Oscar night

[Olympic Fan]

Okay, I haven't seen all the nominated flics, but I've followed the commentary closely. I think I'd try to project the six main awards, listed in order of my confidence in the pick:

Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis ... it's almost unanimous that he's going to win for the title role in Lincoln.

Best supporting actress Ann Hathaway for Les Miz ... again everything I read or have heard suggests it's hers

Best Picture: Argo ... I read an interesting rationale for why this wins. The largest voting block in the academy are the actors and actresses and there seems to be widespread disappointment that Affleck got shafted by the director's guild (the various specialities make the nomination, then the whole membership votes on the award). Argo should benefit from Affleck's peers showing him support.

Best Director: Steven Spielberg. This is where it starts to get tough -- a lot of admiration for Ang Lee for Pi. But all those actors and actresses who vote for Argo over Lincoln for Best Picture will compensate by voting for Lincoln's diretor.

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty. Another toughie, a lot of sentiment for Jennifer Lawrence and for Emmanuelle Riva.

Best supporting actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln. Just guessing here -- hard to pick against De Niro.

BTW, Shouldn't we think about establishing a categy for child actors? Quvenzhane Wallis was amazing, but it's ridiculous to have a nine-year old compoeting for best actress. I'm not sue whether her performance was acting per se ... put Wallis in a category with the two kids from Moonrise Kingdom and give one of them the Oscar.

Anyway, those are my guesses ... I challenge you to do better!

[A-Tex Devil]

Okay, I haven't seen all the nominated flics, but I've followed the commentary closely. I think I'd try to project the six main awards, listed in order of my confidence in the pick:

Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis ... it's almost unanimous that he's going to win for the title role in Lincoln.

Best supporting actress Ann Hathaway for Les Miz ... again everything I read or have heard suggests it's hers

Best Picture: Argo ... I read an interesting rationale for why this wins. The largest voting block in the academy are the actors and actresses and there seems to be widespread disappointment that Affleck got shafted by the director's guild (the various specialities make the nomination, then the whole membership votes on the award). Argo should benefit from Affleck's peers showing him support.

Best Director: Steven Spielberg. This is where it starts to get tough -- a lot of admiration for Ang Lee for Pi. But all those actors and actresses who vote for Argo over Lincoln for Best Picture will compensate by voting for Lincoln's diretor.

Best Actress: Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty. Another toughie, a lot of sentiment for Jennifer Lawrence and for Emmanuelle Riva.

Best supporting actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln. Just guessing here -- hard to pick against De Niro.

BTW, Shouldn't we think about establishing a categy for child actors? Quvenzhane Wallis was amazing, but it's ridiculous to have a nine-year old compoeting for best actress. I'm not sue whether her performance was acting per se ... put Wallis in a category with the two kids from Moonrise Kingdom and give one of them the Oscar.

Anyway, those are my guesses ... I challenge you to do better!

I liked Zero Dark Thirty, and I like Jessica Chastain. But I thought there are about a dozen actresses in Hollywood that could have done well in that. Surprised she is a favorite.

[throatybeard]

I just want to observe that Roger Deakins could make me teaching class look like Reese Witherspoon taking a shower.

[DU82]

BTW, Shouldn't we think about establishing a categy for child actors? Quvenzhane Wallis was amazing, but it's ridiculous to have a nine-year old compoeting for best actress. I'm not sue whether her performance was acting per se ... put Wallis in a category with the two kids from Moonrise Kingdom and give one of them the Oscar.

As I'm sure you know, there used to be a juvenile award, first given to Shirley Temple in 1935, and last given to Hayley Mills in 1961.

Then Patty Duke (at 16) won the best supporting actress award, and the Academy decided that young actors could compete, and haven't given out a junior Oscar since.

Mickey Rooney and other recipients have appeared in the past when the Oscar telecast honored all past acting award winners, as I believe they've done with all other honorary winners.

[throatybeard]

Hayley Mills

Ah, Miss Bliss.

[darthur]

For general interest, Nate Silver did predictions:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ion-style/?hpw

Picture: Argo (Right)
Director: Steven Spielburg (Wrong, but he had Ang Lee as an extremely close second)
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Right)
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Right)
Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones (Wrong; he had Christopher Waltz in third)
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Right)

Apparently, the oscars are harder to predict statistically than the election . Actually, that's not really surprising. There's fewer people voting and the "polling" is much less reliable.

[Olympic Fan]

For general interest, Nate Silver did predictions:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ion-style/?hpw

Picture: Argo (Right)
Director: Steven Spielburg (Wrong, but he had Ang Lee as an extremely close second)
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Right)
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (Right)
Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones (Wrong; he had Christopher Waltz in third)
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Right)

Apparently, the oscars are harder to predict statistically than the election . Actually, that's not really surprising. There's fewer people voting and the "polling" is much less reliable.

Well, he got one more than me, so I'm not going to knock him.

