BCS Chaos -- Nick Saban evil genius

[A-Tex Devil]

Holy moly the BCS is going to be messy this year. There are about 8 different ways for chaos to ensue, including the most likely path (that being the rematch that most people don't want to see and would be wildly unfair to LSU).

Maybe Nick Saban knew EXACTLY what he was doing on November 5th. Alabama loses the game of the century at home, and because they lost that game, they have a clear path to the BCS title game if they beat Auburn this weekend, which they should. Meanwhile, LSU, who beat 'Bama on the road, of course, has to now beat Arkansas and Georgia (both top 10 BCS teams) just to get a shot to probably play again the team they beat!! While I will root for chaos, I don't want to see a rematch, and I hope against hope that Auburn beats 'Bama this weekend. Perhaps if Okie State smokes Oklahoma, voters will let them hop Alabama, but I doubt it. And losing to Iowa St. is pretty inexcusable as it is.

Thank god OU is out though.

And as an aside... a hilarious Godfather themed ode to this weekend's top 10 bloodbath, courtesy of animated gif genius, LSUfreek, starring Les Miles as Michael Corleone and Mike Gundy as Moe Green.

[kdavis]

Perfectly acceptable analysis, but as an Alabama fan (football only, sorry but Duke didn't win at all in football while I was there and I thought the stadium was a place to use the bathroom during grad school campout and sleep through commencement exercises) I would LOVE to see the rematch in January.

That said, how awful is the BCmesS that my team can play for the national championship while failing to win its own division. Oh well, I'll take it anyway.

[CDu]

Holy moly the BCS is going to be messy this year. There are about 8 different ways for chaos to ensue, including the most likely path (that being the rematch that most people don't want to see and would be wildly unfair to LSU).

Maybe Nick Saban knew EXACTLY what he was doing on November 5th. Alabama loses the game of the century at home, and because they lost that game, they have a clear path to the BCS title game if they beat Auburn this weekend, which they should. Meanwhile, LSU, who beat 'Bama on the road, of course, has to now beat Arkansas and Georgia (both top 10 BCS teams) just to get a shot to probably play again the team they beat!! While I will root for chaos, I don't want to see a rematch, and I hope against hope that Auburn beats 'Bama this weekend. Perhaps if Okie State smokes Oklahoma, voters will let them hop Alabama, but I doubt it. And losing to Iowa St. is pretty inexcusable as it is.

I think if LSU beats Arkansas, they'll be in regardless of the SEC championship. They're way ahead in the BCS standings, so I don't think a loss to Georgia would be enough to drop them to #3. Of course, if LSU beats Arkansas and Alabama beats Auburn we'd have a weird case where the BCS opponents might be decided BEFORE the conference championship games.

Where things would get really interesting is if Arkansas beats LSU. In that scenario, it'd come down to points as to which two one-loss SEC teams get in. Basically, if Alabama beats Auburn, there's a very real probability of an SEC West rematch of some sort.

I won't be surprised of OSU loses to OU. But even if they do win the Big-12, I think they only get into the championship game if two SEC teams end up with two losses. The loss to Iowa State hurts, especially when compared to the resumes of those SEC schools. So I'm guessing they'd cheer for LSU and Auburn to win.

[A-Tex Devil]

I think if LSU beats Arkansas, they'll be in regardless of the SEC championship. They're way ahead in the BCS standings, so I don't think a loss to Georgia would be enough to drop them to #3. Of course, if LSU beats Arkansas and Alabama beats Auburn we'd have a weird case where the BCS opponents might be decided BEFORE the conference championship games.

Where things would get really interesting is if Arkansas beats LSU. In that scenario, it'd come down to points as to which two one-loss SEC teams get in. Basically, if Alabama beats Auburn, there's a very real probability of an SEC West rematch of some sort.

I won't be surprised of OSU loses to OU. But even if they do win the Big-12, I think they only get into the championship game if two SEC teams end up with two losses. The loss to Iowa State hurts, especially when compared to the resumes of those SEC schools. So I'm guessing they'd cheer for LSU and Auburn to win.

Agree with all of this. LSU has had a monster schedule this year. If they lose to Georgia, though, then you have a BCS title game where 2 teams from the same division of the same conference, who aren't even conference champions play for all the marbles. Wild.

Everything that can be said has been said, but one of the biggest arguments from anti-playoff people has been how the regular season is a playoff, and how creating an 8 or 16 team playoff will dilute that. This argument flies out the window if 'Bama makes the BCS CCG.

[Bluedog]

Well, weird things can happen with voters on the final week depending on what matchup they want to see. What year was it that a team ranked #2 in BCS the next to last week and was idle the last week was then leapfrogged by another team in the final week? I can't recall...But sometimes voters don't want to see teams that didn't win their conference division in the national title game. It would seem incredibly unfair to LSU if, for example, they beat a really solid Arkansas team (on top of their wins against Oregon and 'Bama already) and then lose to UGa in the conference championship game and Alabama is selected over LSU because they didn't have to play an extra game? Doesn't make any sense. Well, the BCS makes no sense so I guess it fits. And, as noted above, LSU would still probably make it in that scenario.

I personally would not like to see two teams from the same conference in the national championship game regardless of if they are viewed as the top 2. The BCS is already inherently not fair; if you can't even get to your conference's title game (and especially if you already lost to the other team in the title game), you don't deserve the national championship in my mind (unless it's a playoff system, then it's fair game at that point). But not in a one-game scenario. Really major chaos this year. Maybe Va Tech can make it.

[A-Tex Devil]

Well, weird things can happen with voters on the final week depending on what matchup they want to see. What year was it that a team ranked #2 in BCS the next to last week and was idle the last week was then leapfrogged by another team in the final week? I can't recall...But sometimes voters don't want to see teams that didn't win their conference division in the national title game. It would seem incredibly unfair to LSU if, for example, they beat a really solid Arkansas team (on top of their wins against Oregon and 'Bama already) and then lose to UGa in the conference championship game and Alabama is selected over LSU because they didn't have to play an extra game? Doesn't make any sense. Well, the BCS makes no sense so I guess it fits.

I personally would not like to see two teams from the same conference in the national championship game regardless of if they are viewed as the top 2. The BCS is already inherently not fair; if you can't even get to your conference's title game, you don't deserve the national championship in my mind (unless it's a playoff system, then it's fair game at that point). But not in a one-game scenario. Really major chaos this year. Maybe Va Tech can make it.

Va Tech has a shot, I think, albeit very remote ('Bama, Okie St., Arkansas, and perhaps Stanford, all have to lose).

There are a few simple rules that can patch a problem like this year's, but perhaps they would have unintended consequences:

1. No rematches. If #2 has played #1, the loser of the original game is out and #3 is in. We are clearly headed this way. If the regular season truly is a "playoff" this rule is a must.

2. Only conference champions. Seems easy enough. Not sure why this is so tough. Only 2 teams made it that weren't conference champions -- Nebraska in 01 and OU in 03. Both were beaten pretty easily, and there were conference champions (Oregon and USC, respectively) that were more than worthy in each of those years.

3. No 2 loss teams over a 1 loss or undefeated team in the top 5. This hasn't happened yet, but it allows for a buffer for a computer anomaly that puts a 2 loss team ahead of a highly ranked 1 loss team. I'm not saying KU or Hawaii should have made it in 2007, but if a Houston or Boise St., etc. was ever sitting at #3 behind a 2 loss SEC team, I am all for this rule being implemented.

If you implement these rules, you avoid a lot of the things people are complaining about. Only the 2002 and 2003 BCS outcome would have been any different.

[Wander]

I think you guys, and most analysts, are underselling Oklahoma State's chances. The computers say the Big 12 is the best conference (and, based on the games the SEC played against 1-AA teams this weekend, I'm not sure that's incorrect), voters have shown willingness to change poll positions in the last week of the season to avoid a rematch (see: Ohio State/Michigan a few years ago), and Gundy can use the old Les Miles platitude of "my team is undefeated in regulation."

Of course, all this is assuming OSU beats Oklahoma.

[CDu]

Agree with all of this. LSU has had a monster schedule this year. If they lose to Georgia, though, then you have a BCS title game where 2 teams from the same division of the same conference, who aren't even conference champions play for all the marbles. Wild.

Yeah, although that's more an anomaly of the conference structure. Georgia is the 4th or 5th best team in the SEC this year. They just happen to play on the other side of the bracket. I'd be surprised if Georgia wins the SEC championship game - regardless of who they face.

Everything that can be said has been said, but one of the biggest arguments from anti-playoff people has been how the regular season is a playoff, and how creating an 8 or 16 team playoff will dilute that. This argument flies out the window if 'Bama makes the BCS CCG.

This is like the most extreme case scenario though (we've NEVER had a time when the top 3 BCS teams in late November were in the same division). I'm not sure a playoff is a better answer even in this case.

[CDu]

I think you guys, and most analysts, are underselling Oklahoma State's chances. The computers say the Big 12 is the best conference (and, based on the games the SEC played against 1-AA teams this weekend, I'm not sure that's incorrect), voters have shown willingness to change poll positions in the last week of the season to avoid a rematch (see: Ohio State/Michigan a few years ago), and Gundy can use the old Les Miles platitude of "my team is undefeated in regulation."

That's a fair point. Currently, OSU is ahead of Alabama in most of the computer rankings. So I'd guess a win over OU would keep them there. And perhaps such a win would be an excuse for the voters to vault them over Alabama into 2nd. Such a move would put them ahead in the polls and the computers, so they'd get in.

Of course, all this is assuming OSU beats Oklahoma.

Yeah, that's the part that's definitely in question.

[A-Tex Devil]

I think you guys, and most analysts, are underselling Oklahoma State's chances. The computers say the Big 12 is the best conference (and, based on the games the SEC played against 1-AA teams this weekend, I'm not sure that's incorrect), voters have shown willingness to change poll positions in the last week of the season to avoid a rematch (see: Ohio State/Michigan a few years ago), and Gundy can use the old Les Miles platitude of "my team is undefeated in regulation."

Of course, all this is assuming OSU beats Oklahoma.

The computers do love OSU. But 'Bama has a pretty hefty lead (half a point) on OSU. And that Iowa State loss was prime time for everyone to see. I think you are right that voters will want to vote someone past 'Bama if LSU wins out, but they'll really have to hold their nose to push the Cowboys ahead of the tide.

At the end of the day, 'Bama and LSU are probably just the 2 best teams. I would be unhappy to see a rematch, but I'm not sure it wouldn't be justified - especially if the rules allow it. They ought to schedule a third game, though, if 'Bama wins. Just to be fair.

[Olympic Fan]

While it does seem bizarre that a team that doesn't win its conference could win the national championship, it actually happens all he time in basketball.

North Carolina has won NCAA titles in 1993, 2005 and 2009 in years when they didn't win the ACC. Duke won its first national title (1991) in a year when they were blown out in the ACC title game.

Of course, it's a little easier to swallow when you have a legitimate playoff to determine a champion.

PS If we have to endure an LSU-Alabama rematch, okay ... but I don't ever want to hear a defender of the current system say, "If you have a playoff, it would devalue the regular season. The way it woks now, every game matters."

Except the way it's beginning to look, that first Alabama-LSU game didn't matter at all.

[Wander]

While it does seem bizarre that a team that doesn't win its conference could win the national championship, it actually happens all he time in basketball.

North Carolina has won NCAA titles in 1993, 2005 and 2009 in years when they didn't win the ACC. Duke won its first national title (1991) in a year when they were blown out in the ACC title game.

UNC won the ACC regular season title in 93, 05, and 09. Duke won the ACC regular season in 1991. I know the regular season championship isn't technically the ACC title, but I think it's closer in spirit to its football equivalent than the conference tournament titles.

All that said, I mostly agree with you. I don't think it was proven, for example, that Georgia wasn't better than LSU in 2007.

[ArkieDukie]

Just have to jump in here with a hearty GO HOGS! (I'm a lifelong Razorbacks fan.) Arkansas' only loss of the season was an absolute smackdown by Alabama, but they're an entirely different team now. They have finally gotten past their early-season habit of getting off to a slow start. The Arkansas-LSU game on Friday has the potential to be a classic. Hopefully it will be more interesting than the snoozefest that was the LSU-Alabama game earlier this year.

With that being said, I am afraid that LSU will beat the snot out of the Hogs on Friday, and I cannot see Auburn beating Alabama this year.

[hughgs]

While it does seem bizarre that a team that doesn't win its conference could win the national championship, it actually happens all he time in basketball.

North Carolina has won NCAA titles in 1993, 2005 and 2009 in years when they didn't win the ACC. Duke won its first national title (1991) in a year when they were blown out in the ACC title game.

Of course, it's a little easier to swallow when you have a legitimate playoff to determine a champion.

PS If we have to endure an LSU-Alabama rematch, okay ... but I don't ever want to hear a defender of the current system say, "If you have a playoff, it would devalue the regular season. The way it woks now, every game matters."

Except the way it's beginning to look, that first Alabama-LSU game didn't matter at all.

Thanks. As a fan of a play-off system and someone looking for as much chaos in the BCS as possible I now know who cheer for the rest of the season. Go 'Bama and LSU!

[snowdenscold]

They ought to schedule a third game, though, if 'Bama wins. Just to be fair.

Which is fairly common in other events outside football. I've been in that situation, where we were beaten the first go-round, and later at the end had to win twice in a row (3rd game contingent on winning the 2nd) to be champions. Which we did =)

Of course, the logistics and scheduling for the situation of college football make it particularly challenging - but I do like the idea.

[Highlander]

Weird scenario - if Arkansas beats LSU and Alabama beats Auburn, you now have the following in the SEC West:
Three one loss teams.
Alabama lost to LSU, who lost to Arkansas, who lost to Alabama.

So who plays in the SEC Championship game? My understanding is that it would be the team with the highest BCS ranking. Since those three teams are 1,2, and 3 in the BCS this week, it's anybody's guess. However, I think it is entirely possible that Alabama would now be playing for the CC instead of LSU in that scenario. So now LSU gets to sit back and coast into the NC and watch Bama sweat out a trap game vs. the "other" Georgia.

Unless LSU loses their last 2 games of the season, I think they are in the NC game. I just can't find two one loss teams out there that are better than LSU, especially after the schedule they played this year with three top 5 games, 2 of which were away from home.

As much as I prefer Bama to LSU, I don't want to see a rematch. Bama may be the #2 team in the country, but I don't think that one conference should ever have both shots at the NC without a playoff, nor do I think Alabama should get rewarded with a NC shot after failing to even win their DIVISION of the SEC. That being said, I'm not sure that anyone in the country has a legitimate shot to beat LSU on a neutral field, so it may be irrelevant who the Tigers opponent will be.

BTW, why on earth is Bama playing cupcakes like Georgia Southern the second to last week of the year?

[burnspbesq]

Go Hawgs. Go Dawgs. War Eagle. Boomer Sooner.

Let's have Virginia Tech vs. Stanford for the National Championship, and watch overripe heads explode all over SEC-land.

[A-Tex Devil]

Weird scenario - if Arkansas beats LSU and Alabama beats Auburn, you now have the following in the SEC West:
Three one loss teams.
Alabama lost to LSU, who lost to Arkansas, who lost to Alabama.

So who plays in the SEC Championship game? My understanding is that it would be the team with the highest BCS ranking. Since those three teams are 1,2, and 3 in the BCS this week, it's anybody's guess. However, I think it is entirely possible that Alabama would now be playing for the CC instead of LSU in that scenario. So now LSU gets to sit back and coast into the NC and watch Bama sweat out a trap game vs. the "other" Georgia.

Unless LSU loses their last 2 games of the season, I think they are in the NC game. I just can't find two one loss teams out there that are better than LSU, especially after the schedule they played this year with three top 5 games, 2 of which were away from home.

As much as I prefer Bama to LSU, I don't want to see a rematch. Bama may be the #2 team in the country, but I don't think that one conference should ever have both shots at the NC without a playoff, nor do I think Alabama should get rewarded with a NC shot after failing to even win their DIVISION of the SEC. That being said, I'm not sure that anyone in the country has a legitimate shot to beat LSU on a neutral field, so it may be irrelevant who the Tigers opponent will be.

It's weird, but it's also the exact same thing that happened to the Big XII 3 years ago. The only difference is that OU, Texas and Tech were a bit more stratified in the BCS than 'Bama, LSU and Arkansas.

Other thoughts:

- Don't count out Arkansas this weekend. West Virginia was able to score some on LS. Holgerson's offense is similar to Petrino, and Petrino has better players.

- I'll be screaming "War Eagle" simply because I don't want to see 'Bama in the title game.

- Va Tech is sitting back quietly, though, if 'Bama, Arkansas and Okie State fall.

- If Okie State smokes Oklahoma (big if), perhaps the voters' short memories may kick in to help avoid the rematch and boost Okie State above a one loss 'Bama. The computers already like the Cowboys. A close win won't do it, though.

BTW, why on earth is Bama playing cupcakes like Georgia Southern the second to last week of the year?

SEC teams do this a lot --- play their cupcake games in October/November. LSU played Western Kentucky immediately after 'Bama. I don't think it's a bad idea to break up the rough SEC schedule.

[DU82]

I thought that only two teams from a conference could play in BCS bowls. So if Georgia wins the SEC championship, that would lock out two of the three SEC west teams. Or have the rules changed (again.)

[acciconoclast]

Um, Ga Southern is no cupcake. Were 9-1 coming into game.I'm sure Nick Saban is SCREAMING at his AD for scheduling this game. Bama had been giving up 60ypg rushing--GSU had over 300 on 39 carries. GSU Could have dropped 35+ points on Bama pretty easily. The coach at GSU (2nd year) is a Paul Johnson protege. There is an online nick Saban postgame GSU presser where at times he seems slightly shocked at what GSU did to them and lavishes profuse praise on GSU. Should keep an eye on this GSU coach Monken for possibly down the road at Duke IMO

But yes we NEED a playoff yesterday.

Here is the Saban pres conference I referred to
http://http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2011/11/nick_saban_on_win_over_georgia.html

That is high praise from nick Saban