NFC Playoff discussion

[JasonEvans]

Following Hurleyfor3's lead...

GreenBay - ummm, they've got some injury issues and their D sometimes relies too much on the big play instead of being consistent, but there ain't much wrong here. Their run game is poor.
Nawlins - lets see... the left side of their defensive line doesn't get many sacks. Yup, they are kinda weak rushing the passer from the left side of the line.
San Fran - their offense is mediocre, at best. They struggle to score more than mid-teens. They have not scored more than 27 points in 11 weeks. They are awesome on D against the run but the best teams in the NFC are all pass-happy. They commit too many penalties.
Detroit - they are a penalty waiting to happen, usually waiting for the worst possible moment. They seem undisciplined and too young to really compete with the best teams. Their run offense is quite weak.
Atlanta - Their run game, once a strength, has deteriorated. The D is awful at getting off the field on 3rd down. The receivers can look great one minute and make an inexplicable drop the next.
Dallas - hey are good at a lot, but great at very little. The secondary seems suspect. They also seem to commit too many penalties and just seem to make a lot of mental mistakes. Don't seem to have the firepower to keep up with the top of the NFC.
NY Giants - D, which is traditionally the Giants' strength, is just not that good outside of the D-line. Rushing game has been poor. Team feels very inconsistent.

-Jason "personally, I think the Saints and Green Bay are a step above every other team in the NFL right now" Evans

[hurleyfor3]

The NFC feels like it's Green Bay versus the field. I wonder who matches up best against the Packers, and why. I think you need to be able to score points against them, which seems to rule out the 49ers.

[JasonEvans]

The NFC feels like it's Green Bay versus the field. I wonder who matches up best against the Packers, and why. I think you need to be able to score points against them, which seems to rule out the 49ers.

You don't think New Orleans can play with the Packers? They played in Green Bay early in the season and it was a very close game. If the weather gets bad and passing becomes difficult, NO's rushing attack is far, far superior to the Packers. I think the Packers D is better than the Saints, but not by a ton. The Packers got all the attention because of the win streak, but New Orleans has looked phenomenal for a while now.

I do agree that the 49ers will be hard pressed to keep up with these two. The 49ers can't seem to even score 28 points in a game, NO and GB frequently have 28 points by halftime.

-Jason "my view of NO may be colored by the degree to which they whupped the Falcons last night" Evans

[JasonEvans]

As an aside, I am hoping the 49ers somehow slip behind the Saints allowing us to have a NFC semi-finals pitting Atlanta, Detroit, Nawlins, and Green Bay. The over-under on each of those games could be in the 60s... and I'd probably take the over.

-Jason "the old 'Defense wins championships' saying is really beign put to the test in the NFC" Evans

[OldPhiKap]

Green Bay, at home in January, is a big advantage. As if they needed another edge.

[JasonEvans]

Green Bay, at home in January, is a big advantage. As if they needed another edge.

Is it? I think the Saints run game (Ivory, Thomas, Ingram, and Sproles) is vastly, vastly better than the non-existent rush attack of the Packers. I also think the Saints short passing attack with Graham and Sproles at its core, is superior to the Packers (though Findley is quite good). I don't see a messy weather game necessarily favoring the Packers over the Saints.

Now, if the 49ers somehow make that game, they would have a major advantage in a game where passing attacks were somewhat neutered.

-Jason "the Packers linebackers and secondary are the places they definitely have a leg up on the Saints" Evans

[hurleyfor3]

I'm not certain bad weather doesn't serve to magnify the advantages of a good offense, rather than neutralize them. It is similar to moving the tees back on golf courses (which favors the longest hitters) or moving the 3-point line back in basketball (where only the best shooters end up consistently making 3s).

[davekay1971]

An icy slick field (ie: the frooooozen tundra of Lambeauuuu field in January) can be a big help to a passing game. Basically, the receivers know when and where they're going to cut, the d-backs don't, and therefore the d-backs are more likely to slip. I get Jason's point, and if it's a rainy monsoon that grounds the passing game, I guess that helps N'Awlins with their running game...although grounding the new single-season passing record in Brees is a pretty big hit to N'Awlins. But if it's just wintery and cold, both teams will probably have some luck throwing the ball.

Overall, this seems like a week 1 rematch in the championship game waiting to happen. The fact that GB has sewed up home feild is big. They get to welcome the warm-weather/dome N'Awlins to Lambeau, rather than having to play in the chaos of the Superdome.

I can't really see any other NFC team sneaking into the championship game right now. I may be wrong, and the 49ers may pull a Ravens and march through to the title with a one-sided team. But Rodgers and Brees are choreographic two of the best offenses I've seen in a long time, and I have a hard time seeing the 49ers holding them in check.

[OldPhiKap]

^^^ Dave has pretty much summarized why I think GB has a huge home-field advantage.

[JasonEvans]

When I was thinking of bad weather, I was thinking of the wind. A windy field tends to make medium-long precision passing (the kind at which GB excels) much more difficult. Not that GB can't execute the screen passes and short-range passing attacks that are so hard to defend on a slippery field, but I think Nawlins is better at these things than GB is... by a tiny margin.

