Top 5 Movies of Summer

[davekay1971]

The more I think about it (and the voting indicates I'm probably not the only one), this summer is likely to come down to four locks and then either Despicable Me 2 or Hangover 3.

The locks, of course, look like Iron Man 3, Monsters U, Star Trek Into Darkness, and Superman Rebooted Again. I guess I'm still not 100% convinced that Superman is a lock, but the trailers look great and are likely to draw in a big opening weekend crowd...so if the movie is actually good, it'll do well.

Despicable Me did $251 million at the box office.

Hangover did $277 million, while Hangover 2 did a solid $254 million, though the downward trend is concerning for Hangover 3's prospects. I think Hangover 3's chances really come down to how much damage Hangover 2 did to the goodwill that Hangover generated. The trailers for Hangover 3 actually look really good.

To me, these two movies are almost a coin flip for number 5. Despicable Me comes out a little later in the summer, but has the July 4 weekend and that usually means good box office. Will The Lone Ranger eat into it's box office at all? I doubt it.

Hangover 3, meanwhile, could have a solid box office position, particularly if After Earth doesn't inspire a huge box office opening. It's got 3 weeks before a likely box office monster comes along (Superman), and I think it will crush and destroy The Internship (opening 2 weeks after Hangover) for the Big Adult Comedy Hit Of The Summer.

Wierdly enough, in the end Hangover 3 probably depends more on being good to succeed than does Despicable Me 2. Having the kiddie box office all to itself from July 3 on, Despicable Me 2 just has to go through all the same notes that its predecessor did (goofy good-bad guy, goofier bad-bad guy, funny yellow minions) to do well. Hangover 3 has to be funny, and show on its first weekend that it's both funnier than Hangover 2 AND not the same thing all over again. In other words, my vote rests on the hope that Hangover 3 will be good enough that people seeing it the first weekend will tell people who were underwhelmed by Hangover 2 that Hangover 3 is a return to Hangover's form.

In other words, I probably should have voted for Despicable Me 2...

[brevity]

The release of After Earth has been moved up a week, from June 7 to May 31.
http://insidemovies.ew.com/2013/04/1...-release-date/

None of the other films released on May 31 are in this poll, so I don't see an immediate effect. The move does two things: it leaves The Internship all alone on June 7, and it moves closer to Hangover III and Fast 6. It also makes me wonder if there will be more movement. Seriously, June 7 is just sitting there now. Maybe an August film swoops in?

[JasonEvans]

... sigh. I wish I had gone with a longshot, because some longshot always makes it. But, I didn't and I know I am going to fail. Sigh.

I picked the 3 mortal locks. Iron Man 3 (which will make something in the neighborhood of $400 million, perhaps more), Star Trek: Into Darkness (which will probably be close to $300 million), and Man of Steel (which will also likely be in the $300 mil range).

I then went with Pixar, because only a fool bets against Pixar. Monster's University may be coming along about 5-7 years too late to be a mortal lock to make $300 million, but it is a lock to make at least $250 million.

So, that only left pick #5... and there are a lot of contenders. Here are my top 4 in reverse order of my projected boxoffice.

4) Fast and Furious 6 - I am no fan of this series, but it has an audience and they loved Fast 5. It gets a mid-May release date, which should be a great thing, but there is going to be a ton of competition around it and I think it will have trouble finding public attention unless it is really great. I doubt it will be as the script was thrown together pretty fast. I bet it makes about $175 million.

3) The Wolverine - the Hollywood rumor mill says it is a decent script and Dir. James Mangold has made some good films (Identity, Walk The Line, Knight and Day). But, I am always fearful of taking a movie released so close to August. This film really only has about 3 weeks before many kids head back to school and that will severely depress weekday revenues. The Origins: Wolverine film made $180 million with a lousy script. Despite the bad will that film leaves behind, I think a better script should mean this one also makes $180 mil.

