Way too early ACC Predictions

[gofurman]

I like the national rankings too but wanted to focus intra-ACC:

How and why do you see the ACC stacking up nxt year based on what we know so far? Please let me know where and why you think I missed! Subject to change with Len, UNC, Larkin etc early entries...

TIER ONE

Syracuse - I need to read up.. not sure who is returning yet?

UNC - lots of returning v good talent in McAdoo, Hairston and Bullock + strong recruiting gets UNC back at the top. I hope one of the 3 decides to leave and changes this. Unless one of them leaves I give them the slight edge over us as we have 2/3 (Hood?) starters return. They basically return the whole durn team

Duke - Cook and Suliamon + Hood and Jabari Parker, who plays the middle is a huge concern???

Notre Dame - dont know much but they always lurk in top 25

TIER 2
--------
uva - I expect strong coaching and stable core of players to put UVA in the top tier again this year... bubbe team again, very dangerous team to play as they rarely beat themselves

Pitt - they always play strong and tough

FSU - Wiggins? huge question mark. Would like to see Wiggins here vs UK and UNC. Still, many players return minus Snaer and they probably improve regardless as they were inexperienced this year.

GTech - Hunt, Carter, Miller all Freshman except Miller as Junior. And Hunt and Carter are very skilled (future pro?) freshman - see GTech moving up some nxt year

UMD - Lets assume Len is gone. Howard transfers. Team still has girth inside and Wells is v good. Not great team but ok.


TIER 3
----------
BC - this one intrigues me. The youngest team I have ever seen (all Fr 2 years ago, then all Fr and Soph this year with a stud Freshman) - now they will all be juniors and soph who are as experienced as most seniors and all played together. Ill say they get .500 this year unless the new schools are just too good. Either way they will be improved

Wake Forest - Similar to this year. Probably a little below .500 record. Lose one of the two studs but keep one and return all the other pieces. Key PG recruit coming or is that the nxt year?

Clemson - I like Brownell but where's the talent? Xs and Os, no Jimmys and Joes. McDaniels is very athletic 6'5" guy and all the guards return to improve but both "centers" are gone in Jennings and Booker.

Miami - Larkin back, but not much else proven - all else gone. Awesome PG though always gives you a chance but Miami is the biggest plummet as they lose 5 of their first 6 guys in rotation

NC State - well that was over fast. Nice recruiting but Everyone is gone now, even the PG. Youth will be served.

V Tech - No Eric Green nxt year.. could get ugly unless someone really steps up

[licc85]

BC is going to be good. They got some really, really good young guys. Olivier Hanlan is an All-ACC player next year as a sophomore. Ryan Anderson will be a junior and is one of the best bigs in the ACC. Rahon was a pretty good PG for a freshman, and had some really good games down the stretch last year. Eddie Odio might inherit the most athletic white guy in the ACC title from Mason Plumlee. I respect Steve Donohue, those guys almost beat us @BC, they are pretty much keeping everyone, and will be a tough team next year. I'd put them at least in tier 2.

[Kedsy]

BC is going to be good. They got some really, really good young guys. Olivier Hanlan is an All-ACC player next year as a sophomore. Ryan Anderson will be a junior and is one of the best bigs in the ACC. Rahon was a pretty good PG for a freshman, and had some really good games down the stretch last year. Eddie Odio might inherit the most athletic white guy in the ACC title from Mason Plumlee. I respect Steve Donohue, those guys almost beat us @BC, they are pretty much keeping everyone, and will be a tough team next year. I'd put them at least in tier 2.

I agree. BC is an NCAA team next year. I'm not sure where that puts them in the OP's tier structure, but certainly higher than the bottom tier.

I don't know whether Notre Dame or Pitt will be better next year. I suspect they're both NCAA teams. Ultimately, I'd guess the ACC gets six or seven teams into the big dance. How that fits into the OP's tier structure, I'll leave to someone else. UNC is only top tier if all three of their guys stay. If only two stay, I think UNC's on the border between top and middle tier. If one or zero stay, they're a bubble team.

If Len goes, then Maryland is bottom tier, IMO. I'd also be surprised if Georgia Tech is in the upper half of the ACC next season. Also, FSU needs to get Wiggins to stay in that middle tier, but even with him I doubt they can get up to top tier. Finally, if NC State gets the Davis kid from Tulane, I think they're at least a bubble team and thus probably deserve to be in the OP's middle tier.

[Duvall]

I like the national rankings too but wanted to focus intra-ACC:

How and why do you see the ACC stacking up nxt year based on what we know so far? Please let me know where and why you think I missed!

