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  1. #661

    Cano

    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Cano is beyond on crack. He's past crack. He's a 2B! I rarely agree with Cowherd, but he loves to talk about demographics and he's been stressing this all week. Not even the NYY, with their reputation for profligacy, are gonna agree to this silliness. Cano is roughly the same age Pujols was when the Angels gave him that insane ten-year contract. Cano turns 32 in like a month.
    throaty, your Cards caught a lot of heat (at first) for letting Pujols -- "The Face of the Franchise" -- walk. But we now see that it was a clearly the right decision.

    I'm just hoping my Yankees show the same sense. I'm not happy with the new austerity regime, but in this instance, I hope they will hold the line at a reasonable deal. What's reasonable? That's the debate -- I'd be comfortable with 5-6 years at around $20 million a year. He IS the best second-baseman in baseball (and the best player on the Yankees at this time).

  2. #662
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Steamboat Springs, CO

    AL Wild Card Chase Down to the Wire

    Tampa Bay, whom I had thought had already clinched a spot, has posted two losses in a row, and its wild card chances have shrunken.

    The Clevelands are in the lead by one game. Tampa Bay and Texas are tied for the second spot, one game behind. Lots of possibilities exist -- here's my assessment. Just for fun, I assumed that each game tomorrow was 50-50.*

    There are eight possible outcomes tomorrow in the alst game of the regular season.

    CLE is in the driver's seat and makes the playoffs in 7 of the 8 cases.

    In the eighth, a CLE loss and wins by TEX and TB produce a three-way playoff, of which two teams will win wild cards and the right to play one game against each other. I have no idea what algorithm MLB has taken to resolve a three-way tie; and consider, the two who win just get to play each other in a one-game series.

    Three of the remaining 7 cases end up in a two-way, one-game playoff, which occurs if TEX and TB both win and CLE wins. Or, if TEX and TB both lose, and CLE either wins or loses.

    In the other four cases, TEX and TB have different results tomorrow, and the winner advances.

    Assuming the wild-card playoff gives each team an equal probability, here are the probabilities that each team wins a wild-card spot:

    CLE = 0.958, losing only when it's the odd-man-out in a three-way playoff for two spots.

    TEX, TB = 0.521

    The probabilities add to 2.000 because -- duh -- two teams will make the wild card.

    sagegrouse
    * CLE has won 9 in a row; TEX has won 6; TB, while losing the last two, has gone 7-3.

  3. #663
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Deslok View Post
    The general speculation seems to be that both Ellsbury and Napoli will be gone. I think Ellsbury will just command too much money on the open market for the Red Sox to bring him back, especially with Bradley coming up, Carp and Nava looking good this year, and some other prospects still down on the farm mostly. I also don't foresee him giving any type of hometown discount, which I think Pedroia did to renew long term(I think he could have gotten near $150 instead of the $110 he got). Napoli will certainly get a qualifying offer from the Sox - 1 year at 14 million or so, but I suspect they'll be vary wary of doing any length to the deal, for the same reason his original 3 year deal became a 1 year deal with incentives. Perhaps the most interesting question for the Sox is Saltalamacchia, who the Sox have worked with as he's developed into a pretty good catcher. He struggled at the start of his time in Boston, but has done well in all areas this year. When he first signed, the Sox had really no MLB ready options anywhere, and now that they have a good catcher, they've got a plethora of quality catching prospects in their system. So much so that if they resign Salty, they've got to look to trade one or more of the ones ready to play in the league. There are some interesting decisions ahead for the Sox, but it feels way better this year having a strong club backed by a strong farm(and knowing the Yankees currently have neither doesn't hurt at all).
    Crap on a cracker I totally forgot about Salty being in a walk year as well. I think you're right that Ellsbury may be gone. I would hate to see him go as he's a big part of this team but then again, he's had some injury concerns (much like Napoli now) and it could be problematic if it's a rich deal and then he has a string of injuries to keep him out of the lineup for extended periods of time.

