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  1. #1
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    Duke Accepts less than 10% for Class of 2017

    Was on campus today and saw this in the Chronicle:

    http://www.dukechronicle.com/article...nts-class-2017

    Record number of applicants, and a record low % accepted. Substantial change in the numbers over the last several years.
    Congrats to those who have been accepted and will attend, and best wishes to others who will go elsewhere.

  2. #2
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    Part of the low rate is the admission of about 105 more Early Decision kids than normal, leaving fewer spots for Regular Decision. Still, some very impressive numbers being put up, as that's only a fraction of the class.

    I'm getting to know some of these kids on the Facebook groups for the incoming class. Seems like another great bunch of Dukies!

  3. #3
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    One of the (admittedly few) downsides is that for those of us who do alumni interviews, it becomes even less likely that any of the students we talk to in a given year will be accepted. It sort of eats at me to be sitting across from a 17 or 18 year old kid and talking for an hour, knowing in the back of my mind that there's very little chance they'll be accepted.


    Although what really bugs me is that I believe they now cut 1/3 of applicants early-on, before it was previously done and before the standard "twice-read" process takes place (which makes total sense given the huge increase in apps), but yet haven't figured out a way to incorporate that into the interview process. So 1 out of every 3 kids I talk to was probably already been cut by the time we sit down together, but I have no idea. Now maybe that number isn't quite as bad due to selection bias in the interview pool, but you get the idea.

  4. #4
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    It is great to know that if I had applied (at my "mature" age), I would have been in the majority of applicants.

  5. #5

    Historical stats?

    I have tried but failed to find comprehensive historical numbers on applications - e.g., can we see the numbers for each year in the 80s, such as pre-NYT Mag "Hot Colleges", post NYT, post Johnny Dawkins and the 37-3 team, etc. There are about 32k that applied this year in all. I wonder how much more selective it is now than when I got in for college class of '89. I'm able to find data for some years, but nothing that really tracks it over all years. It would not surprise me if Duke had only 10-15 thousand applications back when I applied.

    I know what you mean about interviews. I've seen many great kids not get in, and a few truly amazing kids not get in, or get waitlisted, too. Of the few that were offered admission, some leave me scratching my head. But we have to remember that we don't see transcripts, we don't see grades, we don't see test scores, we don't see teacher recommendations, we don't read their essays, and we may only get a glimpse into their extracurriculars, We only have the intervew and what comes out of that. We also don't know what they need in terms of class diversity (diversity along many lines - including academic interest). So it's terribly easy to question the committee's decisions based on limited information. But, I remind myself, it's a mistake.

    I did have to step down this year from the AAAC since my daughter applied. She got in! Very excited for her. I think Duke is an even better place for her today than it was in my day, and I hated leaving after 4 short years.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by cspan37421 View Post
    I did have to step down this year from the AAAC since my daughter applied. She got in! Very excited for her. I think Duke is an even better place for her today than it was in my day, and I hated leaving after 4 short years.
    Congratulations, Cspan37421, on your daughter's acceptance! She will have a wonderful experience at Duke.

    Do you think that playing CSPAN 24 hours a day contributed to her education?

    sagegrouse

  7. #7
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    The City of Brotherly Love except when it's cold.
    Quote Originally Posted by Native View Post
    Part of the low rate is the admission of about 105 more Early Decision kids than normal, leaving fewer spots for Regular Decision. Still, some very impressive numbers being put up, as that's only a fraction of the class.

    I'm getting to know some of these kids on the Facebook groups for the incoming class. Seems like another great bunch of Dukies!
    ED is a bit of a racket in the competitive admissions game because it improves the institutions reported yield, the percent of students offered admission that matriculate. Duke's ED application pool is way up too, so its sensible that ED admits are up. One can infer from the chart that Duke's yield has improved substantially, but I'd like to see the data with and without the ED pool.

    Harvard and Princeton reinstated non binding early admissions in 2011 after abandoning it in 2006.

    I've linked a couple of articles for those who are interested in delving into more detail.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/...cket/302280/3/

    http://www.dukechronicle.com/article...d-applications

  8. #8
    My year (applying in fall of 1997 for fall of 1998 matriculation), I think the admit rate was around 30%.

