MBB: Duke at Miami (Jan 23, 2013) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[JBDuke]

Put your pre-game and in-game thoughts here.

[gep]

I see this game as a "must" (all lower case, not all upper case) win. And, I'm nervous, nonetheless... especially on the road.

[DukieInBrasil]

I'm looking for Rasheed to follow up his strong 2nd half performance from the GT game and be the piece of the puzzle that Miami can't solve.
Larkin vs Cook: slight edge to Duke, they score and shoot about the same, but Quinn is a better distributor.
Scott vs Curry: edge to Curry, Seth is shooting lights out and is crafty. Scott is a better rebounder and distributor though.
McKinney-Jones vs Sulaimon: slight edge Duke. These guys are very similar, and though TMJ is a 5th year veteran, i'm hoping the freshman RS will really have a big-time game.
Kadji vs Jefferson (Hairston/Murphy): edge Miami. Kadji can be really hard to defend, but is somewhat erratic. I expect him to be fully dialed in and play well.
Gamble vs Mason: edge Duke. Mason has just played much better than Gamble so far. Still he's big and strong and it's conceivable that he could play Mason to a draw if Miami's D doubles MP II and forces him to give up the ball. Mason is a much more prolific rebounder and almost triples JG's scoring.
Duke is much deeper, so our bench production will likely be a factor in our favor.
Despite having so many individual match-ups and the bench and coaching factors in our favor, i still don't predict this to be an easy win for Duke, although Duke certainly could win by double figures if they come out of the gates playing like they did in the 2nd half vs GT. If the 1st half vs GT team comes out in the first half, this Miami team could certainly bury us.
If the teams were in fact totally equal and home-court advantage was factored in, would the motivation to play to keep the (assuming we get it) #1 ranking yield greater dividends than motivation to beat the #1 team on your home court? I think option B.

[gofurman]

I'm looking for Rasheed to follow up his strong 2nd half performance from the GT game and be the piece of the puzzle that Miami can't solve.
Larkin vs Cook: slight edge to Duke, they score and shoot about the same, but Quinn is a better distributor.
Scott vs Curry: edge to Curry, Seth is shooting lights out and is crafty. Scott is a better rebounder and distributor though.
McKinney-Jones vs Sulaimon: slight edge Duke. These guys are very similar, and though TMJ is a 5th year veteran, i'm hoping the freshman RS will really have a big-time game.
Kadji vs Jefferson (Hairston/Murphy): edge Miami. Kadji can be really hard to defend, but is somewhat erratic. I expect him to be fully dialed in and play well.
Gamble vs Mason: edge Duke. Mason has just played much better than Gamble so far. Still he's big and strong and it's conceivable that he could play Mason to a draw if Miami's D doubles MP II and forces him to give up the ball. Mason is a much more prolific rebounder and almost triples JG's scoring.
Duke is much deeper, so our bench production will likely be a factor in our favor.
Despite having so many individual match-ups and the bench and coaching factors in our favor, i still don't predict this to be an easy win for Duke, although Duke certainly could win by double figures if they come out of the gates playing like they did in the 2nd half vs GT. If the 1st half vs GT team comes out in the first half, this Miami team could certainly bury us.
If the teams were in fact totally equal and home-court advantage was factored in, would the motivation to play to keep the (assuming we get it) #1 ranking yield greater dividends than motivation to beat the #1 team on your home court? I think option B.

I can only hope you are right. This game scares me for some reason. Miami has it going - esp considering they are without RJ. Curry may be playing lights out but Durand Scott is a nasty athlete and could give Curry fits. I could see Scott being the kind of guy that really bothers our man CUrry - Scott is a 6'5 Senior who I think can leap pretty well. Thats a tough assignment on both ends for Curry - even if it is just Curry trying to shoot over Scott thats a better defender than most teams put on Curry. And you are right with Kadji - he is the closest thing to a 'Ryan Kelly' out there. A little more athletic with a little less shot but a good mid-range shooter at 6'10 or 6'11. Dangerous for the same reasons Ryan Kelly is. Ill agree with Mason over Gamble and Cook over Larkin though Larkin is legitimate. I might give the edge to T Jones over Suliamon - Jones is a 5th year senior playing at home vs Duke. He will be amped and isnt a lightweight. Long term Suliamon is better but at this stage? Not so sure.

