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  1. #1
    Join Date
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    MBB: Duke at Florida State Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

    Duke travels south to take on the Florida State Seminoles on Saturday at 2 pm EST. TV coverage is being provided by ESPN. It is time to build off the Wake Forest victory and even out our conference road record at 2-2.

    Note to team: guard Snaer at the 3 PT Line.
    Bob Green

  2. #2
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    FSU is neither good offensively (#85 in Pomeroy) nor are they good defensively (#119!) this year. They've lost to South Alabama at home, Mercer at home, and at Auburn. They scored just 36 at UVa and just 47 home against UF and 47 at Miami. They are, by no stretch of the imagination, a good team this year.

    They don't have the rebounding and shotblocking presence inside that they've had in previous years. They sorely miss the size and talent that James, Alabi, Singleton provided, and the depth of decent size that Gibson, Kreft, and Reid provided.
    They do have 3 7-footers (Turpin, Bojanovsky, and Ojo). But those guys combine to average about 28 mpg, and average nearly as many fouls (4) as rebounds (5.3) or points (5), and as many turnovers (1.8) as blocks (2.2). So it's a bunch of tall stiffs that bring very little to the table.

    The options to go smaller may be limited if Shannon (a 6'8", 240 PF, and the only true alternative at C) can't play. Their starting PF White is a lot like Jefferson (lanky and active) but a better shooter. Shannon is a better version of Hairston, but as noted by Olympic Fan he may not play. The only other remaining big is Gilchrist, who hasn't shown anything to suggest he's ready for ACC action. And none of these should be able to handle Mason inside.

    In the backcourt, they are long and athletic, and can shoot. But they don't have a competent ballhandler that can stabilize the offense like Kitchen and Loucks provided. So their offense is very disjointed. They'll commit a lot of mindnumbing turnovers. Then, at times (though not often enough), they'll rain 3s.

    In short, this is not the FSU team of recent memory. They are young, (for the most part) small, and undisciplined. There is some talent there, but it's very green and very inconsistent.

  3. #3
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    FSU always plays us tough down there, would not be surprised to see a bad result. I assume we will be favored on Vegas but would not consider a loss here an upset.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    FSU always plays us tough down there, would not be surprised to see a bad result. I assume we will be favored on Vegas but would not consider a loss here an upset.
    A loss would be a major upset, and a major disappointment for a team that still has an outside shot at winning the conference, provided that we get Ryan back at some point. The Vegas line is likely to be in the high single digits. CDu's description of the team is spot on. I think their only chance of beating us is to shoot a lot of 3's and hope they make >40% of them. I would imagine running them off the 3 point line will be a big part of the defensive game plan.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by cptnflash View Post
    A loss would be a major upset, and a major disappointment for a team that still has an outside shot at winning the conference, provided that we get Ryan back at some point. The Vegas line is likely to be in the high single digits. CDu's description of the team is spot on. I think their only chance of beating us is to shoot a lot of 3's and hope they make >40% of them. I would imagine running them off the 3 point line will be a big part of the defensive game plan.
    We are 1-2 in the conference on the road. I would be disappointed to lose, but to say that it would be a "major upset" does not necessarily comport with history. This is a tough game in the best of circumstances.

    I agree with your enthusiasm. I disagree that a win is expected.

    And I agree on the defense, especially Snaer. We need to cover him from the time he leaves the dorm room.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    We are 1-2 in the conference on the road. I would be disappointed to lose, but to say that it would be a "major upset" does not necessarily comport with history.
    Facts? Sir, how dare you bring facts onto a message board. That's practically unheard of around these parts!
    Bob Green

  7. #7
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    We are 1-2 in the conference on the road.
    Florida State is 2-2 against the Atlantic Sun and Sun Belt Conferences at home this year. They are what they are.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Florida State is 2-2 against the Atlantic Sun and Sun Belt Conferences at home this year. They are what they are.
    I am sure the Seminoles had those games circled on the calendar.

    I don't want to be the negative nelly, not my style. But this is a really difficult game, I disagree with those who think we are "should win" favorites here. We need to play a hell of a lot better than our past road games to win.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Florida State is 2-2 against the Atlantic Sun and Sun Belt Conferences at home this year. They are what they are.
    a team that plays to the level of their competition. the Criminoles will be jacked and give it their best shot. after the struggle against wake i don't believe any road game is a gimmie for this team.

  10. #10
    What is the spread? What is Pomeroy predicting?

    The SRS at sports-reference has Duke at 15.4 points better than FSU; Sagarin as 12 points better. But then factor in 3 points for FSU at home ... and those margins of being better were built w/ RK.

    If FSU is offensively-challenged, let's see Duke's D really step up and grind out a victory, whether our shooting posts or not.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    What is the spread? What is Pomeroy predicting?

    The SRS at sports-reference has Duke at 15.4 points better than FSU; Sagarin as 12 points better. But then factor in 3 points for FSU at home ... and those margins of being better were built w/ RK.