    I can empathize with the alumni interviewers in this thread. I interview for campus recruiting for a Dow component firm at a couple of top MBA programs (including Duke). The numbers that will get an internship can be very low, and you're talking to dozens and dozens of very impressive people.

    One thing I can say, is that college admissions, like many other things in life, are a complete crap-shoot. I think if you want to go to a top school (like Duke), you're better off casting a wide net of several similar programs (ie. Duke, Stanford, maybe Cornell, a couple Ivies, etc.). You could be the perfect candidate, but get denied at one school, yet accepted at a school considered tougher to get into.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reisen View Post

    One thing I can say, is that college admissions, like many other things in life, are a complete crap-shoot. I think if you want to go to a top school (like Duke), you're better off casting a wide net of several similar programs (ie. Duke, Stanford, maybe Cornell, a couple Ivies, etc.). You could be the perfect candidate, but get denied at one school, yet accepted at a school considered tougher to get into.
    I agree about the crap shoot. I am pleased and grateful to have gone to Duke but recognize that for the bulk of the class, entry was in no way assured and if they were to reapply, many would have not gotten in (but might well have gotten in to a similar top tier school). I'd also add that MOST of the kids who are matriculating to the schools that are probably even harder than Duke to get into (Stanford, some Ivies, MIT) did not get in to Duke (though many didn't apply). As for the comment about "Cornell, a couple of Ivies..." I'd add that Cornell's applicant pool topped 40,000 this year (and they count as an Ivy).

  10. #10
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    Philadelphia area, PA
    I.am applying next year, so we will see what happens. I plan to apply ED, as admit rates are much higher, and Duke is my #1 choice. I am double legacy, which according to my college counselor at my school counts more ED.
    Last edited by matt1; 03-29-2013 at 10:37 AM.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by snowdenscold View Post
    One of the (admittedly few) downsides is that for those of us who do alumni interviews, it becomes even less likely that any of the students we talk to in a given year will be accepted. It sort of eats at me to be sitting across from a 17 or 18 year old kid and talking for an hour, knowing in the back of my mind that there's very little chance they'll be accepted.


    Although what really bugs me is that I believe they now cut 1/3 of applicants early-on, before it was previously done and before the standard "twice-read" process takes place (which makes total sense given the huge increase in apps), but yet haven't figured out a way to incorporate that into the interview process. So 1 out of every 3 kids I talk to was probably already been cut by the time we sit down together, but I have no idea. Now maybe that number isn't quite as bad due to selection bias in the interview pool, but you get the idea.
    Yea, I used to do alumni interviews and I had a perfect, 100% record of not one single person I ever interviewed (admittedly not a huge number of interviews as I live in an area of the country with not a lot of Duke applicants) being admitted to Duke or even wait-listed. It was somewhat discouraging, even though I almost always highly recommended the applicant for admission to Duke and I interviewed a few students who I thought stood a chance at getting in. I'm not sure those alumni interviews have any real input of the admission hopes of any student.

    Interesting story on Bloomberg.com today about the low acceptance rates at many highly selective colleges.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...2013-2014.html

    I guess the belief is that the "common application" is encouraging many high school students to apply to multiple schools, thus increasing the overall applicant pool at many of these schools. My question would be what percentage of the applicants at Duke or Yale or Harvard are serious candidates for admission and how many are throw away applications. 50%? The bottom line is that there are many factors that go into who gets admitted, beyond just SAT scores and grades. Athletes, affirmative action candidates, legacy kids, "special situation" students and other special groups probably fill up 30% of the class at a place like Duke, not leaving a huge number of open positions for those not in one of those groups.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by cspan37421 View Post
    I know what you mean about interviews. I've seen many great kids not get in, and a few truly amazing kids not get in, or get waitlisted, too. Of the few that were offered admission, some leave me scratching my head. But we have to remember that we don't see transcripts, we don't see grades, we don't see test scores, we don't see teacher recommendations, we don't read their essays, and we may only get a glimpse into their extracurriculars, We only have the intervew and what comes out of that. We also don't know what they need in terms of class diversity (diversity along many lines - including academic interest). So it's terribly easy to question the committee's decisions based on limited information. But, I remind myself, it's a mistake.
    Oh, I totally understand why many of them might not get in, how we don't see the overall picture, etc. I'm not "upset" with the Admissions office for denying anyone in particular, but more just bemoaning connecting on a personal level with people year after year who have little chance, or who may have already been denied before we even talk. I do this as a volunteer, not as part of paid job duties in any way, so while I understand the helpful role we play to the admissions office (not only the work offload, but also by not seeing a student's transcript and thus having a different take), we're still not robots, there is a sting that comes along with it.
    I did have to step down this year from the AAAC since my daughter applied. She got in! Very excited for her. I think Duke is an even better place for her today than it was in my day, and I hated leaving after 4 short years.
    Congrats though!

