Duke #1, UNC out of top 25

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I'd love to see Creighton get another shot at UNC after last year's defeat in the tourny.

UNC might have to wear hockey pads for that potential re-match.

Wouldn't it be cool to see if Duke can find redemption against Lehigh too?...

[FerryFor50]

UNC might have to wear hockey pads for that potential re-match.

Wouldn't it be cool to see if Duke can find redemption against Lehigh too?...

Definitely, since they wouldn't have to deal with CJ MacCullom...

[Furniture]

They played alright first half, and then mailed it in...it should not have been a 10 point game, or whatever the final margin was

Thinking about it I only did watch most of the first half. They were running away with it so I couldn't bear to watch anymore....

[gep]

However, I'd love it even more if UNC makes the NIT instead. :-P

Well... I'd love it even more if not even the NIT. But maybe one of those "other" post-season tournaments... if that much

[cptnflash]

I will back up Old Navy's comments. I am not sure UNC will be a NCAA Tourney team. They have a lot of weaknesses that true Top 25 teams will exploit. When Jackson Simmons is becoming a rotation player, it is a sign of trouble. I thought it telling in the final 5 minutes of the FSU that Ol Roy left McAdoo (who had 4 Fouls) on the pine and went with Simmons with the game on the line. That would be like K subbing in Todd Z for Mason in the final 5 minutes and leaving Todd in til the end with the outcome hanging in the balance. I know Simmons is probably a better player than Todd but not by a huge margin. Both had offers to play at lesser schools.

I don't disagree that UNC is a fringe NCAA tournament team, but your comparison of Simmons & McAdoo vs. Todd & Mason is off the mark. First and foremost, it doesn't give Mason his due. Mason is a deserving national POY contender. James Michael McAdoo is a collosal disappointment that should have gone pro last year. JMM would have been a top 10 pick, a level he's likely to never see again (on every draft board last year, he was the second highest projected pick from UNC after H. Barnes). The thing is, he played so sparingly last year that no one realized he actually isn't very good. This year, there's no hiding it, as his 93.7 offensive efficiency rating will attest (if he was on our roster, he'd be the 3rd worst on our team, only slightly ahead of Alex and Josh). Mason, on the other hand, has dominated against far superior competition. Mason plays more minutes, has a higher usage rate, better efficiency, rebounds much better on both ends, draws more fouls, and blocks more shots. He even has a better free throw shooting percentage, despite his ongoing regression towards his historial perforamance rate. To put it bluntly, Mason is better than JMM by a wide margin in every meaningful facet of the game. It's not even close.

But also - Jackson Simmons has played extremely well, albeit in limited minutes. His ORtg is an other-worldly 132.9, because he makes his twos, draws fouls, makes free throws, and doesn't turn the ball over. He is in no way UNC's version of Todd Z. If anything, I would say Simmons is under-utilized and should play significantly more minutes.

To me, that's the biggest problem with UNC. It's mid-January, and Roy still hasn't figured out who his best players are. He is still starting Dexter Strickland, despite the fact that PJ Hairston is a much better player. Reggie Bullock, who is clearly their best player, has only played 66.6% of the team's minutes so far (by way of comparison, Mason is our best player, and has played 85% of our minutes so far). Desmond Hubert, who usually starts, has played only 28.5% of their minutes (if he's good enough to start, why isn't he good enough to play more than 1/4 of the game).

I recently ran a scatterplot of minutes played vs. PER for both UNC and Duke. Ours has a nicely upward sloping line and a reasonably tight distribution (p=0.55). UNC's is literally a mess of dots with no meaningful correlation at all and a line that slopes slightly downward. Ours looks like intelligent distribution of minutes, theirs looks like a Rorschach test.

[oldnavy]

Well, according to Pomeroy, UNC is the 5th best team in the ACC. So we shouldn't expect them to finish higher than 4th. Frankly, even if UNC was the team people thought they were in the pre-season, they'd be hard-pressed to finish higher than 4th. Compare them player-by-player to Duke, NC State, or Miami, and you shouldn't come out thinking UNC is clearly better than any of them.

I'm glad to hear that Pomeroy agrees with me . Just kidding, but seriously, I have no idea where Pomroy has anyone ranked. I figure his stats must be very good since a lot of people refer to them, but I don't visit his site.

