Polls 2/13/12

[Olympic Fan]

It will be interesting to see the new rankings Monday after six of the top 10 teams lost this past week, including two that lost twice.

Duke -- No. 10 in the AP and No. 9 in the Coaches -- will move up. But how far?

Murray State, which was just ahead of Duke in both polls, is certain to drop out of the top 10 after its midweek loss at home to Tennessee State.

Florida, just ahead of Murray State, will drop after losing on the road to kentucky (no shame there) and at home to Tennessee.

Bayler, just ahead of Florida also lost twice -- at Kansas and at home -- big! -- to Missouri.

UNC. next in line, lost to Duke.

Of the top four, Ohio State was the only one to lose.

I suspect the top four next week will be:

1. Kentucky
2. Syracuse
3. Missouri
4. Ohio State

After that, it's anybody's guess. Can Duke climb that high?

My big question is how will the voters rank Duke in relation to Kansas. Big split on the Jayhawks last week -- the AP voters had them seventh (ahead of Duke, Murray State and Florida), while the coaches had them No. 10 (behind that trio). I have no doubt that Kansas -- which had two big wins during the week -- will be No. 5 in the AP poll. But will they leapfrog Duke in the coaches?

And how far up will Michigan State (No. 11 AP and No. 12 in the coaches) soar after a 2-0 week that included a win at Ohio State?

Georgetown (No. 12 in AP and No. 11 in Coaches) didn't have a bad week, but they did lose to 'Cuse in OT.

Anyway, I see Duke no worse than No. 8 in the two polls, but possibly as high as No. 6 in the AP and No. 5 in the coaches.

Not that it matters much, but it will extend the school's streak of top 10 placements to 89 straight weeks. That's still the third-best in NCAA history and closing in on second-place Kentucky (at 91 straight weeks).

[snowdenscold]

Not that it matters much, but it will extend the school's streak of top 10 placements to 89 straight weeks. That's still the third-best in NCAA history and closing in on second-place Kentucky (at 91 straight weeks).

My googling is failing me at this late hour. Is that Kentucky streak current, or from way back? (I assume latter, but am not sure). And who/what/when is first place?

[1 24 90]

My googling is failing me at this late hour. Is that Kentucky streak current, or from way back? (I assume latter, but am not sure). And who/what/when is first place?

I only have my memory as my source at this hour but the longest streak is UCLA back in the day and the Kentucky streak is not current since they would have been out of the Top 10 at some point last year considering they were only a 4 seed in the tourney because of a few road losses during the year.

Just looked at espn and Kentucky was out of the Top 10 prior to the tourney last year as they had 8 losses going into the tourney.

[Grey Devil]

Not that it matters much, but it will extend the school's streak of top 10 placements to 89 straight weeks. That's still the third-best in NCAA history and closing in on second-place Kentucky (at 91 straight weeks).

If what you say is true, given our upcoming schedule and our performance this week (as well as that of others) then it appears likely that we will move into the #2 spot soon. Another bit of data reinforcing Coach K's reputation as the best coach in college basketball history!

Grey Devil

(of course some could still argue that Wooden was better...but probably very few on this board)

[77devil]

Hard to see Duke below 6 in either poll, particularly given the relative SOS, although it's doubtful many voters take SOS into account. Given our uneven performances to date, anywhere between 6 and 10 seems reasonable.

[roywhite]

Is Ohio State running out of gas?

Michigan State 58 Ohio State 48, in Columbus

All 5 starters for tOSU logged more than 30 minutes, with Sullinger and Craft going 40 minutes.
26.4% overall FG and 2-15 from 3-pt for the Buckeyes.

Another Michigan State team that improves as the year goes on...Izzo can coach.

[JasonEvans]

Just so we are clear, Duke's record versus the top 10 will be a very impressive 3-1. There seems to be some notion among many Duke fans that this team is fatally flawed in some ways and that we cannot get very far in the Dance. I would say that our impressive performances against the best teams in the country would indicate otherwise.

