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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area

    NCAAT: the Sweet Sixteen

    Fun first weekend, and an historic performance by FGCU.

    These are the remaining matchups, with seed, [kenpom], and current line:

    Thu:

    3 Marquette [28] v. 2 Miami [13] -5.5
    4 Syracuse [12] v. 1 Indiana [3] -5.5

    6 Arizona [15] v. 2 Ohio St. [5] -3.5
    13 La Salle [46] v. 9 Wichita St [21] -4.0

    Fri:

    12 Oregon [31] v. 1 Louisville [2] -9.5
    3 Michigan St [6] v. 2 Duke [4] -2.0

    4 Michigan [8] v. 1 Kansas [9] -2.0
    15 FGCU [93] v. 3 Florida [1] -13.0

    In every game the higher seeded team is favored by Vegas, with Louisville and Florida projected to have easier games. No one else is favored by more than one or two possessions.

    -jk

  2. #2
    Vegas should offer a strangle on the FGCU/UF game. Say, +600 if the margin of victory is greater than five but less than 20 points.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    brooklyn
    just noticed that duke is 3-1 against the sweet sixteen this season. let's make it 7-1!

  4. #4
    Andy Glockner reporting that Reggie Johnson didn't make the trip due to injury. He hasn't been all that effective lately but that puts a ton of pressure on Gamble and Kadji, IMO.

  5. #5
    ^Johnson had surgery on his meniscus. Even though he hasn't been lighting in on fire, he's still been rebounding it pretty well so other Canes will need to step up. They say he could potentially be ready for the Final Four if they make it.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    Fun first weekend, and an historic performance by FGCU.

    These are the remaining matchups, with seed, [kenpom], and current line:

    15 FGCU [93] v. 3 Florida [1] -13.0
    I believe according to kenpom, florida is playing CGNU, or crazy go nuts university :P

    for the uninitiated:

    http://www.homestarrunner.com/sbemail26.html

    and for the theme song

    http://www.homestarrunner.com/sbemail73.html
    1200. DDMF.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    20 Minutes From The Heaven That Is Cameron Indoor
    Quote Originally Posted by vick View Post
    Andy Glockner reporting that Reggie Johnson didn't make the trip due to injury. He hasn't been all that effective lately but that puts a ton of pressure on Gamble and Kadji, IMO.
    Call me crazy, I think they are better without Reggie, especially given how Reggie has performed this year. They are much better with Gamble in the game and they still have the young 7 footer to rotate in when Gamble needs rest.

    Reggies has bogged down their offense and their D and generally gotten in the way. They are better defensively and offensively without him to me.

    They only lose out on having someone to push a defender out of the way for game winning tip ins.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by NovaScotian View Post
    just noticed that duke is 3-1 against the sweet sixteen this season. let's make it 7-1!
    Actually, Duke is 4-1 against the Sweet 16 (wins over Ohio State, Louisville, FGCU, and 1-1 against Miami).

  9. #9
    Reggie Johnson's last 8 games, starting with the Duke game, he's scored a TOTAL of 15 points on 5-24 shooting, while accumulating 15 turnovers and 17 fouls. He has managed 39 rebounds. But really, I think the Canes can replace his nearly 5 rebounds a game, and even if they can't, they can probably find someone who can put up more points than turnovers, and shoot over 20%. It's hard to argue they're losing a whole lot here.

    Johnson CAN be an effective player, but he isn't right now, and the Canes may be better off without him.

  10. #10
    Dev11's Avatar
    Dev11 is offline Commissioner of Statistics, DBR Podcast
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Boston
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    I believe according to kenpom, florida is playing CGNU, or crazy go nuts university :P

    for the uninitiated:

    http://www.homestarrunner.com/sbemail26.html

    and for the theme song

    http://www.homestarrunner.com/sbemail73.html
    When KenPom tweeted that out, I nearly died.

