Marshall Plumlee

[Duke31122]

I feel next year Marshall could have a bigger impact than most people expect. This year he was listed as 7'0 245lbs. If he can build an extra 10-15 lbs onto that frame in the off season as well as develop his skill set some more. He could have a true impact on our games next year. He was the number 35 overall recruit coming out of HS, not to mention he was NC Gatorade Player of the Year and an McDonalds All American. The talent is there. Also technically he is a Junior, but he redshirted his Freshman year so he now has 3 years to contribute in the middle. Him along with Hood, Jefferson, Parker, Hairston, and Murphy should make for a great rotation of bigs.

[rsvman]

I certainly hope you're right.

When he's out there, he looks like a little like a giant Golden Retriever puppy, running this way and that, jumping up and down, just excited to be alive. I think for him to contribute in a meaningful way he's going to have to calm down a little.

[bbosbbos]

I am not sure if Marshall can play major role in next season. I heard that big men usually develop a lot slower.

[Kedsy]

I feel next year Marshall could have a bigger impact than most people expect. This year he was listed as 7'0 245lbs. If he can build an extra 10-15 lbs onto that frame in the off season as well as develop his skill set some more. He could have a true impact on our games next year. He was the number 35 overall recruit coming out of HS, not to mention he was NC Gatorade Player of the Year and an McDonalds All American. The talent is there. Also technically he is a Junior, but he redshirted his Freshman year so he now has 3 years to contribute in the middle. Him along with Hood, Jefferson, Parker, Hairston, and Murphy should make for a great rotation of bigs.

Marshall was ranked #34 by one service, but his overall RSCI rank was #61, meaning most other services didn't agree he was as strong a prospect as the one outlier did.

He will begin to have an impact on the game when the game slows down for him. In his brief time on the court this season, it was obvious the game was moving more quickly than he could react to it. He was slow to get into his defensive position, slow to react with help defense, slow to get in the proper position to set a screen, slow to understand where to be for rebounding position.

This is common with freshmen, and I have confidence that he will improve greatly over time. For one thing, whether or not he was really one of our top six or seven players (as Coach K said publicly) before he was injured, you'd think he must have been practicing significantly better than he played in games for Coach K to make such a comment. So I believe he'll get there.

Whether he gets there in 2013-14 is very difficult to say at this point. It's possible he'll have a breakthrough this off-season and step right into the starting lineup. More likely it will take time, and we can look forward to Marshall taking on a more prominent role in his junior and senior seasons.

[CDu]

I feel next year Marshall could have a bigger impact than most people expect. This year he was listed as 7'0 245lbs. If he can build an extra 10-15 lbs onto that frame in the off season as well as develop his skill set some more. He could have a true impact on our games next year. He was the number 35 overall recruit coming out of HS, not to mention he was NC Gatorade Player of the Year and an McDonalds All American. The talent is there. Also technically he is a Junior, but he redshirted his Freshman year so he now has 3 years to contribute in the middle. Him along with Hood, Jefferson, Parker, Hairston, and Murphy should make for a great rotation of bigs.

He was actually the #61 recruit out of high school per RSCI (which is a composite of all the major scouting services). And we know that after the top-25 recruiting rankings are a crapshoot.

I can't think of very many players who played so little and so ineffectively one year who then came in and were major contributors the next year. Kelly is probably the closest comp, and even Kelly played double the minutes and was much more productive. And even Kelly only averaged 20.1mpg, 6.6ppg, and 3.7rpg in his next season.

I think there is potential in Marshall. He certainly has the size, quickness, and leaping ability to eventually make an impact. But he was simply not close to ready to play at an ACC level this year, and I think expecting much more than 10-15mpg from him next year is taking a VERY optimistic view.

[Duke31122]

Marshall was ranked #34 by one service, but his overall RSCI rank was #61, meaning most other services didn't agree he was as strong a prospect as the one outlier did.

He will begin to have an impact on the game when the game slows down for him. In his brief time on the court this season, it was obvious the game was moving more quickly than he could react to it. He was slow to get into his defensive position, slow to react with help defense, slow to get in the proper position to set a screen, slow to understand where to be for rebounding position.

