I have 6 films I am considering for my Top 5... I won't tell you which. I really think there are only 2 mortal locks. Most years there are more than that.
-Jason "I'll give you a hint, the two mortal locks both involve superheroes" Evans
Avengers
Dark Shadows
Battleship
Men in Black 3
Snow White and the Huntsman
Prometheus
Madagascar 3
Brave
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter
GI Joe II
Amazing Spider-Man
Ice Age: Continental Drift
Dark Knight Rises
Total Recall
The Bourne Legacy
Ok people, you know how this works!
Vote for your 5 picks for the films that will earn the most money at the domestic boxoffice of the summer. Please vote for 5! No more, no less! If you go 4-for-4, you do not beat the person who went 4-for-5. Your goal is to get all 5 of the films right.
You can pick any film released between May 1 and Sept 1. If it is obvious that the contest is over by September 1, then we will close the contest early, but, if it is close, we will consider boxoffice totals all the way through Sunday September 30th. I doubt it will take that long to figure out our top 5.
Here are the films I am putting in the poll. Please post your picks and discuss. If you want to vote for some other film that is not in the poll, just put that in a post.
Avengers
Dark Shadows
Battleship
Men In Black 3
Snow White and the Huntsman
Prometheus
Madagascar 3
Brave
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter
GI Joe II
Amazing Spider-Man
Ice Age: Continental Drift
Dark Knight Rises
Total Recall
The Bourne Legacy
I considered but did not include the following films. If you want to vote for them, feel free:
Rock of Ages
Ted
The Dictator
What to Expect When You Are Expecting
That's My Boy
Neighborhood Watch
The Expendables 2
Have fun!
-Jason "all picks must be in by Noon on May 3rd" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
I have 6 films I am considering for my Top 5... I won't tell you which. I really think there are only 2 mortal locks. Most years there are more than that.
-Jason "I'll give you a hint, the two mortal locks both involve superheroes" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
I went with (in order of prediction top to bottom)
Dark Knight Rises
Brave
MIB3
Prometheus
Battleship
I'm pretty happy with my top four; the fifth one is a total tossup. Out of country reviews for Battleship say it's mindless eye candy, so that's the making of a perfect summer blockbuster. There is little chance that DKR does not finish in the top 5, a long awaited Pixar film also is a sure fire winner. MIB3 has been a long time coming, and it looks fun, so I think it's safe. Prometheus is another winner in my mind too...it looks like it oozes the essence of the classic Alien movies (even though it's only related to them, not a prequel).
I know Avengers will do well, I just don't see it as top 5, but it will be close. The rest...meh. I'm sure they'll do well enough but I get that "I'll wait for it on DVD" feeling with them.
Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."
My top 5 are:
Dark Knight Rises
Avengers
Amazing Spider Man
Brave
MiB3
I think the 3 superhero movies and the Pixar movie are locks. The 5th one is up for grabs so I went with the franchise anchored by Will Smith.
My top 5:
Avengers
Dark Knight Rises
Amazing Spider Man
MiB3
Madagascar 3
3 super hero movies, a popular franchise that has been gone for awhile, and a popular kids movie.
Does MiB come out over the 4th of July?
There was a time when the Fresh Prince OWNED that weekend!
It generally takes around $220 mil or so to make the Top 5 of summer. I tell you what. Lets you and I make a bet.
I bet that Avengers is at $200 million after its second weekend. Care to take the other side of that action?
-Jason "Avengers is a mortal lock. It will make more than $300 mil. Joss Whedon is too good a director and there is too much pent up excitement over this film" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Avengers- Sequel/derivative
Dark Shadows - Reboot of 70s TV
Battleship - Derived from 70s board (bored?) game
Men In Black 3- Sequel few were clamoring for
Snow White and the Huntsman - Reboot of Disney classic, derivative of current TV show
Prometheus - Prequel? - based on setting of Alien trilogy
Madagascar 3 - Sequel
Brave - Wait, dare I say ORIGINAL? But VERY familiar.
