Some notes on K's press conference, 8-31-11

[OldPhiKap]

You can be as condescending as you like with your talk of dark-blue prisms and message-board fans, but the cold reality is that a 7-footer with outstanding athletics who can run the floor, finish in transition, rebound, bang down low and played at a top-5 program has an excellent chance of finding a place on an NBA bench.
I think some people on message boards go too far in the other direction in order to seem more objective and claim a superior perspective than others.

If that's what he does this year at a consistently high level of productivity, you are certainly correct. And I don't think that Jim is saying anything different. I am not sure we've seen those skills at the level you suggest. YET.

We all hope he has an incredible break-out year. And I am very glad that he plays for Duke, no matter what happens. But if you look at the power forwards in the NBA, or the bodies on centers, you'd have to admit that there is a ways to go.

On another point, I'm not sure that Jim ever claimed to have a superior perspective than others. But most think he does (myself included), regardless.

[jimsumner]

You can be as condescending as you like with your talk of dark-blue prisms and message-board fans, but the cold reality is that a 7-footer with outstanding athletics who can run the floor, finish in transition, rebound, bang down low and played at a top-5 program has an excellent chance of finding a place on an NBA bench.

I think some people on message boards go too far in the other direction in order to seem more objective and claim a superior perspective than others.

I'm sorry you think I'm condescending. Not my intention. Fan message boards do have different dynamics than other forms of discourse and people do see things through the prism of their allegiances. In my opinion. You're welcome to think otherwise.

Again, I'll be delighted when the 7-footer with outstanding athletics runs the floor, finishes in transition, rebounds and bangs down low with enough consistency to actually warrant NBA attention. But right now, the very best I can say about Miles is that he has not yet been able to leverage his considerable assets into a commensurate on-court performance. When he does, the equation changes.

Can he make the NBA? Sure. Does he have an "excellent" chance, based on what he has done on the court so far? That's a different kettle of fish. I'm sure you see the difference.

My first comment on the subject stated that I thought Miles would need more than a "solid" senior season to show up in the NBA draft. I stand by that statement.

[MChambers]

Depends on your definition of great. Amaker was an outstanding defender and a great passer, but wasn't all that good a dribble-penetrator and was not a scorer. Snyder could run a team but was not considered by pretty much anyone to be one of the top PGs in the country. Scheyer was no more a "true point" than Seth Curry is. Duhon couldn't shoot. The OP also left out Jeff Capel, Duke's PG on the 1994 national finalists, who was a decent player but not by a long shot considered one of the best PGs in the country (and was a freshman, to boot).

And that's just Duke. A great many Final Four teams over the past (name your number of) years have not had a PG who was considered one of the best. Sure, it would help, but I stand by my statement that the idea of needing a great PG to "go far in March" is a myth.

Thanks to Kedsy, who managed to explain my reasoning awfully well. Jim, I think the world of Amaker, Snyder, and Scheyer, and will be eternally grateful that they went to Duke, but by most definitions of great point guard, they weren't great. Certainly not in the sense that the OP meant: someone who can create offense out of nothing.

Personally, I think Seth will be very good, but not as good as Hurley, Jason Wiiliams, and Irving. That's all I was trying to say.

[jimsumner]

Thanks to Kedsy, who managed to explain my reasoning awfully well. Jim, I think the world of Amaker, Snyder, and Scheyer, and will be eternally grateful that they went to Duke, but by most definitions of great point guard, they weren't great. Certainly not in the sense that the OP meant: someone who can create offense out of nothing.

Personally, I think Seth will be very good, but not as good as Hurley, Jason Wiiliams, and Irving. That's all I was trying to say.

I agree. I think the question is does Curry have to be at the Hurley/Williams/Irving level for Duke to play deep into March? I think history suggests that it sure would help matters but isn't essential, if the supporting talent base is sufficiently accomplished.

Scheyer may be the closest analog, although Scheyer's height advantage over Curry shouldn't be discounted. A combo guard by nature, Scheyer certainly didn't create as many shots for his teammates as Hurley (who did?). But he valued the ball, didn't make a lot of mistakes and got the ball where it needed to be, when it needed to be there. In 2010 he averaged 4.9 assists per game and had a marvelous 3:1 assist/turnover ratio, all the while scoring a team-leading 18.2 ppg and leading the team in steals by a wide margin.

I'll take that.

It might be a reach to expect Curry to play at that level but I think he can be effective in the same manner as Jon was in 2010. Will Duke have players like Singler and Smith to interact with Curry as they did with Scheyer? A big question.

