USA MBB: USA 119, Australia 86 (Round of 8)

[Newton_14]

USA vs Australia quarterfinal match up. Aug 8th, 5:15pm Eastern

The real games start! I think it important that the guys come out of the gate balling and playing DUKE DEFENSE! Seriously. They need to break the slow start habit now. I take no games for granted, so not even thinking about the semi's until this game has been won. I hope the guys grasp the stakes of "one and done" play and shine from the opening tip.

We need strong, frenetic defense, and lots of Lebron posting and driving early on. Then let the 3 ball kick in. Important too, for Chandler to stay out of foul trouble.

[awhom111]

Australia has played all of the teams tough in their group. There a few familiar names or players you may remember from the past. Recently, they have gone with the two-headed St. Mary's point guard lineup of Patrick Mills and Matthew Dellavedova. I do not really know how much they will be able to stick with that given the height mismatch that they will face in the backcourt. Joe Ingles is the primary scoring option on the wing and David Andersen is the key man inside.

[Olympic Fan]

In a sense, this is the single most important game in the Olympics.

A loss in the prelims would have been embarrassing, but wouldn't have stopped the USA from reaching the medal round.

A loss in the finals would still mean the silver medal. A loss Friday in the semifinals would still leave the team with a chance to win the third place game and tke bronze.

But a loss to the Aussies today and the USA goes home with nothing -- it's the one true one-and-done game of the Olympics.

[flyingdutchdevil]

In a sense, this is the single most important game in the Olympics.

A loss in the prelims would have been embarrassing, but wouldn't have stopped the USA from reaching the medal round.

A loss in the finals would still mean the silver medal. A loss Friday in the semifinals would still leave the team with a chance to win the third place game and tke bronze.

But a loss to the Aussies today and the USA goes home with nothing -- it's the one true one-and-done game of the Olympics.

It's also against Australia, a team that lacks size and has a third of the athleticism of the US. Plus, the team is over-reliant on Patty Mills, who is only shooting 42% from the floor against teams without true defensive stoppers. Against Kobe / Westbrook / Iggy, he's gonna struggle.

The semis and finals will be more competitive, but I really don't see the US winning this game by less than 20. They're gonna blow Australia out of the water.

[COYS]

It's also against Australia, a team that lacks size and has a third of the athleticism of the US. Plus, the team is over-reliant on Patty Mills, who is only shooting 42% from the floor against teams without true defensive stoppers. Against Kobe / Westbrook / Iggy, he's gonna struggle.

The semis and finals will be more competitive, but I really don't see the US winning this game by less than 20. They're gonna blow Australia out of the water.

Obviously, weird things can happen, but I agree with this analysis. While K and the rest of Team USA woin't be taking Australia for granted (remember, Australia pushed the USA in a friendly a few years back), a focused Team USA should be able to beat the Aussies handily, even if the USA doesn't play their best game. That being said, I will be curious to see how the USA plays on the defensive side of the ball. It should be no problem to outscore Australia, but will the guys stay focused on the defensive end? With decent play on D, the USA can outscore anyone in the field. Today's game is a good chance to re-commit to defense.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Obviously, weird things can happen, but I agree with this analysis. While K and the rest of Team USA woin't be taking Australia for granted (remember, Australia pushed the USA in a friendly a few years back), a focused Team USA should be able to beat the Aussies handily, even if the USA doesn't play their best game. That being said, I will be curious to see how the USA plays on the defensive side of the ball. It should be no problem to outscore Australia, but will the guys stay focused on the defensive end? With decent play on D, the USA can outscore anyone in the field. Today's game is a good chance to re-commit to defense.

I think Coach K will have the US playing great D for the first 2 quarters (maybe 1.5 quarters). But if the US is up by 20 by half (can certainly happen), then I just don't see the US playing any legitimate defense. On the other hand, the players that Coach K uses when the US is up by a ton are some of the best defensive players: Iggy, Davis, and Westbrook. In this game, considering the urgency of one-and-done, I'd be more interested in seeing the offense as I think the defense will come out guns blazing.