The top 10 streak is really impressive -- a remarkable achievement. Pitchfork points for anyone who can figure out who has the second longest active streak. I bet it is significantly shorter than the streak Duke currently has going.

Wait... gonna do it myself (can I give myself pitchfork points?).

Ohio State is at 38 straight weeks in the Top 10, dating back to Feb 15 of 2010.
Carolina is at 16 straight weeks. 14 this year plus 2 at the end of last year. Whatever

I may be wrong, but I don't think there is anyone else who has an active streak beyond this season. Syracuse and Kentucky were both outside the Top 10 at the end of last season.

So, near as I can tell, the list goes:

Duke - 89
Ohio State - 38
UNC - 16
Kentucky, Syracuse - 14

Umm, yeah, we are impressive.

-Jason "ridiculous streak when you think about it... just crazy" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

Good work Jason,

Just to be clear about the longest streaks --

UCLA's record of 155 straight weeks is from the first poll in 1966-67 (they finished out of the rankings, which at the time were just top 10, in 1966) to Jan. 27, 1976 (when they dropped from No. 6 the previous week to No. 12) ... they were back in the top 10 the next week and ran off another 14 straight top 10 weeks before another miss, then another streak of 46 straight top 10 finishes before they finally fell off seriously midway through the 1979-80 season.

You can see why the UCLA program was so highly regarded back in the day!

Kentucky's streak started under Pitino late in the 1993-94 season, when Kentucky climbed from No. 11 to No. 7 on Feb. 21 1994. Then stayed in the top 10 91 streaight weeks until the 1998-99 team dropped from No. 6 to No. 13 on Feb. 22.

Duke previously had a 69 game streak of top 10 finishes in the early 1990s (ended with the 1995 collapse), a 44-game streak in the late 90s (ended when preseason No. 10 Duke suffered back-to-back losses to open the 1999-2000 seasn) and a 67-game top 10 streak that started a few weeks after the 44-game streak ended. Duke was out of the rankings one-week, then had a 38-game top 10 streak.

Indeed, Duke was in the top 10 almost every week since early in the 1997 through the midway point of the 2007 season. They missed five weeks (ranked between 18 and 11) in early 2000 and one week (ranked No, 12) late in 2003. If Duke had done no worse than split with No. 1 UConn and No. 13 Stanford in that opening doubleheader in the Garden (both games were heartbreakers) and either beaten St. John's at home (a 71-70 loss) or not lost to a mediocre UNC team in Chapel Hill late in '03, Duke would have had a longer top 10 streak that UCLA did under Wooden.

You can see why K's program is so impressive in THIS day!

[gam7]

Not that it matters much, but it will extend the school's streak of top 10 placements to 89 straight weeks. That's still the third-best in NCAA history and closing in on second-place Kentucky (at 91 straight weeks).

This is an amazing streak, but it's also a function of how weak the conference has been over the past few years.

[BD80]

Is Ohio State running out of gas?

Michigan State 58 Ohio State 48, in Columbus

All 5 starters for tOSU logged more than 30 minutes, with Sullinger and Craft going 40 minutes.
26.4% overall FG and 2-15 from 3-pt for the Buckeyes.

Another Michigan State team that improves as the year goes on...Izzo can coach.

Can you imagine rooting for a team that relied so heavily on such a short rotation?

What would the second guessers on this board say? (I guess I could use the search function ...)

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This is an amazing streak, but it's also a function of how weak the conference has been over the past few years.

I completely disagree. This streak spans far enough back to encompass some very good ACC teams. If anything, ACC losses this year are more damaging to meaningless polls. When Duke loses to an unranked Miami team, the hit in the polls is much harder than when other ACC teams are in the top 25. Duke's schedule has been the toughest in the nation according to numerous sources.

This amazing streak is a testament to how strong and how consistent K's teams have been - nothing other than that.

[TexHawk]

Bayler, just ahead of Florida also lost twice -- at Kansas and at home -- big! -- to Missouri.

