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  1. #1

    ACC's final 3 weeks

    Seems appropriate to have a thread on how the ACC is shaking out, as we're nearing its final 3 weeks; and there's an obvious top half and obvious bottom half.

    First, here's a bit of news: P.J. Hairston to miss Sat v UVa.

    http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...cavaliers-game

    To take the longer view, here's a look at the ACC hopefuls. One caveat, to me as much as to you: in what follows, I sometimes refer to "should win." I understand that this is no guarantee, and FSU @ BC proved that, even more than Duke @ UNC. I'm confident K is preparing for the Terps, not reading EK. Still, one cannot predict standings, and argue about said predictions, if one reduces all games to "anybody can beat anybody." What follows is mostly serious.

    Duke - 5 "should wins" [SW, hereafter]: Md, NCSt [borderline SW?], @ BC, VT, @ Wake. 2 toss-ups: @ FSU, UNC. Our team would have to play with uncharacteristically consistent excellence to get to 14-2. So, we'll be thrilled with 13-3, losing only to, what the hell, Wake. [I'm not actually predicting this loss, but if I had a magic wand and could choose 6 wins and 1 loss, I choose to lose @ Wake.]

    UNC - 3 SWs: home v UVa, Clemson, & Md. But then 3 borderline toss-ups: @ to Miami, NCSt, and UVa. Plus definite toss-up in CIS. Give 'em 13-3, losing in the 3d overtime on 3/3, by a 3-bomb. Duke nabs ACCT 1-seed....

    FSU - I count a mere 2 SWs: home games w/ VT and Clemson. Leaving 5 toss-ups: Duke, 2 games with Miami, and @ NCSt and @ UVa. 12-4, maybe?

    UVa - Tough schedule. Two with UNC, and I don't believe the Cavs will win either of those. They have no, zero, games remaining with BC, GaT, or Wake. I count but 2 SWs: Md and @ Clemson. That leaves 3 toss-ups: @ Md, @ VT, home v FSU. 10-6.

    Miami - I give them 3 SWs: home v Wake and BC, @ Md. Probably 4 toss-ups, though they have a quick turnaround with an early aft game tomorrow at FSU. Larranaga says Reggie doesn't recover quickly after a game, so I think FSU wins tomorrow. The other 3 toss-ups are home with FSU and UNC, and @ NCSt. 10-6.

    NCSt - Maybe, maybe 2 SWs: @ Clemson, @ VT. Then 4 toss-ups, at best: @ Duke, and home games w/ UNC, FSU, Miami. 10-6.

    One of the top 6 probably winds up 9-7.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC
    Maybe I'm getting soft, but I think all 6 of the ACC teams you mentioned should make the NCAA Tournament, especially if they play somewhere near "as expected" the rest of the way.

    You've handicapped the race well, and the final 3 furlongs should be exciting.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Maybe I'm getting soft, but I think all 6 of the ACC teams you mentioned should make the NCAA Tournament, especially if they play somewhere near "as expected" the rest of the way.

    You've handicapped the race well, and the final 3 furlongs should be exciting.
    well, joey brackets has miami and NCST in the last four in and first four out, so i think its hardly a given that either will make or miss the tournament.
    1200. DDMF.

  4. #4

    projecting

    Your projections are logical and all that, but what we've seen so far has not been all that logical.

    Florida State to lose at Boston College?

    Georgia Tech to hammer NC State in Raleigh? Virginia Tech to beat Virginia in Charlottesville?

    Duke to lose one possession games at home to Miami and FSU, then to rally from 10 down with less than 2:30 left to beat UNC?

    It's easy to look at the standings and project what SHOULD happen. But that's not the same as predicting what will happen.

    As a Duke guy, I'd love a 6-1 regular season finish!

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Three big games today to start off the drive to see which four of the six teams can earn the ACCT 1st round bye.