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter - An original take on Vampire movies
GI Joe II - Sequel
Amazing Spider-Man - Reboot
Ice Age: Continental Drift - Sequel
Dark Knight Rises - Sequel to reboot
Total Recall - Reboot
The Bourne Legacy - Reboot/sequel (rebourne?)
Sigh. Hollywood.
I have no doubt that it will rack up the dough, hell it's already listed for pre-sales on the theaters here, but it's opening so early. (I know, it's a great weekend, past Spideys have gobbled it up.) So it will have to sit at the top of the heap all summer. It's easily possible, but the season is long. Battleship may bomb, but I'm expecting it to have a similar reaction that Transformers got and that movie didn't do so shabbily either, so it's my dark-horse smash of the summer.
Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."
While I agree -- and have moaned about the lack of invention myself in the past -- I would suggest that there are some fairly original ideas out there. C'mon -- Abe Lincoln as a vampire killer ... that's got to count as a fresh take on an old genre. Now, next summer when you have George Washington vs. the Mummy and Franklin Roosevelt taking on the Werewolves-- THAT will be worth complaining about.
I think summer is becoming more and more a time for safe films. We see the imaginative stuff in the fall and winter.
There are some different films this summer, but they don't make the blockbuster list. I am looking forward to Lincoln vs. the vampires, but I don't think it makes $200. I will definitely see Woody Allen's To Rome With Love. I'm not interested but Rock of Ages, People Like Us and Your Sister's Sister are all original stories. Sleeper comedy hit: What to Exopect When You're Expecting. There's Wes Anderson's Moonrise Kingdon and John Madden's The Best Exotoc Marigold Hotel. And not sure I want to see a movie about a male stripper, but Steven Soderberg's Magic Mike is getting some buzz. Not sure about Seeking a Friend for the End of the World, but I'm up for seeing Keira Knightly in a comedy about the end of the world.
I join your sigh though in the sense that all those interesting films will be buried at the box office by the sequals and comic book movies.
For the record, I think there are two mortal locks for the top five: Avengers and Dark Knight. After that, I voted for MiB3 (just on the strength of the franchise), Prometheus and Battleship (ugh!). Maybe the kiddies can push Brave or Madagascar into the $200 million range, but I'm not counting on it. I'm really interested in the re-boots -- Spiderman, Total Recall and Bourne ... not having the original stas will -- I think -- keep them out of the top five.
But I haven't won one of these yet, so don't go by me.
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Here are my top five:
Dark Knight
Avengers
Brave
Prometheus
Battleship
Dark Knight and Avengers could easily swap places, but absence makes the heart grow fonder, which is why I've got DK as my #1.
You definitely need a kids movie and this one is the freshest of the bunch.
Prometheus seems like a thinking man's sci-fi movie. The 1st week will be extremely important for this flick, if it gets people talking the numbers will be good.
Battleship definitely seems like a spin on Transformers and those movies have done quite well. I realize I'm taking a huge gamble going against the Spidey flick, but I have a feeling a reboot at this point in time won't sit well with the fans, especially if they are toning down the action.
Am I the only one who sees 3 absolute locks? Avengers, Dark Knight and Spider Man.
The first two I think are obvious to everybody but why not Spidey? He will get the same audience plus the kids all love Spider Man so he gets that draw as well. I do not think he will top the other two but I think he def gets top 5 easy.
I am definitely considering Spidey. But, history tells us that reboots typically don't do quite as well as their predecessors. Look at Batman Begins ($205 mil), X-Men: First Class ($146 mil), and Superman Returns ($200 mil) in just the past few years. They did well, but not as well as most of the previous movies in those franchises.
Spidey also faces the daunting task of Dark Knight Rises coming out just 2 weeks after Spidey's release. DKR is going to suck all the superhero air out of the market so Spidey has a limited time-frame in which to amass it's millions. Make no mistake, I think it will do quite well, but I wanted to explain why some folks might be skeptical.