I am just making an observation after watching some ACC ball this year, and watching UNC closely for a couple of games.

Part of UNC's problem is lack of solid post play, but like the above poster Cptflash says a lot is the willy nilly rotation that Ol Roy uses... I doubt that this UNC team will be a factor this year.

[COYS]

I have said before I think Roy needs to move to a 1 in 4 out offense with only one big on the floor to take advantage of the talent on his current team. I suspect though, that based on past history, unless injuries force his hand, he is going to stick with 2 bigs no matter what. Given he doesn't have two quality bigs in terms of starter caliber, I just don't feel they can be successful in the long haul with that set up. McAdoo is the best of the lot, and he has major issues with his game, even if he is putting up decent numbers. He struggles mightily in a halfcourt setting on offense and is a subpar defender. Hubert is not a guy that should be starting on a good quality team. A fairly good defender, but very limited offensively. Brice Johnson has nice offensive skills and scoring ability, but lacks size and toughness, and can't guard his shadow. Joel James has terrible hands, and is very raw offensively. He's also a defensive liability. Then you have Simmons. Solid fundamentals, but lacking in athletic ability.

This is an accurate post. What I think is really strange about Roy's rotations this year is that Bullock is about the best possible guard you could have on your team if your team is better off putting one of it's SG or SF at the PF spot. He's a great rebounder, good leaper, and at 6'7'', isn't even giving much up in height to many college PFs. What he would give up on the defensive end, he'd probably more than make up for on the offensive end where opposing PF will have to chase him around the three point line, which will clear more space for Bullock and others to drive as well as make it even easier for Bullock to get his three point shots off. There are years when a team's roster necessitates that the team play guys even if they're not quite ready. However, I think Bullock would make a formidable makeshift PF if Roy chose to use him that way. It seems crazy not to give the big guys a little more time to develop by only playing one of them with 4 guards for extended minutes in every game.

[oldnavy]

This is an accurate post. What I think is really strange about Roy's rotations this year is that Bullock is about the best possible guard you could have on your team if your team is better off putting one of it's SG or SF at the PF spot. He's a great rebounder, good leaper, and at 6'7'', isn't even giving much up in height to many college PFs. What he would give up on the defensive end, he'd probably more than make up for on the offensive end where opposing PF will have to chase him around the three point line, which will clear more space for Bullock and others to drive as well as make it even easier for Bullock to get his three point shots off. There are years when a team's roster necessitates that the team play guys even if they're not quite ready. However, I think Bullock would make a formidable makeshift PF if Roy chose to use him that way. It seems crazy not to give the big guys a little more time to develop by only playing one of them with 4 guards for extended minutes in every game.

It is a little amusing to me to watch Roy substitute during a game. I have often just sat there and shook my head when I see him motion to bring in subs. I remember a specific game back in 2010 when they were struggling. It was a rare time that Ginyard was having a hot hand on offense (I forget who they were playing), but Ginyard had hit something like three jumpers in a row and UNC had the momentum. Next whistle, Ginyard is going to the bench and I believe one of the Wear brothers were coming in. Needless to say, all the MO went out the window and UNC lost eventually lost the game.

This happens often if you pay attention to UNC games. It just seems like a set in stone rotation of minutes regardless of game situation. There may be more to it than I see, but for the life of me I cannot explain some of the subs when they happen...

[Newton_14]

I don't disagree that UNC is a fringe NCAA tournament team, but your comparison of Simmons & McAdoo vs. Todd & Mason is off the mark. First and foremost, it doesn't give Mason his due. Mason is a deserving national POY contender. James Michael McAdoo is a collosal disappointment that should have gone pro last year. JMM would have been a top 10 pick, a level he's likely to never see again (on every draft board last year, he was the second highest projected pick from UNC after H. Barnes). The thing is, he played so sparingly last year that no one realized he actually isn't very good. This year, there's no hiding it, as his 93.7 offensive efficiency rating will attest (if he was on our roster, he'd be the 3rd worst on our team, only slightly ahead of Alex and Josh). Mason, on the other hand, has dominated against far superior competition. Mason plays more minutes, has a higher usage rate, better efficiency, rebounds much better on both ends, draws more fouls, and blocks more shots. He even has a better free throw shooting percentage, despite his ongoing regression towards his historial perforamance rate. To put it bluntly, Mason is better than JMM by a wide margin in every meaningful facet of the game. It's not even close.

