The Way Too Early 2013-2014 Top 25

[CDu]

MSU and Louisville.

And they do not mention Wiggins in their write up of uncch. I found it a little strange. I guess he is trying to set up a possible "I was the one who got it right" moment if unc exceeds expectations.

I guess purely from a "how many key players are returning from a good team last year" perspective, one might be able to make that argument. And it certainly seems like that's the angle he's using with regard to Louisville and MSU. But I think UNC was sufficiently behind Duke to begin with, and I think we've added much more than they have (though we lost much more than they did). I wouldn't put UNC in the discussion of the elites unless they get Wiggins. I wouldn't even put UNC in the discussion of ACC elites without Wiggins.

[gumbomoop]

I wouldn't even put UNC in the discussion of ACC elites without Wiggins.

I think more highly of the Heels' way-early prospects than do you, and your "not even ... in the discussion" is pretty firm, but just for the sake of conversation ....

Duke seems logical way-early ACC #1, both among EK posters and national way-early predictions. So, assuming Wiggins chooses neither FSU nor UNC, do you have Duke, Syracuse, UVa, and ND as the elites clearly ahead of [= in the discussion that Heels aren't in] - UNC? Others, too?

Go 'Noles.

[Kedsy]

I think more highly of the Heels' way-early prospects than do you, and your "not even ... in the discussion" is pretty firm, but just for the sake of conversation ....

Duke seems logical way-early ACC #1, both among EK posters and national way-early predictions. So, assuming Wiggins chooses neither FSU nor UNC, do you have Duke, Syracuse, UVa, and ND as the elites clearly ahead of [= in the discussion that Heels aren't in] - UNC? Others, too?

Go 'Noles.

It possibly depends on your definition of "elites." Should UNC (w/o Wiggins) be in the conversation of teams that could finish 3rd or 4th in the ACC? Probably. But that doesn't sound like an "elite" to me.

[CDu]

I think more highly of the Heels' way-early prospects than do you, and your "not even ... in the discussion" is pretty firm, but just for the sake of conversation ....

Duke seems logical way-early ACC #1, both among EK posters and national way-early predictions. So, assuming Wiggins chooses neither FSU nor UNC, do you have Duke, Syracuse, UVa, and ND as the elites clearly ahead of [= in the discussion that Heels aren't in] - UNC? Others, too?

Go 'Noles.

I would put Duke, Syracuse, and possibly UVa above UNC without Wiggins. I don't know enough about what Notre Dame will put on the court next year (I know they lose a lot), so I wouldn't put them ahead of UNC.

I don't think UNC will be bad by any means. But I don't think they should be in the discussion of teams that could win the title. I mean, I'd say they have only an outside chance at winning the ACC regular season title.

[licc85]

It's interesting that most of these "way too early polls" have UNC in the 10-13 range. Still not sure what that's based on . . . I'm just not seeing the potential in McAdoo, I guess. He's been wildly overrated pretty much his entire career. PJ Hairston is the best guy on the team, and he'd be like the 4th best guy on Duke's team (If that). Paige is ok, but he's not even close to the same level as Lawson, Felton, or even Marshall. Dick Vitale wrote a rankings column and said they'd be top 5 is Bullock came back . . . hah . . . no. They should be better than last year, but probably more like in the #20-25 range.

[dukelifer]

It's interesting that most of these "way too early polls" have UNC in the 10-13 range. Still not sure what that's based on . . . I'm just not seeing the potential in McAdoo, I guess. He's been wildly overrated pretty much his entire career. PJ Hairston is the best guy on the team, and he'd be like the 4th best guy on Duke's team (If that). Paige is ok, but he's not even close to the same level as Lawson, Felton, or even Marshall. Dick Vitale wrote a rankings column and said they'd be top 5 is Bullock came back . . . hah . . . no. They should be better than last year, but probably more like in the #20-25 range.

Folks probably would have said the same about Mason after his sophomore year. Players get better. McAdoo will get better this summer and I expect that he will be a more consistent player next year. Hairston has already shown great improvement and is ACC player of the year caliber. Paige will be a much more confident player next season. Make no mistake, UNC has the makings to be a deep and excellent team. They have a ton of talent.

[TruBlu]

Folks probably would have said the same about Mason after his sophomore year. Players get better. McAdoo will get better this summer and I expect that he will be a more consistent player next year. Hairston has already shown great improvement and is ACC player of the year caliber. Paige will be a much more confident player next season. Make no mistake, UNC has the makings to be a deep and excellent team. They have a ton of talent.

