Bottom 3 movies of summer!

[davekay1971]

Can't believe all the "hate" for a Pacific Rim. I really think it will do well!

I think the popularity of Pacific Rim as a bottom 3 pick is more about the fact that it is: (1) not a sequel, and (2) does not feature a marquee name (except maybe the director...though Del Toro isn't in the category of director where people go to see his stuff en masse because of his name). Two recent summer sci-fi spectaculars that were not sequels and didn't feature a marquee actor...John Carter and Battleship. On the flip side, there was District 9...so quality can actually win out. If Pacific Rim gets great reviews and great word of mouth, it can do well. But it's going to depend on those two things, and that makes it appealing as a bottom 3 pick.

[JasonEvans]

I think the popularity of Pacific Rim as a bottom 3 pick is more about the fact that it is: (1) not a sequel, and (2) does not feature a marquee name (except maybe the director...though Del Toro isn't in the category of director where people go to see his stuff en masse because of his name). Two recent summer sci-fi spectaculars that were not sequels and didn't feature a marquee actor...John Carter and Battleship. On the flip side, there was District 9...so quality can actually win out. If Pacific Rim gets great reviews and great word of mouth, it can do well. But it's going to depend on those two things, and that makes it appealing as a bottom 3 pick.

Well, it does have a "giant robots versus giant aliens!" cool factor working for it too. But, the potential is defintely there for it to stink like Battleship did.

-Jason "I think Del Toro has done a good job of marketing the film though. It feels nothing like the cheese that was Battleship" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

A good read on why WWZ may or may not suck.

http://screenrant.com/damon-lindelof...feedly&_r=true

[brevity]

Can't believe all the "hate" for a Pacific Rim. I really think it will do well!

I didn't pick it for my bottom 3, but I could see it getting lost in the shuffle. Also, I could see casual buyers (who make or break summer movies) getting Pacific Rim confused with Elysium, and skipping the man-in-robot-armor film that does not have Matt Damon.

[NashvilleDevil]

I didn't pick it for my bottom 3, but I could see it getting lost in the shuffle. Also, I could see casual buyers (who make or break summer movies) getting Pacific Rim confused with Elysium, and skipping the man-in-robot-armor film that does not have Matt Damon.

I don't know. Has Matt Damon made a huge movie that didn't involve being part of Danny Ocean's crew or playing a super spy with amnesia?

[brevity]

I don't know. Has Matt Damon made a huge movie that didn't involve being part of Danny Ocean's crew or playing a super spy with amnesia?

Depends. Take away those 6 movies and his biggest films are Saving Private Ryan ($216M), True Grit ($171M), Good Will Hunting ($138M), and The Departed ($132M). I guess you could exclude those films as well if you argue that the draws were Spielberg/Hanks, Coens/Bridges, Robin Williams, and Scorsese/DiCaprio/Nicholson. You would be left with clear Damon films around $50-75M, but you've also sort of missed the point of Matt Damon. He's usually part of a package deal; he doesn't have to carry the film by himself. Elysium has Jodie Foster and will play up the District 9 thing.

Also, it's still not clear to me why we had to exclude the Jason Bourne films in the first place. Matt Damon was clearly the main draw in those.

[JasonEvans]

The poll is closed and the 48% of us who picked Gatsby are feeling pretty good right now! Many projections have it earning about $35 mil its opening weekend and only about $100 million total. The reviews are generally poor, though not terrible. Obviously, we will need to see how so many other films in this contest do, but it certainly feels like Gatsby will be in the running for the bottom 3 of summer.

-Jason "this is fun. We are going to do a bottom 3 poll every season -- to go along with our top 5 polls" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

The poll is closed and the 48% of us who picked Gatsby are feeling pretty good right now! Many projections have it earning about $35 mil its opening weekend and only about $100 million total. The reviews are generally poor, though not terrible. Obviously, we will need to see how so many other films in this contest do, but it certainly feels like Gatsby will be in the running for the bottom 3 of summer.

-Jason "this is fun. We are going to do a bottom 3 poll every season -- to go along with our top 5 polls" Evans

My girlfriend no longer wants to see it. Wooohooo!!!

[JasonEvans]

The poll is closed and the 48% of us who picked Gatsby are feeling pretty good right now! Many projections have it earning about $35 mil its opening weekend and only about $100 million total. The reviews are generally poor, though not terrible. Obviously, we will need to see how so many other films in this contest do, but it certainly feels like Gatsby will be in the running for the bottom 3 of summer.

I may have spoken too soon.

Gatsby did $3+ million from midnight showings, a huge number for a female-driven film. It now looks like it is going to have a $40+ mil opening and, unless word of mouth is terrible, it should get to $100 million in total boxoffice. I may be a contender for our bottom 3, but it won't be anywhere close to a lock.

-Jason "Gatsby currently sits at 46% on Rotten Tomatoes -- bad, but not horrible" Evans

[Udaman]

JE - I'll double or nothing our bet that Gatsby doesn't get to $100M. It simply won't happen.

At best it has 2 weeks of people going to it, and it might be at $40M this weekend, but I doubt it. Nobody is going to go see this twice (it's insanely long, nearly 2.5 hours), and it will get none of the teenage boy (or girl) audience...and in 1 week Start Trek comes out, and then the Hangover 3 and Before Midnight.