Yeah, James Michael McAdoo shouldn't be listed among UNC's good players.

I think Maryland is an NCAA team next year even if Len goes - their big freshmen class should take a step forward next year either way. And it's not like Len was a reliable resource for them last season.

[sporthenry]

I agree. BC is an NCAA team next year. I'm not sure where that puts them in the OP's tier structure, but certainly higher than the bottom tier.

I don't know whether Notre Dame or Pitt will be better next year. I suspect they're both NCAA teams. Ultimately, I'd guess the ACC gets six or seven teams into the big dance. How that fits into the OP's tier structure, I'll leave to someone else. UNC is only top tier if all three of their guys stay. If only two stay, I think UNC's on the border between top and middle tier. If one or zero stay, they're a bubble team.

If Len goes, then Maryland is bottom tier, IMO. I'd also be surprised if Georgia Tech is in the upper half of the ACC next season. Also, FSU needs to get Wiggins to stay in that middle tier, but even with him I doubt they can get up to top tier. Finally, if NC State gets the Davis kid from Tulane, I think they're at least a bubble team and thus probably deserve to be in the OP's middle tier.

I'd agree that BC deserves to be in the middle tier. I think BC and UVA will be the two of the non Duke/UNC old ACC teams fighting to join the top tier.

At this point, I'd say Duke and Syracuse are in their own tier. With ND and UNC (assuming they lose 1/2 of their guys) along with possibly UVA or BC jumping up to the next tier. I'm fairly low on Pittsburgh with their losses.

I think MD can still stay somewhat relevant without Len but returning Wells, Faust and Allen is a solid team. If Cleare can develop, they'll be a good team.

I agree that I'm not really seeing much from Georgia Tech or FSU (sans Wiggins). Even if Wiggins goes to FSU, they'll be a mediocre team who might be able to scratch their way into the tournament but I suspect that is what will drive him away from FSU because he wants to win.

[BD80]

When does Louisville join in?

[JNort]

Duke and Cuse will reign over the ACC next year with Unc probably being that third team. NC State will surprise people and will make the NCAA tourny next year. BC will be a tournament team as well. FSU with Wiggins would be interesting but without I won't give them the time of day. Notre Dame will be Notre Dame and prob be a top 25 team and Pitt will just be solid ole Pitt. Wake should improve but not by enough to worry the top teams. Maryland will drop down a bit as will VT by a lot without Green.

[94duke]

When does Louisville join in?

2014, when MD leaves:
http://espn.go.com/college-sports/st...ille-cardinals

[CDu]

I think it is really hard to tell what these teams are going to look like for next year until after we know for sure who is going to be back. For example, the following teams have huge roster questions looming:

Syracuse: do Carter-Williams and Fair stay or go?
UNC: do McAdoo, Bullock, Hairston stay or go? does Wiggins join them?
NC State: do they add Josh Davis to go with Barber, Lewis, Lee, Turner, Warren, Anya, Vandenburg, and Washington?
FSU: does Wiggins join them?

If Syracuse loses both Carter-Williams and Fair, they could have a tougher time in the ACC (still very good, but maybe not elite). If UNC loses one or more of those guys and doesn't get Wiggins, they won't be elite. If they do get Wiggins, they could be VERY good. If State adds Davis, they'll be on the fringe of the NCAA tournament (sort of like their team 2 years ago). If FSU gets Wiggins and their PG play improves, they could be very solid.

Just too early (as the thread title suggests).

[burnspbesq]

It's a shame we can't have promotion and relegation between the ACC and the SoCon. Davidson is much more capable of competing in the ACC in 13-14 than VaTech.

[CDu]

It's a shame we can't have promotion and relegation between the ACC and the SoCon. Davidson is much more capable of competing in the ACC in 13-14 than VaTech.

Doubtful. Davidson is going to lose a lot of players this year. Next year will be a rebuilding year for them. Va Tech is sure to be terrible, but Davidson might be even worse.

[matt1]

Next year's ACC could get double digit teams into the tournament. Could we challenge the 11 of the 2011 Big East (with one fewer team) or our percentage mark of 7/9 (78%) in about 2004?

[Kedsy]

Next year's ACC could get double digit teams into the tournament. Could we challenge the 11 of the 2011 Big East (with one fewer team) or our percentage mark of 7/9 (78%) in about 2004?

A more realistic view would be 7 or 8. In time, 10 or 11 wouldn't be out of the question, especially after the conference adds Louisville, but I don't think next season has a great chance of that happening.

