MBB: Duke vs. Maryland (Jan 26, 2013) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[Fish80]

... No one's become the smartest person in the room yet.

Ipso facto we are all equally dumb.

[Duvall]

Tyler, Rasheed, Amile, and Mason bring the most fight. With those 4, we need some more offense and good passing. Alex. That's your starting five tomorrow.

Put aside for a moment trying to measure "fight" - what makes you think Murphy brings more offense and good passing? His next assist will be the first of his career.

[Duvall]

Right now, inserting Murphy into the starting rotation is worth a try. Against NSCU, GT, and The U, our regular startin lineup has turned up terrible results.

Which regular starting lineup?

[Fish80]

Party at Fish's house!! Don't forget to stop by the bank today, Fish. If you are correct, your first round of pitchforks will be on me!

Awesome, baby! If the board is a good barameter, Alex is starting tomorrow. And that means Kedsy is buying!

[Bob Green]

Which regular starting lineup?

Shame on you, Duvall. Using facts on a message board is like bringing a gun to a knife fight.

[MCFinARL]

Here is the Weekend Preview from ACCSports.com:

http://www.accsports.com/teams/nc-st...iew-jan-25.php



The prediction is 85-57 for the good guys.

May it be so. But this prediction seems wildly optimistic (from a Duke perspective, of course) to me. Granted Maryland is offensively challenged, their defense is strong and Duke is still trying to put together a solid Ryan-less offense. So I don't know about a 28 point margin.

[Fish80]

Put aside for a moment trying to measure "fight" - what makes you think Murphy brings more offense and good passing? His next assist will be the first of his career.

Dude, why so harsh on Murphy? He can pass. From GoDuke.com:


International Basketball
Played for the U-20 Finnish National Team in the 2012 FIBA U-20 World Championships
Finished as the team's leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker ... averaged 17.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.1 steals per game

High School
Averaged 21.0 points, 7.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game in 2011

[Kedsy]

Similarly, we’ve seen Rasheed and Quinn benched before. Thus, K is not beneath diminishing the role of a certain skillset. I’m trying to think as if no position is safe (though I’m having trouble even imagining a system where Mason’s time is limited).

Yes, but I think it's a lot harder to bench Seth with Ryan already out than it was to bench Quinn in the first couple games of the year.

In my mind, though, an important part of such a style would be that the drives do not have to be finished. If Quinn and Rasheed were more mature, perhaps they’d see the value of driving, stretching, and cutting up the defense even if the drive doesn’t end in a shot...plays don't always have to be started from the top of the arc. Seth, especially in the Kentucky game IIRC, has displayed this tactic well – driving through the defense and back out to create space, confusion, and mismatches. Incorporating this part of driving allows for more fluidity and options as opposed to, as I see it, a fairly rigid, limited one-on-one structure created when we attempt a dribble-drive offense presently.

I completely agree. The main point of this sort of offense would be to open things up for passing to Mason, Amile, or Seth, and only attempting to finish if the defense backs off.

Hmmm. I'll take those five. Propose your starting five, and I'll take mine against yours. Whoever gets closer (most out of five) wins a brew?

I'll go with Quinn, Seth, Rasheed, Amile, and Mason, essentially giving me Quinn and Seth against Tyler and Alex.

I like British Ales and American microbrews. Not sure how you'll get it in the mail, though.

[Duvall]

Dude, why so harsh on Murphy? He can pass. From GoDuke.com:


International Basketball
Played for the U-20 Finnish National Team in the 2012 FIBA U-20 World Championships
Finished as the team's leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker ... averaged 17.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.1 steals per game

High School
Averaged 21.0 points, 7.2 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game in 2011

Didn't Cook average some absurd number of assists in a FIBA tournament, like 12-13 a game?

Anyway, the point is that Murphy has yet to show that he can provide efficient scoring or create scoring for others against college competition. Which is fine for a freshman providing depth off the bench, but it isn't an argument for starting him.

[devildeac]

Here is the Weekend Preview from ACCSports.com:

http://www.accsports.com/teams/nc-st...iew-jan-25.php



The prediction is 85-57 for the good guys.

Somehow, I am tempted and might be willing to take those points. Bomber of a Southern Tier beverage at the first Brunchgate this FB season?

