Duke NCAA-T performance by time period

[freshmanjs]

Very curious what people think...hmm tried to add a poll but didn't work.

[freshmanjs]

a poll

[davekay1971]

I'll bite, although I'm not sure how this thread is necessary given the similar thread currently discussing the same topic...

First, the ground rules...Are we discussing the K years only? Or are we going further back. Verga had the flu, otherwise we'd have been the bad guys in 1966, btw.

The K years.

Up to 1986 - building. Woo hoo, we don't suck anymore!

1986-1994 - breaking it down...
1986 - wow, that was amazing! Darn that Ellison guy.
1987 - Indiana is really good, so that's ok
1988 - back to the final four, woo hop
1989 - bridesmaids again. But I'm sure K will break through one day. I hope.
1990 - ouch.
1991 - Oh my God! Oh my God! Oh my God! Oh my God!
1992 - Oh my God! Oh my God! Oh my God! Oh my God!
1993 - We didn't make the final four?! That SUCKS!
1994 - I had no idea that even Grant Hill could carry a team like that. Almost won it. Oh well, we'll be back next year.

1995-2004
1995 - I can't believe how bad that sucked
1996 - Well, we made it back. Still, UNC is really alot better than us right now.
1997 - Think we'll ever really make it back. I can see us improving, but still...
1998 - How the heck did we blow that lead? But, man, have you IMAGINE how good we're going to be next year?
1999 - Wow. We were so good. Wait, WHO'S going pro?! All of them?!
2000 - I think we really are back.
2001 - Oh my God! Oh my God! Oh my God! Oh my God!
2002 - Jared Jeffries? Are you freaking kidding me? And can Jason Williams make a freakin free throw?
2003 - Ok, not too bad. We'll be back.
2004 - Can we put the Duke-gets-all-the-calls bs to rest already? Billy Packer? Jerk.

2005-now
2005 - Ok, that happens, we get JJ and Shelden back next year. We're going to be good.
2006 - We had JJ and Shelden back. I thought we'd do better. Maybe K played JJ too many minutes during the season. He should play the bench more
2007 - We're just not as good as we used to be.
2008 - Waaaaah! I'm a senior and I've never seen Duke in a final four! Waaaaaah! My parents paid all this money and we didn't go to a final four!
2009 - UNC has passed us. By the way, did Tyler Hansbrough really take Swahili classes? Why would he take Swahili classes?
2010 - Oh my God! Oh my God! Oh my God! Oh my God!
2011 - Drat. If only Kyrie hadn't broken his foot. I swear we could have won back-to-back.
2012 - Dude, that sucked.

There, those are some thoughts on Duke's NCAAT performance by time period. Kind of a historical look at the DBR response to the last game of the season, if you will.

[Old Drum]

My non-Dukie friend once tried to make the case to me that "Coach K's teams are always overrated going into the tournament and underperform their seeding." I spent the next day compiling the data to prove him wrong.

Below shows the percentage of time, since 1985, Duke has reached each round of the tournament when seeded at a particular level. The numbers are followed by those of the rest of the field (e.g. the percentage of time each 1 seed, other than Duke, reached the Elite 8, Final Four, etc.). I think the generaly takeaway is we outperform our peers, especially in the tournament's late stages. There is, however, a dropoff starting in 2002 - when we started reaching the Elite 8 less often.

As a 1 seed

Round of 32: Duke 100%. The rest of the 1 seeds 100%.
Sweet 16: Duke 100%. The rest of the 1 seeds 85%.
Elite 8: Duke 58%. The rest of the 1 seeds 72%.
Final Four: Duke 50%. The rest of the 1 seeds 42%.
Finals: Duke 42%. The rest of the 1 seeds 22%.
Champs: Duke 25%. The rest of the 1 seeds 14%.

As a 2 seed

Round of 32: Duke 88%. The rest of the 2 seeds 97%.
Sweet 16: Duke 63%. The rest of the 2 seeds 64%.
Elite 8: Duke 50%. The rest of the 2 seeds 46%.
Final Four: Duke 50%. The rest of the 2 seeds 19%.
Finals: Duke 25%. The rest of the 2 seeds 9%.
Champs: Duke 13%. The rest of the 2 seeds 3%.

As a 3 seed

Round of 32: Duke 100%. The rest of the 3 seeds 85%.
Sweet 16: Duke 50%. The rest of the 3 seeds 51%.
Elite 8: Duke 25%. The rest of the 3 seeds 25%.
Final Four: Duke 25%. The rest of the 3 seeds 13%.
Finals: Duke 25%. The rest of the 3 seeds 8%.
Champs: Duke 0%. The rest of the 3 seeds 4%.

The other numbers are less interesting, because Duke has rarely been below a 3 seed.

Also, here is a chart showing Duke's tournament results since 1985:

Year NCAAs Seed Rndof32 Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Finals Champs
1985 X 3 X
1986 X 1 X X X X X
1987 X 5 X X
1988 X 2 X X X X
1989 X 2 X X X X
1990 X 3 X X X X X
1991 X 2 X X X X X X
1992 X 1 X X X X X X
1993 X 3 X
1994 X 2 X X X X X
1995 NO n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
1996 X 8
1997 X 2 X
1998 X 1 X X X
1999 X 1 X X X X X
2000 X 1 X X
2001 X 1 X X X X X X
2002 X 1 X X
2003 X 3 X X
2004 X 1 X X X X
2005 X 1 X X
2006 X 1 X X
2007 X 6
2008 X 2 X
2009 X 2 X X
2010 X 1 X X X X X X
2011 X 1 X X
2012 X 2

[Wander]

2008 - Waaaaah! I'm a senior and I've never seen Duke in a final four! Waaaaaah! My parents paid all this money and we didn't go to a final four!

Hahaha. Tangential and not the nicest thing in the world, but to quote a friend of mine, "I never want to lose to UNC, but the tools in Tent 1 not seeing us beat UNC at home in four years is a decent consolation prize to us not beating UNC at home in four years."

[Newton_14]

Very curious what people think...hmm tried to add a poll but didn't work.

PM me with a note on how you want the poll set up and I will do it for you.

[freshmanjs]

PM me with a note on how you want the poll set up and I will do it for you.

thanks. i managed to start the poll in another thread so maybe you can merge them.