Top 5 Movies of Summer

[JasonEvans]

If you didn't vote for Iron Man3, you lose. Then again, if you did not vote for Iron Man 3, you probably were not taking this contest seriously.

Hollywood is projecting it is going to make $150-$170 million... in the next 3 days. HUGE!

It also appears Star Trek: Into Darkness is going to live up to its "Top 5 lock" reputation. Early reviews are starting to come in for JJ Abrams second Star Trek flick and they are very good. I just got done reading Variety's glowing review.

A sequel in every respect equal or even superior to its splendid 2009 predecessor. Markedly grander in scale, although never at the expense of its richly human (and half-human) characters, “Into Darkness” may not boldly go where no “Trek” adventure has gone before, but getting there is such a well-crafted, immensely pleasurable ride that it would be positively Vulcan to nitpick.

-Jason "Early May is easy to predict... June and early July will decide this contest" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

It's not on our list, but opening May 31 is a movie: Now You See Me.

It has a great trailer (at least to me):

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/now_...lers/11177757/

and an awesome cast -- Mark Ruffalo, Morgan Freeman, Michael Caine, Jesse Eisenberg (I think he's the nominal "star"), Woody Harrelson, Isla Fisher, Melainie Laurent, Jake Gyllenhaal, Amanda Seyfeid and the rapper Common.

My biggest concern is the director -- Louis Leterrier, whose great accomplishments involve the two Transporter movies, Clash of Titans and the 2008 Hulk. Not a great resume. And the writers -- Ed Soloman (well, he did write the two Bill & Ted movies and the original Men in Black) and Boaz Yakim (Prince of Persia?).

Still too early for any reviews ... but I wonder if any of our movie experts (Jason?) have heard any buzz?

[davekay1971]

Well, that settles the question of who's number 1 for the summer...

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

Without clicking the link: Iron Man 3 projected for a $175,300,000 opening weekend. Now the only thing left to determine whether it ends up significantly north of $400M, as opposed to just right at about $400M, will be the cinemascore given by viewers who have seen it. If it ends up with an A cinemascore (or close to that), I'd say it'll be a lock to finish well north of $400M.

[Udaman]

The general rule of thumb is that you multiply the opening weekend by about 2.5 to get the final figure. So if a movie makes 100M it finishes around 250. A highly scored movie does 3 times. The rare movie opens small but then Gets great word of mouth and does 5 times or more.

I think iron man 3 will end up about doubling
It's opening weekend which will but it around 360. It won't get as many repeat customers and in 2 weeks Star Trek will steal its audience.

But a lock for top 5 which it was anyway.

[JasonEvans]

Now the only thing left to determine whether it ends up significantly north of $400M, as opposed to just right at about $400M, will be the cinemascore given by viewers who have seen it. If it ends up with an A cinemascore (or close to that), I'd say it'll be a lock to finish well north of $400M.

It got an A Cinemascore. It is going to make more than $400 mil, thought probably not a lot more than $400 mil... not that it really matters.

-Jason "I am hearing that early tracking is pegging Gatsby for about a $35-40 mil opening, which won't get it close to our Top 5 of summer unless it has Titanic-like legs" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I think iron man 3 will end up about doubling it's opening weekend which will but it around 360.

Care to place a wager on that? Lets set the over/under at $375 mil, ok? That is even higher than your are projecting. I get the over.

-Jason "loser changes their sig to praise the winner for one week - sound good?" Evans

[brevity]

The general rule of thumb is that you multiply the opening weekend by about 2.5 to get the final figure. So if a movie makes 100M it finishes around 250. A highly scored movie does 3 times. The rare movie opens small but then Gets great word of mouth and does 5 times or more.

I think iron man 3 will end up about doubling
It's opening weekend which will but it around 360. It won't get as many repeat customers and in 2 weeks Star Trek will steal its audience.

But a lock for top 5 which it was anyway.

Care to place a wager on that? Lets set the over/under at $375 mil, ok? That is even higher than your are projecting. I get the over.

-Jason "loser changes their sig to praise the winner for one week - sound good?" Evans

This is actually a pretty interesting bet, Udaman. If you look at Iron Man 3 as Iron Man 2 plus $50M, you end up with a box office of $362M. Iron Man 3 is showing on 127 fewer screens than its predecessor, so you can expect an increase next weekend just to maximize those second weekend numbers. (Iron Man 2 made $52M.) But notice that Star Trek Into Darkness is a much stronger third weekend opponent than Shrek Forever After was in 2010. Also notice that this year's Memorial Day weekend is a nightmare lineup for Iron Man 3, while Memorial Day 2010 gave us Sex and the City 2 and Prince of Persia. Iron Man 3 should have some okay legs for the following two weeks, and then Man of Steel opens.

So I guess I'm saying that it might come down to the second weekend. It should make a lot more than $52M, but not as much as the $103M picked up by The Avengers. Jason's $375M total is not a bad estimate.