This is common with freshmen, and I have confidence that he will improve greatly over time. For one thing, whether or not he was really one of our top six or seven players (as Coach K said publicly) before he was injured, you'd think he must have been practicing significantly better than he played in games for Coach K to make such a comment. So I believe he'll get there.

Whether he gets there in 2013-14 is very difficult to say at this point. It's possible he'll have a breakthrough this off-season and step right into the starting lineup. More likely it will take time, and we can look forward to Marshall taking on a more prominent role in his junior and senior seasons.

That is true, big men do develop slower. The other thing is the game will slow down for him once he gets regular playing time, which I think he will be a regular sub next year. The starting 5 is probably Cook, Sulaimon, Hood, Parker, and Jefferson. I figure he will rotate in along with Hairston to give us depth. He should be solid for us. I'm not expecting anything spectacular, but a 7'0 260 man in the middle would be a great thing to have.

[jcastranio]

I think Marshall will be better and more effective next year. I think that, in games against teams with strong, powerful back-to-the-basket post play, Marshall will be a key player. Still not a big scoring threat, but a key player. Against teams with smaller, quicker lineups, I see Marshall's minutes drop dramatically. That may not be the case his final two years, but next year ... Part of that will be his learning curve playing against smaller, quicker line-ups and part of that will simply be that we will have a better option to put on the court against smaller line-ups.

You can't develop size.

[jimsumner]

The sample size is pretty small for over-arching conclusions. He missed all of the pre-season with a broken foot and never got back up to speed.

After that, he played in two contexts. Sometimes, he would come in for Mason, usually a possession or two, built around a media timeout, just long enough for Mason to catch his breath. Marshall's job was to be a place-holder. Don't make a mistake.

Hard to get any rhythm in that role.

Or, he would come in at the end of an already decided game, in which Duke was burning clock and the crowd was either shouting for Duke to put in Todd Zafirovski or shouting for Zafirovski to "shoot it, shoot it," every time he touched the ball.

Hard to get any rhythm in that role.

In other words, he never really played long enough in a conventional game for us to get an accurate read. And he was backing up the nation's best big man, so how much did we want him to play?

Yes, the game will get easier for him when he gets more comfortable and it slows down for him. The same can be said for Jefferson and Murphy.

Marshall isn't an uber athlete like his brothers. He's more of a traditional back-to-the-basket, low-post player. He won't be finishing fast breaks or jumping to Jupiter to grab errant lobs.

But his work ethic and smarts have been praised by his coaches and teammates, which leads me to believe that he'll develop into a solid ACC center, maybe better than solid.

I sure wouldn't write him off.

[azzefkram]

The sample size is pretty small for over-arching conclusions. He missed all of the pre-season with a broken foot and never got back up to speed.

After that, he played in two contexts. Sometimes, he would come in for Mason, usually a possession or two, built around a media timeout, just long enough for Mason to catch his breath. Marshall's job was to be a place-holder. Don't make a mistake.

Hard to get any rhythm in that role.

Or, he would come in at the end of an already decided game, in which Duke was burning clock and the crowd was either shouting for Duke to put in Todd Zafirovski or shouting for Zafirovski to "shoot it, shoot it," every time he touched the ball.

Hard to get any rhythm in that role.

In other words, he never really played long enough in a conventional game for us to get an accurate read. And he was backing up the nation's best big man, so how much did we want him to play?

Yes, the game will get easier for him when he gets more comfortable and it slows down for him. The same can be said for Jefferson and Murphy.

Marshall isn't an uber athlete like his brothers. He's more of a traditional back-to-the-basket, low-post player. He won't be finishing fast breaks or jumping to Jupiter to grab errant lobs.

But his work ethic and smarts have been praised by his coaches and teammates, which leads me to believe that he'll develop into a solid ACC center, maybe better than solid.

I sure wouldn't write him off.

I couldn't agree more. I think that MPIII will be a solid contributor next year and a pleasant surprise to many on this board. Given the projected/guessed starters at the 1 through 4, he shouldn't have to shoulder much.

[timmy c]

The real question is, will we see MPIII in the roll he does best? You know, holding the mic and clowning for the camera in blue devil planet videos! Man he is so funny!