But also - Jackson Simmons has played extremely well, albeit in limited minutes. His ORtg is an other-worldly 132.9, because he makes his twos, draws fouls, makes free throws, and doesn't turn the ball over. He is in no way UNC's version of Todd Z. If anything, I would say Simmons is under-utilized and should play significantly more minutes.

To me, that's the biggest problem with UNC. It's mid-January, and Roy still hasn't figured out who his best players are. He is still starting Dexter Strickland, despite the fact that PJ Hairston is a much better player. Reggie Bullock, who is clearly their best player, has only played 66.6% of the team's minutes so far (by way of comparison, Mason is our best player, and has played 85% of our minutes so far). Desmond Hubert, who usually starts, has played only 28.5% of their minutes (if he's good enough to start, why isn't he good enough to play more than 1/4 of the game).

I recently ran a scatterplot of minutes played vs. PER for both UNC and Duke. Ours has a nicely upward sloping line and a reasonably tight distribution (p=0.55). UNC's is literally a mess of dots with no meaningful correlation at all and a line that slopes slightly downward. Ours looks like intelligent distribution of minutes, theirs looks like a Rorschach test.

Don't over analyze the point I was making. I was in no way suggesting that McAdoo is anywhere near the caliber of Mason. (He isn't). I also recognize that Simmons is a better skilled player than Todd, though both are similar in the type of offers they had on the table before deciding it would be more fun to sit on the bench at an elite D1 school. All you say above is accurate, but I was not making a case against anything you stated. I was simply making a point about Roy, and using Duke as the example due to being more familiar with Duke than other teams in the country.

The real point I was making there, is it speaks volumes about the state of UNC's post play and post players, that Roy left McAdoo on the bench for the final 5 minutes of a road game, with the game hanging in the balance, and instead stuck with Simmons, who was basically put on the team as a quality practice player. It worked out and they won the game. But, if the other post guys, including the supposed star of the bunch, are so bad that Roy feels the need to go with Simmons in a game like that, it spells trouble down the road against quality teams. That was my point. Sorry if that did not resonate.

[JasonEvans]

James Michael McAdoo is a collosal disappointment that should have gone pro last year. JMM would have been a top 10 pick, a level he's likely to never see again (on every draft board last year, he was the second highest projected pick from UNC after H. Barnes). The thing is, he played so sparingly last year that no one realized he actually isn't very good. This year, there's no hiding it, as his 93.7 offensive efficiency rating will attest (if he was on our roster, he'd be the 3rd worst on our team, only slightly ahead of Alex and Josh).

While most of us would heartily agree with your assessment of JMM's lousy year, it seems some NBADraft projections are not quite in full agreement. Many folks still see JMM as a mid-first rounder. While that is a bit worse than he would have done last year, it is not the free-fall that his play this year would seem to indicate.

NBADraft,net - Mason #15, JMM #16
HoopsHype - Mason #11, JMM #20
ESPN/Chad Forde - Mason #12, JMM #20
DraftExpress - Mason #11, JMM #17

To be honest, I am surprised JMM has stayed that high in the draft pecking order. I would not be at all surprised to see him continue to drop over the next couple months unless he turns his game around a bit.

A decent comparison might be Josh McRoberts. Josh was extremely highly regarded by the NBA after a freshman campaign in which he was merely asked to be one of several players to complement the outstanding senior leadership of JJ and Shelden. Most draft experts felt McBob would be a mid-late lottery pick if he had come out. He chose to stay and had a decent, but quite unspectacular soph season where he struggled taking on a larger leadership role at Duke. After his soph campaign, he turned pro. His draft stock had slipped, but most still saw him as a mid-late first round pick.

Instead, on draft day he slipped all the way into the 2nd round, going with the 7th pick of the 2nd round. Josh struggled early in his NBA career but has developed into a solid reserve and sometimes starter over the past few seasons. He's a decent backup PF-type, currently earning $3 million/season.

I won't be at all surprised if JMM follows a similar path.