    Quote Originally Posted by Reisen View Post
    My year (applying in fall of 1997 for fall of 1998 matriculation), I think the admit rate was around 30%.
    I was just a couple years later and it may have gone down a little bit, but yeah, who knows if I would even get in today!
    I can empathize with the alumni interviewers in this thread. I interview for campus recruiting for a Dow component firm at a couple of top MBA programs (including Duke). The numbers that will get an internship can be very low, and you're talking to dozens and dozens of very impressive people.
    Yeah, I hear ya. Though at least on the positive side it's part of your job and the people you are interviewing are 4 years older (not that high schoolers can't handle rejection, but I imagine it's easier on a 22 year old who has been through 4 years of college already).

    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    Yea, I used to do alumni interviews and I had a perfect, 100% record of not one single person I ever interviewed (admittedly not a huge number of interviews as I live in an area of the country with not a lot of Duke applicants) being admitted to Duke or even wait-listed.
    I got my first wait-list this year, but still no admits in 4 years. =(

    I guess the belief is that the "common application" is encouraging many high school students to apply to multiple schools, thus increasing the overall applicant pool at many of these schools. My question would be what percentage of the applicants at Duke or Yale or Harvard are serious candidates for admission and how many are throw away applications. 50%?
    I also have thought about the pros and cons of the common app. In theory, if the average student now applies to many more schools at about the same level, the admit rate should stay similar, since there will be more applicants, more admissions, and thus same ratio. The more admissions is needed because your matriculation rate will plummet as students have many more options. However, this surely must get skewed because people probably throw away a bunch of apps on stretch schools. So eventually once you get up to the top, the admit rates will fall accordingly. Also, with our population growing, and by definition the number of "top 10" schools" not growing (assuming they keep their population sizes steady), there's also naturally higher selectivity.

    So while the common app makes things easier on the students, and can lead to schools bragging about lower admit rates, it really burdens the admissions department (as evidenced by Duke now cutting 1/3 of applicants early on with just 1 reading), and by extension the alumni interview networks.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    Yea, I used to do alumni interviews and I had a perfect, 100% record of not one single person I ever interviewed (admittedly not a huge number of interviews as I live in an area of the country with not a lot of Duke applicants) being admitted to Duke or even wait-listed. It was somewhat discouraging, even though I almost always highly recommended the applicant for admission to Duke and I interviewed a few students who I thought stood a chance at getting in. I'm not sure those alumni interviews have any real input of the admission hopes of any student.
    Quote Originally Posted by snowdenscold View Post
    I got my first wait-list this year, but still no admits in 4 years. =(
    This is the 2nd year I've done interviews (5 each year for 10 total) and I've had 3 admits. I must be a good luck charm . However, the admitted student last year did not matriculate at Duke so I was was not super excited. I was very excited that one admit this year was early-decision so he/she will be at Duke next year. I've given very good reviews to all but one of my interviews. It's amazing how much more competitive the process is now than when I applied 18 years ago when, IIRC, the admit rate was ~25%.
    Coach K on Kyle Singler - "What position does he play? ... He plays winner."

    "Duke is never the underdog" - Quinn Cook

  14. #14

    Need real data

    I think it was either Mencken or Bierce who defined a platitude as something that a) everyone agrees is true, and b) is not true. In the absence of before and after data, controlled for population, blaming the common app for declining admit percentages strikes me as a platitude. From what I recall, demographically, there is a wave of college-age students that is cresting either this year or next. Maybe its an echo of the baby boom - or an echo of the echo. So part of it is that there's just so many more students. A related factor is that top schools have not grown their enrollment relative to the US population. They've grown but very, very slowly.

