napoli tonight. 2 yrs $32M.

[throatybeard]

We will miss Beltrán, but I salute him as someone who will get what I call a "career achievement" contract, a la latter-day Chipper or Jeter. (That is, a contract you already earned, and probably won't in the future. Wojo deserved NDPOY in 1997...he backed off in 1998 but still got the annual award, as a career award)

That guy is solid people. I don't even think the NYY are off base so far on that contract, if his knees hold up say two of the three years. I'm not about AAV, but years. Good for Beltrán and probably good for the NYY on this.

NYY fans...well, the less I say about them, the better. But I've seen their commentary on the internet, and wow. The hatred directed at Canó is amazing. It says a lot about the human beings who write that stuff and thier fanbase in general. I would compare NYY fans to Inside Carolina, but that would be unfair to Inside Carolina.

I also salute the Mets, who (now?) seem to understand what a reasonable number of years is for a guy in his age-32 season. So now the Mets are sane? The Mets got sane! The number of years with Granderson seem prudent. I'm still skeptical of him at his age, but at least they're not signing anyone till they're 42.

Seattle is on crack though. This Canó contract will mess them up. I have a dear friend in Seattle who took me to a game in August. A Saturday. Good seats, not much competition for the seats. I guess here's my question. Even if you adjust for inflation, when $250M in 2001 is less than $240M in 2013...why was it not worth keeping the premiere star in the game (beyond I guess Bonds at the time)? Canó 2014 isn't ARod 2002. Everyone was looking the other way about the drugs, so that wasn't really a knock on ARod then. Seattle has rarely been a competitive franchise (they were for a stretch there), so there's probably a lot of value in having one bankable star. So why Canó now rather than ARod then? I just don't get it.