2) Hangover: Part III - I think the trailer looks just fantastic and it appears to be a largely different story from I and II. I think audiences will be starved for a raunchy comedy. If it were not for the bad vibes Part II generated, I would be all over this flick, but I think II killed this film's chances of making more than about $210 million. I also worry about the May 24 release date. May is really crowded with huge, huge films and it may be tough for Hang III to generate the kind of buzz it will need to reach the mid-200s. That said, I won't be surprised if I am wrong and it ends up being in the Top 5 if it is as good as the trailers look.

1) (My pick) Despicable Me 2 - The summer actually has fewer quality kid-focused, family-friendly movies than usual. This one comes out a couple weeks after Monster's U and will go largely unchallenged for the back half of the summer. I don't think Turbo (about a snail that wants to move fast) or Planes (originally a straight-to-DVD rip off of Cars that was not done by Pixar) is really much competition. Neither seem to be generating any buzz and I don't think they will have significant marketing budgets. So, I see DM2 as a film with long legs, perhaps all the way into late August. The original made $251 mill, a big number, and I can't come up with any reasons why it would not do about the same. So, I am predicting $240 mill for this flick, making it #5 in my top 5 list.

-Jason "I really, really, wanted to pick Hangover III, but I think timing of that May 24 release work against it almost as much as the timing of DM2's July 3 release work for that film" Evans

[Udaman]

My votes are in as well. I'll do my reverse order too.

8. Monsters U. You all seem to be drinking the Pixar kool-aid and not remembering a movie called Cars 2 that came out and only did $191M. Why? Because the movie was awful, and Pixar's first true attempt at "just make a movie that has the characters from the first movie and people will watch it." I've seen the previews for Monsters U....and all of them have been brutal. All of them. Monsters Inc did well because it was a great story, and adults went, and then went again. This movie just doesn't look funny. It looks like Cars 2. I think it greatly disappoints. I could certainly be wrong here, and this is my "pick a high seed to lose early" NCAA like pick, but I'm just not buying the hype.

7. World War Z. Brad Pitt. Zombies. Good story. What's not to like. $195M.

6. Fast and Furious. People really like this franchise, and again, the buzz is huge. I don't watch a lot of previews, but will watch them for movies I'm not planning on going to see (I haven't seen any of the Fast and Furious movies), but I watched this one and thought, "Hmmmm, maybe that's worth seeing after all." I think it does $220M.

5. Hangover 3. JE, I think you will be kicking yourself here. It's not just that the first two have done well. It's that this is really the ONLY dark comedy out there. The Intership isn't it. Neither is The End. People like to see a raunchy comedy (see Ted, 2012). This is the only true one out there. And again, the buzz is really, really good. It opens Memorial Day weekend, and I think it will have long legs. $260M

4. Man of Steel. A worry, for sure. Superman movies have underachieved. All of them. But the buzz on this one is good, and I think fans desperately want to have a good Superman movie to watch. This one could disappoint and take lots of us out of the pool, but I have faith. $270M.

3. Dispicable Me 2. My kids loved it. The previews are funny. It works for adults and kids. The minion things are great, and as JE said, after it comes out there is no true kids competition until the end of July and Smurfs 2 (and that's for the little kids). Throw in a July 4th weekend release, and this one is pretty close to a lock. $280M.

2. Star Trek - Into Darkness. Mortal lock as well as the #1...though I think these are the only two absolute sure things. I think this one does just north of $300M

1. Iron Man 3. First one out of the gate, and lots of buzz from The Avengers. Plus it's getting good reviews (and it can't be worse than Iron Man 2), and every boy between the age of 5 and 55 wants to see it, and most women will go along for the ride because Stark's character is perfect. This will top $325M.

As for my sleepers...I kind of like RIPD and After Earth, and possibly This is The End.

For my disappointers...I think Woverine won't be that good (though I hope it is), and I don't think either The Lone Ranger or the The Great Gatsby will break $150M.

My bomb of the summer award goes to The Internship. It's going to get skewered by the critics (I mean the previews are cringe worthy to say the least), and will bomb after the opening weekend.

Two guilty pleasures will be After Midnight (loved the first two in this series) and White House Down (which screams Battleship, but I'll still go see it).