    If FSU is offensively-challenged, let's see Duke's D really step up and grind out a victory, whether our shooting posts or not.
    Pomeroy is Duke 79, FSU 67.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by CLW View Post
    a team that plays to the level of their competition. the Criminoles will be jacked and give it their best shot. after the struggle against wake i don't believe any road game is a gimmie for this team.
    I wouldn't say that FSU plays to their level of competition. They had a home game against their arch-rival (UF) and got blown out 72-47. They had a road game against their other arch-rival (Miami) and got blown out 71-47. They lost at home to a not-very-good UNC team. So I wouldn't say they are a team that plays to the level of their competition.

    Now, that doesn't mean they won't play the game of their lives against us. But I'd actually argue that Wake is playing as well or better right now than FSU. They have more impressive wins than anything FSU has to offer (UVa and NC State vs BYU).

    In other words, don't let the name on the jerseys (and the recent history for each) cloud your judgement. I'd look at this FSU team as no better than the Wake Forest team we just played.

    Could FSU sneak up and beat us with an out-of-body-experience type of game? Sure. But we should view such a loss the same way we would have viewed a loss to Wake.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I don't want to be the negative nelly, not my style. But this is a really difficult game, I disagree with those who think we are "should win" favorites here. We need to play a hell of a lot better than our past road games to win.
    Count me as one of those. Duke "should win" this game. I'm pretty sure the coaches and the team will go into the game expecting to play hard and win it. I think the NCSU, Miami and Wake games have erased any misconceptions about any easy road games this season. We've seen what Duke is capable of - good and bad. We've seen what FSU is capable of - some good, mostly bad. Duke is the better team. Road game or not, Duke should win. Will they? I certainly hope so. It's understandable to be pessimistic given the Miami disaster, but I don't think the NCSU loss or close WF win were particularly "bad" games on Duke's part. (I actually think a similar performance to the NCSU game might be enough to win against FSU)
    There's optomism, pessimism and the reality somewhere in between - and it just seems to me to suggest that Duke should be expected to win this game. That's what championship caliber teams want, after all. (And for the sake of this argument, I'm just talking ACC championship - which I think we all should agree is one of Duke's goals for this season.)

  14. #14
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    Agree that we should expect to win. But we have to also expect FSU to play their best. And we have to bring our best. If we bring our best, and nothing truly bizarre happens (like our guards shoot 1 for 29), then we should win.

    Any reason to change the starting line-up? Probably Quinn-Seth-Rasheed-Amile-Mason, same as last two games. Possible that Josh starts over Amile.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Fish80 View Post
    Any reason to change the starting line-up? Probably Quinn-Seth-Rasheed-Amile-Mason, same as last two games. Possible that Josh starts over Amile.
    I appreciate K's frankness in the Wake post-presser, when he said, twice, for emphasis, that in the first half of the Wake games, Josh played "very poorly." He then went on to note that Josh over time has also built up "equity, so we put him back in." We all know how Josh made 2 key plays near the end, and, as K noted, Josh absolutely has to make the hustle plays: "... that's what he has to do. He has to do that."

    I'll guess that neither Amile nor Josh will care all that much who starts, and that both know how they must contribute for Duke to win on Sat and beyond. Until Ryan returns [I realize there's an optimistic assumption there...], it's possible Amile will start some, and Josh some. Also likely if Duke keeps winning with Amile starting, no change.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fish80 View Post
    Agree that we should expect to win. But we have to also expect FSU to play their best. And we have to bring our best. If we bring our best, and nothing truly bizarre happens (like our guards shoot 1 for 29), then we should win.
    Totally agree with this. As I implied a bit above, I think folks are a bit guilty of seeing "FSU" on the schedule and thinking this is a similar FSU team to year's past. It's not. Defensively, there is just no comparison. Since 2009, here are FSU's defensive rankings (per Pomeroy):

    2009: #12
    2010: #1
    2011: #1
    2012: #15
    2013: #121

    We could certainly lose this game (just like we could lose any ACC game). But unlike recent FSU teams, this FSU team simply isn't good enough to beat us without us helping them out... a lot. We should win. We'll have to play hard to do so, but we should win.

    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    I appreciate K's frankness in the Wake post-presser, when he said, twice, for emphasis, that in the first half of the Wake games, Josh played "very poorly." He then went on to note that Josh over time has also built up "equity, so we put him back in." We all know how Josh made 2 key plays near the end, and, as K noted, Josh absolutely has to make the hustle plays: "... that's what he has to do. He has to do that."

    I'll guess that neither Amile nor Josh will care all that much who starts, and that both know how they must contribute for Duke to win on Sat and beyond. Until Ryan returns [I realize there's an optimistic assumption there...], it's possible Amile will start some, and Josh some. Also likely if Duke keeps winning with Amile starting, no change.
    I hadn't heard Coach K's comments, but it's nice to see that he was honest about that assessment. It definitely seemed like Hairston was being punished when Murphy came in at PF instead of him midway through the first half. It also appears that maybe he got the message late in the game.

