MBB: Miami 90, Duke 63 Post-Game Thread

[Jarhead]

I turned the TV off with about 9 minutes left in the game. I cannot recall ever doing that. Mrs. Jarhead was so upset, she left the TV room before halftime, and didn't return. Coach K now has a really tough task, and a tremendous opportunity. Let's go Duke.

[burnspbesq]

Between Monday night's second half and tonight's game ...

"I picked a bad week to stop sniffing glue."

[jv001]

90 points given up to a team that does not come close to scoring that many on almost any given night. Our defense was terrible. Once Miami began to make baskets, they had the confidence to beat us and we were ice cold and had no confidence. This game looked like some of the early 70 games. We have to pick it up both on defense and offense. GoDuke!

[MartyClark]

Can't think of much to say about the game. Anyone had a tasty microbrew lately they'd like to brag on?

"Cane and Ebel", Two Brothers Brewing Company, Warrenville, Illinois. Really good rye beer. I think I'll have another.

I don't see any silver lining in this cloud. I lean toward the school of "exposing basic flaws" vs. "statistical anamolies".

[loran16]

I'm making a separate thread here because a fair number of posters are saying things like: "Duke just didn't bring it tonight" or "Duke didn't have fight in them tonight." And it won't just be posters, so I'm not calling anyone out here - this will be what some columnists will right too. It's a convenient narrative that is easy to run with and Sportswriters love a convenient narrative (See Te'o, Manti).

But it's lazy. And Wrong. Duke may have been outplayed by Miami tonight. But the large gap between the two teams was caused not by a lack of fight, lack of passion, or just not bringing it....but by the stroke of luck.

Consider a shooter, let's say Seth Curry, who if left open makes 60% of his 3s (This is way too high, but let's say he can do this in practice). If Curry takes 100 wide open 3s, he'll make 60. But he'll also miss 40.

And here's the thing: these misses? They can come spread apart or they can come in bunches. The reason for this is simple: Humans aren't robots. If a player does the same thing 100 times, he'll fail a certain amount of the time simply because human beings simply can't repeat actions perfectly over and over again - there is always variation. This is why even J.J. Redick would miss a few free throws here and there, and would on rare occasion miss a few in a row! And these misses aren't caused by pressure or by a lack of passion or heart. No. These misses are just caused by the random variations of the human body. And as they're random, how they bunch up is nothing but luck.

Let's give an example of how this works: Let's say our 60% shooter plays 3 games in a row and goes 6/7 in each of them. It can happen. Then the next game he goes 0-9. His total? 60% - 18/30. Did the player suck in the last game because of lack of skill? No. Luck just caught up to him.

---------

What happened tonight was what I just described - Duke's shooters missed lots of open shots - not because of lack of heart, fight, whatever. Because of dumb luck. It happens. And when it does the team will have trouble winning....

especially when the converse happens also! Because just as a team can have bad luck, so can the other team have good luck. Kenny Kadji is a 44% shooter - he went 9/11. Durand Scott is secretly a bad 3 point shooter, he hit 3 of his four, all of which were defended well. Etc. Etc.

There will come nights when both good and bad luck hit simultaneously. You hope they don't happen in the tournament, but they can and that's why the one game sample size is impossible to predict. And that's why tonight happened.

-----------

Guys this is how NC State beat Duke by a lot in our 2010 year - a game that some posters on this board may remember made me cry in a separate thread. Later that year we won the title. That loss was an illusion (Duke did get better in that year, but it was never as bad as it was in that state game, all because of luck).

[JBDuke]

I'm beginning to think that this is a psychologically fragile team. Normally, you'd think a team with as many upperclassmen as we've got wouldn't be so, but I'm wondering...

Mason's FT shooting has always appeared to me to be a confidence thing. As many have noted, after a good start to the year, his FT shooting has been below 60% since the calendar flipped to December. He's also regressed somewhat in his aggressive low post play, often hesitating, sometimes even shooting those ugly fade away or drifting-across-the-lane shots that we've seen so much from him before. I certainly don't see these trends as examples of confidence.

Seth is hampered by his injury, and he's only practicing about 1/4 of the time. That may impact his own confidence, and it certainly impacts his ability to provide leadership in practice.

Josh and Tyler both put out a lot of effort and don't lie down for anybody, but they're also limited in their ability to lead on the floor. Neither can carry the team on offense, and with Ryan out, we need players that can contribute more offensively. They both play hard and play pretty good defense - Tyler especially - but both are limited athletically.

Quinn has shown flashes of being a confident, almost arrogant floor leader, but he has few performances on which to base that attitude. Last year was essentially lost for him, and it took him a few game to hit his stride this year. He's been brilliant at times, but also had some real inconsistency in his own offense. After tonight, he's only made 3 of his last 16 3-pointers and 10 of his last 37 total FGAs.