[JasonEvans]

8. Monsters U. You all seem to be drinking the Pixar kool-aid and not remembering a movie called Cars 2 that came out and only did $191M. Why? Because the movie was awful, and Pixar's first true attempt at "just make a movie that has the characters from the first movie and people will watch it." I've seen the previews for Monsters U....and all of them have been brutal. All of them. Monsters Inc did well because it was a great story, and adults went, and then went again. This movie just doesn't look funny. It looks like Cars 2. I think it greatly disappoints. I could certainly be wrong here, and this is my "pick a high seed to lose early" NCAA like pick, but I'm just not buying the hype.

Here's the thing, Cars was pretty close to awful. It is generally acknowledged as the worst Pixar film not named Cars 2. And yet, Cars 2, which was even worse, did $191 million. Monsters Inc, on the other hand, was wonderful! There is a ton of built-in good will in that product. If awful Cars can spawn an awful sequel that makes $191 mil, then logic would say that even if Monsters U is awful, being spawned from a great original should help it to get to at least $220 million or so, right?

And I take exception at your statement that Cars 2 was...

Pixar's first true attempt at "just make a movie that has the characters from the first movie and people will watch it."

Ever heard of Toy Story 2 or Toy Story 3? How were those any different (other than the fact that they took the story forward in time instead of back in time) from Monsters U?

I'll give you another reason Monsters U is gonna clean up. The original was released in 2001, 12 years ago. Anyone who was between the ages of 4 and 14 saw it (not to mention all their parents) and loved it. Those folks are now 16-26 years old and they have wonderful memories of Monsters Inc. They are eager to see a sequel, I guarantee it. most Pixar films are sure-fire hits for kids 4-14 plus their parents, but this one adds a whole new demographic of young adults who loved the original. That is part of what made Toy Story 3, released a decade after Toy Story 2, a $400 mill hit (well, that and the fact that it was a truly amazing story). It crossed from the "family film" into the young adult market. I think Monsters U will do so as well.

I do agree that the first trailers look so-so, and that does concern me a bit. That is why I think it only makes in the mid-upper $200s in boxoffice.

-Jason "I really, really think I am going to regret not taking Hangover Part III... I may change my vote... but what do I leave out?!!? Argh!!" Evans

[NashvilleDevil]

-Jason "I really, really think I am going to regret not taking Hangover Part III... I may change my vote... but what do I leave out?!!? Argh!!" Evans

We can change our vote?

[brevity]

What happened to ncexnyc? I was looking forward to that Other vote for Mortal Instruments: City of Bones.

Anyway, another reason to vote for Man of Steel. Every Walmart in the US is pre-selling tickets to those who can't wait until June 14 and would rather see it Thursday, June 13 at 7pm.

I know that will help the film's overall box office, but it's not clear to me if Thursday evening figures (as opposed to midnight figures) are included as part of the opening weekend.

Also, this is a good idea for the theaters, who need a little money boost after 6 days of showing The Internship and 13 days of showing After Earth. I'm still surprised that Hollywood isn't trying to cash in on that two-week period.

[-jk]

We can change our vote?

He's a mod. A generally thankless task, but with a very few, minor privileges.

(If you don't like it, well... deal with it.)

-jk

[JasonEvans]

We can change our vote?

I think it would be perfectly fine for someone to post something saying they previous voted for Fast 6 but have changed their mind and are now voting for World War Z, so long as such a post came before the poll closed (in about a week).

Would others have a problem with that? If it got to be epidemic with a lot of people doing it, that might make tracking things difficult, but I think it is only fair to allow it.

-Jason "I am not going to change my vote though. I've given it some thought and Hangover III will finish 6th... book it!" Evans

[NashvilleDevil]

I think it would be perfectly fine for someone to post something saying they previous voted for Fast 6 but have changed their mind and are now voting for World War Z, so long as such a post came before the poll closed (in about a week).

Would others have a problem with that? If it got to be epidemic with a lot of people doing it, that might make tracking things difficult, but I think it is only fair to allow it.

-Jason "I am not going to change my vote though. I've given it some thought and Hangover III will finish 6th... book it!" Evans

Only thing I would switch is Fast 6 for Hangover III but I'm sticking with my picks.