One final note: The Avengers ended its box office run on September 30, 2012. Iron Man 2 ended its on August 15, 2010. Why the 6-week difference? Old-fashioned bragging rights. The Avengers was the biggest movie last summer and took several victory laps to squeeze every dollar out. In 2010, Toy Story 3 had already reached $400M by mid-August, so Iron Man 2 would have to settle for a distant second.

[Udaman]

Well...it's a sucker bet because it's at $175M right now, and there's ZERO competition this week, so it will definitely finish next weekend at nearly $300M. Then the weekend after that, it will be at $350M, and it will certainly pass $375M by the end of Memorial Day.

But sure, I'll take the bet. Even if it breaks $375M, and it probably will, it doesn't change the fact that it was a massive letdown for me and many others.

Also, one thing I just thought about...his armor (that he controlled with his mind) made it from Tenn to Miami in just a few minutes. That's flying roughy 10,000 miles per hour (and all with no propulsion system). Then the suits of armor from his California home, made it to Miami in less than 30 minutes (by airplane they would take just over four hours). Pretty stunning.

Uda "This is all JE's world and we are just living in it, as I start to get ready for sigs that praise him after losing this incredibly dumb bet on my part" man

[Udaman]

Oh, and by the way...The Great Gatsby? Stick a fork in it. This is one review that just came out:

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/articl...ake-flop-89511

I must admit I take some satisfaction in this movie's demise, as I truly hated the book in high school (when many in my class loved it). I've always felt like Gatsby was a total loser who wanted desperately to be liked, and was written in a way that basically said, "why don't you like him? He's as fake as the rest of you, but you still think you're better" which was basically a self-autobiographical claim for Fitzgerald himself.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Oh, and by the way...The Great Gatsby? Stick a fork in it. This is one review that just came out:

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/articl...ake-flop-89511

I must admit I take some satisfaction in this movie's demise, as I truly hated the book in high school (when many in my class loved it). I've always felt like Gatsby was a total loser who wanted desperately to be liked, and was written in a way that basically said, "why don't you like him? He's as fake as the rest of you, but you still think you're better" which was basically a self-autobiographical claim for Fitzgerald himself.

I came in here to find the "horrible reviews" thread that I posted a while ago, just to add these two tidbits that I found on Rottentomatoes. (So far, it's 1 fresh, 2 rotten.)

It's as if every bit of creativity dried up the moment the deal was signed.

This film marks the official moment in which Baz Luhrmann's signature style has become self-parody.

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_great_gatsby_2012/

[JasonEvans]

Well...it's a sucker bet because it's at $175M right now, and there's ZERO competition this week, so it will definitely finish next weekend at nearly $300M. Then the weekend after that, it will be at $350M, and it will certainly pass $375M by the end of Memorial Day.

But sure, I'll take the bet. Even if it breaks $375M, and it probably will, it doesn't change the fact that it was a massive letdown for me and many others.

Also, one thing I just thought about...his armor (that he controlled with his mind) made it from Tenn to Miami in just a few minutes. That's flying roughy 10,000 miles per hour (and all with no propulsion system). Then the suits of armor from his California home, made it to Miami in less than 30 minutes (by airplane they would take just over four hours). Pretty stunning.

Uda "This is all JE's world and we are just living in it, as I start to get ready for sigs that praise him after losing this incredibly dumb bet on my part" man

Hey, I only made this "sucker bet" because you put the $360 mil figure out there. I did not force it on you. I even gave you a $15 mil extension to $375

I won't be completel shocked if you win, by the way. It is still early enough in the summer that the mid-week numbers won't be off the charts. But, if I was a Vegas casino trying to get equal amounts of money on both sides of an over/under, I would probably set the number at $400 mil.

I agree there there were some real moments of implausibility and, frankly, lazy screenwriting in the film. I think the final 20-30 minutes are a bit of a mess, though we get fun battles/action to help cover it up. All the stuff about the suits was just "turn your brain off" fun and if you think about it, it becomes ludicrous.

Still, it got an A Cinemascore and the buzz is strong. Any movie that opens this big, with Saturday and Sunday numbers that show good holding power from Friday, is getting good word of mouth. I suspect there is going to be a "you need to see this movie to be a part of the water cooler conversation" kind of thing with this film that is going to ensure continued strong boxoffice.

If nothing else, tracking the path to $375 mil will give us something to do over the next couple weeks as we watch Gatsby bomb (I predict a $35 mil opening) and await the Star Trek juggernaut (I am hearing it is a really good film, maybe better than the last Trek).

-Jason "Thanks for playing along, Udaman!" Evans

[Udaman]

I definitely started this....

Like I said, I predict by next weekend IM3 is sitting at $290M total. If it's there, I have a chance. If it's higher, I'm toast.

Star Trek is going to pummel it into the ground. That weekend, it will be lucky to do more than $40M...if that. So it will be around $340M when all is said and done. That's going to be enough, and it will beat the mark by the end of Memorial Day, so I'm going to lose. But yes, it will at least get me through this weekend (which is the only weekend where there's not a movie that I'm excited about going to see until the end of July).

