Bottom 3 movies of summer!

[JasonEvans]

We talked about this a bit in the Top 5 poll and I decided to go ahead and make a poll for it.

Here are the rules.

1. Vote for three of the films listed in the poll. Only vote for three. If you vote for 4, you cannot win. If you vote for 2 you cannot win. This is like the Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch.
2. No write-ins will be allowed. These are all films expected to be very successful at the boxffice. You are not allowed to pick some small, limited release film in place of one of them.
3. You are voting for the films on this list that will have a LOWEST BOXOFFICE. To some extent, we are voting for the biggest busts of summer. A film that makes $90 million is a better pick than one that makes $120 million. Everyone understand?
4. Voting will close in 8 days, so vote fast!
5. The contest will close at the end of September or when it is clear that we know which of the films did the worst at the boxoffice.

-Jason "enjoy... an any vote for Iron Man 3 must be explained in a post and is subject to a barrage of criticism " Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

Great Gatsby ---- zzzzzzzzzz. I'm going to try really hard to convince girlfriend to wait for the DVD, but she wants to see it. Even the title bores me. Kids won't see it, many guys like me won't want to (but will be dragged by their girlfriends), I vote bomb.

After Earth --- M. Knight kills it for me, might not even watch it on tv. I don't care about Will Smith's kid. There are far better sci-fi flicks to choose from.

World War Z --- We have almost hit a point with zombie saturation. The zombie love story that was out earlier didn't do so hot, and Brad Pitt does not guarantee box office success. As JE pointed out, too many attempts to save this film (bring it back from the dead maybe?!) don't bode well. I will probably watch it on DVD, but it will be after I finish watching my recordings of The Walking Dead.

[BD80]

Great Gatsby ---- zzzzzzzzzz. I'm going to try really hard to convince girlfriend to wait for the DVD, but she wants to see it. Even the title bores me. Kids won't see it, many guys like me won't want to (but will be dragged by their girlfriends), I vote bomb.

After Earth --- M. Knight kills it for me, might not even watch it on tv. I don't care about Will Smith's kid. There are far better sci-fi flicks to choose from.

World War Z --- We have almost hit a point with zombie saturation. The zombie love story that was out earlier didn't do so hot, and Brad Pitt does not guarantee box office success. As JE pointed out, too many attempts to save this film (bring it back from the dead maybe?!) don't bode well. I will probably watch it on DVD, but it will be after I finish watching my recordings of The Walking Dead.

Very sound points.

I'll choose the other three clunker candidates:

Lone Ranger - might overshoot campy (as in Pirates) into too stupid even for adolescent movie goers. Johnny Depp will be 50 when this movie comes out.

The Internship - None of the creative talent behing Wedding Crashers is involved. VVaughn hasn't done anything good in the 8 years since, but a lot BAD. Like his frequent cohort Ben Stiller, VV is now just grabbing $ where he can, no semblance of pride in his craft or care for his audience.

The Wolverine - the sequel/prequel nobody's been clamoring for. The X-Men franchise looped back to the origins of the X-Men (although next year's release is one of those time traveling old meets new plotlines with Jackman as Wolverine). Late summer release. Can't imagine a story that many will be interested in. Least confident this will do badly, probably #6 from bottom, but you've got to make bold choices to be the sole champion!

I think this woul be a failrly easy game if the goal were to pick the bottom 5.

[A-Tex Devil]

Lone Ranger - Wild Wild West Redux, seems like. Unknown lead, Depp playing a borderline racist sterotype. Nope.

After Earth - M. Night. All that needs to be said. Plus Oblivion kinda beat this one to the punch too. Not exactly the same movies but close.

Pacific Rim - This could go either way, but I am leaning toward bust. Battleship, Battle of LA, etc. etc. have all not done well. I just don't see this working, but who knows.

World War Z, Gatsby and Wolverine will all do well enough not to be complete busts, I imagine.

[JasonEvans]

I went with Gatsby, After Earth, and Internship.