[MCFinARL]

The real question is, will we see MPIII in the roll he does best? You know, holding the mic and clowning for the camera in blue devil planet videos! Man he is so funny!

Just let them try to keep him away from that mic! I doubt it can be done.

[BD80]

... You can't develop size.

Well, Sean May used a Krispy Kreme regimen to develop considerable size ... Oh, you mean height

The sample size is pretty small for over-arching conclusions. He missed all of the pre-season with a broken foot and never got back up to speed. ...

... And he was backing up the nation's best big man, so how much did we want him to play?

Yes, the game will get easier for him when he gets more comfortable and it slows down for him. The same can be said for Jefferson and Murphy.

Marshall isn't an uber athlete like his brothers. He's more of a traditional back-to-the-basket, low-post player. He won't be finishing fast breaks or jumping to Jupiter to grab errant lobs.

But his work ethic and smarts have been praised by his coaches and teammates, which leads me to believe that he'll develop into a solid ACC center, maybe better than solid.

I sure wouldn't write him off.

It also appears he won't be burdened with unrealistic expectations ...

What amuses me is how similar the discussion of Marshall is to the discussions that appeared on the board prior to the second half of Zoubek's senior season. I'm not saying he is the next Zoubek, or that his path will be similar.

Like Zoubek, Marshall offers attributes that others on the team do not have, and which may may set him apart from ACC competition. At some point, the discussion may flip from whether Marshall can match-up against others, to whether others can match up against Marshall.

[moonpie23]

the officials have PLENTY of Plumlee fouls left over from MP1 and MP2....in fact, Marshall just fouled out of the season opener...


all kidding aside, MP3 will have to work on his footwork and timing....AND handling a lot of minutes learning how NOT to be out of position...

the guy is a specimen...if he can shed the jitters, he might just surprise everyone...

[jimsumner]

If one has followed Duke basketball for any period of time, one can come up with plenty of examples of big men who started off slowly but developed nicely. Alaa Abdelnaby and Miles Plumlee played 191 and 165 minutes respectively as freshmen and both developed into first-round NBA picks. Eric Meek played 143 as a freshman and he became a second-round pick. The Brian Zoubek everyone now reveres played all of 235.

But he had a bad foot. Imagine if Marshall had the same malady.

Let's go outside the Duke realm for a minute.

Here are the freshman stats of a non-Duke 7-footer.

15 GP
45 MP
7-13 FG
5-9 FT
1.3 ppg
1.4 rpg
7 fouls
0 assists, 3 turnovers

Anyone want to guess the name of this clumsy, clueless kid, clearly heading for obscurity?

Pat yourself on the back if you guessed Jeff Withey.

Withey played 6.2 mpg as a sophomore, btw.

Yes, he was playing behind some talent. As was Marshall Plumlee.

I'm not remotely suggesting Marshall Plumlee will turn out to be as good as Withey, although that would be nice. But I'm sure a lot of Kansas fans were ready to write him off early in his career. Writing off Marshall Plumlee at a comparable point makes about as much sense.

[OldSchool]

Jim Sumner is right in his comments above. It doesn't make sense to try to evaluate Marshall's ability to contribute based mainly on his stats for this year.

It looked to me that after the foot injury Marshall's bodyfat percentage went up (natural while recovering from injury) and he lost a bit of nimbleness. He didn't look to me like he was moving as well as before the injury.

I don't think Marshall needs to gain a lot of weight in the offseason. Of course, he should continue to try to get stronger. I would suggest working on quickness and agility along with other points people have mentioned above. He needs to be able to run the floor well to fit in well with the group of athletes we will have on the floor next year. Mason was very good at running the floor and Marshall should look to Mason's example in that regard.

If we do not get a big man transfer, I expect Marshall to start a number of games. With occasional foul trouble and inconsistent play, I would expect Amile and Josh to also get lots of minutes at the 5, and in some games to start ahead of Marshall.

[Kedsy]

Withey played 6.2 mpg as a sophomore, btw.

This is the most relevant point for the current discussion. I don't think many Duke fans are writing Marshall off forever. The question at hand is how much will he contribute next year, his sophomore season? I don't think any of the guys you mention ended up as major contributors in their sophomore seasons.