But maybe next year, folks on DBR can refrain from giving Roy coaching tips . . . such as last year telling him that he should play "small ball".

[Kedsy]

Folks probably would have said the same about Mason after his sophomore year. Players get better. McAdoo will get better this summer and I expect that he will be a more consistent player next year.

Well, they may have said it, but the comparison isn't very apt. Mason's only big jumps between his sophomore and junior seasons were in usage rate (from 17.1 to 22.4) and free throw rate (from 48.9 to 70.4; note that I am NOT talking about FT%, but in the rate that Mason got to the line). JMM has already made the usage jump, as he was used an absurdly high 27.2% (absurdly high because of his very low offensive efficiency). In order to become a much better player, JMM would have to become much more efficient, and my guess is the only way that happens is if his usage goes way down, which would probably mean fewer counting stats for him. In other words, folks expecting a huge jump from JMM this season have a decent chance of being disappointed.

[CDu]

Well, they may have said it, but the comparison isn't very apt. Mason's only big jumps between his sophomore and junior seasons were in usage rate (from 17.1 to 22.4) and free throw rate (from 48.9 to 70.4; note that I am NOT talking about FT%, but in the rate that Mason got to the line). JMM has already made the usage jump, as he was used an absurdly high 27.2% (absurdly high because of his very low offensive efficiency). In order to become a much better player, JMM would have to become much more efficient, and my guess is the only way that happens is if his usage goes way down, which would probably mean fewer counting stats for him. In other words, folks expecting a huge jump from JMM this season have a decent chance of being disappointed.

I agree with everything you said except for the "only" part.

Here's my view of McAdoo as a player:
- very athletic with good size/strength for the PF spot (and enough size/strength for the C spot in a pinch)
- Minimal actual basketball skill (besides running and jumping)

When McAdoo has an uncontested path to the rim, he looks very impressive. If he has to make any sort of decision with the ball in his hands, he doesn't look impressive. He doesn't dribble well, doesn't pass well, and is possibly the worst shooter of any upper-tier player I've ever seen. I don't think I'm even being overly dramatic in saying that. I've honestly never seen a guy take and miss (by feet) so many 10-15 foot jumpers.

That being said, he has, occasionally, made some really nice jumpers. If he can figure out how to shoot more consistently and he can figure out a pump fake move then I think he could be a very effective post player. Being able to hit even 40% of those jumpers would require teams to at least respect the pump fake. And if players bite on the pump fake, then McAdoo has the athleticism to get to the rim.

Now, whether or not McAdoo can shoot better and master the use of the pump fake is a BIG if at this point. I mean, he's shown no offensive growth in his two years at UNC, so it would have to be a leap of faith to assume it'll happen this year. But IF he does, I think he could get much more efficient without reducing his usage rate.

[Kedsy]

I agree with everything you said except for the "only" part.

Here's my view of McAdoo as a player:
- very athletic with good size/strength for the PF spot (and enough size/strength for the C spot in a pinch)
- Minimal actual basketball skill (besides running and jumping)

When McAdoo has an uncontested path to the rim, he looks very impressive. If he has to make any sort of decision with the ball in his hands, he doesn't look impressive. He doesn't dribble well, doesn't pass well, and is possibly the worst shooter of any upper-tier player I've ever seen. I don't think I'm even being overly dramatic in saying that. I've honestly never seen a guy take and miss (by feet) so many 10-15 foot jumpers.

That being said, he has, occasionally, made some really nice jumpers. If he can figure out how to shoot more consistently and he can figure out a pump fake move then I think he could be a very effective post player. Being able to hit even 40% of those jumpers would require teams to at least respect the pump fake. And if players bite on the pump fake, then McAdoo has the athleticism to get to the rim.

Now, whether or not McAdoo can shoot better and master the use of the pump fake is a BIG if at this point. I mean, he's shown no offensive growth in his two years at UNC, so it would have to be a leap of faith to assume it'll happen this year. But IF he does, I think he could get much more efficient without reducing his usage rate.

You may be right. The "only" was preceded by "my guess is."

JMM's eFG% was essentially the same his first two years (43.3% and 44.4%), and as you suggest is pretty low for an interior player. Mason's jump in this area was between his freshman year (eFG% of 47.1%) to sophomore year (58.9%) and that happened without a change in usage. But, sure, if JMM suddenly learns how to shoot (and shoot under pressure), his efficiency would go up. My guess, however (and of course this is just a guess), is that if he continues to be used at a rate of 25+ he'll continue to take marginal shots and continue to miss them.