I am frankly shocked there is not more consensus on Internship. I see it as the mortal lock of this group. The trailers don't look funny and both Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn have made some really bad films in recent years. Plus, Hangover III comes out two weeks before it and is going to satisfy a lot of the "I want to laugh" demand at theaters. This Is The End comes the week after Internship and that movie looks a million times funnier than this one.

I may regret After Earth as a pick. The trailer looks solid and Will Smith, thou not the star he once was, still will bring in an audience. But, the trailers sure make it appear that Will Smith gets killed off in the first five or ten minutes of the film. I wonder if he is going to appear in the rest of the movie as an educational hologram or something like that. Regardless, I think word will get out that Will is not in this movie very much and that will hurt. But, like many of you, I am voting for this film (or voting against it, which is it?) because of M Night. Hey, I just realized that if Will dies and then comes back as a hologram then Jaden can look into the camera and say, "I see dead people" in this movie, just to remind all of us how good M Night once was many, many years ago.

Gatsby is by Baz Lurhman, "the visionary director of Moulin Rouge and Romeo + Juliet." Ummm, I hate Baz Lurhman films. They are all flash and style and he forgets little details like story and characters. Baz's most successful film to date is Moulin Rouge which made all of $55 million in 2001. Even with inflation adjustments, that is still only like $75 or $80 mill in total boxoffice. I think this movie will do slightly more than that, but not much more. If it did not have Leo, it would struggle to make $50 million. It is also stuck in between Iron Man 3 and Star Trek. I doubt many Gatsby fans are going to go to Star Trek, but I think Iron Man is going to cross gender and generational boundaries and will impact Gatsby, much as Avengers impacted other May films last year.

-Jason "to me, the key is to pick films without a built-in audience. As a result, I think folks picking Wolverine are making a big mistake" Evans

[brevity]

As I predicted in the other thread, the bottom three should be The Internship, World War Z, and The Great Gatsby. I've already contributed to the mass dismantling of The Internship (though it might make good TV viewing based on Aasif Mandvi). Now the others.

I see World War Z as divisive, so the people who really want to see it are hopeful that it will be a great success. Those of us who don't care for zombie movies (myself included) can't fathom it doing well in a summer movie market. Everyone else is waiting for that one review telling them to stay home and watch "The Walking Dead" on Netflix instead. Believe me, that review will come.

I've touched upon The Great Gatsby, but I've seen a few more ads now and am wondering about the women. Is Carey Mulligan miscast? She's 11 years younger than Leonardo DiCaprio, and I believe their characters are close to the same age. For that and other reasons I'm having a difficult time being interested in her place here. I'll admit that the entire Daisy Buchanan character is a bit of a turn-off anyway, but I thought most guy viewers were supposed to find her at least somewhat appealing, in that falsely-attainable Katie Holmes way (I'll never understand that one either). Meanwhile, Isla Fisher is also in the movie, but a non-presence in the trailers. The studio really has no desire to directly target straight men.

[camion]

I picked the ones a really really plan on not seeing.

One - The Great Gatsby
Two - The Internship
Five - The Lone Ranger

I consider all zombie movies at this point to be stinkers emeritus and already in. No need to vote on them.

[A-Tex Devil]

Can I ask why Internship was even on here? Simply because it reunites the Wedding Crashers crew? Otherwise, how is it different than any other harmless summer R rated comedy like Bad Teacher or Horrible Bosses? Not sure that anyone EXPECTS it or NEEDS it to be a blockbuster.

So, yeah, it's a gimme, I guess. But I'd suggest, sheepishly, that it should be removed altogether. It's like taking all of last years MLB playoff teams, and the Astros, and asking which 3 teams will have the worst record this year.

[NashvilleDevil]

So if The Internship cost $50 million to make and makes $90 million is that considered a bomb? Lone Ranger probably cost close to $200 million+ and it could make $150 million which is more than the hypothetical amount The Internship made but it lost over $50 million while The Internship had a profit of $40 million.

