I feel #6 is about right for where the team will end up in the final season poll. I wouldn't be shocked if we move down a few after a tough early schedule but then again we have a chance to move up a good bit as well. A solid ranking of #6 and a 2 seed that keeps us close to home in the tournament would put us in a pretty good place to make a run in the tournament. We always have a good shot at winning the ACC tourney of course so there's even an outside chance that we can sneak a #1 seed (especially if we beat UNC in the tournament) but that might be wishful thinking.
Either way this is going to be a fun year. I'm jonesing for some basketball right now.
5-3 by sunset October 29. Go Duke!
THEN I can start diverting part (but only part) of my attention to the all important questions that will plague me for the remainder of 2011:
1) Can Austin Rivers be as good as advertised, and, if so, how much of a difference-maker can that be for us?
2) Can the Plumlees and Andre Dawkins find that all important consistency?
3) Will we be able to apply the kind of on-the-ball defensive pressure we want with a starting perimeter of Curry-Dawk-Rivers?
4) Will Ryan Kelly turn into the second coming of Danny Ferry (and if he does, does that mean Coach K surgically implanted a mean streak in him, and, if so, is that a violation of NCAA rules)?
Good morning ladies and gentlemen,
My first post. The number 6 ranking is based more on Mike Krzyzewski than the returning team, that and the hype surrounding Austin. And, I think it's justified. Coach K gets the most out of his lineups. I do expect Duke to drop in the rankings somewhat before January just due to the fact that players who were supporting last year will have to lead this year. Until those players (Curry, Kelly and Miles P.) get used to that situation, Duke may lose a few early (tough schedule, especially in the Maui). Miles won't be a problem but he may be expected to handle 1-on-1 offensive duties which he is capable of but won't set the world on fire.
Where this outsider sees problems is defensively. Duke either plays great D or they don't make a big run in the NCAA's. I really wonder about the lineup. Does Duke go with a "big" team where Ryan Kelly plays the 3 or does Coach K settle with 3 guards, using Mason P. in a 3-man rotation at the 4 and 5? If I'm coaching against Duke, I would test a 3 guard lineup but trying to post my tallest guard/wing inside to see if Austin Rivers is ready for the war. He will be in March but that's a long way off. If Ryan Kelly moves to the 3, teams will insert a quick wing or guard and run him around.
How well and when the Duke defense settles in and solves any problems will be the key to whether the team can hold a top 6 ranking or not. If Duke is still 6th or better by March, then the coaching staff will find a way to make a big push. I don't see a title this year but who knows, other teams could have injuries, attitude problems or tough seeding against the right cinderella which could pave the way to a final 4 for Duke.
UVA fan since 1976.
Welcome. I think the #6 ranking is in part due to Coach K, in part due to Rivers, in part due to the returning talent, and in part due to the lack of any clear cut alternatives. I mean, who would you put comfortably ahead of Duke at #6?
I don't think we'll see much (if any) lineups involving both Plumlees and Kelly on the floor together. We're too deep at the guard and wing spots and Kelly/Plumlee/Plumlee would likely have us a bit slow at the 4 and very slow at the 3. It'd also congest things on the offensive end. I think we'll see Dawkins a lot at the 3 with Murphy and/or Gbinije filling in the rest of the time there.
Also, I don't think most teams have a guard/wing who is comfortable posting up. UNC does. UVa might with Harrell. But most teams' wings are perimeter-oriented. I'd rather have a team try to post up Rivers than run their preferred offense. And remember - Rivers won't likely be guarding the "3." Dawkins (who has had lots of experience guarding Singler) and Murphy/Gbinije will be.
Given how bad the ACC is likely to be, I don't think we'll see a lot of threat to Duke being in the top-6 by season's end. We're likely to pile up the wins in conference. We may lose 2 non-conference games early this year, but we should do pretty well in the ACC. And given the question marks with the rest of the teams after UNC, UK, OSU, and UConn, I don't see anyone jumping up and bumping us down to far.
While I know it's not completely out of the realm of possibility, I don't see Duke playing 2 power forwards anytime except as an experiment in a blowout of because something has gone terribly wrong. Coach K has gone to the three guard lineup plenty though so I expect to see that. If anyone is going to end up going against a taller guard it's going to be Dawkins who has decent enough height, great athleticism, and has built some good muscle at this point. Austin has ok height but as a freshman needs some time to bulk up. If I was a coach trying to cause trouble with Duke's three guard lineup, I definitely wouldn't want to match him guard for guard. Instead, I'd put a 6'7"-6'9" wing on the floor if possible and try to force Duke to play an inexperienced Murphy or Gbinije. There's an outside chance Duke could use Hairston at the 3 although I think he's better situated at the 4 if they do go big since I think Kelly is too slow to guard wings.
I don't think scoring will be an issue often for this Duke team so you're absolutely right that the ability to get stops on defense could make all the difference this year.
I'd say that Hairston at the 3 is basically as unlikely as Kelly at the 3. And I think Kelly at the 3 is REALLY unlikely. Hairston is going to be the second backup at one of the two post spots (a distant second to the guy who doesn't start among Kelly/Miles/Mason).
I agree with the rest, although I'd note that not a ton of teams have a 6'7"-6'9" wing capable of forcing us to go bigger.
Ryan did play a little bit at the 3 during his freshman year and he presumably practiced at the 3 as well that year (with a 2nd team of Curry, Dawkins, and the 2 Plumlees). But I agree that it's very unlikely that he'll spend any time there. I feel comfortable with a 3-man rotation at the 4 and 5 spots and a 5-man rotation at the 1-3 spots. I doubt K will go much beyond that -- he might not even go 5 deep at the 1-3 spots.
I'm sure that people last season were sick of hearing how duke was going to "take it all", and "unanimous #1" and "pre-season favorite", and that they "might run the table"....
cause i'm pretty sick of hearing the same thing about the Tar Heels...
ugh...let's just get it on and see what's what....
"One POSSIBLE future. From your point of view... I don't know tech stuff.".... Kyle Reese
See that's the thing about the Tar Heels, when they have a good team that's all you hear and they all swear they're going undefeated (read espn posts) and how they'll cut the nets down, blah blah blah but once they get beat they disappear. It's hilarious really. I'm glad Duke isn't at the top of the list this year, it's a nice change once in a while.
The AP poll is now out. Like the Coach's poll, AP has us at #6.
Top 7 in the AP and Coach's polls are identical--
- UNC
- Kentucky
- Ohio State
- UConn
- Syracuse
- Duke
- Vandy
-Jason "FSU is #26 in the AP poll... no other ACC team even got votes... sigh" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
what kind of warranty comes with that #1 ranking...
just wondering...
"One POSSIBLE future. From your point of view... I don't know tech stuff.".... Kyle Reese
Let's just hope it does not end that way.