[94duke]

Pacino quits Despicable Me 2.
Replaced by Benjamin Pratt.
http://social.entertainment.msn.com/...benjamin-bratt

[BD80]

Pacino quits Despicable Me 2.
Replaced by Benjamin Pratt.
http://social.entertainment.msn.com/...benjamin-bratt

Does this mean that the film, due to be released this summer, isn't finished? they hadn't even begun recording the villian voice-over?

[CameronBornAndBred]

Does this mean that the film, due to be released this summer, isn't finished? they hadn't even begun recording the villian voice-over?

From the last paragraph...

Will Benjamin Bratt be forced to re-dub all of Pacino's lines, matching his cadence and delivery? Or could the animators possibly do some last-second changes to his character's facial schematics, allowing Bratt literally more room to breathe? Only time—and the finished product—will tell. Until then

[bjornolf]

That's very unfortunate. I was looking forward to a cartoon Pacino, and this movie. The change will definitely hurt.

[CameronBornAndBred]

That's very unfortunate. I was looking forward to a cartoon Pacino, and this movie. The change will definitely hurt.

Kids won't care. (Hell, I won't care, but mostly kids won't care and they are mostly why parents will go. Twice.)

[JasonEvans]

It's not on our list, but opening May 31 is a movie: Now You See Me.

It has a great trailer (at least to me):

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/now_...lers/11177757/

and an awesome cast -- Mark Ruffalo, Morgan Freeman, Michael Caine, Jesse Eisenberg (I think he's the nominal "star"), Woody Harrelson, Isla Fisher, Melainie Laurent, Jake Gyllenhaal, Amanda Seyfeid and the rapper Common.

My biggest concern is the director -- Louis Leterrier, whose great accomplishments involve the two Transporter movies, Clash of Titans and the 2008 Hulk. Not a great resume. And the writers -- Ed Soloman (well, he did write the two Bill & Ted movies and the original Men in Black) and Boaz Yakim (Prince of Persia?).

Still too early for any reviews ... but I wonder if any of our movie experts (Jason?) have heard any buzz?

They just released the first 4 minutes of the film to Fandango. Have a look--



I love the first trick. Not much of a fan of the rest of it, but it is setting up who these characters are.

-Jason "I am interested in seeing it -- if only because I am a huge fan of magic -- though I doubt much of the magic will be real tricks" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Iron Man 3 has done $11.2 million on Monday and Tuesday, obviously very healthy numbers. It is currently at $196 million and could pass $300 mil by the end of this weekend. It should be at $215-$220 mil by Friday and an $85 mil weekend would be a 52% drop-off from its opening $174 mil weekend. By comparison, Avengers dropped 50% in its second weekend, Iron Man 2 dropped 60%, and Iron Man dropped 48%. Seeing as Iron Man 3 is getting far better word of mouth and reviews than Iron Man 2, I think a mid-low 50s drop is pretty reasonable to expect, especially with no meaningful competition coming out.

Speaking of meaningful competition, Gatsby continues to get whacked kinda hard by the critics. It is currently at 38% on Rotten Tomatoes, a poor number that probably means bad word of mouth. Most forecasts seem to be for it to make mid-30s its opening weekend. I think it will struggle to even get to $100 million in total boxoffice.

-Jason "Udaman, I am pretty confident I will have our $375 mil bet won before the month is over" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

They just released the first 4 minutes of the film to Fandango. Have a look--



I love the first trick. Not much of a fan of the rest of it, but it is setting up who these characters are.

-Jason "I am interested in seeing it -- if only because I am a huge fan of magic -- though I doubt much of the magic will be real tricks" Evans

Thanks for the link.

You skepticism about "real" magic reminded me of a classic Hollywood story. Supposedly, Sam Goldwyn signed Edgar Bergen to a movie deal. One of his assistants complained the movie audences would never accept a ventriloquist on the screen -- "they'll assume it's trick photography" he said. Goldwyn (who usually plays the stoop in these stories), pointed out that Bergen was a RADIO star! How does a ventriloquist become a radio star? It's not about the reality, but about the illusion -- which pretty well describes magic.

I kind of expect that the "magic" in this movie will be film trickery ... it's all about the illusion. I remember in The Prestige how the two dueling magicians pulled off the same amazing trick -- and neither was really magic.

BTW: When I watched the first card trick, the one card I noticed flipping through the pack was the

Spoiler!

seven of diamonds

... when I went back and tried to see other cards, I did. But like the mark in the audience, the one I was first drawn to -- both times he flipped through -- was the

Spoiler!

seven of diamonds.

Pretty neat trick.

I like the setup of the four magicians -- one very smooth classic magician ... one very slick (if dishonest) mentalist ... and two somewhat incompetent magicians (I guess you could say one was a good con man).