    From what I have read though I didn't think they had any catching prospects ready to go. I know they brought in Ross this year and they've used Lavarnway in spots as well. It is an interesting situation. I think Napoli may stay though. He's said he likes the team. As far as Bradley, he hit big at the start of the season and that's why he was on the OD roster, but then cooled off considerably. I hope he's ready to go full time if Ellsbury is gone.
    Duke '96
    Cary, NC

  4. #664
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    throaty, your Cards caught a lot of heat (at first) for letting Pujols -- "The Face of the Franchise" -- walk. But we now see that it was a clearly the right decision.

    I'm just hoping my Yankees show the same sense. I'm not happy with the new austerity regime, but in this instance, I hope they will hold the line at a reasonable deal. What's reasonable? That's the debate -- I'd be comfortable with 5-6 years at around $20 million a year. He IS the best second-baseman in baseball (and the best player on the Yankees at this time).
    I think if the Yankees go a bit north of what the Mets offerred Wright which is about what you're talking about, it's a more than fair offer. It's going to take the Dodgers and probably one more team to get into a bidding war and make it insane in an oversigning
    Duke '96
    Cary, NC

  5. #665

    last day

    One really significant issue to be decided Sunday, the last day of the regular season.

    The AL wild card is up for grabs. Cleveland has a one-game lead on Tampa Bay and Texas, which are tied for the second spot.

    Almost anything could happen with today's games -- Cleveland is guaranteed no worse than a spot in a three-way playoff for the two wild card spots. A win and they host the wild card.

    There is still the issue of the best record in the NL ... St. Louis can clinch with a win, but a Cards loss and a Braves win gives it to the Braves. Heartbreaking loss Saturday night BTW .. Rollins made an incredible play to end the game and prevent an amazing Atlanta rally in the 9th.

    Everything else is set. I think the Pittsburgh at Cincinnati game is interesting, since it's meaningless, but the same two teams will play the NL Wild Card Tuesday in Pittsburgh. I'll also be watching to see if Mariano Rivera gets to play centerfield in Houston.

  6. #666
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Tampa Bay, up 6-0, Appears Serious Today

    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Tampa Bay, whom I had thought had already clinched a spot, has posted two losses in a row, and its wild card chances have shrunken.

    The Clevelands are in the lead by one game. Tampa Bay and Texas are tied for the second spot, one game behind. Lots of possibilities exist -- here's my assessment. Just for fun, I assumed that each game tomorrow was 50-50.*

    There are eight possible outcomes tomorrow in the alst game of the regular season.

    CLE is in the driver's seat and makes the playoffs in 7 of the 8 cases.

    In the eighth, a CLE loss and wins by TEX and TB produce a three-way playoff, of which two teams will win wild cards and the right to play one game against each other. I have no idea what algorithm MLB has taken to resolve a three-way tie; and consider, the two who win just get to play each other in a one-game series.

    Three of the remaining 7 cases end up in a two-way, one-game playoff, which occurs if TEX and TB both win and CLE wins. Or, if TEX and TB both lose, and CLE either wins or loses.

    In the other four cases, TEX and TB have different results tomorrow, and the winner advances.
    The Rays scored six runs in the top of the first.

    sage

  7. #667
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    I moved. Now 12 miles from Heaven, 13 from Hell

    No-Hitter

    And on the last day of the season for the miserable Marlins, Henderson Alvarez goes into the record books with a no-hitter, while standing in the on-deck circle.

    Official no-hitters must be complete games of at least nine innings. After 8 1/2, Alvarez had the nine no-hit innings, but the Marlins hadn't scored. In the bottom of the ninth, two hits, a wild pitch and a walk load the bases. With two outs, the Tigers' pitcher uncorks another wild pitch, and Stanton scores. (Alvarez was due up next, although he was absolutely not going to hit. Either the game is over, or the inning is.) The Marlins fifth, while the Mets have one (and I think the Padres are still waiting.)

  8. #668
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Bonus baseball. We get a game #163 tomorrow to determine the 2nd wild card from the AL.

    -Jason "Bud Selig is smiling right now" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  9. #669

    bonus baseball

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Bonus baseball. We get a game #163 tomorrow to determine the 2nd wild card from the AL.

    -Jason "Bud Selig is smiling right now" Evans
    I'm smiling too -- Tampa Bay at Texas Monday with the winner getting to play at Cleveland. Fun fun fun!