And Alex, Amile, Rasheed, and Marshall are all freshman.

So, who's the guy who is going to grab the rest by the jersey and say "We're not going down without a fight - not on my watch. Gimme the darned ball!"?

[roywhite]

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.

[loran16]

I'm beginning to think that this is a psychologically fragile team. Normally, you'd think a team with as many upperclassmen as we've got wouldn't be so, but I'm wondering...

Mason's FT shooting has always appeared to me to be a confidence thing. As many have noted, after a good start to the year, his FT shooting has been below 60% since the calendar flipped to December. He's also regressed somewhat in his aggressive low post play, often hesitating, sometimes even shooting those ugly fade away or drifting-across-the-lane shots that we've seen so much from him before. I certainly don't see these trends as examples of confidence.

Seth is hampered by his injury, and he's only practicing about 1/4 of the time. That may impact his own confidence, and it certainly impacts his ability to provide leadership in practice.

Josh and Tyler both put out a lot of effort and don't lie down for anybody, but they're also limited in their ability to lead on the floor. Neither can carry the team on offense, and with Ryan out, we need players that can contribute more offensively. They both play hard and play pretty good defense - Tyler especially - but both are limited athletically.

Quinn has shown flashes of being a confident, almost arrogant floor leader, but he has few performances on which to base that attitude. Last year was essentially lost for him, and it took him a few game to hit his stride this year. He's been brilliant at times, but also had some real inconsistency in his own offense. After tonight, he's only made 3 of his last 16 3-pointers and 10 of his last 37 total FGAs.

And Alex, Amile, Rasheed, and Marshall are all freshman.

So, who's the guy who is going to grab the rest by the jersey and say "We're not going down without a fight - not on my watch. Gimme the darned ball!"?

Read my post above please. Rather than psychoanalyze this team, realize that sometimes shots don't fall. It happens even to great teams - say like Carolina @ FSU last year, or Duke @ NC State in 2010, or @UVA in 91 (I know a mythology has sprouted about that game but please).

[subzero02]

ESPN just answered my question.

Largest margins of victory over a #1 team:

1) Kentucky beat #1 SJU by 41, 12/17/51
2) UCLA beat #1 Houston by 32, 3/22/68

This is third.

That's a tough fact to deal with... I think practice might start at RDU airport around midnight... Issues with a lack of effort will not be tolerated... Seth needs more of a killer instinct, I agree with Jwill

[DevilYouthCoach]

That had zero to do with missing Ryan, we just got flat out beatdown. Gotta learn from it and move on...it's hard to match teams intensity when it seems like they're playing in the National Championship when they see Duke.

Matching or Exceeding the intensity of your opponent is the first requirement of winning. We didn't come close. And actually, it's easy to see why. We are depressed and worried and tentative, because the truth is that ever since Kelly went down, we simply are not the same team. A big, smart guy like Kelly who can shoot threes would be central to anyone's team and without him we are nothing like the same team we were. Our guys have to suck it up, realize that they are now underdogs on the road everywhere they play, and go out there with fury in their heart. That's the only way we are going to win.

[loran16]

Matching or Exceeding the intensity of your opponent is the first requirement of winning. We didn't come close. And actually, it's easy to see why. We are depressed and worried and tentative, because the truth is that ever since Kelly went down, we simply are not the same team. A big, smart guy like Kelly who can shoot threes would be central to anyone's team and without him we are nothing like the same team we were. Our guys have to suck it up, realize that they are now underdogs on the road everywhere they play, and go out there with fury in their heart. That's the only way we are going to win.

Again, "intensity"? What does that even mean. During their big run, we had a bunch of open shots that we just missed. If they go in, are we suddenly having "intensity?" If Scott and Kadji - two bad 3 point shooters for their careers believe it or not - don't hit contested 3s to start their big run, would Miami have less intensity?

This is not about heart. It's insulting to the players to keep saying that.

I know it sucks to think that sometimes losses are out of our control and can't be solved by simple practice. But it's the truth.

[pamtar]

Did I miss something? Did the U actually slap the floor in unison to mock us? Someone please clarify.

Other than that I don't have much to say about tonight's game. I live in the redneck hell-hole of Beaufort County so whatever good beers we can buy are usually made by New Belgium. Um, Alex Murphy did OK?

Oh yeah, the ball has to go through Mason if we're gonna score. He needs to touch the ball around 50% of our possessions. Seth cannot score off the dribble anymore. Maybe at the start of the season he could but those leg(s) are not holding up right now, and it shows. Sheed and Quinn need to step the (expletive) up. There is no reason Quinn should not be scoring 10-15 a game at this point. If Mason isn't open then drive it to the basket and finish or kick. I don't care if he misses his first 5 every game. He's got to look to score. We are becoming one dimensional without a third option. (If that even makes sense mathematically.)

