Survivor: Caramoan- Fans vs. Favorites

[Udaman]

Oh, and one more thing...Eddie is BRUTAL in challenges. He's soft. There is no way he's going on an immunity run (and I wouldn't be surprised if he's the one who leaves this Sunday with a medical problem)

[Udaman]

And I'm now 100% convinced that Dawn will not win this thing (after watching the Ponderosa videos of the Jury members talking together).

Reynolds will not vote for her. Period.

Phillip will not vote for her. Period.

Malcolm will not vote for her. Period.

That's three people who's votes she cannot get. Suprisingly, Brenda didn't seem that filled with anger one day later, but that could change. I know that if Erik makes it, he'll never vote for her either.

What also surprised me is that love for Eddie. He could get Andrea, Reynolds and Malcolm's vote. That matters.

Cochran is still the favorite...but if it's not Cochran, then it's likely Erik, and if neither of them are in the final three, then I think Eddie wins it over Dawn and Sherri.

[mr. synellinden]

A few things:

7) This episode had the most raw and pure emotion I've seen on this show since...well, maybe ever. First you had Erik, who is literally starving to death in front of us - driven to exhaustion and despair. Then Brenda with her dad. Then Sherri with her son (though I will say, that with 2 days left, you have to know that you're going to be seeing everyone in 2 days anyway). Then Cochran with his mom. Then Erik with the heart sign with his hands to Brenda on the beach. Then Brenda in the video after getting voted out (and her comments to the tribe about how she was true to her word).

(and maybe even better than that one)

And don't forget Probst breaking down and crying for the first time in 26 seasons.

It was 100% clear to me that the choice was Brenda and Dawn +2 loved one vs. everyone else and their two loved ones. I agree that the best cover for Brenda was not taking it away from Dawn.

It strikes me as poetic justice that (in my view) Dawn can't win now because what she did to Brenda was as close to unfathomable in this game as it gets. It is equivalent in my mind to Dreams (Dreamz?) going back on his word a few seasons ago. And if Dawn couldn't realize that blindsiding Brenda would cost her any chance at winning the game, then she deserves to lose. With all her emotional breakdowns and all the support and compassion Brenda showed her, that move made her absolutely unlikable to me - which is remarkable because for nearly two full seasons she was very likable, even though her emotional instablilty crossed the line into irritating territory this season.

[JasonEvans]

Pretty safe to say that Brenda will not be voting for Dawn if Dawn makes it to the final. In this interview done just a few days ago, Brenda says that since they got back from filming Survivor, Danw has reached out to her many times but Brenda has not returned any of the phone calls. They have not spoken since Dawn voted Brenda out. Hold a grudge much?

-Jason "Dalton Ross of EW also says Brenda has absolutely poisoned the jury against Dawn... Dawn has zero chance of winning" Evans

[mph]

Pretty safe to say that Brenda will not be voting for Dawn if Dawn makes it to the final. In this interview done just a few days ago, Brenda says that since they got back from filming Survivor, Danw has reached out to her many times but Brenda has not returned any of the phone calls. They have not spoken since Dawn voted Brenda out. Hold a grudge much?

Unfortunate but understandable. As udaman mentioned upstream, Dawn was on the verge of complete breakdown at several points during the game and Brenda's help was of a deeply personal nature. Brenda suffered the consequence of forgetting that everything is part of the game, including her relationship with Dawn. Now Dawn is going to suffer the consequence of her betrayal of Brenda. I'll confess that I'm looking forward to Dawn getting her comeuppance when she (most likely) faces the jury.

I think the most interesting remaining variable is Eddie. Given his surprising ineptitude at the immunity challenges, it's unlikely that he wins one challenge, let alone two in a row, but Cochran will be doing some serious handwringing if Eddie makes it to the final 3. Reynold, Malcolm, Andrea, and Brenda are all possible votes for Eddie. I still think the strength of Cochran's game would sway the jury, but it wouldn't surprise me if Eddie won. Otherwise, Cochran plus any combination of Dawn, Erik, and Sherri is a slam dunk for Cochran and I think Erik wins if neither Cochran or Eddie make the final 3.

[Udaman]

Here's a great (for the most part) video of the Pavarti and Fabio talking about this last episode. A few thoughts:

1) They showed the clip with Jeff making the offer to Brenda about the family challenge....and JE was right, Jeff clearly states that "you can take one more person with their loved one or you can give all of them their loved ones" so it was either her, Dawn and one more person, or her and Dawn with nothing. I will admit that it was clearly confusing (and many of us including me thought that it was 2 or 4 and not 3 or 4). Given that, she should have taken the reward. Fabio and Pavarti agree.

2) Fabio is one of my favorite players. I hope he's on again sometime in the future (maybe Heroe's v. Villains 2).

3) They both kind of admit that Dawn has no shot at winning now.

http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/vi...show-it-hurts/

[JasonEvans]

Here is a thought for Brenda. When presented with the challenge conundrum, he should have turned to Dawn and said, "It is your call, what should I do?"