[gofurman]

I think it is really hard to tell what these teams are going to look like for next year until after we know for sure who is going to be back. For example, the following teams have huge roster questions looming:

Syracuse: do Carter-Williams and Fair stay or go?
UNC: do McAdoo, Bullock, Hairston stay or go? does Wiggins join them?
NC State: do they add Josh Davis to go with Barber, Lewis, Lee, Turner, Warren, Anya, Vandenburg, and Washington?
FSU: does Wiggins join them?

If Syracuse loses both Carter-Williams and Fair, they could have a tougher time in the ACC (still very good, but maybe not elite). If UNC loses one or more of those guys and doesn't get Wiggins, they won't be elite. If they do get Wiggins, they could be VERY good. If State adds Davis, they'll be on the fringe of the NCAA tournament (sort of like their team 2 years ago). If FSU gets Wiggins and their PG play improves, they could be very solid.

Just too early (as the thread title suggests).

Syracuse Carter-Williams is gone apparently so that is one answer. Cmon UNC Players.. go pro - you know you are so good

[sporthenry]

Next year's ACC could get double digit teams into the tournament. Could we challenge the 11 of the 2011 Big East (with one fewer team) or our percentage mark of 7/9 (78%) in about 2004?

They won't ever challenge that %. It works for a small conference but the ACC is way too weak at the bottom. To get to that %, the ACC next year would have to send 12 of its 15 teams to the dance. When you realize that Clemson, Wake and Va. Tech just aren't very good. That means all of MD, FSU, Miami, UVA, BC, Georgia Tech and NC State would have to make it.

Similar with 11 teams. Conference just isn't good enough next year. On a good year, they might be able to get it but Miami, NC State, and FSU seem to be trending down next year and BC, Tech, and UVA still have a ton to prove.

Syracuse, Duke, UNC, and Notre Dame would seem to be in good shape. Add UVA and Pitt and you are up to 6. Then you might get 1-2 more out of BC, Tech, NC State and Miami and that'll leave you with 7-8 teams.

[gofurman]

They won't ever challenge that %. It works for a small conference but the ACC is way too weak at the bottom. To get to that %, the ACC next year would have to send 12 of its 15 teams to the dance. When you realize that Clemson, Wake and Va. Tech just aren't very good. That means all of MD, FSU, Miami, UVA, BC, Georgia Tech and NC State would have to make it.

Similar with 11 teams. Conference just isn't good enough next year. On a good year, they might be able to get it but Miami, NC State, and FSU seem to be trending down next year and BC, Tech, and UVA still have a ton to prove.

Syracuse, Duke, UNC, and Notre Dame would seem to be in good shape. Add UVA and Pitt and you are up to 6. Then you might get 1-2 more out of BC, Tech, NC State and Miami and that'll leave you with 7-8 teams.

Still , the ACC will be impressive once again. Wouldnt be shocking to see half the teams in the dance. Say 8 of 16 once Louisville is in... that is strong !

For example- Duke, UNC, Syracuse and Louisville are almost locks. Then let's admit Pitt and Notre Dame are better than much of the ACC in current form and were in the dance this year. That's six 'easy'. All you need is two of NC State, FSU, GTech, UVA, Miami, BC, Clemson, Wake etc... not hard at all once Wake realizes Bzdelik has to go.

On that note I have to admit I am somewhat shocked Bzdelik got another year. Will someone Please hire me for a job where I can go 8-20 and make a million a year?

[Olympic Fan]

Next year's ACC could get double digit teams into the tournament. Could we challenge the 11 of the 2011 Big East (with one fewer team) or our percentage mark of 7/9 (78%) in about 2004?

The ACC never put 7 of 9 in the tournament. The record is 75 percent -- the ACC put 6 of 8 in the tournament four times -- in 1986, 1987, 1989 and 1991. We put 6 of 9 (66.7 percent) in 1993, 1996, 1997, 2001, and 2004.

The most raw numbers -- 7 teams -- came in 2007 and 2007. But that was 7 of 12 both years.

the Big East does have the record for most teams (11/of 16), but the ACC holds the record for the highest percent (75.0 percent).

Going into next year, I think the ACC has a good chance to beat its own record of 7, but not the Big East record of 11 or the ACC record of 75 percent.

Right now, I like Duke, Syracuse, UNC for sure (although if UNC loses all three studs to the NBA or Syracuse loses Fair, they could be borderline) ... Maryland, Virginia, Notre Dame and Pitt to have strong chances ... Boston College and maybe FSU (if they get Wiggins, move them to the second tier. N.C. State could possibly be in the mix if they add Josh Davis ... but even then I rate them less than 50-50. I even think Georgia Tech might have a slim chance (if they find a point guard).