[NashvilleDevil]

He's a mod. A generally thankless task, but with a very few, minor privileges.

(If you don't like it, well... deal with it.)

-jk

I don't want to change my picks and if Mr. MMMMMMMMMM wants to change his choice he's earned that.

[sporthenry]

Great Gatsby is my sleeper pick. I can't see Hangover 3 doing much after 2 was so bad. Similar with Fast 6. Unless either of them gets great word of mouth, I don't think anyone will be in a hurry to see them.

Not taking 2 kids movies over the summer scares me a bit but I do agree with earlier sentiments that Monsters University has a bigger pool since you'll get young adults who saw it as kids to go.

But my faith in humanity was somewhat restored with Lincoln, Django, Les Mis and even Life of Pi rounding out the Winter contest. Seems like people aren't that against those types of movies of which I'd put Great Gatsby. I don't think Gatsby will be great but it doesn't have to be. I think their marketing campaign has been fairly solid and aimed at the younger crowd. And like Monsters, the Great Gatsby is cross generational and probably one of a few novels that just about everyone had to read. And I have an inkling that the literary folks who loved it will see it just to see it even though they'll hate it and the people who just Spark Noted it will see it because that is what all of us underachievers do, wait for it to come out in movie form anyways.

[brevity]

Great Gatsby is my sleeper pick. I can't see Hangover 3 doing much after 2 was so bad. Similar with Fast 6. Unless either of them gets great word of mouth, I don't think anyone will be in a hurry to see them.

Not taking 2 kids movies over the summer scares me a bit but I do agree with earlier sentiments that Monsters University has a bigger pool since you'll get young adults who saw it as kids to go.

But my faith in humanity was somewhat restored with Lincoln, Django, Les Mis and even Life of Pi rounding out the Winter contest. Seems like people aren't that against those types of movies of which I'd put Great Gatsby. I don't think Gatsby will be great but it doesn't have to be. I think their marketing campaign has been fairly solid and aimed at the younger crowd. And like Monsters, the Great Gatsby is cross generational and probably one of a few novels that just about everyone had to read. And I have an inkling that the literary folks who loved it will see it just to see it even though they'll hate it and the people who just Spark Noted it will see it because that is what all of us underachievers do, wait for it to come out in movie form anyways.

I want you to be right, for the sake of a more cultured nation. But it's a sucker pick. (Hey, Jason wanted us to talk smack.) I am stunned that it received 6 votes here, 2 more than The Lone Ranger. I think the main trailer worked musically, but otherwise it's... a Joel Edgerton movie. He has almost every line!

Sorry, I just don't see where the money comes in. It opens during Iron Man 3's second weekend, and a week before Star Trek Into Darkness. Here's a fair comparison from 2010:

May 7-9: Iron Man 2 opens on 4,380 screens and makes $128M.
May 14-16: Iron Man 2 adds 10 screens (4,390 total) and makes $52M. Robin Hood opens on 3,503 screens and makes $36M.
May 21-23: Shrek Forever After opens on 4,359 screens and makes $89M. Iron Man 2 loses only 213 screens (4,177) and makes $33M. Robin Hood adds 2 screens (3,505) and makes $25M.

Under these circumstances, Robin Hood did really well. It grossed $72M in 14 days, made another $17M the week of Memorial Day, hit $100M in its 5th week, then petered out to $105M. Given its release date, that film could not have performed better.

I'll admit that Jack Dawson/Spider-Man/Owen Lars has more star power than Maximus/Hepburn, but The Great Gatsby isn't exactly an action/adventure. It's about extremely wealthy people who may or may not realize that all the money in the world can't rid Long Island of its humidity.

[JasonEvans]

Speaking of talking smack...

Hey BlueDevil2K and Wander, can either of you explain HOW YOU VOTED FOR THE INTERNSHIP!??!!? Please start by explaining if you even cracked a smile during the trailer, let alone laughed.

Here's an interesting question... among the movies in our poll, which will make the LEAST Boxoffice. Maybe we do a Top 3 Bombs of Summer poll for the 3 films with high expectations that do the worse. Hmmmm.