[Olympic Fan]

Just to be clear, I wasn't arguing that Australia would give us our toughest game or be our most difficult matchup ... just that the quarterfinal game in the medal round -- not matter who the opponent -- is the only real medal/no medal sudden death game we'll face.

I think there is little chance that we lose, but if the miracle happened, it would be the single most disastrous loss possible.

[UrinalCake]

Something occurred to me when considering the start of the one-and-done games. The 12 guys on the roster have played a total of 15 seasons in college:

Williams 3
Harden, Iguodala, Paul, Westbrook 2
Anthony, Davis, Durant, Love 1
Bryant, Chandler, James 0

Which means these guys don't have a lot of experience in the one-and-done format. I don't know how many elimination games in the playoffs they have under their belts, and I guess all but Harden and Davis have played for the National team before, but for the most part it will be a different kind of pressure. I don't expect them to overlook Australia, but if things are tight at halftime (as they have been for many games) then it could get interesting.

[Monmouth77]

Something occurred to me when considering the start of the one-and-done games. The 12 guys on the roster have played a total of 15 seasons in college:

Williams 3
Harden, Iguodala, Paul, Westbrook 2
Anthony, Davis, Durant, Love 1
Bryant, Chandler, James 0

Which means these guys don't have a lot of experience in the one-and-done format. I don't know how many elimination games in the playoffs they have under their belts, and I guess all but Harden and Davis have played for the National team before, but for the most part it will be a different kind of pressure. I don't expect them to overlook Australia, but if things are tight at halftime (as they have been for many games) then it could get interesting.

That's an interesting observation. Also interesting, though, is that many of the players with college experience, short as their careers may have been, were leaders on teams that excelled in the NCAA's one-and-done format.

Davis and Anthony both led their teams to a title as freshmen, and Love and Westbrook fueled runs to the Final Four. And obviously Deron Williams played in a great National Championship game and came up just short.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Something occurred to me when considering the start of the one-and-done games. The 12 guys on the roster have played a total of 15 seasons in college:

Williams 3
Harden, Iguodala, Paul, Westbrook 2
Anthony, Davis, Durant, Love 1
Bryant, Chandler, James 0

Which means these guys don't have a lot of experience in the one-and-done format. I don't know how many elimination games in the playoffs they have under their belts, and I guess all but Harden and Davis have played for the National team before, but for the most part it will be a different kind of pressure. I don't expect them to overlook Australia, but if things are tight at halftime (as they have been for many games) then it could get interesting.

While the college years don't rack up, the Olympic experience (5 Olympic appearances across the team with Lebron and Melo having two each) and playoff experience certainly exists. With the exception of Love and Davis, I believe that every player on this team has been to a game 7 in the playoffs, which is, in essence, the same as a one-and-done.

I feel bad for Australia - they're gonna get hit so hard. You heard it hear first: USA by 37 points.

[NSDukeFan]

Just to be clear, I wasn't arguing that Australia would give us our toughest game or be our most difficult matchup ... just that the quarterfinal game in the medal round -- not matter who the opponent -- is the only real medal/no medal sudden death game we'll face.

I think there is little chance that we lose, but if the miracle happened, it would be the single most disastrous loss possible.

This may be the only real single elimination medal/ no medal game, but I would argue that with gold as the only satisfactory result for this team, they are all single elimination games from now on.

A couple of the other exciting things about this team are that the fourth and fifth leading scorers in the NBA (Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook) are coming off the bench and are guys that I find very fun to watch. I believe the most exciting pairing off the bench is Westbrook and Iguodala. They seem like the perfect bench players for this team as they tend to add some energy and defensive pressure when they come on the bench and both are very good at finishing at the hoop in electric fashion.

I understand Westbrook might make some poor decisions at times, but I don't know if there is anyone (besides LeBron) who is more exciting to watch. I like the pressure he applies defensively as well as his great driving abilities. I now have a better understanding of why he may have had some trouble yielding to Durant at times. It might be because he is one of the best players in the world and may have trouble yielding to anyone, even the second best player in the world.