  10. #670
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    throaty, your Cards caught a lot of heat (at first) for letting Pujols -- "The Face of the Franchise" -- walk. But we now see that it was a clearly the right decision.
    Big ups to Pettitte for the way he went out, and for Alvarez in Miami. MLB network guys said that made it so Pettitte has the longest streak of non-losing seasons ever, and tied Ford for the most NYY starts ever.

    OF, Not only was letting Pujols go the right decision--we all know this in hindsight--but even at the time, I think most of the criticism was national. Around here, people blamed him, not the club, for about a month. Among the less rational, and they are a minority of the fans, I think there are some hard feelings towards Albert, but nothing like a Cleveland/James situation, with burning jerseys and that crap. I see a little mess on Facebook from time to time. People like the fact that the Angels suck this year. But Albert...

    ...Hell, you still see people at games wearing Pujols jerseys. I was at the park today. I saw #5 jerseys. Last regular season game of the year. People are wearing the jerseys of four guys no longer with the club. Musial, Gibson, McGee...and Pujols who skipped town less than 24 months ago. #5 will be retired here--it's just a matter of time. I don't see Dizzy Dean jerseys. I don't see McGwire jerseys. I see Pujols jerseys.

    The thing that struck me the most was Winter Warm-Up 2012, which took place maybe six weeks after Albert signed with the Angels. (That's another thing--everyone here was worried about the Marlins stealing him, not the Angels). Mozeliak comes out and gives a speech about why they let Albert go, about the finances of the club, who else needed to be re-signed, what they were trying to do in the free agent market (Beltran, it turned out)...and the crowd gave him an ovation. He gave a speech about why they let the best position player here since Musial leave town, and they clapped for him. Six weeks after Albert left.

    And still, I'm not even sure how clever they were. They still offered him something close to the Angels' offer. I forget exactly what it was, but it still would have sunk the club if he took it. Maybe they knew he wouldn't take it. I want to say it was "only" about $34M less.

    I don't fault Albert at all. When these guys say "it isn't about the money," I believe them. It's about the money as a proxy for respect. Pujols was the highest-paid player on the team two out of the eleven years he was here. That's nuts, even if you adjust for the rookie contract. The day Saint Louis lost Pujols was the day Matt Holliday signed for about seven and $120M, before the 2009 season I think. I'd have to look at Wiki to verify that, but I'm too lazy.

    They turned around and gave the money Pujols was making (approx $15/yr) to Yadier Molina, who stepped in as the "face of the franchise." In 2012, the team lost everyone they got from the Rasmus trade except Rzep, Carpenter, TLR, and (most of all) pitching coach Dave Duncan and they still won 88 games, making the playoffs by virtue of the Seligcard, and finishing a game away from the WS. This year, the team lost three-quarters of the starting rotation during the year, Furcal, the closer, some other people I've forgotten, Molina and Craig for stretches and won 97 games. Matt Carpenter had the best offensive season ever for any Cardinals 2B not named Hornsby or Schoendienst. I bet most people outside this market don't even know his name. Wacha? Lyons? I'd be amazed if anyone who doesn't watch MLB network 12 hours a day knows those guys' names. Shelby Miller maybe?

    I went to a game on Wednesday in which all five pitchers were rookies. All five. Design is present, but surely there's some luck going on here. Let's take one position. Salas starts messing up right before the postseason in 2011, so they promote Motte to closer. Motte's good until he gets injured before this season, so he takes the year off and starts making friends with 9yo kids who are dying of cancer. (I should link the article). Last year, innings 6-7-8-9 went Rosenthal, Mujica, Boggs, Motte, unless they wanted Rzep in a loogy role. So they promote Boggs to closer this year. That's a disaster, and he ends up in AAA Memphis, and then traded, so they promote Mujica. Mujica is great, one blown save out of thirty-some opportunities...until he's not, this month. Mujica is a mess lately. So then they give it to Rosenthal, who throws like a prettier Rob Dibble. No matter what the problem is, there's always someone stepping up out of this farm. I think some has to be design, but some has to be luck.

    Adams is mashing for the team at 1B. The Cardinals didn't need to replace 2005 Pujols. They needed to replace 2012-2013 Pujols. Not too big a job.

