Will We See Changes

[jipops]

In the past, I've called Coach K "rigid." After watching him this season, I no longer think that's the case. He's made so many changes from last year to this year, and then within this year, that I've actually marveled at his ability to adjust.
First, the larger philosophies:

1) His recruiting has changed, to a certain degree. Yes, he wanted Brandan Wright. Yes, Duke's hot after Greg Monroe. But Coach K never recruited the maximum number of scholarship players in the past. Now, he's routinely bringing in large numbers of players, and he's targeting a number of 3- or 4-year guys. I think this year we're caught right in the middle of the transition, because Duke is ridiculously young, but not filled with the type of young players who will dominate right away. But there's no question that guys like Henderson and Scheyer will be outstanding players at Duke, that they have tons of room to get better, and that they'll probably be at Duke for 3 and 4 years, respectively.

2) Offensive system -- Coach K completely changed the team's offense from what he'd done the previous couple of years (run J.J. off screens or dump it into Shelden), utilized McRoberts' skills as a point center and put more true motion back into the O.

3) Defensive system -- The help scheme has changed somewhat this year, as has the ball pressure. Duke always used to trade forced turnovers for offensive rebounds given up. Well, Duke's not forcing as many turnovers this year, but the team is rebounding better than any Duke team in a long time.

In-season adjustments:

1) K revamped the offense again during the season. He stopped running stuff through McRoberts as a point forward. Then he started dumping the ball into the block to McRoberts. Then he stopped that, and added the weave to put even more motion into the system. And then yesterday, he essentially played 5-out on offense, spreading the floor, opening up the lane for guys to drive and cut. These are more changes within one season than I can remember.

2) Handling Paulus -- The staff deserves a lot of credit for helping Paulus overcome some of his struggles (I'm willing to bet that we find out after the year that his foot never healed, just like how we never knew about his wrist injury until he had surgery after last season). He went to more of a motion system that took the ball out of Greg's hands some and helped Greg find confidence in his jumper. Now, when Greg shoots, I think the ball's going in. (As an aside, picture last year's team with Paulus shooting like he is now, a healthy Nelson and McClure ... sigh).

3) Bench utlization. Others disagree, but I think we've seen K make many adjustments here. Of the nine scholarship players, everyone except Pocius was earning major minutes in at least one point of the season. Zoubek, people forget, got big minutes against several of our early, tough opponents, including Marquette (13) and Georgetown (16). Then his minutes dropped again. Then he played double digits 3 out of 4 games (SJ St., Temple, VT, GT). Then they dropped again. His fluctuation was almost always tied to performance. And, in a game like Maryland, for instance, he stayed in when he was playing well. Thomas' minutes have fluctuated even more wildly, again based on performance. And Pocius, who was getting DNP-CDs early in the year, is at least getting into games now.
K has tried all sorts of rotations, all sorts of lineup combinations. Lately, he's settled into a routine of playing everyone in the first half, and then going to seven guys in the second half, which should be enough to prevent fatigue. Yesterday, the seven-man second half became six, and the small lineup cut into the lead before UNC ran away with it. But it's totally unfair to say that K hasn't given everyone a chance to play, and earn more playing time. Guys who have played well have been rewarded; don't forget that McClure opened the year in a reduced role (only 15 and 13 minutes against Air Force and Marquette, respectively), as did Henderson (single-digit minutes in those same two games, 12 minutes against Georgetown, etc.).

In short, I think we've seen a ton of adjustments this year, and they will benefit Duke greatly down the road. There's only so much you can ask a guy to do. Just because someone is a high recruit doesn't mean he should be expected to play that way immediately. Zoubek, for instance, was never expected to be a stud as a freshman. If you watch him play, you know his lower body needs to get stronger (I've been saying that since December on the old board). That's going to take another summer, at least. We live in such an instant-gratification society that we forget that player development takes time. Just think back to all the previous Duke players who improved dramatically from their freshman to senior seasons.

Patience, guys. Patience.

Thanks for this, makes reading the board fun. Regarding your comments on Zoubek, his weak lower body strength seems to be the primary reason for the traveling issue. I truly do believe the kid has some nice low post skills, even if he is slow to make them. With no strength in the lower body it makes things difficult for him to make a move in the paint. Certainly hope this will be a focus for him in the offseason. Certainly is nice to see him become a strong one-on-one defender in the post. The help part obviously needs work, as is the case with most young bigs.