    After completely dropping the ball by losing at Boston College, Florida State faces the surging Miami Hurricanes. Vegas likes Florida State by 7 points. Miami is riding a five game winning streak with three of the five wins being on the road. My money (figuratively speaking) is on the 'Canes.

    North Carolina is a 10.5 points favorite at home over Virginia. Will Carolina rebound from their Wednesday night collapse or will their season spiral out of control? The Tar Heels short bench will be shorter as P.J. Hairston will not play today due to a sore left foot. The Cavaliers are capable of winning this game, but I expect the Tar Heels to prevail at home.

    In the Duke, Maryland game I am going to predict...wait for it...a Duke victory. So, my picks are Miami, Carolina and Duke. There is a fourth game, Clemson @ Wake Forest but who cares?
    Bob Green

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Clifton, VA
    Huge day in the ACC today...

    It would take three road upsets (MD over Duke, UVA over Carolina, and The Canes over FSU), but if that happened there would be a six-way tie for first in the ACC at 7-3.

    If Duke, Carolina, and FSU were to win to go to 8-2, State would be a game back at 7-3 with UVA and Miami two games out at 6-4.

    I would love to see a five way tie for second (at 7-3) with our Devils sitting atop at 8-2.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA

    Halftime updates

    Roy Williams is rocking his inner Norm Sloan wearing an ugly plaid sports coat. Carolina has a 35-32 lead. Florida State is up on Miami 28-26 with 1 second left in the 1st half.
    Bob Green

  8. #8
    UVa lost this (Tues 2/14) eve at Clemson. Injuries pile up; Joe Harris's bad hand made him a non-factor. For several reasons, I'm hoping he can contribute more, and soon. I'd like to see UVa make the NCAAT, and to do that they need to win at home v. either FSU or UNC, highly to be desired in its own right. Better chance to do that if they can get on an uptick by winning at home this Sat v. Md. Go Hoos. Mike Scott for ACC POY. Tony Bennett rocks. Etc.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Go 'Canes!

    (and I am NOT talking 'bout my local NHL team ;>)) )
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Go 'Canes!
    I saw a good amount of the second half of the recent Miami-FSU game, and what I saw seemed to confirm Larranaga's comment that Reggie doesn't recover quickly after a game. The Canes had one of those quick turnarounds, having played the late game last Thurs eve, then had to travel to FSU for early game Sat aft. In the second half, Bernard James took over, and Reggie just wore out. Glad he should be rested for the Heels tonight.

    I don't remember much about the first Canes-Heels game in CH, except it seemed over in the first half. Box score says Dexter played well, so Heels might miss him if Malcolm Grant gets hot. Reggie and Kadji have to stay out of foul trouble, and DeQuan Jones has to get some rebounds when he subs in for either Johnson or Kadji. I assume Durand Scott will want to play Barnes rigorously and vigorously. Canes have to hit their 3s, and they shoot lots of them, maybe second most in ACC, behind Duke. Shane Larkin is playing well, and the Canes have good wing size off the bench to shoot 3s. Might be a really exciting game.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    I saw a good amount of the second half of the recent Miami-FSU game, and what I saw seemed to confirm Larranaga's comment that Reggie doesn't recover quickly after a game. The Canes had one of those quick turnarounds, having played the late game last Thurs eve, then had to travel to FSU for early game Sat aft. In the second half, Bernard James took over, and Reggie just wore out. Glad he should be rested for the Heels tonight.