-Jason "need to think a bit about which of our nominees I would pick, but this could be fun" Evans

[NashvilleDevil]

Speaking of talking smack...

Hey BlueDevil2K and Wander, can either of you explain HOW YOU VOTED FOR THE INTERNSHIP!??!!? Please start by explaining if you even cracked a smile during the trailer, let alone laughed.

Here's an interesting question... among the movies in our poll, which will make the LEAST Boxoffice. Maybe we do a Top 3 Bombs of Summer poll for the 3 films with high expectations that do the worse. Hmmmm.

-Jason "need to think a bit about which of our nominees I would pick, but this could be fun" Evans

1. The Lone Ranger
2. The Internship
3. wolverine

[Highlander]

Jason - I'm just not convinced Man of Steel is a mortal lock for the top 5. Maybe it's because Superman is a bit too perfect of a super hero, and today people like heroes with flaws to ensure they can relate to them. That's why most of the recent superhero movies are origins (Spider-Man, Batman Begins, Iron Man, Green Lantern, X-Men First Class, etc.). How does an audience relate to someone who comes from another planet and has more superpowers than all the original X-Men combined? Compare that to Tony Stark, who is a brilliant, hard working, egocentric narccissit who just happens to be incredibly wealthy. Or to Bruce Wayne, who is similar in many respects.

Secondly, the last Superman movie was truly horrible. That's part of the reason I don't see "The Wolverine" doing incredible numbers. Maybe it has been far enough out that people have forgotten about it, but I'm a doubter. I think it will do well, but I'm much more excited to see sequels to decent franchises than a third reboot of Superman after the last one tanked.

I may be dead wrong here, and if so you can tell me "I told ya so" in a few months and we can have a good laugh at my expense.

[NashvilleDevil]

Jason - I'm just not convinced Man of Steel is a mortal lock for the top 5. Maybe it's because Superman is a bit too perfect of a super hero, and today people like heroes with flaws to ensure they can relate to them. That's why most of the recent superhero movies are origins (Spider-Man, Batman Begins, Iron Man, Green Lantern, X-Men First Class, etc.). How does an audience relate to someone who comes from another planet and has more superpowers than all the original X-Men combined? Compare that to Tony Stark, who is a brilliant, hard working, egocentric narccissit who just happens to be incredibly wealthy. Or to Bruce Wayne, who is similar in many respects.

Secondly, the last Superman movie was truly horrible. That's part of the reason I don't see "The Wolverine" doing incredible numbers. Maybe it has been far enough out that people have forgotten about it, but I'm a doubter. I think it will do well, but I'm much more excited to see sequels to decent franchises than a third reboot of Superman after the last one tanked.

I may be dead wrong here, and if so you can tell me "I told ya so" in a few months and we can have a good laugh at my expense.

No one involved in Superman Returns is involved in this one. Even though it was bad it still made a lot of money. If you don't think Man of Steel is a lock then what is going to replace it in the top 5?

[Udaman]

A few things:

1) First to JE and his comments on Monsters U. Not fair to throw Toy Story 2 and Toy Story 3 back at me. Yes, they were sequels, with the same characters. But they were also really good stories (especially Toy Story 3). Really good. And the previews don't just look mediocre. They are groan inducing (almost as bad as The Internship).

2) That said, the thing this movie has going for it is the brand name, which is huge, and the fact that Epic will have come out a month before and be all out of legs, which means this movie has 12 full days with no kid competition until Dispicable Me 2 comes out. It's going to make $100M in it's opening weekend, and then $50M the weekend after that. Those are big numbers. But I'm telling your right now that it's rotten tomatoes score will be less than 60%. Calling it.

3) The Hangover 3 will do well because (as others have said) it's the black comedy of the summer. And it has a history. And the actors are all good. The buzz is really, really good.