BTW, I'm not usually a Seth McFarlane fan, but thought he did a good job as host ... (especially his song about "Boobs")

[brevity]

Stifler won an Oscar?!?

christerrio.jpg

Kidding. Congratulations to Argo screenwriter Chris Terrio.

Lousy show. Sorry. Not the host's fault: Seth MacFarlane was fine, and a good sport. (Not entirely unlike early, pre-institution Billy Crystal.) Some years the host seemingly disappears for long stretches at a time, making us wonder why we need a host at all. Seth stuck around and, well, hosted. Interacted well with Shatner. Didn't mention his movie (or anything about himself) in the monologue. Plugged the ABC network. Didn't roll his eyes.

The problem was the producers and director. Getting the guys behind Chicago and TV's "Smash" to bring out Catherine Zeta-Jones (of Chicago) and Jennifer Hudson (of TV's "Smash") for unnecessary musical numbers was self-serving. And the director, who I think does this job every year, missed just about every opportunity to cut to a famous seated person. I especially liked when they were presenting Beasts of the Southern Wild, and the camera goes to the cast of Silver Linings Playbook. The telecast should be tight and professional. This one was loose and amateur.

The second problem was the presenters. Last year's ceremony was an unacknowledged peak: perfect dialogue and perfect selection, mostly of former SNL cast members and actors who have hosted SNL and are comfortable doing live TV. This year was a return to the norm, where millionaire actors come up on stage and flub their lines, the one thing they're supposed to be good at doing.

Finally, the speeches. I'm not really sure why winners just list off a bunch of names of industry executives instead of, you know, making a speech. (Even Stifler and Tarantino, who are in the business of writing, disappointed.) A few people said a sentence or two of actual content, but only Daniel Day-Lewis used the forum properly. It's a pity that he and Affleck couldn't set an example at the beginning of the ceremony.

[Jim3k]

I found Seth MacFarlane to be excellent. His persona added a lot of fun to the show.

In addition, who knew that Daniel Day-Lewis had a sense of humor and could play funsy with Meryl Streep. The "we swapped" line was the best of the night--meant last year he had to give to Streep his role of Margaret Thatcher and she swapped to give him her role as Lincoln.

Finally, a show with both Barbra Streisand and Shirley Bassey singing their best movie songs (The Way We Were and Goldfinger, respectively) is an automatic winner. Bassey's pipes at 75 are still pretty darn good and Streisand never gets old. (She's 70.)

[allenmurray]

I rarely watch awards shows - I simply don't like them. But my wife loves the Oscars, so I decided to try to watch this one with her. After 25 minutes I decided this was one of the most insipid thing I had ever watched. I left the room. I thought the McFarlane-Shatner schtick was beyond stupid.

[JasonEvans]

The grave mistake made by the producers was sooo many musical numbers that went on too long. No reason to have Zeta-Jones, Bassey, Adele, Streisand, Hudson, and others do the full versions of their songs -- do a trimmed down 1 1/2 minute version. even the ones that were wonderful simply went on too long. Seeing as most of them has nothing to do with the awards, it was a double sin. It made the thing interminably long.

Of course, the only good part about the show being long was that Seth kept on cracking jokes about it ("Quvenzhané Wallis was 9 when this show started..." cracked me up). I thought Seth was pretty good. "Boobies" was funny and felt very "Family Guy." I loved when he looked at the prompter and said, "I thought we took this one out..." and then read a lousy joke. I am fairly sure that was ad-libbed and real; it certainly made me laugh.

I 110% agree on the speeches being uninteresting and uninspiring. Most of the great moments in Oscar history are from surprising speeches, from Sally Field's "you like me, you really, really like me" to Roberto Benigni's over-the-top joy to Cuba Gooding Jr proving that "Show Me The Money!!" was not the most excited he could be. This is your 45 seconds to show the world your real personality. To waste it with a list of names no one really cares about is a shame. Thank those people in a heartfelt email to everyone you have ever known. But, use this moment for something more. Other than DDL, the best moment last night was Jennifer Lawrence tripping over her dress (and Ben Affleck almost coming to her rescue).

By the way, do you all know the person who has been named more than any other in acceptance speeches? This person has been thanked more often than GOD!

Spoiler!

The answer is Harvey Weinstein, with 12 thank yous over the past 50 years... I heard him named at least once last night as well

-Jason "a post on the winners in a moment..." Evans

[rthomas]

I have to agree with Shirley Bassey. She was amazing. Her singing Goldfinger made me want to watch that movie again for the umpteenth million time INSTEAD of the Oscars.

[JasonEvans]

In terms of the winners, I thought last night was a fascinating exercise in something we almost never see... the lack of a dominant film. Think about how spread around the major awards were!

Argo - Best Pic and Best Screenplay
Lincoln - Best Actor
Silver Linings - Best Actress
Life of Pi - Best Director (and a slew of technical awards)
Les Mis - Best Supporting Actress
Django - Best Supporting Actor and Best Screenplay
Amour - Best Foreign Language Film

Of the 9 films nominated for Best Picture, only Beasts (which was just thrilled to be nominated in 3 major categories) and Zero Dark Thirty (which was probably stung by controversy over the torture scenes) failed to win a major award. There was no dominant film, which rarely happens.