    I love Albert. I still use him as a subject in sentences in the Grammar class. I want his foot to get better. I do think he's two years older than he says he is. I do think he's been clean. I wish him no particular ill will. But I am so so so so glad they let him go. He won two rings here, and he owes these fans nothing. And that was already the feeling here in about May 2012, much less now.

    Other shout-outs--good for the Indians. I hated them (as an ancestral Braves fan) in the 1990s, probably because Belle was always running his mouth. But now I like rust-belt gritty fighters in small and mid-markets, and good for them, and Pittsburgh. If my teams falter, I'd like to see the TV executives choke to death on a Cleveland-Pittsburgh WS.

    As a hybrid Braves/Cardinals fan, I feel like crap anytime their interests are in conflict. I wish one were in the other league. Wait, no I don't, that's not even real baseball, with that dirty nasty DH abomination. I think what it comes down to is my son. I remember the three pitchers I don't even need to name, and Terry Pendleton, and Fred McGriff, and Bob Horner, and Gerald Perry, and Ken Oberkfell, and Ozzie Vigil, and Dale Murphy.

    My son knows none of that and wouldn't care if I explained it. But he picked out a Yadier Molina Lego man tonight in Union Station. Lego Yadi! He knows Yadi. My boy knows Yadi! I'll be happy if I can buy a Braves 2013 WS shirt for me. But I have a 1995 Braves WS shirt for me. I'll be happier if I can buy a Cardinals 2013 WS shirt for my 3.75yo son. We have shirts for him of Duke 2010 and StL 2011. I'm framing them, and he will have them after I die. I maintain my ties to the South. He has none past grandparents who probably will leave him by high school or so, if not earlier. He's from here. He was born at Barnes Jewish, in the City, not out in the suburban asteroid belt, in the City. He's my only child, and Shalay is 38 now, so he will continue to be so. He will inherit this house. In the City. This house is five stops on the metro from Busch Stadium.

    So, y'know, I'm rooting for the Braves. But not when I'm physically at NLDS game 2 with my son this Friday. Cardinals will probably lose to Pittsbugh...

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  11. #671
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
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    Gates House (House H for you old timers)

    51-111

    16 days ago, on the morning of September 14, the Houston Astros were in dire straits. One more win, and they would fail to lose the most contests for any team in a season since 2004. Two more wins, and they would fail to lose 110 games. If they wanted to be remembered long past this season, in both the record books and people's minds, and not to fade into obscurity, then something clearly had to be done. And something was.

    They finished with the longest losing streak since Cleveland (no not that Cleveland. This Cleveland). In 1899. By falling on their faces so spectacularly, they have gained the fame and remembrance they were in danger of letting slip away.

    So I would like to extend my congratulations to that team that finished 11 games behind Miami. And my thanks as well, for whenever I find myself down in the dumps, I can always think of the 2013 Houston Astros and think to myself, "Things could be much much worse."

    To all those responsible for this notable endeavor, I salute you.

  12. #672
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by AncientPsychicT View Post
    16 days ago, on the morning of September 14, the Houston Astros were in dire straits. One more win, and they would fail to lose the most contests for any team in a season since 2004. Two more wins, and they would fail to lose 110 games. If they wanted to be remembered long past this season, in both the record books and people's minds, and not to fade into obscurity, then something clearly had to be done. And something was.

    They finished with the longest losing streak since Cleveland (no not that Cleveland. This Cleveland). In 1899. By falling on their faces so spectacularly, they have gained the fame and remembrance they were in danger of letting slip away.

    So I would like to extend my congratulations to that team that finished 11 games behind Miami. And my thanks as well, for whenever I find myself down in the dumps, I can always think of the 2013 Houston Astros and think to myself, "Things could be much much worse."

    To all those responsible for this notable endeavor, I salute you.
    We certainly miss them in the NL Central. Please come back.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  13. #673
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    About 150 feet in front of the Duke Chapel doors.
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    ...Matt Carpenter had the best offensive season ever for any Cardinals 2B not named Hornsby or Schoendienst. I bet most people outside this market don't even know his name. Wacha? Lyons? I'd be amazed if anyone who doesn't watch MLB network 12 hours a day knows those guys' names. Shelby Miller maybe?...
    Just FYI, as a Nats fan, I watched Wacha and Miller dominate our previously hot lineup last week. The Cardinals have what seems like an inexhaustable pipeline of pitchers. I'm not as sold on Lyons yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if he turns out to be another gold nugget. And Carpenter? If I could draft a team of players from across the major leagues, he might just be my second baseman. (Yes, Oly, ahead of Cano.) He's young, good on defense, great on offense, and just seems to do everything right. This kid really knows baseball.