[CameronBornAndBred]

So if The Internship cost $50 million to make and makes $90 million is that considered a bomb? Lone Ranger probably cost close to $200 million+ and it could make $150 million which is more than the hypothetical amount The Internship made but it lost over $50 million while The Internship had a profit of $40 million.

Great point and it needs to be added to the criteria. The bombs' should be judged on losses, or their minimal returns, and not sales. I have no idea what each cost to make, but we can Google it easily. Also, are we using domestic returns or international returns? Because some of the people on the rest of the planet seem to have nothing better to do other than go watch really crappy movies.

[NashvilleDevil]

Great point and it needs to be added to the criteria. The bombs' should be judged on losses, or their minimal returns, and not sales. I have no idea what each cost to make, but we can Google it easily. Also, are we using domestic returns or international returns? Because some of the people on the rest of the planet seem to have nothing better to do other than go watch really crappy movies.

The best box office poll is always domestic so this one is probably domestic as well.

[Deslok]

Great point and it needs to be added to the criteria. The bombs' should be judged on losses, or their minimal returns, and not sales. I have no idea what each cost to make, but we can Google it easily. Also, are we using domestic returns or international returns? Because some of the people on the rest of the planet seem to have nothing better to do other than go watch really crappy movies.

We call that part of the planet "America" .

And for a more thoughtful response, the Hollywood movies that tend to do better in foreign markets are less dialog intensive. For a non-native English speaking audience, a movie like Lincoln is much less appealing than something that's more stereotypically "when in doubt, blow it up." Domestic studios often don't have the budgets to match the special effects of those sorts of movies, while they can easily afford their own language versions of dialogue laden films that are more culturally centered on their own nation. Just because the movies that Hollywood gets more $ overseas are not always more intellectually oriented does not negate the fact that such movies are often produced by their own domestic studios(or at least, as often as is done in Hollywood, which might be more rare than we'd prefer).

[JasonEvans]

Great point and it needs to be added to the criteria. The bombs' should be judged on losses, or their minimal returns, and not sales. I have no idea what each cost to make, but we can Google it easily. Also, are we using domestic returns or international returns? Because some of the people on the rest of the planet seem to have nothing better to do other than go watch really crappy movies.

We already established the criteria as boxoffice, not gross profits. Gross profits would certain change the calculus but it is simply too late for that. Also, all our polls are domestic boxoffice. We don't do international. If we did, Madagascar 3 and Ice Age 5 would have been huge winners a year ago.

-Jason "The Internship is being billed as a Wedding Crashers reunion, which is why some have expected big boxoffice from it -- there is almost always one raunchy comedy making big money during the summer, The Internship could be it this summer" Evans

[wavedukefan70s]

As I predicted in the other thread, the bottom three should be The Internship, World War Z, and The Great Gatsby. I've already contributed to the mass dismantling of The Internship (though it might make good TV viewing based on Aasif Mandvi). Now the others.

I see World War Z as divisive, so the people who really want to see it are hopeful that it will be a great success. Those of us who don't care for zombie movies (myself included) can't fathom it doing well in a summer movie market. Everyone else is waiting for that one review telling them to stay home and watch "The Walking Dead" on Netflix instead. Believe me, that review will come.

I've touched upon The Great Gatsby, but I've seen a few more ads now and am wondering about the women. Is Carey Mulligan miscast? She's 11 years younger than Leonardo DiCaprio, and I believe their characters are close to the same age. For that and other reasons I'm having a difficult time being interested in her place here. I'll admit that the entire Daisy Buchanan character is a bit of a turn-off anyway, but I thought most guy viewers were supposed to find her at least somewhat appealing, in that falsely-attainable Katie Holmes way (I'll never understand that one either). Meanwhile, Isla Fisher is also in the movie, but a non-presence in the trailers. The studio really has no desire to directly target straight men.

Absolutely agree!especially on zombie movies.last zombie movie i saw on purpose was return of the living dead in 83 or 84.