    I don't remember much about the first Canes-Heels game in CH, except it seemed over in the first half. Box score says Dexter played well, so Heels might miss him if Malcolm Grant gets hot. Reggie and Kadji have to stay out of foul trouble, and DeQuan Jones has to get some rebounds when he subs in for either Johnson or Kadji. I assume Durand Scott will want to play Barnes rigorously and vigorously. Canes have to hit their 3s, and they shoot lots of them, maybe second most in ACC, behind Duke. Shane Larkin is playing well, and the Canes have good wing size off the bench to shoot 3s. Might be a really exciting game.
    Plus, I caught a few minutes of Lunardi on the phone on espn yesterday and he thinks Miami is one of the "first four out" so I hope the 'Canes realize tonight is one of their "play-in" games and they'd better bring a high quality effort, even better than the show they put on at CIS a couple weeks ago. I'm just waiting to see if Kadji and Johnson both pick up a couple quick fouls in the lay-up lines pre-game so Zeller and Henson can go wild from the opening tip. (just kidding. sort of. grr...)
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Your projections are logical and all that, but what we've seen so far has not been all that logical.

    Florida State to lose at Boston College?

    Georgia Tech to hammer NC State in Raleigh? Virginia Tech to beat Virginia in Charlottesville?

    Duke to lose one possession games at home to Miami and FSU, then to rally from 10 down with less than 2:30 left to beat UNC?

    It's easy to look at the standings and project what SHOULD happen. But that's not the same as predicting what will happen.

    As a Duke guy, I'd love a 6-1 regular season finish!
    True. But often, the sum of all illogicals equals logical. (Or something like that...)

    My point being, here we are with less than three weeks left in the ACC season and Duke, UNC, and Florida St are battling atop the ACC standings. Wake Forest, BC, and Ga Tech are flat-lining at the bottom of the ACC. The rest are somewhere in between. This was very much logical and expected before the season ever started.

    Now obviously you can argue FL St's loss to BC was surprising. Or Duke losing to Miami at home. Or that NC St is exceeding expectations while Va Tech is falling short of expectations thus far. But by and large, this year has been quite logical, at least in my view. A few surprises make it all the more logical to me. Basically, I'm just agreeing with Gumbomoop's analysis and also with you that a 6-1 end to our season would be very nice.

    I think we control our own destiny here which is always a nice situation. Just gotta deliver now.

    Back to the recent topic at hand, Miami needs to show some muscle tonight. I don't know that they absolutely need a win here, but they gotta play Carolina tight to keep them in the tourney picture. I think the ACC is looking at 5 teams this year, with Miami pulling the ol' Seth Greenberg routine on fateful Sunday.

    - Chillin
    Last edited by ChillinDuke; 02-15-2012 at 01:16 PM. Reason: Clarity

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Based on gumbo's analysis it looks like Duke has the easiest remaining schedule, at least in terms of "should-win" games versus "toss-up" games. But if you look at just the top three teams, Duke still has to play each of the other two, while UNC and FSU each only have a single game against us. It seems reasonable that we would lose one of those two. I guess you can say we are the most in control of our destiny, because if we win both then we're in pretty good shape for the league title.

    Would love to see Miami knock off UNC tonight.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Florida State improves to 10-2 with their 76-62 win over N.C. State and takes a half game lead over Carolina and Duke atop the ACC Standings. Virginia, N.C. State and Miami are tied for 4th Place with 7-5 records. Carolina tips-off against Clemson in 15 minutes. Go Tigers!!!
    Bob Green

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Florida State improves to 10-2 with their 76-62 win over N.C. State and takes a half game lead over Carolina and Duke atop the ACC Standings. Virginia, N.C. State and Miami are tied for 4th Place with 7-5 records. Carolina tips-off against Clemson in 15 minutes. Go Tigers!!!
    I was pulling for NC State, but it was obvious they were going to lose. They looked flat after a quick turnaround from the Duke game. What I noticed the most from watching was CJ Leslie being completely lost on D. I mean like in the wilderness with no compass or map lost. He was just standing still watching the ball and FSU shredded State with cuts and screens. I thought for sure he would be benched by Gottfried. K would have had his butt sitting down for most of the 2nd half.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by theAlaskanBear View Post
    I was pulling for NC State, but it was obvious they were going to lose. They looked flat after a quick turnaround from the Duke game. What I noticed the most from watching was CJ Leslie being completely lost on D. I mean like in the wilderness with no compass or map lost. He was just standing still watching the ball and FSU shredded State with cuts and screens. I thought for sure he would be benched by Gottfried. K would have had his butt sitting down for most of the 2nd half.
    Leslie was on the court for a reason. At one point the shooting for players not named CJ Leslie was 1 for 21, while Leslie had made five of nine.