Still, I agree with the overall sentiment that these two are probably fated to play each other for the NFC championship in Green Bay... and it is likely to be a fun-to-watch shootout. GB is the favorite, but if they are getting more than 3 or 4 points, I think the Saints would be a very attractive pick.

-Jason "now watch the NFC final be Detroit and San Fran " Evans

[OldPhiKap]

Giants and Falcons both looked really good today. Should be a hell of a game.

[JasonEvans]

Giants and Falcons both looked really good today. Should be a hell of a game.

Certainly looks like it will be the most competitive game of next weekend. Vegas has the Giants (at home) as a 3 point favorite. Houston is a 3 point pick over Cincy too. Nawlins is a 10 point pick over Detroit while the Steelers are about 8 or 9 over Denver.

-Jason "do we need a playoff thread or should we continue to keep the AFC and NFC separate?" Evans

[OldPhiKap]

-Jason "do we need a playoff thread or should we continue to keep the AFC and NFC separate?" Evans

Probably a single one, but I'll defer to those who must monitor.

[blazindw]

-Jason "do we need a playoff thread or should we continue to keep the AFC and NFC separate?" Evans

I think we can keep the AFC and NFC separate...just rename the threads AFC Playoffs and NFC Playoffs. I think that will help with the discussion between the leagues because in the playoffs, it really doesn't help to compare AFC to NFC until we know who represents each in the Super Bowl.

LET'S GO LIONS!!

[weezie]

LET'S GO LIONS!!

Well, I'm, of course, with you but am admittedly scared-y of the saint. I hope the Lion learns everything possible from this game.

[JasonEvans]

This site has odds teams will make the Super Bowl from the NFC.

Packers 4/5
Saints 11/4
49ers 6/1
Giants 10/1
Falcons 16/1
Lions 22/1

The 49ers at 6-1 is an interesting pick for a team that gets a first round bye. Of course, it seems likely they will have to beat the high-powered offense of the Saints and the Packers to make the Super Bowl, which is a tall order for a team that is extremely offensively-challenged.

-Jason "the Giants at 10-1 is a joke... that is throwing your money away in my opinion" Evans

[blazindw]

This site has odds teams will make the Super Bowl from the NFC.

Packers 4/5
Saints 11/4
49ers 6/1
Giants 10/1
Falcons 16/1
Lions 22/1

The 49ers at 6-1 is an interesting pick for a team that gets a first round bye. Of course, it seems likely they will have to beat the high-powered offense of the Saints and the Packers to make the Super Bowl, which is a tall order for a team that is extremely offensively-challenged.

-Jason "the Giants at 10-1 is a joke... that is throwing your money away in my opinion" Evans

I should put $2 on the Lions...of course I'm biased, but I think we have a better chance to win this weekend than everyone is giving us.

[tommy]

This site has odds teams will make the Super Bowl from the NFC.

Packers 4/5
Saints 11/4
49ers 6/1
Giants 10/1
Falcons 16/1
Lions 22/1

The 49ers at 6-1 is an interesting pick for a team that gets a first round bye. Of course, it seems likely they will have to beat the high-powered offense of the Saints and the Packers to make the Super Bowl, which is a tall order for a team that is extremely offensively-challenged.

-Jason "the Giants at 10-1 is a joke... that is throwing your money away in my opinion" Evans

I don't think so. Look, the Giants have been very inconsistent. They could easily lose to Atlanta at home. But when they're playing well, they can beat anybody -- remember, Eli torched the Packers and they were tied with a minute to play. An excellent pass rush can be the great equalizer. I don't care how great a team's passing game is. If the QB doesn't have time to throw, they're in trouble. I wouldn't predict it necessarily, but nor would I be shocked to see the Giants build on the Dallas blowout and start to roll in the playoffs.

[ncexnyc]

I don't think so. Look, the Giants have been very inconsistent. They could easily lose to Atlanta at home. But when they're playing well, they can beat anybody -- remember, Eli torched the Packers and they were tied with a minute to play. An excellent pass rush can be the great equalizer. I don't care how great a team's passing game is. If the QB doesn't have time to throw, they're in trouble. I wouldn't predict it necessarily, but nor would I be shocked to see the Giants build on the Dallas blowout and start to roll in the playoffs.

I believe some guy by the name of Tom Brady will back you up on this.

[Blue in the Face]

I don't think so. Look, the Giants have been very inconsistent. They could easily lose to Atlanta at home. But when they're playing well, they can beat anybody -- remember, Eli torched the Packers and they were tied with a minute to play.

I'm a Giants fan, but I don't see how they've demonstrated that they can beat anybody. To their credit, they won at New England, but that's their lone win against a superior team all season. Yes, they were competitive against GB and were tied very late. But they lost, at home. They were competitive against SF, on the road. But they lost. Going 1-3 against playoff teams, even with 3 of those being road games, and two of the losses being close, isn't showing you can beat anybody. Of course, I thought they'd beat TB and lose after that in 2008, so...