    I could easily be a Cardinals fan. Great organization that embraces the local community, does things with class, and grows great players.
    JBDuke

    Andre Dawkins: “People ask me if I can still shoot, and I ask them if they can still breathe. That’s kind of the same thing.”

  14. #674
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by AncientPsychicT View Post
    To all those responsible for this notable endeavor, I salute you.
    Lately, the most interesting thing about the hapless Astros has been what has been going on in the stands. Anyone hear about this delightful lady who grabbed a ball away from a little girl who it was being tossed to? Best part is her giving a high five to her friends as the dejected child walks away. Shameful!



    But my favorite is this story about a recent Astros baseball game that was watched by... wait for it... ZERO people on TV. Ok, I bet it was actually watched by someone, somewhere. But, it registered a 0.0 on the Nielsen meter, which means no one being tracked by Nielsen bothered to tune in. Sad...

    -Jason "you get what you pay for and, with a ridiculously low $21 mil payroll, Houston didn't pay for a MLB team this season" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  15. #675
    Dev11's Avatar
    Dev11 is offline Commissioner of Statistics, DBR Podcast
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Lately, the most interesting thing about the hapless Astros has been what has been going on in the stands. Anyone hear about this delightful lady who grabbed a ball away from a little girl who it was being tossed to? Best part is her giving a high five to her friends as the dejected child walks away. Shameful!



    But my favorite is this story about a recent Astros baseball game that was watched by... wait for it... ZERO people on TV. Ok, I bet it was actually watched by someone, somewhere. But, it registered a 0.0 on the Nielsen meter, which means no one being tracked by Nielsen bothered to tune in. Sad...

    -Jason "you get what you pay for and, with a ridiculously low $21 mil payroll, Houston didn't pay for a MLB team this season" Evans
    I was in Houston this weekend and got to see the farewells for Mariano and Pettitte, and despite the lack of quality on the field, I'd definitely recommend Minute Maid Park as a good place to watch a game, despite it having a roof. There were a lot of Yankees fans there this weekend, rightfully so, but a good number of Astros fans turned up, too.

    I can see what they were doing this year, and it's not like the guys on the field weren't trying. They seem to have good people in charge, so hopefully the plan works out for them.

  16. #676
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Lately, the most interesting thing about the hapless Astros has been what has been going on in the stands. Anyone hear about this delightful lady who grabbed a ball away from a little girl who it was being tossed to? Best part is her giving a high five to her friends as the dejected child walks away. Shameful!
    For the record, that may have gone viral "lately", but it's from more than a year ago.
    Demented and sad, but social, right?

  17. #677
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    If my teams falter, I'd like to see the TV executives choke to death on a Cleveland-Pittsburgh WS.
    You and me both! Or at least no Dodgers or Red Sox. Nothing against those teams per se but more of an issue with the way the media handles them. I had enough of Puig after about a week of him being the only thing mentioned on Sportscenter and as a Duke fan Carolina-Duke basketball is the greatest rivalry in sports, not Yankees-Red Sox.

  18. #678
    Join Date
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Blue in the Face View Post
    For the record, that may have gone viral "lately", but it's from more than a year ago.
    Ahhh, that explains why there were so many people in the stands. If it had been a recent Astros game, there would have been no more than 7 people visible in the entire section.

    -Jason "thanks for the correction, I did not know the date of the incident" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  19. #679

    economics

    Yet as bad as the Astros were, didn't we read about a month ago that they will be the most profitable team in MLB?

  20. #680
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Yet as bad as the Astros were, didn't we read about a month ago that they will be the most profitable team in MLB?
    We read that in Forbes, who also recently informed us that the ACC was doomed. Make of that what you will.

    A key part of the Astros profitability argument was the money the team was supposedly receiving in rights fees from CSN Houston, who is now bankrupt.

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