-Jason "I am not saying JMM and Josh are similar players, just that their career arcs seem somewhat similar" Evans

[Des Esseintes]

While most of us would heartily agree with your assessment of JMM's lousy year, it seems some NBADraft projections are not quite in full agreement. Many folks still see JMM as a mid-first rounder. While that is a bit worse than he would have done last year, it is not the free-fall that his play this year would seem to indicate.

NBADraft,net - Mason #15, JMM #16
HoopsHype - Mason #11, JMM #20
ESPN/Chad Forde - Mason #12, JMM #20
DraftExpress - Mason #11, JMM #17

To be honest, I am surprised JMM has stayed that high in the draft pecking order. I would not be at all surprised to see him continue to drop over the next couple months unless he turns his game around a bit.

A decent comparison might be Josh McRoberts. Josh was extremely highly regarded by the NBA after a freshman campaign in which he was merely asked to be one of several players to complement the outstanding senior leadership of JJ and Shelden. Most draft experts felt McBob would be a mid-late lottery pick if he had come out. He chose to stay and had a decent, but quite unspectacular soph season where he struggled taking on a larger leadership role at Duke. After his soph campaign, he turned pro. His draft stock had slipped, but most still saw him as a mid-late first round pick.

Instead, on draft day he slipped all the way into the 2nd round, going with the 7th pick of the 2nd round. Josh struggled early in his NBA career but has developed into a solid reserve and sometimes starter over the past few seasons. He's a decent backup PF-type, currently earning $3 million/season.

I won't be at all surprised if JMM follows a similar path.

-Jason "I am not saying JMM and Josh are similar players, just that their career arcs seem somewhat similar" Evans

And--not that you are saying otherwise--for the most part, Josh was drafted where he should have been. He's stuck around in the NBA, and many second rounders do not even make their initial team, so you could argue a late first round pick might have been deserved. Still, the revision of his stock appears largely correct.

[moonpie23]

meanwhile....duke gets stomped and unc seems to be putting it together...

[CDu]

meanwhile....duke gets stomped and unc seems to be putting it together...

To be fair, since losing to Miami, UNC has beaten a bad FSU team, a bad Maryland team (at home), and a bad Ga Tech team (at home). I'd hardly call that "putting it together." More accurately, I'd say that they're playing about the same as always. The difference is that they aren't playing a team as organized as UVa or a team as talented as Miami.

This weekend will be UNC's first real test since their Miami loss. If they can keep it close against NC State, THEN I'll say they are putting it together.

[killerleft]

To be fair, since losing to Miami, UNC has beaten a bad FSU team, a bad Maryland team (at home), and a bad Ga Tech team (at home). I'd hardly call that "putting it together." More accurately, I'd say that they're playing about the same as always. The difference is that they aren't playing a team as organized as UVa or a team as talented as Miami.

This weekend will be UNC's first real test since their Miami loss. If they can keep it close against NC State, THEN I'll say they are putting it together.

I tihnk we can agree that Duke is, what, "pulling it apart"? Coach K's got some hard work ahead of him. Thankfully, he's also got a history of putting "Humpty-Dumpty" together again. Hey, there's a Buck Owens song in there somewhere!

[oldnavy]

To be fair, since losing to Miami, UNC has beaten a bad FSU team, a bad Maryland team (at home), and a bad Ga Tech team (at home). I'd hardly call that "putting it together." More accurately, I'd say that they're playing about the same as always. The difference is that they aren't playing a team as organized as UVa or a team as talented as Miami.

This weekend will be UNC's first real test since their Miami loss. If they can keep it close against NC State, THEN I'll say they are putting it together.

I agree, but they are winning and winning breads confidence and confidence is what you want a young team like UNC to have. I listened to the UNC game on my way home last night, and it 'sounded' like they are still playing spotty, but are having 'ah ha' moments like PJ Hairstons dunk and those can become infectious.

(note, Montross is not bad, but I can do without Jones whateverhisnameis). It was funny to listen to them call the game, because they called it like UNC played it... one moment they were talking about the dumb turnovers, the next about how much fun it was to watch them play... they even called the game helter skelter and sloppy, and used the term weird once.

I am hoping for a NCSU beatdown this weekend, but I would not be surprised to see NCSU roll over AGAIN for UNC...

My how things have changed in such a few short weeks.

The good news is that things can change in a few short weeks!!