[superdave]

A bunch of lineup tweaks seems unlikely. If there is anything changed, I'd bet Coach K pushes the pace. Every last guy on our roster can run the floor pretty well. Run teams to do death and use Rasheed/Amile/Alex/Tyler to rotate through a two-man full-court press assignment and just hound ball handlers for 40 minutes.

Mason is pretty awesome in the open court. Rasheed, Seth, Tyler and Quinn can all push the ball by dribble on the break. Amile and Alex should be strong finishers.


Super "I think I always argue we should run, press, trap more for some reason" Dave

[bedeviled]

Yes, but I think it's a lot harder to bench Seth with Ryan already out...

I also think it doesn't serve a message of positive benefit. Some argue that K simply plays whoever will give the best chance of a win and one could argue that he may bench Seth to reward someone who hustled more against Miami. However, I don't think benching (or not starting) Seth would significantly impact those things in a positive way. On the contrary, I think it would be negative in terms of our experience, confidence, and would unnecessarily call attention to Seth's Miami performance (and I DO think K always has a kid's future in mind). So, even if he doesn't get as many minutes, I will be a bit surprised if he doesn't start.

[bedeviled]

"I think I always argue we should run, press, trap more for some reason"

As do I, as do I. While it may happen as you say, I am quite fearful of this. Given our let-down in discipline and the way NCSU and Miami dominated transition, I don't think out young guys have the defensive acumen to engage in an up-and-down point-war. (Although, if we actually make our shots, our transition defense is probably much better than recently displayed).

[devildeac]

Yes, but I think it's a lot harder to bench Seth with Ryan already out than it was to bench Quinn in the first couple games of the year.



I completely agree. The main point of this sort of offense would be to open things up for passing to Mason, Amile, or Seth, and only attempting to finish if the defense backs off.



I'll go with Quinn, Seth, Rasheed, Amile, and Mason, essentially giving me Quinn and Seth against Tyler and Alex.

I like British Ales and American microbrews. Not sure how you'll get it in the mail, though.

This should be the first click for the winner of this bet:

http://www.beermonthclub.com/

I'm just gonna collect mine personally from Bob Green on the point spread at the first FB tailgate this season.

[Fish80]

. . . I'll go with Quinn, Seth, Rasheed, Amile, and Mason, essentially giving me Quinn and Seth against Tyler and Alex.

I like British Ales and American microbrews. Not sure how you'll get it in the mail, though.

New Castle Brown Ale is always a good choice. Or DogFishHead Indian Brown Ale. And Guiness, of course. You can always just send me cash, that's almost as good as money.

[-bdbd]

Here are a few links from the MD side looking at this game...

Game preview focusing on MD's road woes (interesting that most fan comments at the end seem to have low expectations for tomorrow):
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...lve-road-woes/

Their all-black uniforms for Sat:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...forms-vs-duke/

Maryland has Point Guard issues:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports...d5b_story.html

MD's Jake "The Hair" Layman talks about the game and their prep:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-and-his-hair/

[Bob Green]

Somehow, I am tempted and might be willing to take those points. Bomber of a Southern Tier beverage at the first Brunchgate this FB season?

To be fair to myself, I didn't make the prediction, I only advertised it. But in the spirit of fair play, I'll wager a Bomber as long as you promise to let me help drink it come FB season.

[gumbomoop]

Al Featherston's comments from his front page story might be a good way to transit from Miami to Md.

"Frankly, until we see Duke play a few more games, it’s impossible to evaluate the depth of the troubles that Wednesday night’s game revealed... The next few weeks are going to be tough … the hopes for a championship season depend either on Krzyzewski finding a miraculous solution to the current problems or for Kelly to return to action. Until we see what happens, we can’t really start to put the Miami defeat into any kind of perspective."

Looking to "a few more games" and "see[ing] what happens," Newton_14 and SoCalDukeFan in the post-Miami thread laid out K's problem for the intermediate term, maybe next 2+ weeks, next 5 games [Md, @Wake, @FSU, NCSt, @BC], I assume their straightforward formulation might summarize an overwhelming consensus on EK.

Given the unknown of when or if Kelly comes back, K is caught between a rock and hard place trying to determine whether or not to make drastic changes on the assumption we don't get Ryan back, or small tweaks to try to help us get by until Ryan returns.

The question going forward is how does K and staff adjust or do we just muddle through until Ryan gets back.