Not to pick nits, but you have that backwards. KU was up by 24 in the 2nd half at Baylor on Wednesday before some last minute garbage buckets made it more respectable.

[budwom]

As incredible as our streaks are, I guess I'm one of the dimwits Jason refers to as not expecting any kind of run in the tournament.

And yesterday's ugly struggle against a very weak opponent did nothing to disabuse me of my (ill-conceived) notion.

I hope I'm proved to be very wrong.

[rsvman]

Ugly struggle? Could be mistaken, but I'm pretty sure we won by 18 points.

[Kedsy]

And yesterday's ugly struggle against a very weak opponent did nothing to disabuse me of my (ill-conceived) notion.

Well, we came out a little cold and got behind 10-3. After that we outscored them 70-45 over the last 33 minutes. Doesn't sound like an "ugly struggle" to me, against a team that may not be strong (130 Pomeroy, 126 Sagarin, 98 RPI) but I certainly wouldn't describe as "very weak."

What sort of performance would have met with your approval?

[budwom]

Approval not required, but thanks for asking.

If you think the word "struggle" is not appropriate, you should also complain to the AP: their official story somehow claimed

that Duke "struggled to separate themselves on the scoreboard until they closed the game with a 13-2 run." But what do they know?

Since Maryland is rated by Sagarin below such stalwarts as North Dakota State and Lehigh, I'll stand by my assessment of the game.

[delfrio]

Not that it matters much, but I agree that the entire first half of the Maryland game was an extremely ugly struggle. We looked much better in the second half, cut down on turnovers, actually hit shots, etc. But the final score is not at all indicative of the kind of game it was. That said, I think we are a reasonable 2 seed right now. We're the kind of team no one hopes to face in the tourney given our potential to get hot, but an early exit wouldn't be entirely unexpected either.

[Greg_Newton]

What's crazy is that we're about to be 3-1 against the top 10, and probably the top 7-8, really. Only one loss outside of the top 25, and that's to a currently projected tournament team.

Funny how after all the grief everyone (myself definitely included) has given this team, the bottom line is that they're very much in the driver's seat for a #1 seed. 2 losses to UNC and/or dropping a few more ACC games would probably kill that chance, but honestly, if you look at everyone's resume at this moment, I'm not sure how Duke wouldn't be a shoo-in.

[77devil]

Just so we are clear, Duke's record versus the top 10 will be a very impressive 3-1. There seems to be some notion among many Duke fans that this team is fatally flawed in some ways and that we cannot get very far in the Dance. I would say that our impressive performances against the best teams in the country would indicate otherwise.

The top 10 streak is really impressive -- a remarkable achievement. Pitchfork points for anyone who can figure out who has the second longest active streak. I bet it is significantly shorter than the streak Duke currently has going.

Wait... gonna do it myself (can I give myself pitchfork points?).

Ohio State is at 38 straight weeks in the Top 10, dating back to Feb 15 of 2010.
Carolina is at 16 straight weeks. 14 this year plus 2 at the end of last year. Whatever

I may be wrong, but I don't think there is anyone else who has an active streak beyond this season. Syracuse and Kentucky were both outside the Top 10 at the end of last season.

Careful not to overplay that hand. Two of those 3 wins came in November and I would argue bear little semblance to the current state of play. I'm not one who thinks this team is fatally flawed but the team is at a greater risk of being knocked off on any given night because it is without question soft on defense.

The top 10 streak is impressive but is focused largely in the past. If falling out of the top 10 would light a fire under this team's defensive intensity heading into March, I'd gladly forgo the streak.

[UrinalCake]

Careful not to overplay that hand. Two of those 3 wins came in November and I would argue bear little semblance to the current state of play.

I agree, we were fortunate to get to play Kansas and Mich State so early in the year, and after we had the advantage of the China trip. They're both playing much better now, not that we couldn't still beat them but I think they'd be tougher opponents now. Kind of the opposite with OSU though, they're falling a little bit. Also I'm not sure our SOS will remain #1 after we get all the way through the ACC season.