[gofurman]

Folks probably would have said the same about Mason after his sophomore year. Players get better. McAdoo will get better this summer and I expect that he will be a more consistent player next year. Hairston has already shown great improvement and is ACC player of the year caliber. Paige will be a much more confident player next season. Make no mistake, UNC has the makings to be a deep and excellent team. They have a ton of talent.

Agree with lifer - look at how much Hairston improved.. most to the others - Paige etc will improve a lot this summer. Any time you have 4 or your best 6 players returning its a good thing. Paige improves, Hairston improves - scary, McAdoo improves etc they are a v good team. Do not ever overlook Carolina. ever. And the thing they were missing - a center - all could improve... I think they have 3 options there now? One of them will at least fill the spot decently. Add all that up and you have a v good team. Not a National Champ but a v good team.

Look at our own improvement this year over last. Yes, I know, we had a semi-healthy Kelly this year and Cook and Suliamon but a lot was due to the improvement of Mason and Curry. I would almost always take a returning improved player over a hyped freshman. Austin Rivers, for all he did, wasnt the answer. There are exceptions - Kyrie, Brand, etc but most top 20 guys take a year to hit the college level. Good example is Amile - he was top 25ish - and I bet he is much better next year. We lost way more than UNC. I hope hood and Parker can hit the ground running.

[CDu]

You may be right. The "only" was preceded by "my guess is."

JMM's eFG% was essentially the same his first two years (43.3% and 44.4%), and as you suggest is pretty low for an interior player. Mason's jump in this area was between his freshman year (eFG% of 47.1%) to sophomore year (58.9%) and that happened without a change in usage. But, sure, if JMM suddenly learns how to shoot (and shoot under pressure), his efficiency would go up. My guess, however (and of course this is just a guess), is that if he continues to be used at a rate of 25+ he'll continue to take marginal shots and continue to miss them.

Oh I tend to agree, and I didn't mean that as a critique of your previous post (just wanted to expand off of your thoughts). It would be quite something for McAdoo to dramatically improve as a jumpshooter considering that he has not done so at all in his two years at UNC. I think that your guess is the odds-on favorite for most likely way that McAdoo can become more efficient.

Note that Mason's jump in FG% was partially due to his cutting down on shooting jumpshots. The guy took 8 threes and countless long twos as a freshman. As a sophomore, playing in double the minutes, he attempted only 2 threes and fewer long twos as well. By cutting down on his bad shots and focusing on his shots near the rim, Mason's FG% skyrocketed.

Of course, Mason had the benefit of being taller and a bit more post-capable than McAdoo (McAdoo has zero post game). So the decision to cut down on the jumpers and focus on play around the basket played to Mason's strengths. I'd argue that such a move WOULDN'T play to McAdoo's strengths, as he is not comfortable posting up. He's essentially a face-up player without a face-up game. As such, he'll either have to cut down on his usage (i.e., just play off the ball and only take catch-and-finish opportunities) or he'll have to develop his face-up game (which is not easy).

My suspicion is that we'll see similar (perhaps slightly less) inefficiency and similar count stats next year.

[CDu]

Agree with lifer - look at how much Hairston improved.. most to the others - Paige etc will improve a lot this summer. Any time you have 4 or your best 6 players returning its a good thing. Paige improves, Hairston improves - scary, McAdoo improves etc they are a v good team. Do not ever overlook Carolina. ever. And the thing they were missing - a center - all could improve... I think they have 3 options there now? One of them will at least fill the spot decently. Add all that up and you have a v good team. Not a National Champ but a v good team.

Look at our own improvement this year over last. Yes, I know, we had a semi-healthy Kelly this year and Cook and Suliamon but a lot was due to the improvement of Mason and Curry. I would almost always take a returning improved player over a hyped freshman. Austin Rivers, for all he did, wasnt the answer. There are exceptions - Kyrie, Brand, etc but most top 20 guys take a year to hit the college level. Good example is Amile - he was top 25ish - and I bet he is much better next year. We lost way more than UNC. I hope hood and Parker can hit the ground running.

We also gained way more than UNC (without Wiggins), both in terms of freshmen and Hood (and possibly a 5th-year transfer). And your argument that "well, UNC guys could improve" should also apply to our guys. Couldn't Sulaimon and Cook make the jump to stardom? Couldn't Jefferson or Murphy or Plumlee make a big jump? Couldn't someone else? I mean, if we're going to assume that anyone could improve by any amount, then virtually every team in the country has to be in the discussion. Or, we could just assume a reasonable uptick in performance from the returning players (similar across the board) and just instead focus on what was lost versus what is gained.