[bhd28]

It always interests me when people to ask if Josh is ready to be an impact player in the NBA. Of course he isn't. Shelden averages less than 5 and 5 and shoots less than 45% from the field. JJ averages 6, 1, and 1 shooting under 41%. So apparently, they weren't ready to make an impact. (People like LeBron have definitely spoiled our expectations of NBA rookies... outside of the top few players, not too many make impacts their first years... and even them having a big impact is rare.) Josh will not think about next year. He will think about whether being at Duke or on an NBA team will have greater potential to make him into an impact player in years to come. That only makes sense. I am definitely glad he was around this year. It would have been a very rough year without him. I hope he comes back, though... even if it isn't likely.

[Jumbo]

i do, however, disagree with you and the other posters that seem to think that k now is passing on the "1 and done" guys and going for players that will hang around for 3 or 4 years and slowly develop into all americans.

Good point -- one I should have been more clear in addressing. I don't think Coach K is eschewing top players. As you mentioned, he brought in Josh. When Duke recruited him, the coaches didn't think he'd go pro out of high school, but there was a very strong chance he was going to leave after last season. Duke has Singler coming in next year, who is a consensus top-5 player. Duke is going hard after Greg Monroe the next year, who might be the top player in his class. Clearly, Duke will keep recruiting elite talent.

There are a couple of places where a philosophy change is evident, though. One is already happening -- bringing in bigger classes. Last year K brought in five guys. This year we've got four frosh. Next year, hopefully we'll have four frosh again. These stocked rosters will protect Duke against one-and-done guys. Yes, there might be some attrition in the form of transfers, but by and large, Duke should always have a solid core of returning players moving forward.

Secondly, I don't think K is going to recruit multiple Josh McRobertses or Greg Monroes. One "superstar" per class might be enough. I could be reaching here, but I think we might see some sort of revolving door of short-term players, potentially one per class. (Of course, if Coach K signs the top 2 players in the class of 2009 or something, forget I ever said that).

Finally, I do not think Coach K will recruit players who are clear one-and-done guys. I think when K went after Brandan Wright, he honestly believed he'd be a guy who would stay for two years. K got two years out of Josh. K should get two, at least, out of Singler. I've heard it said that Duke could have gotten involved in Ellington's recruitment early on, but decided he was likely a one-year guy, while Henderson would likely stay three years. Coach K said on ESPN's Sunday Conversation last night that he doesn't like the one-year rule, that guys should be free to go pro out of high school, but that if you come to college, you really should stay at least two years so you've made progress toward a degree. So, I think K will try to find the best players who have the best chance of staying a while, moving forward.

Finally, just a small note on recruiting rankings. I hate 'em. They are such an inexact science, and the worst thing of all is the way guys shoot up the boards once Duke or UNC or Kansas start recruiting them. The recruiting "gurus" notice a top program on the tail of a kid, and decide he must be great. It's the same phenomenon with McDonald's All-Americans -- guys get named to the team, sometimes, just because they are heading to Duke. If you look back at old recruiting rankings, it's amazing how they end up all over the map. I don't even look at kids as "disappointments" anymore when they don't live up to what Dave Telep or Bob Gibbons said about them in high school, nor do I see guys as huge surprises when they exceed those same expectations. Recruiting is a really tricky thing, and there's just no good way to measure a player's true ability to contribute at the college level.

[dukie8]

It always interests me when people to ask if Josh is ready to be an impact player in the NBA. Of course he isn't. Shelden averages less than 5 and 5 and shoots less than 45% from the field. JJ averages 6, 1, and 1 shooting under 41%. So apparently, they weren't ready to make an impact. (People like LeBron have definitely spoiled our expectations of NBA rookies... outside of the top few players, not too many make impacts their first years... and even them having a big impact is rare.) Josh will not think about next year. He will think about whether being at Duke or on an NBA team will have greater potential to make him into an impact player in years to come. That only makes sense. I am definitely glad he was around this year. It would have been a very rough year without him. I hope he comes back, though... even if it isn't likely.

what makes you think that? dunleavy had zero money concerns at duke and went for the quick buck over a possible second national title and very possible national poy award. shav was at best a role player at duke and now is earning more than probably every non-athlete in his class at duke. money talks and mcroberts can be making a lot of it next year if he wants it.