-Jason "Like I said, it is definitely under consideration for my Top 5 though" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
I feel confident about Avengers, Brave, and Dark Knight Rises. After that it got tough.
Prometheus is in my top 5, and it looks very promising. Will the relatively more adult fare be able to outsell kids wanting to see the likes of Battleship?
After that it came down to which reboot would catch on.
Jeremy Renner and the Bourne series are, separately, pretty popular these days. The first trailer didn't do a whole lot for me, but with the right marketing I think Renner, in this role and this story, could do well.
Spider Man tempted me...but unlike Bourne I just don't have the feeling that the 3rd Spidey installment left people craving another chapter in the story. In addition, this is really another retelling of the start of the Spidey story, not terribly long after a really masterful movie basically doing the same general story. I have a nagging feeling that Spidey may be a big miss this time around.
I see a lot of people voted for MIB3. Will Smith has undeniable star power and box office draw...but MIB is another franchise that no one was really asking to have another round with. MIB was a really good, fun movie...but it was a long time ago. MIB2 was a stinker...a franchise killer. MIB3 may ride into the top 5 on Will Smith's star power alone, but I it'll be Smith, not the MIB name, that gets it there.
Why hasn't Smith done a movie in 4 years? Hancock wasn't THAT bad
Does he really still have "star power" with respect to current moviegoiers, 12 -20 year olds?
I see that his "come-back" will include three MORE sequels, Bad Boys III, Hancock 2, and I Robot 2.
I PRAY there won't be a Wild, Wild West 2! Although if it includes Salma Hayek - I'm on board.
(in no particular order)
Avengers
MIB3
Madagascar 3
Ice Age II
Dark Knight
This one-ups last years top 5 which were all sequels by all being the third movie in a series --- if you count Avengers as sort of the third movie in the Ironman series.
I think you could play that against the field and still be close to even odds in Vegas.
I got, in no particular order:
Dark Knight
Avengers
Spidey
MiB3
Prometheus
I think MiB3 and Prometheus will be the lower of the 5...I agree with others that believe that Dark Knight, Avengers and Spidey are locks for the Top 5. The first movie of the last Spider Man trilogy is still in the Top 10 highest grossing ever ($403M) and the other two are 15th (Spidey 2 - $373M) and 22nd (Spidey 3 - $336M). I think that this reboot will approach the $300M mark and put it safely into the Top 5 of the summer.
Here are the release dates:
Avengers May 4
Dark Shadows May 11
Battleship May 18
Men In Black 3 May 25
Snow White and the Huntsman June 1
Prometheus June 8
Madagascar 3 June 8
Brave June 22
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter June 22
GI Joe II June 29
Amazing Spider-Man July 3
Ice Age: Continental Drift July 13
Dark Knight Rises July 20
Total Recall Aug 3
The Bourne Legacy Aug 3
Rock of Ages June 15
Ted July 13
The Dictator May 18
What to Expect When You Are Expecting May 18
That's My Boy June 15
Neighborhood Watch July 27
The Expendables 2 Aug 17
Pirhanna 3DD June 1 - with David Hasselhoff and Gary Busey
I'll go with:
Avengers - more recent - more momentum - no competition
Dark Knight - better movie than Avengers, but darker, more adult
Ice Age: Continental Drift - the force of a glacier
Madagascar 3 - can't be Ben Stiller, but too much brand recognition
I think these are fairly set in stone ...
#5 Spiderman (over Prometheus) primarily because of the July 4 holiday release with no competition.
Don't think Brave will make it because of female protagonist and competition from a lot of movies around that weekend.
Total Recall and Bourne might steal viewers from each other.
Battleship is sandwiched between Avengers and MiB. Taylor Kitsch goes down with the ship, his second major flop of the year.
I hear they almost had Tara Reid in Pirhanna 3DD. With Hasselhoff and Busey, the "Making of" video would have passed for a Christopher Guest mockumentary.