Most of this thread has been devoted to a civil debate re how K might shake up things by (1) starting, well, someone other than Seth, and (2) giving more PT inside to someone other than Josh, i.e., Alex or Amile, or maybe Marshall. This is a not unreasonable debate, for the unpopular Seth Greenberg has, as tele notes, also straightforwardly stated Duke's key post-Kelly problem:

Seth Greenburg on the espn halftime report was positively gleeful telling how to stop Duke by taking Curry's legs out from under him (no mention of his injury of course) and also by pushing Mason off the block.

I've no clue as to whether K will break out drastic changes - start Murphy, and/or Thornton, and/or Marshall? full-court press? twin towers? Sulaimon at PG? - or stick with tweaking - getting Mason the ball lower on the blocks? a few more sets that are intended to get Cook, Sulaimon, Murphy into the lane for runners, tear-drops, lay-ups? more screens to get Curry shots without his being beat up trying to get open?

I'll be looking for any and all of these, and maybe even others suggested as possibles in this thread. Most of all, I'll be looking at Mason. Here are some constructively critical comments on Mason's problems v, Miami:

Mason ... looks nothing like the player from the first few weeks of the year... Mason simply did not display the ability to get off very many quality, in rhythm shots. He appears to be shying away from contact rather than taking the ball up and through his man like he was earlier in the year. He's way too dependent on the jump hook -- it appears to be the only move he has any confidence in now. He's got to diversify with a drop step or a hook over the other shoulder. When he gets it real close in, he has to go up strong and dunk it. He's not only taller or as tall as every opponent he faces, but he also can outjump all of them. They should not be blocking his shot or deterring him from going up. And the free throw shooting is essentially the same as it was last year. The early season momentum appears to be gone there too.

I hate to say it folks, but let's just drop all the National Player of the Year talk for Mason. He's clearly out of that conversation, and he should be. Just worry about the next game, that's all.

Mason could really help himself by being more aggressive with establishing himself lower on the block. At time he gets pushed out farther than his comfort zone. When that happens and he does get the ball, he has to dribble to back his man down, often with less than wonderful results.

Notice when he gets the ball low, his options open up. He effectively uses an up and under move that is nearly impossible to stop without weak side help. His hook shot is much more effective from 4-6 feet than it is from >6 feet (no stats to back this up, but should be obvious to even the casual observer of Mason).

Mason can be the MAN, but he needs to fight hard to get low on the blocks. I read where a coach once said (my have been K, not sure) that all you need to do is move a man about a foot or two outside of their comfort zone to greatly reduce their effectiveness. I think this happens to Mason more than he or the coaching staff would like.

The next 15 days incorporate all games up to UNC in CIS. [It's still strange, and sort of irritating, that Duke plays both Wake and NCSt twice before playing UNC the first time.] I don't expect, over the next 5 games, that K will make drastic changes where Mason is concerned. I cannot imagine - and as best I can recall no one has suggested - Mason not starting. Also hard to imagine - though here maybe a couple of posters have imagined - another drastic change re Mason: playing him, for more than a minute, at the 4. I don't see it, for as oldnavy and tommy have noted, most of us assume Mason plays best pretty close to, with back to, the basket. We've all been impressed with his improvement. Until recently.

For - cursed be the name Seth Greenberg - as this season has, uh, recently regressed, opposing coaches seem to have caught on to the fact that Mason can be bumped, crowded, pushed out too easily, blocked, and [my obsession] footwork-distressed, to the point that Mason has looked discombobulated in the first half of the GT game and pretty much throughout the Miami game. So it's no insight on my part to say we all will be watching Saturday to see how Md plays Mason and how he responds.

As for the ghost-D that Duke played against Miami, maybe on that side of the ball K will go for "drastic" rather than "tweak." The truth is, I've no idea what to expect, beyond a much better, less confused, effort on D, against, after all, a team that should not be able to score enough points on Sat to beat Duke.

[moonpie23]

New Castle Brown Ale is always a good choice. .

the bone-in ribeye of ales

[devildeac]

To be fair to myself, I didn't make the prediction, I only advertised it. But in the spirit of fair play, I'll wager a Bomber as long as you promise to let me help drink it come FB season.

I'll bring a glass for each of us. We'll decide later who treats and what that treat will be.