[Acymetric]

Wow I wish the NBC online feed had commentary. Blows me away that it doesn't. Still, can't wait for this game! I haven't been able to watch the US play yet this Olympics and its killing me.

[CDu]

It's also against Australia, a team that lacks size and has a third of the athleticism of the US. Plus, the team is over-reliant on Patty Mills, who is only shooting 42% from the floor against teams without true defensive stoppers. Against Kobe / Westbrook / Iggy, he's gonna struggle.

The semis and finals will be more competitive, but I really don't see the US winning this game by less than 20. They're gonna blow Australia out of the water.

Actually, Australia fields a pretty big team. They start:
David Andersen (6'11", 245)
Matt Nielsen (6'10", 230)
Joe Ingles (6'8", 220)

And they bring the following guys off the bench:
Chris Anstey (7'0", 255)
Aleksandar Maric (7'0", 275)
Mark Worthington (6'8", 230)
Aron Baynes (6'10", 210)

They definitely don't have the athleticism, depth, or skill that the US has, but they do have two creative playmakers (Mills and Dellavedova) and a few good shooters.

We should win handily (up 10 right now in the 2nd quarter). But they are big, scrappy, and have playmakers. It's not a walkover.

[COYS]

USA up by 14 at the half. The defense hasn't been spectacular, but it's been good enough to hold the Aussies to 42 points, although that number has been helped by the USA's excellent free throw defense (the Aussies shooting only 52.9% from the charity stripe).

Offensively, drive n' kick has been the name of the game, with some more hot shooting from outside from Durant and Williams mixed in with a few displays of interior passing. Lebron has been doing his thing as an orchestrator, making a good number of amazing passes. Perhaps his best sequence came late in the 2nd when he made a patented Lebron chase-down block on a Patty Mills breakaway layup. He then sprints back to half court and receives a pass from someone (I forgot who it was) then instantly fired a laser pass to Love for the dunk. The ball never touched the floor to travel the entire length of the court and it was Lebron's hustle for the dunk, then hustle back to midcourt, followed by his court awareness that made that play possible. Truly impressive stuff.

Edit: I just saw a replay of that sequence. Iqgy got the rebound after the Lebron block. Iggy passed it to Paul 3/4ths of the way down the court who passed it to Lebron who had already sprinted to just past half court who then fired it to Love.

[NSDukeFan]

Wow I wish the NBC online feed had commentary. Blows me away that it doesn't. Still, can't wait for this game! I haven't been able to watch the US play yet this Olympics and its killing me.

I am getting a world feed and don't miss the commentary at all. I would say that half the commentators don't add that much to my viewing pleasure.

[burnspbesq]

11-0 run to start the second half. Kobe is killing us.

[CDu]

By the way, LeBron James is quickly putting to bed the arguments about his clutchness. He's just an otherworldly player, and he is regularly imposing his will on these games when the team needs it.

[hurleyfor3]

This feels like when we go somewhere like VPI or Miami and maintain a steady three or four possession lead, not safe but the opponent isn't playing well enough to make a run.

We should not be losing to Australia in anything. Except for kangaroo racing, boomerang toss and Is This A Knife.

[CDu]

This feels like when we go somewhere like VPI or Miami and maintain a steady three or four possession lead, not safe but the opponent isn't playing well enough to make a run.

We should not be losing to Australia in anything. Except for kangaroo racing, boomerang toss and Is This A Knife.

I'll add swimming (they are usually pretty good in the pool), rugby, Aussie football, surfing, cricket, sailing, and (sometimes) golf.

That said, like the old days of Duke, there is likely to be a stretch where our skill and athleticism is just going to overwhelm the opponent. That just happened over about a few-minute stretch. We have pushed this from a 10 point game to a 29 point game in a hurry. This thing is over. On to the medal rounds for the USA.

[CDu]

Opponent plays scrappy and physically and crowds the lane. Hangs around for a while. But eventually, the cream rises to the top. The US simply had too much skill, athleticism, and depth for the Aussies. Frankly, that's going to be the case against almost every opponent in this tournament. It's going to take a horrible shooting night against Argentina for us not to make the finals.