    sage

  17. #17

    Virginia

    Virginia stopped the bleeding with great second half against Maryland. Tied at the half, the Cavs dominated the second 20 minutes and coasted to their 20th win. Virginia Tech puled out another buzzer-beater, getting a 3 at the buzzer to beat GeorgiaTech in OT. Miami also pulled away in the second half to beat Wake.

    Okay, assuming UNC beats Clemson (surprisingly close game, but you know the Heels win, we have two very tight groups at the top of the standings.

    UNC 10-2 23-4
    FSU 10-2 19-7
    Duke 9-2 22-4 (need to win Sunday at BC to keep pace)

    Virginia 7-5 20-6
    NC State 7-5 18-9
    Miami 7-5 16-9

    Pretty good race for the regular season title and pretty good race for the fourh ACC Tournament bye. Those are the six teams vying for the NCAA Tournament too ... Virginia really helped itelf today -- they're pretty close to a lock. Miami and N.C. State have a lot of work to do.
    Miami 7-7

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Leslie was on the court for a reason. At one point the shooting for players not named CJ Leslie was 1 for 21, while Leslie had made five of nine.

    sage
    I heard that too, but it was the second half where I saw all the defensive lapses. I'm usually never one to question a players effort, but he was literally just standing still, and he never tried to recover or collapse to the basket, he just watched them score. I don't know. Maybe he was afraid of foul trouble.

    Now the whole NC State team was pretty flat, so I can understand the "best player on the court"...but there is no way to beat FSU when you are letting there bigmen uncontested shots.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Virginia traveled to Blacksburg and beat Virginia Tech 61-59, while NC State and Miami both lost so the Cavaliers are now in sole possession of 4th Place in the conference at 8-5. Virginia is in solid shape and should be closing in on locking up a NCAAT bid. They could really help their own cause with a victory over either North Carolina on Saturday or Florida State next week. Both games are in Charlottesville.
    Bob Green

  20. #20

    viginia

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Virginia traveled to Blacksburg and beat Virginia Tech 61-59, while NC State and Miami both lost so the Cavaliers are now in sole possession of 4th Place in the conference at 8-5. Virginia is in solid shape and should be closing in on locking up a NCAAT bid. They could really help their own cause with a victory over either North Carolina on Saturday or Florida State next week. Both games are in Charlottesville.
    Agree that Virginia in in good shape for the NCAA bid now. But it's not a lock and their bid to finish fourth (and get a bye in the ACC Tournament) is far from secure. They have by far the toughest ACC schedule of the three-fourth-place contenders left -- UNC and FSU at home, then at Maryland. They could easily lose all three. Would they be a lock then?

    NC Satte, which just went 0-3 against the Big Three, has an easier path -- at Clemson (which is playing better), Miami at home (State has already won at Miami) and at Virginia Tech (which, like Clemson, is also playing better). They almost have to sweep that trio to bolster their NCAA credentials.

    Miami is in similar shape to NC State. A game behind Virginia and probably on the wrong side of the NCAA bubble. They have a slightly worse record than the Pack, but they do have one thing NC State doesn't have -- a quality win at Duke. They get a big chance to add another quality win when FSU visits Miami Sunday. Then they take on NC State in Raleigh (not quite an elimination game, but close to it). They finish with what should be a sure win at home against a fading BC.

    The race for fourth place is almost as exciting as the three-way race for first ... plus it has the added excitement of the fact that all three contenders are fighting to secure their NCAA bids. I think Virginia is in good shape, but not a lock ... NC State and Miami still have work to do.

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