[dukie8]

i agree that rankings are ridiculous but we live in a society that is obsessed with rankings. just look at how much people care what we are ranked despite the fact that the polls are a disgrace.

do you think that k now would not bring in a super class like the brand/battier/burgess/avery or the boozer/j will/dunleavy ones if he could? it's a good problem to have. i agree that by using all the scholarships and bringing in big classes, he won't be caught offguard like he was this year with no seniors and only 1 junior who basically missed 1 of his seasons. however, i also think that we are going to get hit with more transfers. we had 2 this year. if we bring in 3 top frosh next year, the 200 minutes per game can't be chopped up to satisfy everyone. at least 1 of marty, zoubek or thomas is gone in that case. however, it has been pointed out numerous times before on here, none of duke's transfers over the past 20 years really did much after leaving duke (chappell won a nc but he hardly was a key cog in it).

[tbyers11]

jumbo, thanks for a well thought out and well reasoned post. i do, however, disagree with you and the other posters that seem to think that k now is passing on the "1 and done" guys and going for players that will hang around for 3 or 4 years and slowly develop into all americans. for one, mcroberts is precisely that kind of player -- he was ranked #1 or #2 coming out of high school (depending on who was doing the ranking) and was flirting with the nba both during his senior year in hs and last year. he is the epitomy of the kind of player people on this thread think that k now eschews! the problem is that he hasn't come even remotely close to what he was projected to become. paulus was ranked #13 overall and the #2 pg who went to college (behind chalmers). he was supposed to get handed the keys to the pg slot for 4 years and be a star all 4 years. after playing nearly 2 full seasons at the starting pg at duke, he was not supposed to be getting shown up by the #93 rated freshman, vasquez, this year.

if we then move to this year's class, henderson was ranked #10 out of hs and right in front of darrell arthur. he was followed by thomas (#20), zoubek (#25) and scheyer (#28). after unc's 3 in the top 8, that was the best recruiting class. reading some of these posts, you would think that k has decided to slum it and dig down into the 100+ ranked recruits. these guys are as blue chip as they come but just have not lived up to their advance billing. i think it is very revisionist now to be looking at a team full of high school all americans that have struggled mightily this year and conclude that this is all part of some master plan by k to build a team with 3 and 4 year guys. contrast that to the recruiting that guys like skinner do -- smith and dudley weren't even ranked in their high school classes!

btw, i was using rsci for the rankings, which can be found here:

http://home.nc.rr.com/rsci/

I don't think that Coach K is eschwing "one and done" players. McRoberts is an example of a player that few, likely Coach K included, expected to be around after a year or two. I said that I don't think Duke is going to recruit as many of these players at once for fear that the team will be left in the current situation with very few upperclassmen should these one and done players leave early. Therefore, I don't expect Coach K to recruit multiple one-and-doners in the same class (like Lawson, Wright, and Ellington down the road), but to mix in these one-and-doners with more likely 3 and 4 year players.

Also, recruiting rankings aren't based only on the impact that freshman are predicted to have in the first year. Scheyer and Zoubek both need to grow into their bodies. Lance's offensive game needs time to develop. IMO, Gerald had the biggest opportunity to have a significant impact from day one. He has started to show that ability recently. Did his preseason injuries or his asthma hold him back or did he just need time to adjust to the college game, I don't know.

Josh hasn't had the season most expected him to have, especially on the offensive end. That is a big reason for Duke's less than great season. Paulus, IMO, has played quite well since the first Georgia Tech game as he finally started to get healthy. Has he lived up to the mythical #2 ranking bestowed on him, I don't think so. However, with point guards like Greg that are not blow-by-their-man with ease point guards like Singletary or Lawson, success is much more dependent on the other members of the team functioning as a cohesive unit. Yes, I realize that if Greg plays better the team plays better. But, I think right now that the rest of team is a bigger problem than Greg. I'm sure many will disagree with me on this point.

