Duke in the AP Poll - Historical Stats

[Blue KevIL]

Recently, I had some time to do some AP Poll research and came accross some stats that may be of interest to readers of this board...

The AP Poll on Monday March 4, 2013 was the 1066th poll that I could confirm through multiple sources:
(Duke Media Guide, NCAA Record Book, ACC Media Guide, www.sports-reference.com/cbb)
The first Mike Krzyzewski-coached Duke team to appear in the AP Poll was on February 14, 1984 -- the 534th poll.
So that gives us a perfect split between the first 533 polls and the subsequent 533 polls.

In the first 533 polls (Jan 18, 1949 to Feb 13, 1984):

• Duke appeared in 192 polls
• Duke was ranked #1 for 18 weeks
• Duke was ranked in the Top 5 for 64 weeks
• Duke was ranked in the Top 10 for 141 weeks
• Duke's record during this time: 654-351 .651

In the second 533 polls (Feb 14, 1984 to Mar 4, 2013):

• Duke appeared in 505 polls
• Duke was ranked #1 for 109 weeks
• Duke was ranked in the Top 5 for 284 weeks
• Duke was ranked in the Top 10 for 442 weeks
• Duke's record during this time: 826-199 .806

It goes without saying that Duke has significantly improved as a program in AP Polls weeks 534-1066.
But, how does this compare against the 5 other programs generally considered to be the "blue bloods" of college basketball?
Note: I based my W-L figures on what can be found at www.sports-reference.com/cbb

1st 533	#1	Top 5	Top 10	Total	W	L	PCT
Duke	18	64	141	192	654	351	.651
Indiana	39	104	155	241	620	309	.667
Kansas	9	59	114	180	621	338	.648
Kentucky	77	262	354	404	801	206	.795
UNC	36	187	280	363	749	264	.739
UCLA	124	231	322	376	824	205	.801

2nd 533	#1	Top 5	Top 10	Total	W	L	PCT
Duke	109	284	442	505	826	199	.806
Indiana	15	72	120	289	612	328	.651
Kansas	49	237	345	467	833	195	.810
Kentucky	22	156	275	384	762	238	.762
UNC	72	226	344	446	773	247	.758
UCLA	10	70	125	281	647	296	.686

Variance	#1	Top 5	Top 10	Total	W	L	PCT
Duke	+91	+220	+301	+313	+172	-152	+.155
Indiana	-24	-32	-35	+48	-8	+19	-.016
Kansas	+40	+178	+231	+287	+212	-143	+.163
Kentucky	-55	-106	-79	-20	-39	+32	-.033
UNC	+36	+39	+64	+83	+24	-17	+.018
UCLA	-114	-161	-197	-95	-177	91	-.115

[WakeDevil]

Why don't you be a man and post that on IC?

[davekay1971]

Wow, that's an awesome OP! Strong, strong work!

My takeaway from that analysis:

UNC isn't good enough to be our rival. Kansas is our true rival!

[hurleyfor3]

UNC has gotten better since K arrived. You're welcome, Tar Heels!

[bbq-devil]

Wow. Since K's arrival, Duke has been #1 as many weeks as UNC, Kentucky, and Indiana COMBINED

Awesome stat to use on our powder blue "friends"

[Kedsy]

Wow, great post. The thing that amazes me most is that Duke's dominance of the "second 533" is in almost all ways better than UCLA's dominance of the "first 533." Although obviously UCLA has more natties (but it was a completely different tournament, really) and their numbers were mostly condensed in an amazing 12 year stretch.

It's also nice to see Duke's "second 533" is better than Kentucky's "first 533."

Again, nice work, Blue KevIL.

[-jk]

Remember, the poll was Top 20 for a long time, with several years of just Top 10 (coinciding with the Bubas era), before the current poll as expanded to the "Top 25" in '90.

-jk

[SCMatt33]

Along the same lines, http://www.collegepollarchive.com/ is a great site for organizing polls only. There are some slight variances, maybe 1 or 2 polls difference for some teams, but it is very simple for sorting this type of data for appearances, top 10's, number 1's and by any period of years.

[TruBlu]

UNC has gotten better since K arrived. You're welcome, Tar Heels!

You misspelled "bitter".