If Marshall plays 6 mpg, like Withey did, I think that would jibe with many people's expectations for him, with that total increasing to rotation and/or starter's minutes in his junior and senior seasons. I also think we'd all hope for him to make the jump sooner and be a starter next year, but hope and belief are not often the same thing. Obviously we won't know how much off-season progress he makes until the off-season is over.

[Ichabod Drain]

This is the most relevant point for the current discussion. I don't think many Duke fans are writing Marshall off forever. The question at hand is how much will he contribute next year, his sophomore season? I don't think any of the guys you mention ended up as major contributors in their sophomore seasons.

If Marshall plays 6 mpg, like Withey did, I think that would jibe with many people's expectations for him, with that total increasing to rotation and/or starter's minutes in his junior and senior seasons. I also think we'd all hope for him to make the jump sooner and be a starter next year, but hope and belief are not often the same thing. Obviously we won't know how much off-season progress he makes until the off-season is over.

The only difference was Withey was playing behind the Morris twins and Thomas Robinson so there wasn't a huge need for him. We don't have that luxury. Though i agree 6-8 mpg for Marshall would be good development.

[azzefkram]

This is the most relevant point for the current discussion. I don't think many Duke fans are writing Marshall off forever. The question at hand is how much will he contribute next year, his sophomore season? I don't think any of the guys you mention ended up as major contributors in their sophomore seasons.

If Marshall plays 6 mpg, like Withey did, I think that would jibe with many people's expectations for him, with that total increasing to rotation and/or starter's minutes in his junior and senior seasons. I also think we'd all hope for him to make the jump sooner and be a starter next year, but hope and belief are not often the same thing. Obviously we won't know how much off-season progress he makes until the off-season is over.

The only monkey wrench I'd throw into this is Marshall will be a redshirt sophomore.

[CDu]

This is the most relevant point for the current discussion. I don't think many Duke fans are writing Marshall off forever. The question at hand is how much will he contribute next year, his sophomore season? I don't think any of the guys you mention ended up as major contributors in their sophomore seasons.

If Marshall plays 6 mpg, like Withey did, I think that would jibe with many people's expectations for him, with that total increasing to rotation and/or starter's minutes in his junior and senior seasons. I also think we'd all hope for him to make the jump sooner and be a starter next year, but hope and belief are not often the same thing. Obviously we won't know how much off-season progress he makes until the off-season is over.

Yeah, I agree. I don't think anyone is saying that Marshall can't develop into a productive player by his junior and senior years. I think folks are just saying that it's unlikely that he'll be terribly productive next year.

If Marshall can give us 8-12 solid mpg next year, I'll have every confidence that he'll be an impact player by his junior or senior year. But I think it's unfair to him to burden him with the expectation that he'll suddenly jump to a productive player next year.

The only monkey wrench I'd throw into this is Marshall will be a redshirt sophomore.

That 6.2 mpg was in Withey's redshirt sophomore year, too. Like Marshall, Withey redshirted his freshman year (in Withey's case due to transfer). Like Marshall, Withey played ~2-3 mpg on a team with a senior all-conference center. Now, Withey was more productive than Marshall was in his similarly-limited time as a redshirt freshman (shooting over 50% from the field, rebounding and blocking shots at a higher rate). But that's neither here nor there. The point is that Withey (in spite of being more productive than Marshall) still only managed 6.2 mpg as a redshirt sophomore. As a redshirt junior he jumped to 25 mpg and became a defensive force.

That's the kind of timeline I expect for Marshall. I expect him to struggle a bit next year and then find his role as a redshirt junior.

[lotusland]

I predict Marshall will be all ACC first team his senior year and next year he'll take a big step in that direction. One piece of the puzzle for almost every Duke big man is learning to bang in the post without constantly fouling. I don't think Marshall can be expected to do that next year. We had issues with depth in the post this year even when Ryan was healthy so next year it will be a more prominent weakness even if Marshall is ready to be the starting center (I think he will).

I know Josh will be a solid reserve but he is also foul prone. If we don't pick up a grad student transfer I actually think Alex may be a better option than Amile to steal a few minutes or burn some fouls if necessary.