Paulus is never going to be Jason Williams, but I think his role in running the team is similar to Chris Duhon. Duhon was vilified on Duke message boards in his junior year when he and the team were "struggling" compared to the previous year. That 2003 team lost have several key players from the previous year and had returning players have to fill new leadership roles with several incoming freshman. This year's team has the same issues as the 2003 team. Ewing's junior year compares to Nelson's year. Paulus' struggles compare to Duhon's. A big difference is that Josh hasn't stepped up like Dahntay did in 2003. Give Duke 2007 a weaker ACC, a less hellish conference schedule and a shot or two to fall against VT, UVa, or FSU and I tihnk Duke 2007's conference record would be pretty close to the 11-5 record posted by Duke 2003.

I also think that Duke 2008 will be much closer to the 2004 team record-wise than it will be to this year's team and that Paulus will have a big role in the success of that team as the entire team gets more experience and he, knock on wood, has a healthy season.

[Jumbo]

i agree that rankings are ridiculous but we live in a society that is obsessed with rankings. just look at how much people care what we are ranked despite the fact that the polls are a disgrace.

do you think that k now would not bring in a super class like the brand/battier/burgess/avery or the boozer/j will/dunleavy ones if he could? it's a good problem to have. i agree that by using all the scholarships and bringing in big classes, he won't be caught offguard like he was this year with no seniors and only 1 junior who basically missed 1 of his seasons. however, i also think that we are going to get hit with more transfers. we had 2 this year. if we bring in 3 top frosh next year, the 200 minutes per game can't be chopped up to satisfy everyone. at least 1 of marty, zoubek or thomas is gone in that case. however, it has been pointed out numerous times before on here, none of duke's transfers over the past 20 years really did much after leaving duke (chappell won a nc but he hardly was a key cog in it).

I think a future "superclass" would depend on the types of kids involved. Obviously, if K could ever find another Shane Battier, he'd grab him in a heartbeat, since K would know he'd get a long career out of him. Dunleavy was a late-bloomer who stayed three years. The J-Will/Boozer combo was interesting, in that they both ended up staying three years, even though Boozer flirted with going pro out of high school. I think K will have to take a look at the kind of person the kid is as much as the kind of player he is (not that he doesn't already). Plus, it's always important to remember that given Duke's academic standards, there's a very high percentage of recruits that Duke just can't touch in the first place. So, it's not like Duke can even consider every top kid -- it's only a small list that end up on Duke's radar.

As far as transfers go, I'm not especially worried. Boykin's transfer was totally unrelated to playing time. I can guarantee you that Zoubek is going nowhere and I'm very, very confident that Lance won't go anywhere. I guess I could see Marty leaving for more playing time or a chance to play pro in Europe, but he also seems to be a kid who loves Duke. But, again, I can live with attrition as a result of big classes. It's going to become a survival of the fittest type of situation with 12 or 13 guys on scholarship. And I also think guys will be rewarded for sticking it out and working hard.

[bhd28]

what makes you think that? dunleavy had zero money concerns at duke and went for the quick buck over a possible second national title and very possible national poy award. shav was at best a role player at duke and now is earning more than probably every non-athlete in his class at duke. money talks and mcroberts can be making a lot of it next year if he wants it.

Oh... I didn't mean Josh wouldn't think about the $$ he could make next year, or that it wouldn't be a decision based on $$. I posted for people who say he isn't ready to be an impact guy next year. I think Josh knows he probably wouldn't be an impact guy next year. If he goes it will be partly about getting paid ASAP and partly because he thinks he could develop as quickly or more quickly in the NBA while getting paid as he could at Duke. Could he? Who knows. That is up to Josh and how hard he is willing to work.

[SoCalDukeFan]

How has the NBA affected this year's team?

I know that Deng would be a senior so I guess we lost senior leadership. But we had plenty of time to recruit to replace the talent. And it was probably wishful thinking to think he was staying 4 years.

Livingston - again plenty of team to replace the talent and wishful thinking to think he would be here.

Anyone I forgot?

SoCal

[BDevilU]

This "change" just in...

Per the league office:

Duke Blue Devil players will now be required to call out "BOOYA!" when setting solid screens vs. UNC... so that Tar Heel players will be able to avoid any "malicious" contact that might cause them to rattle their teeth or otherwise damage their pretty little faces. This rule will be known as the "Future Endorsement Protection Clause" aka The Tyler Wants To Sell Trucks On TV Rule.