    ...and the Cheat will hit stuff with a golf club.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Pomeroy has us as a 53.7% favorite on Friday. If we win that, we have about a 39% chance of making the Final Four (Louisville is obviously the heavy favorite).

    In our region, Pomeroy's overall probabilities of making the Final Four are as follows:
    Louisville: 58.1%
    Duke: 21.1%
    MSU: 16.7%
    Oregon: 9.2%

    Pomeroy gives us the 5th best chance at winning the title (5.3%, or 1 in 19). UF (29.2%), Louisville (25.3%), Indiana (13.0%), and OSU (8.5%) are ahead. And OSU is only ahead because they have a MUCH easier path to the Final Four than Duke (reducing the probability that they lose before the Final Four and thus don't get the chance to win it all).

    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...sweet_16_log51

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    20 Minutes From The Heaven That Is Cameron Indoor
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Pomeroy has us as a 53.7% favorite on Friday. If we win that, we have about a 39% chance of making the Final Four (Louisville is obviously the heavy favorite).

    In our region, Pomeroy's overall probabilities of making the Final Four are as follows:
    Louisville: 58.1%
    Duke: 21.1%
    MSU: 16.7%
    Oregon: 9.2%

    Pomeroy gives us the 5th best chance at winning the title (5.3%, or 1 in 19). UF (29.2%), Louisville (25.3%), Indiana (13.0%), and OSU (8.5%) are ahead. And OSU is only ahead because they have a MUCH easier path to the Final Four than Duke (reducing the probability that they lose before the Final Four and thus don't get the chance to win it all).

    http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...sweet_16_log51
    Thanks. Good stuff. If our guys can play at a high level, I like our chances against any team remaining in the field. I do agree Louisville would be the toughest challenge, and honestly, after them, I think for Duke, Miami would be the next toughest challenge.

    The key is can our guys put in a 4 game stretch playing at or near their best basketball. I know the odds are still long, and we have the toughest path by far, but it can happen.

    What really sucks to me, is the fact that Kelly missed the 13 games and is still coming back up to speed, and Seth has been hurt the entire year. If an buts and all that, but had those two guys been 100% healthy from Oct 15 until now, I feel this team could have been a 2 or 3 loss team, Number 1 overall seed, and heavy favorites to win it all. Sort of like the Kyrie year, the injuries robbed us of a dominant team while still leaving us good enough to be 1 of a handful of teams in the mix to win it.

    All that said, here we are in the Sweet 16 still alive an in the mix.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    North Carolina
    The odds are long but somebody will win!

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    brooklyn
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Actually, Duke is 4-1 against the Sweet 16 (wins over Ohio State, Louisville, FGCU, and 1-1 against Miami).
    Good call! Believe it or not, I was counting fgcu, but had forgotten about OSU.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    ... In our region, Pomeroy's overall probabilities of making the Final Four are as follows:
    Louisville: 58.1%
    Duke: 21.1%
    MSU: 16.7%
    Oregon: 9.2%
    ...
    = 105.1%

    I didn't major in statistics, but ... can 2 from our region make it to the Final Four? (5.1% chance?)

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    = 105.1%

    I didn't major in statistics, but ... can 2 from our region make it to the Final Four? (5.1% chance?)
    Yeah, that was a typo by me: Oregon has only a 4.1% chance of making the Final Four (I looked at the wrong row: LaSalle is the team with a 9.2% chance).

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Yeah, that was a typo by me: Oregon has only a 4.1% chance of making the Final Four (I looked at the wrong row: LaSalle is the team with a 9.2% chance).
    Darn. Alec Balwin and I had two teams from our region making it to the Final Four. Would have been a huge upset.

  18. #18
    I can't even explain Miami's performance thus far. Not much effort being expended, and really poor decision making. And Larkin has 2 fouls.

    This team looks stunned. By what, I'm not sure.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Sewanee, Tennessee

    Streaming issues?

    Is anyone else having problems? CBS' site is freezing up every five seconds, as are several firstrow links.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Team Shoes can't throw it in the ocean.

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