Top 5 Movies of Winter

[CameronBornAndBred]

I was very happy to see that Lincoln got a boost while Django had a sizable (but expected) drop. Les Mis is doomed to not be a contender.

[JasonEvans]

It isn't that big a deal, but Universal really over-estimated how many people would see Les Mis on Sunday. The actual numbers that came out today show the film making about $450k less than originally estimated on Sunday. In the grande scheme of things, it doesn't really matter that much. I will admit that when I first saw the weekend numbers I was surprised at how close Les Mis was to Django and it made me think there might be a chance for Les Mis to rebound and have longer legs than Django. Seeing the real number, I find that less likely.

Here are the up-to-date standings with the actual Sunday numbers included:

1. Skyfall - $299,363,000
2. Twilight:BD2 - $290,175,000
3. The Hobbit - $278,124,000
4. Wreck-it Ralph - $179,372,000
5. Lincoln - $152,579,000
6. Django - $125,399,000
7. Les Mis - $119,206,000
8. Rise Guardians - $98,685,000
9. Life of Pi - $94,781,000
10. Flight - $92,745,000

-Jason "$27.2 mil between Lincoln and Django... the spread a week ago was $37.5 mil" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

It doesn't help Jason any in our poll, but he was not wrong in thinking that Pi would bring in the bucks. Just not American bucks.

The 11 Oscar nominations claimed by "The Life of Pi" might have been surprising, but its success at the global box office -- and the fact it will turn a significant profit -- is stunning to many people.
Director Ang Lee's lyrical epic has taken in $453 million at the worldwide box office since opening on Nov. 21. It's about to hit $100 million in the U.S., but the vast majority of that total -- $357 million -- has come from overseas.

http://movies.msn.com/movies/article.aspx?news=785061

[JasonEvans]

It doesn't help Jason any in our poll, but he was not wrong in thinking that Pi would bring in the bucks. Just not American bucks.

http://movies.msn.com/movies/article.aspx?news=785061

Thanks, but that is what I get for thinking a deeply spiritual story about Indian characters would play well in America. Ha! I knew I was picking waaaay against the grain when I went with Life of Pi. Several boxoffice predictors I am aware of had pegged it to make around $50 million in total boxoffice. So, the $100 mil it is approaching is a huge surprise. But not enough of a surprise to really give it a chance in our contest.

It is worth noting that I also thought Lincoln had almost no chance as the American people generally shy away from historical non-fiction. WRONG!

I was right about a lot of other stuff, but wrong about the ones that really mattered this season.

-Jason "4 for 5... I can never do better than 4 for 5!!" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

Django has 2 weeks to close a $20mil gap between it and Lincoln, which is about the same difference between Lincoln and W-I-R. I am pleasantly surprised that Lincoln has done so well; I wasn't expecting over 160.

[JasonEvans]

At the start of this thread, I wrote:

we will start with movies released the first weekend of November and our contest will end the weekend of Feb 1-3.

So, we have one weekend left and it is pretty clear that we know the Top 5. Most years $150 million gets you into the #5 spot in the Winter, but that is not going to be the case this year as Django is going to make $150 mil+ but will finish #6.

This weekend, Django made a little over $5 mil and now stands at $146.2 mil in total. But, Lincoln made $3.8 mil to bring its total to $167.0 mil. Django keeps on creeping closer, but I think the simple reality is that Django is not going to catch Lincoln, even if we allowed this contest to go on for another month.

Here are the $100 mil films, in order, with one week to go:

1. Skyfall - $302 mil (approx, no final weekend numbers yet)
2. Hobbit - $293.2 mil
3. Twilight 5 - $291.0 mil
4. Wreck-it Ralph - $182.4 mil
5. Lincoln - $167.0 mil
6. Django - $146.2 mil
7. Les Mis - $137.2 mil
8. Life of Pi - $103.4 mil
9. Guardians - $100.2 mil

-Jason "congrats to the Lincoln-backers who I poo-pooed many moons ago... but what do I know?" Evans

[davekay1971]

-Jason "congrats to the Lincoln-backers who I poo-pooed many moons ago... but what do I know?" Evans

Jeez, Jason, don't you know that American audiences ALWAYS back historical dramas at the box office? Throw them a guy in constume in a story revolving around constitutional issues from 150 years ago and it's box office gold, every time.

PS: should it restore my faith in America that Lincoln outperformed Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter?

[JasonEvans]

Jeez, Jason, don't you know that American audiences ALWAYS back historical dramas at the box office? Throw them a guy in constume in a story revolving around constitutional issues from 150 years ago and it's box office gold, every time.

I hear they are working on a prequel -- "Purchase" about Thomas Jefferson's angst over whether he was constitutionally allowed to buy Louisiana from the French. Ohhhh! I hear Daniel Day-Lewis is being cast as London-based banker Francis Bering, the man who helped make the financing of the purchase a reality even though the money was used by Napoleon to pay for his war with England.

-Jason "coming to theaters and school classrooms this November!" Evans

[dpslaw]

I almost let you talk me out of Lincoln, Jason. But I had faith in Spielberg. And everyone knows about Lincoln's long legs!

It appears that four of us will go five for five; is that correct?

[CameronBornAndBred]

Well I copied the top 10 movies currently in the theaters and all of them were contenders in the poll at the beginning of the contest. Obviously Skyfall is missing from the list. I took a stab with my 2 guesses (WIR and Lincoln) and got lucky. I have a feeling that if it had not been for the Newtown tragedy Django would have done better and challenged more.


Weekend Box Office Chart

Last Weekend Jan 25-Jan 27 Jan 18-Jan 20 Jan 11-Jan 13 Jan 04-Jan 06 Dec 28-Dec 30 Dec 21-Dec 23 Dec 14-Dec 16 Dec 07-Dec 09 Nov 30-Dec 02 Nov 23-Nov 25 Nov 16-Nov 18 Nov 09-Nov 11 Nov 02-Nov 04 Oct 26-Oct 28 << Previous Week

This Week	Last Week	T-Meter	Title	Weeks Released	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	Theater Average	# Of Theaters
12	12	65%	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	8	$1.9M	$296.2M	$1.5k	1300
29	31	48%	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2	12	$0.1M	$291.3M	$714	189
22	23	87%	Wreck-it Ralph	14	$0.6M	$183.2M	$878	660
10	11	90%	Lincoln	12	$2.4M	$170.8M	$1.4k	1756
8	6	88%	Django Unchained	6	$3.0M	$151.0M	$1.7k	1777
9	9	70%	Les Misérables	6	$2.4M	$141.5M	$1.3k	1848
11	18	96%	Argo	17	$2.1M	$120.4M	$2.2k	935
14	14	88%	Life of Pi	11	$1.8M	$106.1M	$2.0k	902
26	27	74%	Rise of the Guardians	11	$0.3M	$100.5M	$833	307
30	32	78%	Flight	14	$0.1M	$93.6M	$570	200