Uda "yes, this is just a lame attempt to make up for how awesome JE was in taking me to the woodshed on my inane bet that IM3 wouldn't break $375M" man

[CameronBornAndBred]

JE - I'll double or nothing our bet that Gatsby doesn't get to $100M. It simply won't happen.

At best it has 2 weeks of people going to it, and it might be at $40M this weekend, but I doubt it. Nobody is going to go see this twice (it's insanely long, nearly 2.5 hours), and it will get none of the teenage boy (or girl) audience...and in 1 week Start Trek comes out, and then the Hangover 3 and Before Midnight.

Uda "yes, this is just a lame attempt to make up for how awesome JE was in taking me to the woodshed on my inane bet that IM3 wouldn't break $375M" man

I'm guessing IM3 comes in on top of the weekend again, then of course Star Trek crushes everyone next weekend. I don't know how much Gatsby will get total, but I doubt $100M.

[cato]

AO Scott's review of Gatsby over at NYTimes rekindled my interest in the movie. I doubt we'll go see it in the theater, since we have to keep a precious baby-sitting pass for Star Trek, but I would absolutely go see it before seeing, say, IM3.

Eh, we'll see. I hope Baz stays out of the bottom three.

[JasonEvans]

JE - I'll double or nothing our bet that Gatsby doesn't get to $100M. It simply won't happen.

I am somewhat tempted, not because I think Gatsby will be good, but because I think it has a chance to catch on with women just enough to push it over $100 million. I am not endorsing it as a hit, merely not writing it off as a total failure yet.

But, I cannot take the bet because I voted for Gatsby in this poll and that would mean betting against myself. I am not going there.

-Jason "see if you can come up with some other fun bet... cause you are gonna lose the Iron Man 3 one!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

The folks who voted for World War Z may be in real trouble. Paramount this week launched a counter-offensive to all the bad "they had to re-shoot the entire ending" publicity that the film has gotten. Part of that counter-offensive was showing the film to a select number of critics and journalists. Well, the word is that the movie is really good. Here is what one journalist for Deadline.com said about it.

Each time I told someone I’d seen it, the response from industry insiders was a version of, “Well, just how bad is it?” I’m no reviewer but I can honestly say that it’s better than good; try a rocking, smart, pulse pounding big scale pandemic with raging zombies, tension and the kind of hero star turn Pitt hasn’t done in a long time.

-Jason "It won't do I Am Legend ($256 mil) kind of numbers, but I suspect this film is going to be in the $150 mil kind of range" Evans

[luburch]

Just heard from several people that Gatsby is "amazing" and "hands down movie of the year"

[JasonEvans]

Just heard from several people that Gatsby is "amazing" and "hands down movie of the year"

Hollywood is buzzing that Gatsby is going to do more than $50-million this opening weekend. The Friday figure looks to be about $20 million. If it opens north of $50 million, it would have to get horrible word of mouth (it may not be great, but it ain't that bad) to come up short of $100 million. I am now thinking the lowest it does is more like $120 million, and that's if it does just so-so the next couple weeks. I expect it will not be in the bottom 3 of summer.

-Jason "I lose... that was quick" Evans

[NashvilleDevil]

This could be an exciting contest with the Hangover looking like a disaster according to our expert Mr. Evans. That said no one picked it because we all thought the Wolfpack was good for at least $150 million.

[El_Diablo]

JE - I'll double or nothing our bet that Gatsby doesn't get to $100M. It simply won't happen.

At best it has 2 weeks of people going to it, and it might be at $40M this weekend, but I doubt it. Nobody is going to go see this twice (it's insanely long, nearly 2.5 hours), and it will get none of the teenage boy (or girl) audience...and in 1 week Start Trek comes out, and then the Hangover 3 and Before Midnight.

Gatsby surpassed the $100 million mark yesterday. After this weekend, it should be in the $115-120 million range. It seems to be safely out of the bottom three at this point.

[El_Diablo]

Here is how HSX handicaps the race as of this evening:

Iron Man 3 - 391.55
Man of Steel - 277.44
Fast & Furious 6 - 226.37
Monsters University - 221.14
Star Trek: Into Darkness - 197.33
Despicable Me 2 - 188.40
The Wolverine - 171.38
Pacific Rim - 150.44
World War Z - 137.77
Great Gatsby - 134.21
The Lone Ranger -121.37
Hangover Part III - 119.42
After Earth - 99.97
The Internship - 66.62

Italicized entries have not opened or are opening this weekend, so they are more speculative. And keep in mind that these numbers are for the first four weeks only, so they do not account for relative "legs" equally.

[JasonEvans]

Congrats to 1999ballboy, A-Tex Devil, CameronBornAndBred, dball, DevilBen02, El_Diablo, fidel, Highlander, JasonEvans, Kdogg, Lord Ash, matt1, mph, NashvilleDevil, rsvman, and sporthenry!!

We all picked After Earth as one of the bottom 3 and it is looking like a very, very strong contender. VERY STRONG!

Early buzz is that it is going to open with only mid-$20 million kind of boxoffice. This film may end up making something like $60-70 million when all is said and done. It is a massive flop!

-Jason "it appears Hangover III will have trouble catching Great Gatsby, so if you had Gatsby as a flop but not Hangover, your hopes of going 3-for-3 are slim" Evans