Page 3 of 3 FirstFirst 123
Results 41 to 46 of 46
  1. #41
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by hustleplays View Post
    With respect [sincerely], have you played the game [or any sport]? I honestly don't know how you can say this if you have.
    I have played sports, and play moderately competively at pool. I know the feeling you're describing, but it's more confirmation bias than anything else. But I'm not going to convince you -- people have a hard time accepting math and logic that fly in the face of their intuition (including me) and I don't really feel like debating this again.

    But I will stand firmly behind this point: Andre is not a "streaky" shooter. If he is open, he has a ~42%* chance of making it, no matter what has happened immediately preceding that.


    * last year. Who knows if he's improved or not -- I suspect he has.

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I'm not sure that Victor Rudd averaged 10 and 8; the stats I found for him said he averaged 12.3 ppg and 6.9 rpg. But also he did that in 34.1 mpg. If you extrapolate Amile's points and rebounds to that many minutes, his averages come out to 10.7 ppg and 7.8 rpg. Cory Jefferson's extrapolated numbers (again using 34.1 just to normalize) come out to 16.3 ppg and 9.8 rpg, so at least those are clearly better than Amile's. I'm not sure they're better enough to justify bringing in another body, but maybe they are. Cory Jefferson is listed at 15 pounds heavier than Amile and Victor Rudd is listed at 34 pounds heavier, but of course we don't know how much good weight Amile will gain in the off-season.

    Since per minute averages aren't really all that illuminating, Amile's oRating was 117.0, significantly better than either Victor Rudd (95.2) or Corey Jefferson (100.5). His offensive rebound percentage (12.7%) was also better than either Rudd (4.8%) or C Jefferson (11.0%), although both Rudd (19.7%) and C Jefferson (20.3%) had much better defensive rebounding percentages than Amile (13.8%). Overall, I'm not sure the numbers suggest either of these guys are obvious upgrades over Amile, although as you point out both played big minutes in big conferences. I didn't run numbers for any of the other guys on your list, but it would surprise me if any of them were significantly better than C Jefferson or Rudd.
    A few thoughts here:

    1. Jefferson's ORtg was collected playing at SF and PF. It very much remains to be seen whether he could accomplish that ORtg at C, where his advantage in height/length is eliminated.
    2. I'm not sure that ORtg is all that informative with regard to what this team will need most out of the C position (defense, defensive rebounding). In that regard, I don't think that any of our options have shown much.
    3. Even if Jefferson proves able to play well at C next year, that still leaves presumably 15-20 mpg (or more, if Jefferson also backs up the PF spot) at the C spot. So I don't see why we STILL wouldn't be interested in a big man. Hairston and Marshall have not yet shown that they are ready for that job at C.
    4. For whatever reason, I managed to omit the best player on the 5th-year big man list (Kadeem Batts). At 6'10", 245 and averaging 14.8 and 7.2, he would be unequivocally an upgrade over our 3 options at C for next year if he decided to graduate and play for Duke.

    Quote Originally Posted by sporthenry View Post
    Glad someone brought this up. Imagine throwing Marshall on a team like Virginia Tech. He'd probably average something close to 10/8 just by being 7 foot on that team. It really is hard to try and compare who would have done what b/c quite frankly, nobody on that list would have played that much this year for Duke. They might be able to pick someone up and I wouldn't mind it but I don't think it is as dire as others make it out nor are there a ton of instant impact guys. Maybe Jefferson but beyond that, I'm pretty confident Marshall could shoot better than 39% which is what Rudd shot.
    Highly doubtful. Marshall struggled to score (shooting just 12.5%) while playing mostly against walkons last year. I see absolutely no reason to assume he'd have put up numbers similar to what junior-year Mason did against real ACC competition.

    Look, I'm hopeful that Marshall makes a big jump next year. But nothing he's done to this point suggests that he's ready to compete at the ACC level. Maybe that would change. But I don't see any harm in taking a look to see if we can add a guy to solidify what is almost certainly going to be our biggest question mark. Could we do great things even without a legitimate big man next year? Absolutely. Is there any reason to ignore possible upgrades when we know how good we should be at the PG through PF spots? Not in my opinion.