4) No way, no way, no way, no way will The Great Gatsby crack the top 5. It.Will.Not.Happen It's an artistic movie, not at period/historical one (like Lincoln). It's from a book that lots of people really disliked way back in 11th grade (this person included). It's been pushed back from December (never a good sign), and it's competition....brutal. It's going up against Iron Man 3, then a week later Start Trek, then a week later Before Midnight (which guys will beg to be taken too for a date night over The Great Gatsby). This shows target audience is the over 50 female crowd, and that's not a profitable segment. This movie will be lucky to break $115M (I don't think it breaks $100M), and it will do worse than at least 9 other movies this summer, if not more. If you pick The Great Gatsby, you won't go 5 for 5. I'm not saying it's as bad a pick as say not choosing The Dark Knight, but nobody was crazy enough not to do that. Right? (yep, I'm funny JE, just ask).

5) I agree with JE that the last 3 spots are a battle between Monsters U, The Hangover 3 and Dispicable Me. But Man of Steel could certainly fall out if it's bad. The early buzz, however, is really strong.

6) Love the idea of top bombs. I would say 1) The Internship - and it won't be close. 2) Great Gatsby 3) Lone Ranger

[BlueDevil2K]

Speaking of talking smack...

Hey BlueDevil2K and Wander, can either of you explain HOW YOU VOTED FOR THE INTERNSHIP!??!!? Please start by explaining if you even cracked a smile during the trailer, let alone laughed.

If I vote for the same 5 movies as everybody else, I'll go 4/5 just like everybody else :-)

My odd movie out is Star Trek - maybe I'm crazy, but I just don't hear any buzz whatsoever about it. If it hadn't been for this poll, I don't think I'd even know that it was coming out. I needed a 5th pick - this is my alternative to Hangover III in the "grown-up" category...

And yes, I laughed...but not as hard as you're laughing at me ;-)

[brevity]

I'm on record as saying that my top 5 choices are Iron Man 3, Monsters University, Man of Steel, The Lone Ranger, and Star Trek Into Darkness. Those were in order of confidence, which has been rattled since I voted and posted 18 days ago. People hate The Lone Ranger despite its awesome release date and love Star Trek Into Darkness despite its comparatively crappy release date. So I went to Box Office Mojo for more summer comparisons.

Star Trek Into Darkness opens the third weekend of May. Past films in that slot...

2012: Battleship, The Dictator, and What to Expect When You're Expecting were obliterated by the third weekend of The Avengers. Studios weren't even trying to challenge Disney. Not applicable.
2011: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides cleaned up with $90M, with Thor quickly fading in its third week. But it finished with $241M.
2010: Shrek Forever After opened with $70M, which was diminishing returns for that franchise. Finished with $238M.
2009: Angels & Demons opened with $46M, edging out Star Trek in its second weekend. Finished with $133M.
2008: The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian opened with $55M, finished with $141M.

You can understand my lack of confidence in films opening that weekend. (2007 is interesting. Spider-Man, Shrek, and Pirates all opened their third installments in May and all made over $300M. Maybe they struck the right balance. Or maybe they were the only event films released that entire month.)

The Lone Ranger (and Despicable Me 2) open Independence Day weekend, which will be a 5-day weekend (July 3-7), including night screenings from July 2. History...

2012: The Amazing Spider-Man opened alone to $137M over July 3-8, finished with $262M.
2011: Transformers 3 opened alone to $180M over June 29-July 4, finished with $352M.
2010: The Twilight Saga: Eclipse opened to $176M over June 30-July 5, finished with $300M. Also opening was The Last Airbender, which made $69M from July 1-5 and finished with $131M.
2009: Ice Age 3 opened to $66M over July 1-5 and finished with $196M. Also opening was Public Enemies, which made $40M from July 1-5 and finished with $97M. Both films struggled against the second weekend of Transformers 2.
2008: Hancock opened alone to $103M over July 1-6 and finished with $227M.

(Note that July 4 itself fell on a Sunday in 2010 and a Monday in 2011, which naturally extended the weekend for moviegoers.)

Maybe that release date is not so awesome when it is shared with another big film. I kind of wished I looked at these numbers before. Instead of choosing between two July 4 movies, I might have picked neither. Still, these films open a week after The Heat and White House Down, and two weeks after Monsters University and World War Z. The following week has Grown Ups 2 and Pacific Rim. There's money to be made.