[BD80]

I went with Gatsby, After Earth, and Internship.

I am frankly shocked there is not more consensus on Internship. I see it as the mortal lock of this group. The trailers don't look funny and both Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn have made some really bad films in recent years. Plus, Hangover III comes out two weeks before it and is going to satisfy a lot of the "I want to laugh" demand at theaters. This Is The End comes the week after Internship and that movie looks a million times funnier than this one.

I may regret After Earth as a pick. The trailer looks solid and Will Smith, thou not the star he once was, still will bring in an audience. But, the trailers sure make it appear that Will Smith gets killed off in the first five or ten minutes of the film. I wonder if he is going to appear in the rest of the movie as an educational hologram or something like that. ...

... -Jason "The Internship is being billed as a Wedding Crashers reunion, which is why some have expected big boxoffice from it -- there is almost always one raunchy comedy making big money during the summer, The Internship could be it this summer" Evans

The Internship is written by Vince Vaughn (who also wrote The Break-Up and Couples Retreat) and Jared Stern (who also wrote The Watch and the screenplay for Mr Popper's Penguins). No reason to expect anything resembling comedy. Raunchy? Maybe. Awkward? My guess is yes.

The plot of After Earth appears to involve Will Smith as a famous, heroic general returning from war to finally reunite with his family, but he and his son crash land on long-abandoned earth. General Will is trapped in the cockpit, while son Jaden must journey forth to retrieve their homing beacon to save his father. So most of the film will depict Jaden's adventures as he tries to live up to his father's reputation - art imitating life?

[JasonEvans]

The plot of After Earth appears to involve Will Smith as a famous, heroic general returning from war to finally reunite with his family, but he and his son crash land on long-abandoned earth. General Will is trapped in the cockpit, while son Jaden must journey forth to retrieve their homing beacon to save his father. So most of the film will depict Jaden's adventures as he tries to live up to his father's reputation - art imitating life?

You know, somehow I had missed this trailer that does make the plot more clear.


I thought it appeared that Will died, being sucked out into space when the back of the spaceship tears open at the :44 mark, but it now appears he is sucked forward (into the cockpit) instead of sucked out the back. So, I guess he is not dead. The trailer also says "2 confirmed survivors," so unless someone else is alive, Will and Jaden both make it down to the deadly planet Earth.

The trailer looks pretty awful to me though. Seems like the story is super simplistic and I am not sure how much nuance it is going to have. Will's accent is strange too. I feel much better about picking this film to flop after seeing this trailer.

-Jason "AE has a reported budget of around $130 million. It will do well internationally and should come close to breaking even" Evans

[brevity]

I thought it appeared that Will died, being sucked out into space when the back of the spaceship tears open at the :44 mark, but it now appears he is sucked forward (into the cockpit) instead of sucked out the back.

I think many of us can agree that there is some level of sucking that is taking place. (We're still trash talking, right?)

[cato]

I'm surprised at all the negativity towards Gatsby. I loved Strictly Ballroom, Bill's Romeo + Juliet and Moulin Rouge, and was intrigued by the longer trailer for Gatsby. I sure hope it doesn't end up competing for the raspberry poll.

[Lord Ash]

Can't believe all the "hate" for a Pacific Rim. I really think it will do well!

[CameronBornAndBred]

I'm surprised at all the negativity towards Gatsby. I loved Strictly Ballroom, Bill's Romeo + Juliet and Moulin Rouge, and was intrigued by the longer trailer for Gatsby. I sure hope it doesn't end up competing for the raspberry poll.

I'm not being "negative" towards Gatsby. It will probably be a good movie. I didn't see Moulin Rouge, but I enjoyed seeing R&J and his updates to setting. I just don't think there will be a large enough audience for it to do well as a summer movie. I have no interest in seeing it, and I know kids won't want to see it, and many couples will have other choices on movie night. (The guy on most dates is going to be arguing "no" and vote popcorn flick or comedy instead.)