    There's clearly a difference in what Jefferson can bring to the table and what Hairston can bring. Jefferson had a rough night against Wake. In that scenario, it is critical that Hairston be a positive presence as a backup. When Jefferson is playing well and racking up the rebounds and points, it's less critical. But Hairston's value is effort and energy, and he has to bring that every time out.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Fish80 View Post
    If we bring our best, and nothing truly bizarre happens (like our guards shoot 1 for 29), then we should win
    The bizarre happening I would consciously attempt if I were FSU is using my weakness (the inside game) to advantage. Although clearly inferior in the front court, they have lots of size and strength there. I would continue the ACC trend of playing Duke very physically inside and replicate Wake's plan of making Mason earn his points from the FT line (hoping Mason doesn't replicate his Wake FT%). FSU has fouls to give inside. It is documented that refs have a tendency toward evening out the number of fouls called across teams while favorableness is more likely to be given to the home team rather than visitor. If the reffing follows this pattern by calling fouls on Mason instead of our perimeter, this strategy would work well to FSU's favor. The most benefit may be on the offensive end, as we saw in the Wake game.
    After all, how many times can Snaer be the face on the 'bizarre card'?!

  18. #18

    chances

    Om response to the earlier question about Pomeroy's projection, I was looking at his site and it struck me that he rates the Duke at FSU game as the fifth toughest remaining game. Surprising (to me at least) he sees Duke's toughest remaining game at Virginia. Here's his ranking of Duke's remaining 11 regular season games (in order of difficulty):

    1. at Virginia 67 percent
    2. at North Carolina 70 percent
    3. Miami 74 percent
    4. at Maryland 76 percent
    5. at FSU 84 percent
    6. NC State 87 percent
    7. North Carolina 88 percent
    8. at Boston College 89 percent
    9. at Virginia Tech 92 percent
    10. Boston College 96 percent
    11. Virginia Tech 97 percent

    While Duke is favored in every remaining game (at the moment), his overall projection is 27-4 (14-4) ... so he's projecting that Duke loses two more games.

    Frankly, I think those projections are questionable -- are they based on season long performance -- which includes 15 games with Kelly? If Kelly were healthy and back in the rotation, I'd love Duke's chances of running the table. Without him ... well, let's say, I'd take 27-4 (14-4) as it now stands.

  19. #19

    K - whimsical, angry, incisive

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I hadn't heard Coach K's comments, but it's nice to see that he was honest about that assessment.
    Check out Home Page, "One We Missed," for link to Dan Collins's column which includes [scroll down] a transcript of the presser.

    And btw, Collins's honest assessment of K's "cantankerous brilliance" might be worthy of a thread all its own -- a long, contentious, possibly cantankerous one. I have no trouble believing Collins's description of the Wake post-presser as "far and away the most contentious post-game of the season." To be clear, Collins's overall take on K may be fairly gleaned from the title of the article [no matter who wrote the title]: "Master at Work."

    I much prefer the whimsical-if-sarcastic Master to the chip-on-shoulder/suffer-no-scribe-fools-and-nobocy-else-for-that-matter Master. Idk, maybe Ryan's injury has wound him up.

    Collins suggests that readers notice things. Here's a sentence I noticed, both for its critique of angry-K and for its praise of incisive-K: "But notice also, that once I'd given up on getting any consideration or cooperation, Krzyzewski gave me a really good answer. Notice that was the case after several other questions met his disapproval."

  20. #20

    Clear statement

    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    Check out Home Page, "One We Missed," for link to Dan Collins's column which includes [scroll down] a transcript of the presser.

    And btw, Collins's honest assessment of K's "cantankerous brilliance" might be worthy of a thread all its own -- a long, contentious, possibly cantankerous one. I have no trouble believing Collins's description of the Wake post-presser as "far and away the most contentious post-game of the season." To be clear, Collins's overall take on K may be fairly gleaned from the title of the article [no matter who wrote the title]: "Master at Work."

    I much prefer the whimsical-if-sarcastic Master to the chip-on-shoulder/suffer-no-scribe-fools-and-nobocy-else-for-that-matter Master. Idk, maybe Ryan's injury has wound him up.

    Collins suggests that readers notice things. Here's a sentence I noticed, both for its critique of angry-K and for its praise of incisive-K: "But notice also, that once I'd given up on getting any consideration or cooperation, Krzyzewski gave me a really good answer. Notice that was the case after several other questions met his disapproval."
    Coach K clearly stated that the Wake game plan was to try to get Mason into foul trouble and that Mason knew it and was avoiding contact to the extend that he could. He picked up offensive fouls which were not the result of him playing tough defense inside. I have little doubt that FSU will also pursue a similar strategy. Perhaps coach K will use a combination of Amile, Marshall and Josh to challenge the inside games of FSU and let Mason have to face a little less pressure. It might result in better defense overall as we won't be as concerned about picking up fouls on our three other inside players.

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