    Another factor that suggests that the common app as culprit story is a canard is that we regularly hear from admissions officers that the vast majority of applicants meet the academic standards for admission and could do the work at Duke or ____ just fine. This implies that it's not marginal students seizing upon the common app to take a chance, what the heck, what have they got to lose?

    But wait, there's more. Just about all of these top schools require a supplement, so it's not like you can just fill out the common app and click a checkbox for Duke, and you're done. No, there are essays. Also, consider the application fee. I think at least one of my DD's was $90. On top of that, there are a myriad of other fees: there is the cost of sending ACT/SAT scores, sending FAFSA, CSS/Profile, subject test scores, transcripts from for-credit summer college programs, ... Not to mention filling out the FAFSA is a full body cavity search for $$. My point is, I really doubt many people apply to Duke, Yale, Stanford, etc., lightly. It's no picnic, time-wise, dollar-wise.

    [edit: what it could be is strategic mass applying by top students. With declining admit %ages, they are hedging their bets of getting in at least one top school by applying to many top schools, more than they would if acceptance rates were in the 25-30% range].

    FWIW, my DD applied to 9 schools, of which, 7 used the common app. I think all 7 required a supplement. We were shocked she eventually got down to 9. There was a time when she was around two dozen and I didn't think we'd get it in half. But things fall into place with time.

    These are boom times for so-called second tier schools. If we can believe our admissions officer, there are many top-notch students who are not getting in the "Ivies Plus" and they're ending up enriching the intellectual life of other schools.

    cspan - no, I don't really watch it, it was a nickname that stuck. I like Book TV, though. But seriously, I'm sure home environment helped (Duke dad & Wake mom, both very involved in kids' academic lives), good teachers, and a good kid - who is borderline profoundly gifted. However, pointing to that as a reason for success is far too simplistic - DD works extremely hard to get where she has. I think her greatest gifts are the gifts of motivation, perserverance, and the ability to delay gratification. She would do well on the marshmallow test! She has never relied on brainpower to get her through - that's just a starting point.

    Getting back to interviewing - yes, I've had my heart broken for a number of kids. I've seen people who remind me of me in 1984-5, and I think, that kid has a lot of potential - he would thrive at Duke, like I did. But they just don't have room for all the great kids. That's the thing. You can be great, and still not get in.

    I was a tough grader on my interviews; as a chairperson I could see what my committee members ratings were, and I averaged a full point lower than they did, trying for a centered bell curve. But my AAAC coordinator knows that I grade hard and I'm sure that's taken into consideration. In other words, if I say someone is a 5, it really means something, because I don't give them out often. I try to follow the guidelines for grading closely, using the examples they provide.

    As I said, I had to step down this year from AAAC because DD applied. I even didn't represent Duke at college night at our local public HS, lest there be even the slightest appearance of a conflict of interest, etc. I hated to do that because in the past I've really enjoyed meeting kids and parents and talking about Duke. But I didn't want to chance anything, or someone coming back and saying, "Oh, now I know how she got in." Btw - one kid got in early from that local public HS. I don't know if he got interviewed or not. We're always short-handed on the committee, and typically can't get to everyone. DD transferred out of that school after 9th, but DS is there now - and he's a basketball player who loves Duke.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by snowdenscold View Post
    Also, with our population growing, and by definition the number of "top 10" schools" not growing (assuming they keep their population sizes steady), there's also naturally higher selectivity.
    Quote Originally Posted by cspan37421 View Post
    In the absence of before and after data, controlled for population, blaming the common app for declining admit percentages strikes me as a platitude. From what I recall, demographically, there is a wave of college-age students that is cresting either this year or next. Maybe its an echo of the baby boom - or an echo of the echo. So part of it is that there's just so many more students. A related factor is that top schools have not grown their enrollment relative to the US population. They've grown but very, very slowly.
    I did at least acknowledge this though