At miami - and you know it will be jumping - this is a very tough game. Miami is the only team to actually win at Chapel Hill and they beat Michigan State (though that was with RJ).

And, with the exception of Larkin at PG, the entire Miami starting lineup is comprised of Seniors I am pretty sure. Thats very rare these days as we know. Actually, had Ryan been playing this would have been about the most Senior-laden ACC game.

I agree on your assumption that coming in as number 1 ranked team doesnt help Duke - that just gets all the Miami crowd in the stands.

[Kedsy]

Kadji vs Jefferson (Hairston/Murphy): edge Miami. Kadji can be really hard to defend, but is somewhat erratic. I expect him to be fully dialed in and play well.
Gamble vs Mason: edge Duke. Mason has just played much better than Gamble so far. Still he's big and strong and it's conceivable that he could play Mason to a draw if Miami's D doubles MP II and forces him to give up the ball. Mason is a much more prolific rebounder and almost triples JG's scoring.

I think these are the key matchups. Miami has a huge edge with Kadji, but we have a huge edge with Mason. If, as you suggest, Gamble plays Mason to a draw, then I think we lose unless our PFs also play Kadji to a draw. Fortunately, I don't expect Gamble to play Mason to a draw, but I suppose you never know.

If the teams were in fact totally equal and home-court advantage was factored in, would the motivation to play to keep the (assuming we get it) #1 ranking yield greater dividends than motivation to beat the #1 team on your home court? I think option B.

Personally, I don't think the #1 ranking will come into play much, if at all, from a motivation standpoint. Playing a game with major repercussions on the ACC standings should be enough motivation. Miami, of course, will also have the usual get-up-for-Duke motivation. Most of Duke players remember Miami beating us at Duke last year, and that could motivate as well.

[Kedsy]

This game scares me for some reason.

For some reason? Probably because Miami is a really good team playing at home with four seniors and two juniors among their top 7 minute-getters (5 seniors once Johnson comes back). They're #20 in Pomeroy, #17 in Sagarin, and #5 in the RPI. In my mind, they should be every bit as tough as NC State was (#26 Pomeroy, #22 Sagarin, #12 RPI), if not tougher, although perhaps not when they're not at full strength. Although of course we're not at full strength either. We can definitely win the game, but I'm not sure we should be a favorite.

[gofurman]

For some reason? Probably because Miami is a really good team playing at home with four seniors and two juniors among their top 7 minute-getters (5 seniors once Johnson comes back). They're #20 in Pomeroy, #17 in Sagarin, and #5 in the RPI. In my mind, they should be every bit as tough as NC State was (#26 Pomeroy, #22 Sagarin, #12 RPI), if not tougher, although perhaps not when they're not at full strength. Although of course we're not at full strength either. We can definitely win the game, but I'm not sure we should be a favorite.

Well, the reason I put it like that is I was responding to 'DukieinBrasil' who gave just about every edge to us in his analyis. I see it more like you. I dont think either team should be favored by more than 4 or 5 points in this one...at the most. Put it this way, I would love for Duke to win this one but I was looking at the schedule and doing the math to figure we can still win the conference even if we lose (the fact that I went to do that math is telling). I think its a 50/50 game for us at best down in Miami.

[ice-9]

As I previously wrote about in the Ryan Kelly vigil and as DukieinBrasil pointed out, Miami is a good match-up for us even without Ryan. We are better at every position and I'd still rather have Amile than Kadji on my team. We should win. That said, I'm still very nervous about this game, and here's why...