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    A few thoughts here:

    1. Jefferson's ORtg was collected playing at SF and PF. It very much remains to be seen whether he could accomplish that ORtg at C, where his advantage in height/length is eliminated.
    2. I'm not sure that ORtg is all that informative with regard to what this team will need most out of the C position (defense, defensive rebounding). In that regard, I don't think that any of our options have shown much.
    3. Even if Jefferson proves able to play well at C next year, that still leaves presumably 15-20 mpg (or more, if Jefferson also backs up the PF spot) at the C spot. So I don't see why we STILL wouldn't be interested in a big man. Hairston and Marshall have not yet shown that they are ready for that job at C.
    4. For whatever reason, I managed to omit the best player on the 5th-year big man list (Kadeem Batts). At 6'10", 245 and averaging 14.8 and 7.2, he would be unequivocally an upgrade over our 3 options at C for next year if he decided to graduate and play for Duke.



    Highly doubtful. Marshall struggled to score (shooting just 12.5%) while playing mostly against walkons last year. I see absolutely no reason to assume he'd have put up numbers similar to what junior-year Mason did against real ACC competition.

    Look, I'm hopeful that Marshall makes a big jump next year. But nothing he's done to this point suggests that he's ready to compete at the ACC level. Maybe that would change. But I don't see any harm in taking a look to see if we can add a guy to solidify what is almost certainly going to be our biggest question mark. Could we do great things even without a legitimate big man next year? Absolutely. Is there any reason to ignore possible upgrades when we know how good we should be at the PG through PF spots? Not in my opinion.
    He took 8 whole shots this year. I'm not going to write him off b/c he was forcing up shots trying to get some stats. Think about this for a few seconds, Batts averaged more shots than Plumlee got for the whole season. If you gave Plumlee 25-30 minutes a game and 10 shots, even just shooting 40%, he'd average 8 points before FTs and a 7 footer will get rebounds just standing around.

    I think people grossly overestimate how much opportunity plays into all of this. Olek Czyz went from 2.5 points in 10.2 minutes/game (in 6 games) to 12.3 and 5.7 at 29 minutes/game. Sure, it might have been in the MWC, but I don't think the level of play is that much different. I guess a better comparison would be Boateng or Boykin. Neither guy could crack Duke's rotation but both would qualify under your quality big men. Boykin went to Cal and in his first year there averaged 7.8/3.8 and over the next 2 years he went for 9.6/6.4 and 11.9/6.7. Boateng went to ASU and his first year only averaged 3.9/2.6 but it was over 10 minutes so double that and voila, you get your numbers. By his senior year, Boateng was averaging 8.8/7.2 in 27 minutes.

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    A few thoughts here:

    1. Jefferson's ORtg was collected playing at SF and PF. It very much remains to be seen whether he could accomplish that ORtg at C, where his advantage in height/length is eliminated.
    2. I'm not sure that ORtg is all that informative with regard to what this team will need most out of the C position (defense, defensive rebounding). In that regard, I don't think that any of our options have shown much.
    Well, you emphasized both scoring and rebounding in your original post, so you must think scoring matter at least a little. In that regard, oRtg seems to be relevant. Your point about Amile accomplishing his oRtg at SF and PF is a good one, although since on offense he pretty much always played inside I think he'd still probably at least manage an oRtg over 100, which would compare favorably with the other two guys.

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    3. Even if Jefferson proves able to play well at C next year, that still leaves presumably 15-20 mpg (or more, if Jefferson also backs up the PF spot) at the C spot. So I don't see why we STILL wouldn't be interested in a big man. Hairston and Marshall have not yet shown that they are ready for that job at C.
    Josh Hairston may not yet have appeared ready to us to be the backup center, but Coach K seemed to think he was ready this season. In the 11 games after January 1 in which Ryan Kelly played, Josh averaged 11.3 mpg (in the games Ryan didn't play, Josh averaged 16.2 mpg). And next year he'll be a senior. I have to believe at least 10 minutes are his for the taking unless he practices his way out of them.

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by sporthenry View Post
    He took 8 whole shots this year. I'm not going to write him off b/c he was forcing up shots trying to get some stats. Think about this for a few seconds, Batts averaged more shots than Plumlee got for the whole season. If you gave Plumlee 25-30 minutes a game and 10 shots, even just shooting 40%, he'd average 8 points before FTs and a 7 footer will get rebounds just standing around.

