Originally Posted by
ice-9
I'm not sure about trade possibilities, but if I was Cleveland, I'd much rather keep the #1 pick vs. a lottery pick next season with the assumption that the talent pool is greater. One year is a long, long time, and you never know what kind of a player you're going to get.
The 2007 draft offers a potential parallel. That draft was considered by most to be pretty weak...there was Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Joakim Noah and a bunch of NBA journeymen (Marc Gasol was taken in the second round, but nobody knew he was going to be this good). The 2008 draft the next year, in contrast, was a deep and strong draft comprised of players like Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Brook Lopez and Roy Hibbert. Now if you're the Portland Trailblazers that year, do you keep your #1 draft pick for 2007 or do you prefer a lottery pick in 2008?
It's unfortunate for Portland that they took Greg Oden, who couldn't fulfill his potential due to injuries. But Kevin Durant turned out to be the best player in BOTH drafts, and if they had taken Al Horford they still would've had a starter from the #1 pick. Sure, 2008 is overall a strong draft, but it also had a lot of disappointing lottery picks: Beasely, Gallinari, Alexander, Augustin, Thompson, Rush, Randolph, Speights...
The point is that you never know. Maybe Porter or Len or Noel is this draft's Durant. Maybe Clevelend will get a Beasely if they trade the pick for next year. I realize probabilities play into it...but Cleveland has the #1 pick! Chances are they're going to end up with a decent pro. If they trade for next year with a lottery pick, chances of finding a good pro are going to be similar (if not lower depending on high the pick), except it's one year later.
Also, perceptions of a player changes. Coming out of high school, Shabazz was considered an elite talent and a candidate for the top pick. One year later, the hype has worn off. Who's to say that won't happen to the putative strength of the 2014 draft?
It doesn't make sense to me UNLESS Cleveland gets a solid veteran player in exchange for the one year opportunity cost.