- We're still a team trying to find its identity without Ryan

- Miami has a bunch of seniors and home court. This will also only be our second true road game -- and we lost the first one

- Seth's unbelievable shooting kept us close to NC State and was the reason we eventually blew out Georgia Tech. What if he goes cold against Miami? Will Mason and Rasheed play well enough to carry the scoring load?

I think we can count on Mason, but Rasheed is a freshman who had one good game after a series of below-par ones (relatively speaking). We'll have to see, but Rasheed is going to be key. If he plays well and Mason and Seth play close to what they average, we should be OK.

[mo.st.dukie]

For some reason? Probably because Miami is a really good team playing at home with four seniors and two juniors among their top 7 minute-getters (5 seniors once Johnson comes back). They're #20 in Pomeroy, #17 in Sagarin, and #5 in the RPI. In my mind, they should be every bit as tough as NC State was (#26 Pomeroy, #22 Sagarin, #12 RPI), if not tougher, although perhaps not when they're not at full strength. Although of course we're not at full strength either. We can definitely win the game, but I'm not sure we should be a favorite.

Yep, just like last Saturday this is another game that Duke could easily lose even if Ryan Kelly was 100% healthy. Even if you don't factor in how good Miami actually is just the fact that it is a road conference game is something to be concerned about no matter how good or bad the opponent appears. It certainly wouldn't be the end of the world if we lost. The 2010 team lost 3 games in January, all on the road and had lost 4 out of 5 "true road games" through January which of course led everybody to claim how overrated Duke was because they couldn't win on the road. Duke will have to play very well to pull out a win.

[licc85]

This is definitely a very losable game . . . and frankly, it would not be a huge surprise if Miami came out motivated with hot shooting and took us down. Obviously, if we play the way we did in the 2nd half against GTech, we win, but if we play that way, I'm pretty sure we win against just about anyone. I mean, jeez, Seth hit 4 threes in the half, you can't come back from that. It should be a very very close game against a team that is playing great at the moment. I wouldn't call it a "must win," though. I think we're far from the team that we will be 10 games from now, and this, in my opinion, is the toughest game we have left on our conference schedule, especially since I expect the team to be vastly improved by the next time we play against Miami on 3/2, and perhaps slightly improved with a chance of RK against NC State on 2/7. (both home games) So even if we lose, it only gets easier from here. Plus, I don't see Miami running through the ACC with only 1 or 2 losses, so we'd still be very much in the race for the conference title, although we would have much less wiggle room.

[gumbomoop]

I have been high on Miami since preseason, thinking them the most likely to challenge for a spot in the ACC's top 4, with NCSt, Duke, and UNC. I posted a couple of times wondering why, preseason, they weren't considered clearly superior to FSU.

Seems I underrated them anyway, given how they've played thus far without Reggie in their 4 ACC games. Maybe it's fair to say they win ugly? Three out of 3 road wins, even against mostly mediocre competition, is noteworthy. If they beat Duke, they hold down #1 in conference, and play a slightly easier ACC schedule than Duke after Wed's game. Specifically, they do not during the remainder of the season visit either Md, UVa, or UNC, and play NCSt only once, in that case in Raleigh. Beat Duke, and Miami becomes co-favorite with Duke and NCSt win ACC reg season. Maybe even favorite, depending on Reggie's return.

Miami has played more games without Reggie than has Duke without Ryan, so Larranaga has had more time/games than K to recalibrate his rotation. Miami essentially plays a 6-man rotation, trying to steal a few minutes to relieve an inconsistent but improving Julian Gamble and the experienced and very dangerous Kenny Kadji. I expect Gamble to be fired up, fierce, ready to play Mason tough. Miami rotates 4 solid if inconsistent players on the perimeter. Trey McKinney Jones takes about 1/2 his shots from 3-land, hitting 41% out there, whereas Rion Brown takes nearly 60% of his shots from 3-land, while sinking but 22% of these.

For once, Duke's current 7-man rotation is actually deeper than the opponent's. Miami's really pretty limited, especially inside, so Marshall might get a few minutes against whomever Larranaga sticks in there for a minute or so to relieve Gamble or Kadji. Foul trouble for any of Mason, Gamble, Kadji would be game-altering.