All the hand-wringing over the reward aside, I think Brenda was doomed. We are at the point in the game where the closeness of your allies is paramount and the bottom line is that Brenda's closest ally threw her under the bus the first chance she had. I am not sure anything was going to change that unless you think Brenda was ready or able to turn her back on Dawn to make a play with Sherri and Eric.

-Jason "I don't think Eddie wins even if he makes it to the end - he has done nothing strategic and has been pretty lame in challenges for a athletic guy" Evans

[mkirsh]

Here is a thought for Brenda. When presented with the challenge conundrum, he should have turned to Dawn and said, "It is your call, what should I do?"

That would have been brilliant! Of course Dawn would probably say "you won, so I can't take that from you"

All the hand-wringing over the reward aside, I think Brenda was doomed. We are at the point in the game where the closeness of your allies is paramount and the bottom line is that Brenda's closest ally threw her under the bus the first chance she had. I am not sure anything was going to change that unless you think Brenda was ready or able to turn her back on Dawn to make a play with Sherri and Eric.

Dawn did throw her under the bus, but it seemed like Cochran was the one who lit the fire on the blindside Brenda idea, and found Dawn and Sherri willing recipients. Would Dawn have gone along so willingly if Brenda had just taken her on reward with her family? I think she would have acted differently but obviously can't say with certainty. Can't imagine the Dawn backlash if she had gone on reward and then blindsided Brenda, she would likely move up to #2 in all time Survivor villains (behind Russell of course) if she had done that.

[matt1]

For a live blog of the finale:

http://survivortvshow.blogspot.com/

[mph]

Cochran recognized that Eddie was the only threat and now its all over but the final tally. Predicted vote totals:

Dawn - 0
Sherri - 1 (Phillip is crazy enough to do something like vote for Sherri)
Cochran - 7

Looking forward to Brenda's questioning of the final 3...

[matt1]

Cochran recognized that Eddie was the only threat and now its all over but the final tally. Predicted vote totals:

Dawn - 0
Sherri - 1 (Phillip is crazy enough to do something like vote for Sherri)
Cochran - 7

Looking forward to Brenda's questioning of the final 3...

I think that Cochran will win unanimously, but we will know soon enough. Phillip has respect for Cochran.

[mph]

I think that Cochran will win unanimously, but we will know soon enough. Phillip has respect for Cochran.

After the opening statements, I agree.

[Blue in the Face]

Apparently the reunion will be a little less interesting than it might have been.

Brandon Hantz won’t be present for the Survivor Caramoan reunion on Sunday, having apparently been told he cannot attend by CBS and/or the show’s producers.

[matt1]

Apparently the reunion will be a little less interesting than it might have been.

Also, Brenda will only be there via Skype, as she is too pregnant to travel. The non-jurors will also sit in the audience, rather than onstage.

[JasonEvans]

Also, Brenda will only be there via Skype, as she is too pregnant to travel. The non-jurors will also sit in the audience, rather than onstage.

They probably did that to hide Brandon's absence. I think it was a good idea to keep Brandon away. Survivor took a lot of flack for allowing someone who was clearly mentally unbalanced to be on the show and I think they just want to put that in the past.

There was a lot less conversation with the non-jury than in the past. Really, the whole reunion show was about Cochran, Dawn, Brenda, Malcolm, and Philip. I think Reynold, Andrea, and Eddie spoke a little bit but Rudy from the original Survivor got more face time than the rest of the cast.

I doubt they could pull it off, but I would love to see Survivor do a "Winners Only" edition with 16 or so of the former winners. Offer a $3 or $5 million dollar first prize if you need to to get a bunch of them to show up. I think it could be huge! If you can't get enough winners, make it winners and folks who came in 2nd or third (anyone who faced the final jury).

Oh, and I bet next season -- Blood vs. Water -- is something about family members competing against each other. Parents and kids, cousins, brothers and sisters... that kind of thing. You put them on different tribes and then, once a merge happens, you see if the family members will be more loyal to each other than to their tribemates. Could be fun!

-Jason "if anyone wants to read it, here is my recap for the Wall St Journal's blog of the episode... in which Cochran's huge victory is obvious" Evans

[OZZIE4DUKE]

The timing on Brenda's pregnancy makes no sense. She is due any day? When was the show filmed? Was she preggers on the Island? She must have been. Jason, can you enlighten us?

[Blue in the Face]

The timing on Brenda's pregnancy makes no sense. She is due any day? When was the show filmed? Was she preggers on the Island? She must have been. Jason, can you enlighten us?

It was filmed last May and June, so no, she wasn't pregnant. (No way CBS would allow a pregnant woman on the show).

[JasonEvans]

It was filmed last May and June, so no, she wasn't pregnant. (No way CBS would allow a pregnant woman on the show).

Bingo. Timing would dictate that she got pregnant in August. Seems like that she got back in June from being on the show and may have decided she missed her family so much that she wanted to start a family of her own. She may have also decided that she would never, ever be doing Survivor again so she went ahead and started a family.

-Jason "if the audience at home knew she was pregnant, I am sure that would have pushed her over the top to win the $100k Sprint Player of the Year contest" Evans