  16. #16

    Applications

    Quote Originally Posted by cspan37421 View Post
    I think it was either Mencken or Bierce who defined a platitude as something that a) everyone agrees is true, and b) is not true. In the absence of before and after data, controlled for population, blaming the common app for declining admit percentages strikes me as a platitude. From what I recall, demographically, there is a wave of college-age students that is cresting either this year or next. Maybe its an echo of the baby boom - or an echo of the echo. So part of it is that there's just so many more students. A related factor is that top schools have not grown their enrollment relative to the US population. They've grown but very, very slowly.
    If you are an old fart like me one factor that might be just as important as the common ap is computers. Applying to schools when you had to manually type out the applications was a big hassle. And there is no denying things have changed dramatically. I went to a large suburban very good high school and we had kids in my class go to HYP, Duke (five), Stanford and we would all compare notes. I don't think anyone applied to more than a half a dozen schools and most kids just applied to three or four. That is so far from the norm today for top students, the top students from that same school probably average a dozen or more applications.

    The admissions process at Duke and other schools is deeply flawed and tends to advantage the advantaged. Recent large studies have supported this as well as my own personal experience. I personally don't think much of the Duke admissions staff as they seem so proud of themselves and for what? There is no meaningful metric on which they are measured. I am totally convinced that I and a bunch of people on this board could get together over a weekend with a bunch of coffee or beer or medical marijuana and pick out a class that would be as successful in life as the admissions staff does.

    How could Duke do better?
    1) Develop some sort of metric to measure the performance of the admissions staff. One would be how many alumni continue giving after their children are rejected. I posit the argument that much of what they do is meaningless.
    2) Set some goals as to outreach to schools that have never sent kids to Duke or send very few.
    3) Totally unrealistic but develop two different sets of admissions criteria based on their social security number..odd or even and track after twenty years which strategy produced more productive alumni.

  17. #17
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    My youngest is a senior in college this year (WFU). One of the things that struck me when my kids went through the admissions process is the sheer number of schools to which they were encouraged to apply -- no less than 10 schools, and 12-15 is better. I wish the guidance counselors were paying for these application fees as they counsel these students!

    Can a person really WANT to go to that many schools? Back in my day, you'd apply to 3-4 schools: a reach school, one realistic choice (maybe two if you couldn't decide between them), and a safety. And it has been noted in this thread that each application had to be typed/filled out by hand, rather than the much easier common app (easier in every way except on the parents' wallet!).

    In the 80's people expected to go to one school representing 25-33% of the applications they submitted, while today that one school represents 6-8% of their applications. If the number of students stays the same (and more kids are going to college these days), the number of applications that schools receive necessarily goes way up. Perhaps returning to the days of applying to fewer schools, we'd find that kids have a better chance to get into the schools that they'd really like to attend.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by devil84 View Post
    My youngest is a senior in college this year (WFU). One of the things that struck me when my kids went through the admissions process is the sheer number of schools to which they were encouraged to apply -- no less than 10 schools, and 12-15 is better. I wish the guidance counselors were paying for these application fees as they counsel these students!

    Can a person really WANT to go to that many schools? Back in my day, you'd apply to 3-4 schools: a reach school, one realistic choice (maybe two if you couldn't decide between them), and a safety. And it has been noted in this thread that each application had to be typed/filled out by hand, rather than the much easier common app (easier in every way except on the parents' wallet!).

    In the 80's people expected to go to one school representing 25-33% of the applications they submitted, while today that one school represents 6-8% of their applications. If the number of students stays the same (and more kids are going to college these days), the number of applications that schools receive necessarily goes way up. Perhaps returning to the days of applying to fewer schools, we'd find that kids have a better chance to get into the schools that they'd really like to attend.
    This. From 2000 to 2006, our three children applied to colleges. Fortunately, they listened to fabulous mother and limited their applications. Our oldest applied to three just as D84 outlined above. Our middle child applied to five (two "reaches," two we/he thought where he'd be accepted and one "safety") and our youngest applied to four. We were very fortunate with their high school records and their subsequent acceptances and choices.