[Bob Green]

Our on ball defensive pressure against Miami's guards will be key. The 'Canes can be sloppy with the ball. In their 68-59 win over Carolina, Larkin turned the ball over four times, while McKinney-Jones turned it over five times. Beyond the raw numbers, I watched this game and Miami looked out of sync in their halfcourt offense until the last 8 minutes or so of the game when they knocked down multiple 3 PT FGs. Quinn Cook needs to turn up the heat on Shane Larkin to prevent Miami from playing comfortable. Rasheed Sulaimon's length and lateral quickness (I really enjoy typing that) is another advantage for Duke.

The major advantage Miami has over Duke is Mr. Kenny Kadji. Kadji is a talented ball player who can hurt you inside and out. Our power forward platoon of Hairston/Jefferson/Murphy must contain Kadji. A strong game from Jefferson on the offensive glass could result in some foul trouble for Kadji. Speaking of foul trouble, Mason Plumlee must avoid it. This is a game where the absence of Ryan Kelly could be our Achilles Heel.

While Mason Plumlee will have the advantage in his match-up against Julian Gamble, Gamble is going to put his body on Mason so it will be important for Mason to finish through physical contact, something he has struggled with in ACC play.

So my factors for victory are: 1) on ball pressure by Cook on Larkin; 2) contain Kenny Kadji; 3) Mason Plumlee finishing through physical contact.

[CDu]

It'll be an interesting game, as each team is missing a key senior frontcourt player. We have more overall talent, but Miami is very experienced and well-coached. Here's how I see the matchups.

C (Mason vs Julian Gamble): Miami is replacing Reggie Johnson with Julian Gamble. Gamble is tall (6'10") and can finish an uncontested layup/dunk. But beyond that, he doesn't bring much to the table. Mason needs to win this matchup decisively. He has to be a big presence on offense, while also not allowing Gamble easy putback chances when their guards drive.

PF (Jefferson/Hairston vs Kenny Kadji): Kadji is a bit like Kelly on offense in that he likes to play outside in. He's not as good a shooter as Kelly, but he's a better post scorer. He's also a better rebounder (he's probably 15-20 pounds heavier than Kelly). This is not a good matchup for Jefferson, because Kadji is strong enough to post Jefferson up, and good enough from the perimeter to stretch Jefferson out. It'll be tough for Jefferson to guard Kadji without fouling, especially if Kadji posts up. It's actually a reasonable matchup for Hairston though. Kadji isn't quick or explosive, which means he probably won't blow Hairston away athletically. So maybe, between the two of our guys, we can do an adequate job on Kadji. The key to this matchup is simply not to lose it too badly.

Wing (Curry vs Trey McKinney-Jones): Technically, McKinney-Jones plays SF for the 'Canes, but I'd expect him to guard Curry. I don't see the 'Canes wanting to waste the energy of their better guards chasing Curry. Plus, McKinney-Jones is big and can be physical. On the other end, I think Curry is best suited to defend McKinney-Jones, because McKinney-Jones is best suited as a shooter and isn't terribly effective off the dribble. This is a matchup that we have to win decisively.

Wing (Sulaimon/Thornton vs Durand Scott): Scott is a 6'5", strong, combo guard who can create his own shot or distribute off the dribble. He's streaky as an outside shooter, and streaky overall. When he's on, he's as tough a cover as there is in the league. But he can disappear at times and decision-making can be an issue for him. This is another position where we just need to keep it close and not let Scott go off.

PG (Cook vs Shane Larkin): Larkin is a quick playmaker/shooter who can struggle against physical contact. He is good off the dribble and can set up others, and he's a terrific shooter. If Cook can stay with Larkin, he can eliminate Larkin's effectiveness (Larkin isn't a superb passer - just a capable one who excels off the dribble). This is probably the closest matchup on the floor, but it's one that we very much need to win.