[Jumbo]

How has the NBA affected this year's team?

I know that Deng would be a senior so I guess we lost senior leadership. But we had plenty of time to recruit to replace the talent. And it was probably wishful thinking to think he was staying 4 years.

Livingston - again plenty of team to replace the talent and wishful thinking to think he would be here.

Anyone I forgot?

SoCal

We've had time to replace talent, but not experience. Duke got a combined one year out of Deng, Humphries and Livingston. That's not what was expected. Plus, those smaller classes in general left us with the void in upperclassmen Duke is now trying to fill. The more important thing is not that Deng didn't stay through his senior year; it's that K didn't bring anyonee else in with him (hence no other seniors). That won't happen again.

[The Gordog]

How, I wish that were true. Sadly, while I think you (and everyone else) should still be giddy about next year, you should not be including Josh in your plans. C'est la vie.
Either way, thanks for another nice reply, Chard. I'm glad to see the board calming down a bit after yesterday, and I hope we can all enjoy what's left of the season.

Let's all just hope that Patrick Patterson (sp?) agrees with you. If he concludes that Josh is gone it seems more likely he'll choose Duke.

[crimsondevil]

if we then move to this year's class, henderson was ranked #10 out of hs and right in front of darrell arthur. he was followed by thomas (#20), zoubek (#25) and scheyer (#28). after unc's 3 in the top 8, that was the best recruiting class. reading some of these posts, you would think that k has decided to slum it and dig down into the 100+ ranked recruits. these guys are as blue chip as they come but just have not lived up to their advance billing. i think it is very revisionist now to be looking at a team full of high school all americans that have struggled mightily this year and conclude that this is all part of some master plan by k to build a team with 3 and 4 year guys. contrast that to the recruiting that guys like skinner do -- smith and dudley weren't even ranked in their high school classes!

I agree (as Jumbo clarified) that we are not totally passing on "one-and-dones", but K does seem to be deemphasizing. Remember, there are not 20 guys every year who could potentially be one-and-dones. Glancing at last year's list, I'd say it extends to about #8 (before Henderson). Contrast K's approach with UNC who has 3 possible one-and-dones.

[DukieUGA]

i remember when people were saying that Zoubek had great post moves for a high school 7 footer and that he would have an immediate impact. Hasn't happened. People were saying that McRoberts had such a polished skill set that he would be dominating quickly, and although he does have lots of skills, he is far from dominating. Z may well develop those skills, and McRoberts may well dominate later but i point that out simply b/c people are now saying that Singler will step in and score lots of points right away with his great post moves etc. Could happen, just don't count on it.

[Matches]

Could happen, just don't count on it.

Very true. I think a lot of folks view recruiting as an exact science. It isn't.

[FewFAC]

Most of these players probably could have had an immediate impact under a different philosophy. I think the "earn PT" philosophy is pretty counterproductive developmentally speaking. The University has already concluded they have "earned" a $150,000 scholarship, and the staff rubs it with a diaper.

[Chard]

i remember when people were saying that Zoubek had great post moves for a high school 7 footer and that he would have an immediate impact. Hasn't happened. People were saying that McRoberts had such a polished skill set that he would be dominating quickly, and although he does have lots of skills, he is far from dominating. Z may well develop those skills, and McRoberts may well dominate later but i point that out simply b/c people are now saying that Singler will step in and score lots of points right away with his great post moves etc. Could happen, just don't count on it.

Good point. However, once you see Singler play I bet you will change your mind.

[VaDukie]

I am anxiously waiting for Singler to arrive on campus. Singler + an improved Henderson makes us a top 5 team.

[Jumbo]

Most of these players probably could have had an immediate impact under a different philosophy. I think the "earn PT" philosophy is pretty counterproductive developmentally speaking. The University has already concluded they have "earned" a $150,000 scholarship, and the staff rubs it with a diaper.

Playing time shouldn't be earned? OK, then, how should it be determined?

[Jumbo]

Very true. I think a lot of folks view recruiting as an exact science. It isn't.

I certainly don't think recruiting is an exact science. I do trust my own eyes, however. I will be very surprised if what I've seen from Singler doesn't translate at the next level.