FWIW, if Seth and Quinn score their avg, we only lose by 10ish.

[6th Man]

We looked alarmingly unathletic tonight.

[Cameron]

Forget the microbrew. This is what Ambien is for.

[Duke76]

I'm beginning to think that this is a psychologically fragile team. Normally, you'd think a team with as many upperclassmen as we've got wouldn't be so, but I'm wondering...

Mason's FT shooting has always appeared to me to be a confidence thing. As many have noted, after a good start to the year, his FT shooting has been below 60% since the calendar flipped to December. He's also regressed somewhat in his aggressive low post play, often hesitating, sometimes even shooting those ugly fade away or drifting-across-the-lane shots that we've seen so much from him before. I certainly don't see these trends as examples of confidence.

Seth is hampered by his injury, and he's only practicing about 1/4 of the time. That may impact his own confidence, and it certainly impacts his ability to provide leadership in practice.

Josh and Tyler both put out a lot of effort and don't lie down for anybody, but they're also limited in their ability to lead on the floor. Neither can carry the team on offense, and with Ryan out, we need players that can contribute more offensively. They both play hard and play pretty good defense - Tyler especially - but both are limited athletically.

Quinn has shown flashes of being a confident, almost arrogant floor leader, but he has few performances on which to base that attitude. Last year was essentially lost for him, and it took him a few game to hit his stride this year. He's been brilliant at times, but also had some real inconsistency in his own offense. After tonight, he's only made 3 of his last 16 3-pointers and 10 of his last 37 total FGAs.

And Alex, Amile, Rasheed, and Marshall are all freshman.

So, who's the guy who is going to grab the rest by the jersey and say "We're not going down without a fight - not on my watch. Gimme the darned ball!"?

I vote for Rasheed but really Mason has just lost many of his positive post moves like he has forgotten how to move left right left right give me drop step or two

[mr. synellinden]

That game reminds me of that time when I was a child playing in the back yard, and a stink bug flew into my mouth.

POTD (decade, not day)

[grossbus]

"Did I miss something? Did the U actually slap the floor in unison to mock us? Someone please clarify."

yes, late in the game. don't really know if it was done to mock us, but they did it.

[sporthenry]

All I cay say is that it looked like K was sick at this performance. Watching them slap the floor, have fun and smile for the last 10 minutes of the game. That is sickening. We can question how hard they did play but I can only hope that K and Duke never forget this as I would love to see a floor slap back in Cameron this time going the other way. But the best way to keep them from slapping the floor and wiping that smile off their face is to beat them down. Hopefully, Miami awoke a sleeping giant.

[Class of '94]

I'm so ticked off right now. As many have pointed out, this team tonight didn't play hard for 40 minutes and didn't play defense. IMO They let their offensive struggles affect their defense. Very similar to the State game, they got killed in transition. Duke was once again exposed in transition defense (or lack thereof) by Miami. Our guards were non-existent and Rashe ed disappeared after that first 3 he made. I was really disappointed in Curry's play tonight. As a fifth year senior, I expected more from him. Maybe the injury is finally catching up with him. The only senior that I thought battled out there in the game was Mason. This game reminded me of the Clemson game a few years ago where Duke got its butts handed to them by Clemson. This team has to remember this game for the rest of the season and never let this happen again. Right now without Ryan, this team defensively is starting to look like last year's team now. As an poster pointed out earlier, whatever they did for the last 6 days did not carry over into this game; and that is very disappointing. This team has lost it's edge and I agree that it started imo after the Ohio State game. This team played soft tonight and did not fight. They collectively need to regain that hunger and chip on their shoulders and remind themselves that Duke teams play hard all the time and they play defense. I think we're now going to see what kind of leaders Seth, Ryan and Mason are from this point forward.

[Duke76]

Did I miss something? Did the U actually slap the floor in unison to mock us? Someone please clarify.

Other than that I don't have much to say about tonight's game. I live in the redneck hell-hole of Beaufort County so whatever good beers we can buy are usually made by New Belgium. Um, Alex Murphy did OK?

Oh yeah, the ball has to go through Mason if we're gonna score. He needs to touch the ball around 50% of our possessions. Seth cannot score off the dribble anymore. Maybe at the start of the season he could but those leg(s) are not holding up right now, and it shows. Sheed and Quinn need to step the (expletive) up. There is no reason Quinn should not be scoring 10-15 a game at this point. If Mason isn't open then drive it to the basket and finish or kick. I don't care if he misses his first 5 every game. He's got to look to score. We are becoming one dimensional without a third option. (If that even makes sense mathematically.)

FWIW, if Seth and Quinn score their avg, we only lose by 10ish.

which is a sign of lack of confidence...our guys have lost their confidence...we can get it back but they gotta play with a swagger and that has gone for now.....kelly will save the day..