    I think people grossly overestimate how much opportunity plays into all of this. Olek Czyz went from 2.5 points in 10.2 minutes/game (in 6 games) to 12.3 and 5.7 at 29 minutes/game. Sure, it might have been in the MWC, but I don't think the level of play is that much different. I guess a better comparison would be Boateng or Boykin. Neither guy could crack Duke's rotation but both would qualify under your quality big men. Boykin went to Cal and in his first year there averaged 7.8/3.8 and over the next 2 years he went for 9.6/6.4 and 11.9/6.7. Boateng went to ASU and his first year only averaged 3.9/2.6 but it was over 10 minutes so double that and voila, you get your numbers. By his senior year, Boateng was averaging 8.8/7.2 in 27 minutes.
    I think you are overestimating the importance of opportunity. Yes, it is true that opportunity can provide for improved output. But in order for that opportunity to result in improved output, you have to be up to the challenge of making good on that opportunity. Marshall showed in his time on the floor that he was not ready to make good even with more minutes.

    As for your examples:
    Czyz: the dropoff from the ACC to the MWC was huge. Also, he went from trying to play SF to playing his natural position of PF, which had a huge impact on his production
    Boykin: Boykin was slightly more productive as a true freshman than Marshall was as a redshirt freshman. Boykin was much more productive in his few appearances as a true sophomore than Marshall was as a redshirt freshman. And even then, as a redshirt sophomore he only averaged 7.8 ppg and 3.8 rpg despite playing in an inferior conference. That should tell you something about what to expect from Marshall.
    Boateng: Boateng was roughly as productive as true freshman as Marshall was as a redshirt freshman. But as a redshirt sophomore and redshirt junior, Boateng was not good enough to warrant significant minutes on an Arizona State team that desperately needed size (they literally had one other guy taller than 6'6"). That, too, should tell you about what to expect from Marshall.

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Well, you emphasized both scoring and rebounding in your original post, so you must think scoring matter at least a little. In that regard, oRtg seems to be relevant. Your point about Amile accomplishing his oRtg at SF and PF is a good one, although since on offense he pretty much always played inside I think he'd still probably at least manage an oRtg over 100, which would compare favorably with the other two guys.
    I posted ppg and rpg only because that was the information provided by blueequalslife23 in his TDD post (and I was too lazy to do any further work on the subject). I think defense and defensive rebounding are the most critical attributes for our big man. Scoring would be nice, but I think we'll have plenty of offense from the 1-4 spots. So I want a capable defender on the blocks. And I'm not sure that any of our 3 guys have shown that skill set yet.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Josh Hairston may not yet have appeared ready to us to be the backup center, but Coach K seemed to think he was ready this season. In the 11 games after January 1 in which Ryan Kelly played, Josh averaged 11.3 mpg (in the games Ryan didn't play, Josh averaged 16.2 mpg). And next year he'll be a senior. I have to believe at least 10 minutes are his for the taking unless he practices his way out of them.
    Hairston played because we had to play somebody. We weren't going to play Murphy or Jefferson at C, and Marshall and Zafirovski weren't up to the challenge (even though Coach K gave Marshall a shot).

    And note that the VAST majority of those 16.2 mpg for Hairston while Kelly was out came at PF. Mason sat all of 64 minutes during the 14 games that Kelly missed. Of those 64 minutes, 35 were taken by Marshall. That means that Hairston played only 29 minutes (~2 mpg) at center while Kelly was out.

    So, no, I don't think that Coach K was all that comfortable with playing Hairston at C this year.
    Last edited by CDu; 04-09-2013 at 12:14 PM.

Similar Threads

  1. Andre Dawkins's Defense vs. UNC - Play by Play
    By tommy in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 03-08-2012, 10:14 AM
  2. The Playcaller's Play-by-Play
    By Lulu in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 14
    Last Post: 01-19-2009, 01:53 PM
  3. Play-by-play voice?
    By Lavabe in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 40
    Last Post: 11-25-2008, 03:39 PM
  4. Play-by-play (or lack of)
    By homebre in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 11-21-2007, 10:20 AM
  5. Worst play-by-play announcer in baseball
    By Jim3k in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 06-19-2007, 09:18 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •