ACC-Big Ten challenge commentary thread

[JasonEvans]

Let this thread be your place for pre-challenge predictions and comments. Please also vote in the poll of how many wins the ACC will get in the challenge.

Allow me to start with the following:

Pomeroy's rankings do not paint a pretty picture--

ACC vs/at BigTen - % chance ACC wins game
Duke at Ohio State - 22%
UNC at Wisconsin - 46%
FSU at Mich State - 37%
Virginia vs. Michigan - 61%
Va Tech at Minn. - 34%
Miami at Purdue - 21%
Clemson at Iowa - 55%
NC St vs. Indiana - 49%
Ga Tech vs. NWern - 52%
Maryland vs. Illinois - 50%
Wake at Nebraska - 13%
BC vs. Penn State - 39%

So, Pom makes only 2 ACC teams favorites (very small favorites) with one game a 50-50 toss-up. 2 more games are so close (49-51% and 46-54%) that they might be considered toss-ups too. If we consider anything inside of 55-45 a toss-up then we have 5 toss-up games.

The other 7 games all appear to be solidly to the Big Ten's advantage. I know from talking to some folks that the Pom rankings of Clemson, Maryland, and Ga Tech all seem somewhat inflated given those team's results so far, which may make those teams (who are the three biggest favorites for the ACC) all less likely to win.

I guess my point is, that a 10-2 Big Ten trouncing or something like that may not be so unlikely.

-Jason "Ugggh, quite a down year for the conference!" Evans

[CDu]

I'm not sure why Pomeroy lists UNC at Wisconsin. That's a home game for UNC. As such, I'd expect UNC to be the favorites.

I'll say we'll win 4-5. I think 10-2 Big Ten is pretty unlikely, but certainly more possible than 10-2 ACC. I'd be shocked if we won more than 6, and even 6 would surprise me a little.

I'll take UNC at home against Wisconsin, State at home against Indiana, Va Tech at Minnesota, Clemson at Iowa, and what the heck, Duke over OSU in the upset (though I don't think 22% is a reasonable estimate of our chances). Other reasonably winnable games include GT vs NU, Maryland vs Illinois, FSU @ MSU, and UVa vs Michigan. I'd consider those last four to be unlikely wins, but both FSU and UVa could ugly the game up enough to win and GT and Maryland are at least at home against mediocre teams.

One thing to note: Pomeroy seems to be putting a lot of value on home court advantage. I don't think, for example, that UVa is as good as Michigan. But he has UVa as a heavy home favorite. Similarly, he puts Minnosota as a 2:1 favorite over VT even though they're basically similar teams. And he's got OSU as a near 4:1 favorite over us.

[gw67]

Jason,

I agree with you that this may be the year when the Big Ten really hammers the ACC. Ohio State is loaded and Wisconsin is always tough at the top and they have several pretty good teams. The Devils, UNC and the Noles all play road games. I would like them to win more but I figure 4 wins by the ACC may be realistic.

I haven't seen the Terps play but a long-time friend, golf partner and UMd alum has seen them play twice and his early assessment is that this year's team is the weakest in many a year. According to him they don't have a strong point and have some major weaknesses (shooting, passing and defending). Unless Illinois loses their starting lineup to the flu I don't see this as a 50% game.

gw67

[CDu]

Jason,

I agree with you that this may be the year when the Big Ten really hammers the ACC. Ohio State is loaded and Wisconsin is always tough at the top and they have several pretty good teams. The Devils, UNC and the Noles all play road games. I would like them to win more but I figure 4 wins by the ACC may be realistic.

I haven't seen the Terps play but a long-time friend, golf partner and UMd alum has seen them play twice and his early assessment is that this year's team is the weakest in many a year. According to him they don't have a strong point and have some major weaknesses (shooting, passing and defending). Unless Illinois loses their starting lineup to the flu I don't see this as a 50% game.

gw67

UNC doesn't play on the road in the Challenge. They get Wisconsin at home. I believe that's a typo by Pomeroy.

[House G]

Man, what happened to Iowa's program?

[jimsumner]

Man, what happened to Iowa's program?

Don Nelson graduated?

Sorry, couldn't help it.

[tbyers11]

UNC doesn't play on the road in the Challenge. They get Wisconsin at home. I believe that's a typo by Pomeroy.

I'm not sure what Jason is looking at but Pomeroy has UNC as a home team. However, his rankings like Wisconsin so much right now that even with the home court factor they favor Wisconsin by a point.

Wisconsin has been blowing out weak teams (and a decent BYU team last night) with some insanely good 3pt shooting (hence their high Pom ranking) but I can't see them winning in Chapel Hill. Their ability to control pace and hit 3's could keep the game close but I think UNC's bigs will be too athletic over the long haul if UNC decides to keep punching the ball down low.

[jamesfrommaiden]

That is ridiculous. I would say Duke has at least a 35 to 40 percent chance if you want to look at it like that. I of course think Duke will win. I always think Duke will win. At least I always give our team a shot regardless of the opponent or venue. 22% is a joke. I wont be surprised at all if UNC loses to the Badgers. Has anyone out there seen Wisconsin play defense?

[jamesfrommaiden]

Man, what happened to Iowa's program?

Have they had a program since the days of BJ Armstrong and Roy Marble?

[JasonEvans]

I just voted and went with 4 wins. Don't ask me which games they will be, but as I look across the slate, I think the ACC has at least a decent chance in about 8 or 9 of the matchups. I figure we win about half of those.

Interesting that the collective fans here seem to be fairly pessimistic too. Only 25% think the ACC will win the challenge, and almost all of them think the ACC win will come by the narrowest of margins, 7-5.

-Jason "for those of you who have not voted... do so quickly! You've got about a day left" Evans

[SilkyJ]

I guess I'm channeling my inner ozzie here, but I think we can get 6 or 7 here. I think we win these games

Duke at Ohio State - 22%
UNC at Wisconsin - 46%
Va Tech at Minn. - 34%
Clemson at Iowa - 55%
NC St vs. Indiana - 49%

That get's us to 5. And we can win 1 or 2 of these:

Ga Tech vs. NWern - 52%
BC vs. Penn State - 39%
FSU at Mich State - 37%
Virginia vs. Michigan - 61%

Tech and BC if for no other reason than they are playing avg competition and FSU and UVA are solid teams as well and could pull an upset.

Maybe 4-5 seems more likely, but I'll stay optimistic and say the ACC pulls this one out, like they have 10 of the last 11 or whatever it is.

[HCheek37]

I like Va Tech on the road against Minnesota without their big man Mbakwe...I think we could have 8 or 9 games decided by 5 points or less but I still went with the Big 10 going 7-5

[ChillinDuke]

I guess I'm channeling my inner ozzie here, but I think we can get 6 or 7 here. I think we win these games

Duke at Ohio State - 22%
UNC at Wisconsin - 46%
Va Tech at Minn. - 34%
Clemson at Iowa - 55%
NC St vs. Indiana - 49%

That get's us to 5. And we can win 1 or 2 of these:

Ga Tech vs. NWern - 52%
BC vs. Penn State - 39%
FSU at Mich State - 37%
Virginia vs. Michigan - 61%

Tech and BC if for no other reason than they are playing avg competition and FSU and UVA are solid teams as well and could pull an upset.

Maybe 4-5 seems more likely, but I'll stay optimistic and say the ACC pulls this one out, like they have 10 of the last 11 or whatever it is.

The additional 1 or 2 will not include the bolded game.

- Chillin

[loran16]

That is ridiculous. I would say Duke has at least a 35 to 40 percent chance if you want to look at it like that. I of course think Duke will win. I always think Duke will win. At least I always give our team a shot regardless of the opponent or venue. 22% is a joke. I wont be surprised at all if UNC loses to the Badgers. Has anyone out there seen Wisconsin play defense?

For the record, the 22% comes from the fact that Ohio State is far better than Duke in every defensive category this year - eFG%, Offensive Rebounds allowed, and especially forcing turnovers and avoiding fouls. They also are debate-ably better on O. And they're AT Home.

Quite seriously, OSU is really really good, and beating them at OSU would be an amazing accomplishment - they're the best team we'll face all year unless UNC gets quite better.

[devildeac]

I'll take unc (yuk) and the guys in stripes at the Dump on the Hump, NCSU at home and 1 upset. Don't know much about UVA but can't see them beating UM, nor can I see f$u winning on the road, especially after their collapse against uCon missing FT down the stretch AND fouling a 3 point attempt up 3 as time was winding down.

[gw67]

Have they had a program since the days of BJ Armstrong and Roy Marble?

The answer is a weak Yes! I believe Alford had 2-3 teams that won over 20 games and Tom Davis had a number of decent teams. They have had several "nice" players over the years but, to my recollection, no All Americans. I believe that Marble's youngster played for them last year as a reserve. I don't recall whether he was an underclassman.

gw67

[Wander]

You have to completely change the way you think of the ACC. The conference used to be defined by two things: the constant powerhouses of Duke and Carolina, and the bottom of the conference being by far the best of any conference. That second one is completely changed, mostly due I think to the recent coaching turnover.

I'll take NC State, one of Duke/UNC, and one of Clemson/Virginia/FSU. Three wins.

[hurleyfor3]

You have to completely change the way you think of the ACC. The conference used to be defined by two things: the constant powerhouses of Duke and Carolina, and the bottom of the conference being by far the best of any conference. That second one is completely changed, mostly due I think to the recent coaching turnover.

I don't think the bottom has gotten worse, but it has gotten bigger. So the middle has thinned out, and the top has the same old two big attractions trying to compensate for all the other weaknesses.

Welcome to the new ACC. The Kim Kardashian of basketball conferences.

[loran16]

I don't think the bottom has gotten worse, but it has gotten bigger. So the middle has thinned out, and the top has the same old two big attractions trying to compensate for all the other weaknesses.

Welcome to the new ACC. The Kim Kardashian of basketball conferences.

Not really at all. The ACC bottom has been the same for what, 8 years now? And until the past two years, it has had zero truly awful teams. Wake & BC kill this conference at the bottom. Just hurt bad. And Maryland this year isn't helping.

[hurleyfor3]

Not really at all. The ACC bottom has been the same for what, 8 years now? And until the past two years, it has had zero truly awful teams. Wake & BC kill this conference at the bottom. Just hurt bad. And Maryland this year isn't helping.

Fair enough, and you can add GIT to the list at the bottom. But I stand by my Kim reference.