    I'm just glad Duke can't have a "do-over" with my app as I'm not sure I'd even sniff an acceptance letter with the numbers of the last decade or three.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  19. #19
    You claim, "There is no meaningful metric on which they are measured. " How do you know this?

    Having met some of the admissions people in person, I think you are being a bit harsh. One need only look to UVA to see how PTJ II is breathing down their necks, arguably misinterpreting and misapplying metrics like yield%.

    http://www.dailyprogress.com/news/uv...85b7474a1.html

    I'm not arguing the admissions staff should not be evaluated ... but that metrics are easily misused, such as the saying about statistics being used like a drunk uses a lamppost - for support, not illumination.

    I'm sure they consider the effects on alumni giving on their admissions decisions, and indeed, they give a slight edge (all else equal) to applicant children of alumni. I know it is hard on them when they get angry letters from alumni whose children don't get in, and who threaten to quit giving (or simply do). Duke's admissions decisions show up in public data - the common data set, so you see test scores, GPA, all kinds of stats that act as proxies for the quality of the incoming class.

    I can't speak to their recruiting from certain schools, but I'm not sure their diversity criteria include how many from one school versus another. I'm not sure that's weighed at all. I'm pretty sure they've spoken to this, but I can't recall their answer. You could contact them.

    Your third point and this sentence,

    "I am totally convinced that I and a bunch of people on this board could get together over a weekend with a bunch of coffee or beer or medical marijuana and pick out a class that would be as successful in life as the admissions staff does."

    seems to share the unstated premise that the job of the admissions staff is to pick out successful kids, and you think you could do it just as well. I would encourage some humility, and recognition that the admissions staff is balancing a great many factors in shaping a class, not just whether the kids are good students and likely to make big bucks or garner fame. They're considering diversity based on geographic representation, academic areas of interest, personal economic circumstances, extracurricular interests, alumni relations, URM considerations, athletic and musical talents, etc. You've got all kinds of spots to fill in student groups. You're creating a community. Yes, the second 9.9% might be just as successful as the first in terms of career earnings. But creating a freshman class is more than just predicting future earnings.

    I agree with you on the manually typing thing. That's a good point - you got one shot on those forms.

  20. #20

    Jaundiced

    Quote Originally Posted by cspan37421 View Post
    You claim, "There is no meaningful metric on which they are measured. " How do you know this?

    H.
    I must admit I have had negative experience with few of the Duke admissions people and it is not just sour grapes. When my son applied his was in some ways a standard application..straight As, good test scores, strong extracurriculars but what set him apart was an aptitude and motivation to learn foreign languages. His whole application depended upon how you viewed this. His first choice Yale viewed it highly and he was admitted the admissions officer for Duke who read his application IMHO "didn't get it" and he was not even wait listed. When out of an honest desire to make Duke better I suggested they might want to reevaluate such a view, the admissions officer was rude and condescending as was the director of admissions. (Yes I can be a pain in the I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.). Finally when President Broadhead (a Yalie) basically told them to look at it they did sort of admit it was an unusual application and perhaps they did not look at it carefully enough I am not sure they got my main point which is foreign languages are a significant and useful academic/cultural achievement and should be highly valued. Interestlingly president Broadhead grasped that quickly.

    The fact is that Duke is way behind Harvard, Yale, and Princeton in East Asian studies and that seems to be something Duke wants and needs to address. My son took it upon himself to be fluent in Japanese and Mandarin before he entered college (AFS year in Japan, gap year in Beijing), his Spanish teacher said he was the most gifted language student she ever had in her career. If Duke wants to open the door to China and Korea and Japan he is exactly the type of kid Duke should be recruiting. But he went to rural high school which has never sent a kid to Duke, his AFS year messed with his class ranking and he did not fit any "type" this particular admissions officer could understand. It was all very frustrating. Now to be fair I was left with the distinct impression the previous admissions person for Illinois would have admitted my son, but the one who read it is monolingual and I suspect not well traveled and just seemed to have more limited world view than I would want my alma maters admissions people to have.

    It is actually kind of interesting in that Duke is not alone and other schools are hit and miss with this in how they view such abilities and desires. But so many businesses are actively recruiting these skills that I think my bias towards linguistic ability is valid.

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