Miami, Wake, Clemson and Virginia Tech, I rate no chance ... that means 11 is the absolute max, although I think 7-8 is more likely.

[-bdbd]

Really looking forward to a very interesting 2013-14. Duke will be a lot of fun to watch, with a lot more dynamism and scoring options, but likely to lose a lot of rebounding battles. Also looking forward to ACC roadtrips to places like Syracuse, Pittsburgh and South Bend.

I posted this link to an early ESPN rankings on the general 2013-14 Expectations thread:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...ege-basketball

ESPN predicts three ACC teams ranked nationally -- #5 Duke, #8 UNC, and #10 Syracuse. No others in their early top-25.

Based on that - and by the way Syracuse lost Cartier Williams to the NBA today - I'd have to put Duke, UNC and Syracuse in a "top tier." Louisville would be at the very top if they were in the ACC in 2013-14.

The second tier would have Notre Dame (despite some losses), Pitt (a NCAAT team this year), the well-coached and overall improving program at UVA, probably MD (Shaq Clear was a McD AA and should be ready to backfill Len in the middle), and could see FSU in this tier if they get Wiggins.

The third tier is BC (though they are young and will be inconsistent), FSU (w/o Wiggins), I probably don't see GT here unless they play more mature/consistent, but I think State has enough remaining parts (and pride) to hang on to the third-tier rung.

Fourth (bottom) Tier: I see VPI and Wake duking it out for the bottom honors, and Clemson only slightly better. It'll be interesting if Larkin can carry a team on his shoulders following some pretty major losses in South Beach (if so they COULD) eek out a third-tier rating by season's end.

I like the national rankings too but wanted to focus intra-ACC:

How and why do you see the ACC stacking up nxt year based on what we know so far? Please let me know where and why you think I missed! Subject to change with Len, UNC, Larkin etc early entries...

TIER ONE

Syracuse - I need to read up.. not sure who is returning yet?

UNC - lots of returning v good talent in McAdoo, Hairston and Bullock + strong recruiting gets UNC back at the top. I hope one of the 3 decides to leave and changes this. Unless one of them leaves I give them the slight edge over us as we have 2/3 (Hood?) starters return. They basically return the whole durn team

Duke - Cook and Suliamon + Hood and Jabari Parker, who plays the middle is a huge concern???

Notre Dame - dont know much but they always lurk in top 25

TIER 2
--------
uva - I expect strong coaching and stable core of players to put UVA in the top tier again this year... bubbe team again, very dangerous team to play as they rarely beat themselves

Pitt - they always play strong and tough

FSU - Wiggins? huge question mark. Would like to see Wiggins here vs UK and UNC. Still, many players return minus Snaer and they probably improve regardless as they were inexperienced this year.

GTech - Hunt, Carter, Miller all Freshman except Miller as Junior. And Hunt and Carter are very skilled (future pro?) freshman - see GTech moving up some nxt year

UMD - Lets assume Len is gone. Howard transfers. Team still has girth inside and Wells is v good. Not great team but ok.


TIER 3
----------
BC - this one intrigues me. The youngest team I have ever seen (all Fr 2 years ago, then all Fr and Soph this year with a stud Freshman) - now they will all be juniors and soph who are as experienced as most seniors and all played together. Ill say they get .500 this year unless the new schools are just too good. Either way they will be improved

Wake Forest - Similar to this year. Probably a little below .500 record. Lose one of the two studs but keep one and return all the other pieces. Key PG recruit coming or is that the nxt year?

Clemson - I like Brownell but where's the talent? Xs and Os, no Jimmys and Joes. McDaniels is very athletic 6'5" guy and all the guards return to improve but both "centers" are gone in Jennings and Booker.

Miami - Larkin back, but not much else proven - all else gone. Awesome PG though always gives you a chance but Miami is the biggest plummet as they lose 5 of their first 6 guys in rotation

NC State - well that was over fast. Nice recruiting but Everyone is gone now, even the PG. Youth will be served.

V Tech - No Eric Green nxt year.. could get ugly unless someone really steps up

[rsvman]

...The most raw numbers -- 7 teams -- came in 2007 and 2007. But that was 7 of 12 both years.

....

Speaking of numbers, something doesn't seem quite right in the sentence above. A typo, almost certainly. Perhaps you could provide the other year? Inquiring minds want to know.

[Olympic Fan]

Speaking of numbers, something doesn't seem quite right in the sentence above. A typo, almost certainly. Perhaps you could provide the other year? Inquiring minds want to know.

Sorry ... it was a typo -- 2007 and 2009 were the two years we put 7 of 12 teams in the tournament.