Bench: Rion Brown is the only player of note off of Miami's bench. He's big and athletic, and subs in for both McKinney-Jones and Scott. Brown fancies himself a 3pt shooter, but he's pretty bad at it. Hopefully he feels the need to shoot (and miss) a bunch of 3s. Aside from Brown, the 'Canes rotate a slew of warm bodies in the post. None are of note offensively or defensively.

It'll come down to us winning the matchups that favor us and limiting the matchups that favor Miami. Very winnable game, even without Kelly.

[tele]

I like Duke's chances in this game because of their depth.

[roywhite]

Miami 78 -- Duke 74 from 2/5/2012

Some things have changed, but it is interesting to see the contributions of Reggie Johnson (which were huge), Kenny Kadje 4-5 from 3-pt, and Larkin playing 38 minutes.

I like the matchup of Quinn vs Larkin, and I'm encouraged about Amile's capability to defend Kadje. Amile can move well enough and is long enough to defend small forwards on the perimeter, so I think he can get out on Kadje and contest his outside game. As others have noted, he needs to do this without getting into foul trouble.

[Kedsy]

I like the matchup of Quinn vs Larkin, and I'm encouraged about Amile's capability to defend Kadje. Amile can move well enough and is long enough to defend small forwards on the perimeter, so I think he can get out on Kadje and contest his outside game. As others have noted, he needs to do this without getting into foul trouble.

The issue is Kadji is listed at 242 lbs and Amile at only 195.

[dcar1985]

The issue is Kadji is listed at 242 lbs and Amile at only 195.

Shouldn't matter much on the perimeter...if no one rotates on D and we let Kadje drive free to the basket then we've got bigger problems.

We'll need Amile and Josh to play smart in the post though...try to deny entry passes, play the angles.

[Newton_14]

Kadji killed us last year, just flat out killed us, mostly from 3 land as was mentioned. We could have withstood the heroics of Reggie had we contained Kadji. He hit tough 3's too. We have to take that away this time, and Mason should be able to shut down Gamble. We need to turn Miami into a jump shooting team and shutdown their bigs. Easier said than done of course, but doable.

On offense, we need to limit turnovers, and feed the beast inside early an often. Get Mason touches from the start and force Miami to guard. I think Mason can get Gamble or Kadji in foul trouble if we get him the ball in the right spots, and Mason is aggressive and smart. With the extra rest, we should get the All-ACC version of Seth. Let those two set the tone early, and allow Rasheed and Quinn to take advantage of the openings that should create.

As I noted in the revised Phase thread posting, I am anxious to see what new looks we see from K in this game on offense. I missed the Daily DBR on the radio today, but K hinted Friday that there would be some revamping going on with the extra practices the off-weekend provided, to try to remake "the new team" sans Ryan Kelly. Not sure how he will play it, but I suspect whatever he puts in, will be geared toward Mason and Seth being the focal points of the offense. If so, it make take some pressure off of Rasheed to help him loosen up. Rasheed played really well against Tech. We need that to continue.

[DukeWarhead]

We can definitely win the game, but I'm not sure we should be a favorite.

Were are currently the #1 team in the nation. We have no choice but to be the favorite, road game or not.

[Kedsy]

Shouldn't matter much on the perimeter...if no one rotates on D and we let Kadje drive free to the basket then we've got bigger problems.

Obviously we'll see how things go, but if I were Kadji (or Kadji's coach), he's not going to be floating out there on the perimeter. He's got Miami's biggest matchup advantage and a lot of that advantage is using his superior size.

Were are currently the #1 team in the nation. We have no choice but to be the favorite, road game or not.

Well, perhaps that's true if all we care about are the poll voters' opinions. If we're actually using the term "favorite" to signify who has the better chance to win the game, I'm not sure you're right. I don't know what the Las Vegas odds are, but my guess is they won't be more than 2 or 3 points, and even that is probably just because the betting public is moderately clueless. In my opinion they should be pretty close to pick 'em, or possibly Miami should be a slight favorite.