MBB: Duke 83, St. John's 76 Post Game Thread

[NSDukeFan]

I don’t think anyone really believes we can’t beat anyone in the nation on any given night. The real question is, “Can we string 6 consecutive victories together against tournament level teams?”

I doubt that this team can string 6 consecutive victories together against tournament level teams. But... this team might be able to win that first tournament of first and second round games to advance to the sweet 16. If that happens, they might get into a couple of good match-ups, or have improved enough defensively, or get hot shooting, or play with sufficient intensity to play a couple of good games and win a Regional. If this team advances to the Final Four, it would be time to re-evaluate, look at who else is there and see if Duke could find some way to win the first game to get in the final. If that were to happen, who knows?

[NSDukeFan]

Can we? Yes, sure, of course we can.

Will we? Odds are against that every year. This year, at this point, odds are more against us than they were on January 31, 1992 or January 31, 1999. But, as Kedsy pointed out in another thread, the odds against UConn putting together 6 consecutive victories against tournament level teams on January 31, 2011 were probably longer than ours are now. Same with NCSU on January 31, 1983, and Villanova on January 31, 1985, etc, etc, etc.

A more interesting question is what do we need to do, as a team, to maximize our odds of putting together 6 consecutive victories against tournament level teams.

My list would include:
1) Defensive consistency
2) Defensive consistency
3) Defensive consistency
4) Continuing to make getting the ball into Mason and Miles a priority. On nights where the 3s aren't falling, those guys can keep us alive, as long as we have...
5) Defensive consistency
6) Get Curry going offensively
7) Defensive consistency
8) Keep Dawkins confidence level high - he's got his mojo now, and we need him to keep it. We're a much more potent offense when he's on.
9) Defensive consistency
10) Defensive consistency

Would you be hinting that you think defensive consistency might be an important factor in this team's chances at success this year? Tell us how you really feel.

[toooskies]

I doubt that this team can string 6 consecutive victories together against tournament level teams. But... this team might be able to win that first tournament of first and second round games to advance to the sweet 16. If that happens, they might get into a couple of good match-ups, or have improved enough defensively, or get hot shooting, or play with sufficient intensity to play a couple of good games and win a Regional. If this team advances to the Final Four, it would be time to re-evaluate, look at who else is there and see if Duke could find some way to win the first game to get in the final. If that were to happen, who knows?

I would argue that 5 of our first 7 wins this year look like tournament-level teams and we won them all. This is how Lunardi seeds them:

Belmont (14)
Davidson (13)
Michigan (4)
MSU (3)
Kansas (2)

If Duke gets a 1 seed (based on our strong SOS/RPI), then we're looking at Belmont/Davidson as the equivalent of 16/8 seeds, then Michigan at a 4, Michigan State coming from the other half of the Regional, then Kansas in a Final Four game. (And ultimately, we lose to Ohio State in the championship...)

So, this team has demonstrated it has a tournament run in it, the only question is if we're getting better throughout the season.

[MCFinARL]

I think his point was before the tournament starts the odds are stacked heavily against any team any year to do it.

Most likely you are right--that that was his point, I mean; you are certainly right that before the tournament the odds are stacked heavily against any team any year to do it. I was just reading literally and trying (apparently in vain) to be a bit humorous. I'll add the smiley face next time--or forget the post altogether.

[Kedsy]

Most likely you are right--that that was his point, I mean; you are certainly right that before the tournament the odds are stacked heavily against any team any year to do it. I was just reading literally and trying (apparently in vain) to be a bit humorous. I'll add the smiley face next time--or forget the post altogether.

Sorry, it really is hard to tell sometimes.

[UrinalCake]

If Duke gets a 1 seed (based on our strong SOS/RPI), then we're looking at Belmont/Davidson as the equivalent of 16/8 seeds, then Michigan at a 4, Michigan State coming from the other half of the Regional, then Kansas in a Final Four game. (And ultimately, we lose to Ohio State in the championship...)

That's an interesting way of looking at it. I often hear people say that you need to play six solid games to win a championship, and I would argue that as a #1 seed you can get out of the first weekend without playing all that well. FSU is currently projected as a 6 seed, so if we can beat them at home despite playing the worst half of defense that has ever been played in the history of college basketball (), then I think we can beat an 8/9 on a neutral court without playing our best game. So you really only need to string together FOUR solid games, which is still tough but statistically less of an anomaly.

On the other hand, Temple is currently bracketed as a 9, so they could bounce us in the second round. We'll see...

[MCFinARL]

That's an interesting way of looking at it. I often hear people say that you need to play six solid games to win a championship, and I would argue that as a #1 seed you can get out of the first weekend without playing all that well. FSU is currently projected as a 6 seed, so if we can beat them at home despite playing the worst half of defense that has ever been played in the history of college basketball (), then I think we can beat an 8/9 on a neutral court without playing our best game. So you really only need to string together FOUR solid games, which is still tough but statistically less of an anomaly.

On the other hand, Temple is currently bracketed as a 9, so they could bounce us in the second round. We'll see...

Well, but we didn't beat them at home. Granted, we came very close to beating them, and even should have beaten them, despite that terrible half to defense, but we didn't.