And the crazy part about it is... that is just what most everyone was predicting. On twitter, I posted predictions in 13 categories. I got 10 of them right (missed on Sup Actor for Tommy Lee Jones, Screenplay for Zero Dark Thirty, and Animated Film for Paranorman). I think that's a pretty solid percentage but I was hardly picking longshots. It was a night where the Oscars honored so much of what was great in film last year. I liked it.

-Jason "fun night to love movies" Evans

[duke74]

By the way, do you all know the person who has been named more than any other in acceptance speeches? This person has been thanked more often than GOD!

Spoiler!

The answer is Harvey Weinstein, with 12 thank yous over the past 50 years... I heard him named at least once last night as well

-Jason "a post on the winners in a moment..." Evans

And in at least one joke.

Maybe I am a pill (that CPA-thing), but I thought some of Seth's jokes were silly and bordering on mean. I guess he has to balance reverence and irreverence...

The most offensive to me (yeah, call me sensitive about this...sorry) was Ted and Wahlberg. Just what we needed, an anti-semitic bear styling stereotypical canards. The twitterverse I follow also lit up over that. What was next, a reading of the "Protocol of the Elders of Zion?" Followed by how Jews control the media? Geesh. (If I veered into PP, I apologize...was not meant.)

[Mal]

I thought Macfarlane was a breath of fresh air. It was a great production choice to have him speak into the commercial breaks, instead of the voice of God thing they usually do. He was, as brevity pointed out, actually a host. His somewhat outsider, somewhat unknown-ness, also allowed him to play that role, rather than be a figurehead put up to attract viewers, or a traditional standup comedian saddled with outsized expectations to make us crack up every time he opened his mouth. He reminded me at times of Bob Hope. I think, despite the acerbic edge and irreverence, he actually likes Hollywood and the movies, and it showed. My impression, having not actually seen/heard the guy outside of the context of the Family Guy universe, was that that work isn't the definition of him as a person, but rather just the facet of his personality and creativity that's become public. The guy can actually sing, too.

Agreed with some others that the gobs of music, while an interesting choice for a theme, was perhaps a little much. Mainly, the inclusion of the Chicago and Dreamgirls stuff. I don't have a problem with live performances of the nominated songs (and if you're going to show them, I disagree with JE - putting on 90 seconds is a disservice to the music). But if you're going to make a big deal about movie musicals with some kind of tribute, you can't use it to showcase stuff from less than a decade ago, leading into one of the current nominees. No Grease? Travolta was in the house. Where was West Side Story? Or any number of others that would have been more appropriate, less instant nostalgia, choices.

I also don't like Bond movies at all, so that was a complete waste of three minutes, as far as I was concerned. Admittedly, the woman singing Goldfinger was great, however.

Other quick thoughts: Good on Christoph Walz, but his win sucked a ton of energy out of the room. I think everyone came in expecting to give a teary, five minute ovation to DeNiro. Daniel Day-Lewis was hilarious. Affleck was so happy it was hard not to feel good for him. I laughed at Grant Henslov's line about "I know what you're thinking: that's the best looking trio of producers ever." Who knew Clooney could get onstage and not say anything? Was Russell Crowe that bad of a singer onscreen, too? How many times do we think Anne Hathaway practiced her fake spontaneous opening line to her speech?

[rthomas]

How many times do we think Anne Hathaway practiced her fake spontaneous opening line to her speech?

I think she was just trying to point out the obvious.

[tommy]

Finally, the speeches. I'm not really sure why winners just list off a bunch of names of industry executives instead of, you know, making a speech. (Even Stifler and Tarantino, who are in the business of writing, disappointed.)

Tarantino seemed obviously high on something, or more than a little drunk. And the guy can't manage to keep his top shirt button buttoned and his tie tied properly? Even for the Oscars? What event would be significant enough to get him to present himself like a professional? To me he came off like an immature slob and a jerk, no matter how good his movie might have been.

[Indoor66]

Tarantino seemed obviously high on something, or more than a little drunk. And the guy can't manage to keep his top shirt button buttoned and his tie tied properly? Even for the Oscars? What event would be significant enough to get him to present himself like a professional? To me he came off like an immature slob and a jerk, no matter how good his movie might have been.

Sounds like he probably fit right in with the whole crowd.

[Duvall]

Tarantino seemed obviously high on something, or more than a little drunk. And the guy can't manage to keep his top shirt button buttoned and his tie tied properly? Even for the Oscars? What event would be significant enough to get him to present himself like a professional? To me he came off like an immature slob and a jerk, no matter how good his movie might have been.

It takes a lot more than an unbuttoned shirt to come across as an immature slob on a night hosted by Seth MacFarlane.

[duke74]

FWIW, the NY Post's take on Seth's performance:

http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesix/seth...=SFnewyorkpost