[SilkyJ]

You can be as condescending as you like with your talk of dark-blue prisms and message-board fans, but the cold reality is that a 7-footer with outstanding athletics who can run the floor, finish in transition, rebound, bang down low and played at a top-5 program has an excellent chance of finding a place on an NBA bench.

Not sure why you call it a cold reality. We're all Duke fans. We're all rooting for Miles. We all hope it happens...most of us just disagree with you, and would LOVE to be proven wrong. He has certainly improved every year, and nothing would make me happier than to see him have a breakout year, ala Zoubs in 2010. But realistically, I expect him to continue on that incremental improvement track, rather than make a quantum leap, which is what I think it would take to get a sniff from the L.

Now here's a cold reality: Jim Sumner probably has a better idea of what NBA scouts think of Duke's players than you (or most of us) do. Don't take as a swipe against you, its just credit to Jim. He does this stuff for a living. He knows what he's talking about.

Also, this is a little nitpicky, but Miles isn't a 7 footer. He's not even the tallest guy on the team (or in his family!)

[OldSchool]

If that's what he does this year at a consistently high level of productivity, you are certainly correct. And I don't think that Jim is saying anything different. I am not sure we've seen those skills at the level you suggest. YET.

We all hope he has an incredible break-out year. And I am very glad that he plays for Duke, no matter what happens. But if you look at the power forwards in the NBA, or the bodies on centers, you'd have to admit that there is a ways to go.

THAT is at least the proper frame of reference. Speaking of Miles's NBA prospects with reference to guards is absurd.

If Miles has a "solid" year, I see him being viewed as comparable to a guy like, say, Sasha Kaun from Kansas, and could see him being picked up as a late second-rounder as Kaun was. I think he is actually a better athlete than Kaun.

If Miles has a "strong" year, I could see him being seen as comparable to a guy like Tyler Zeller of UNC or Hilton Armstrong of UConn, and maybe being taken at the end of the first round or early in the second.

[OldSchool]

Not sure why you call it a cold reality. We're all Duke fans. We're all rooting for Miles. We all hope it happens...most of us just disagree with you, and would LOVE to be proven wrong. He has certainly improved every year, and nothing would make me happier than to see him have a breakout year, ala Zoubs in 2010. But realistically, I expect him to continue on that incremental improvement track, rather than make a quantum leap, which is what I think it would take to get a sniff from the L.

Now here's a cold reality: Jim Sumner probably has a better idea of what NBA scouts think of Duke's players than you (or most of us) do. Don't take as a swipe against you, its just credit to Jim. He does this stuff for a living. He knows what he's talking about.

Also, this is a little nitpicky, but Miles isn't a 7 footer. He's not even the tallest guy on the team (or in his family!)

Well, we clearly disagree. I think continued incremental and consistent improvement will get Miles a look from the league, he does not have to make a quantum leap.

We've seen it over and over in the NBA draft, it always surprises people how they will take take athleticism over someone who may not be much of an athlete but has a high basketball IQ.

Hopefully Miles will show off some high basketball IQ to go with his athletic abilities this year.

[OldPhiKap]

THAT is at least the proper frame of reference. Speaking of Miles's NBA prospects with reference to guards is absurd.

If Miles has a "solid" year, I see him being viewed as comparable to a guy like, say, Sasha Kaun from Kansas, and could see him being picked up as a late second-rounder as Kaun was. I think he is actually a better athlete than Kaun.

If Miles has a "strong" year, I could see him being seen as comparable to a guy like Tyler Zeller of UNC or Hilton Armstrong of UConn, and maybe being taken at the end of the first round or early in the second.

Not sure what this means. I was talking about forwards and centers, and you read it to mean I was talking about guards. Am I reading that wrong?

[OldSchool]

Not sure what this means. I was talking about forwards and centers, and you read it to mean I was talking about guards. Am I reading that wrong?

You were talking about what Jim was saying, and I was making the point that at least YOU were correctly speaking with reference to bigs, as opposed to comparing Miles' NBA prospects with Malcolm Delaney or DeMarcus Nelson.

[OldPhiKap]

You were talking about what Jim was saying, and I was making the point that at least YOU were correctly speaking with reference to bigs, as opposed to comparing Miles' NBA prospects with Malcolm Delaney or DeMarcus Nelson.

Sorry, though that was directed at my comment. Thanks for the explanation.

Not to speak for Jim, but I assume he was talking about level of talent as opposed to position.

We all love Miles, and I think he is a very good player. Could jump to an even higher level this year. I think you and I would agree (as well as Jim) that Miles needs to bring it consistentlly to really draw the NBA scouts' interest. Hope it happens.

Go Duke, and let's beat Richmond on Saturday!

[OldSchool]

Not to speak for Jim, but I assume he was talking about level of talent as opposed to position.

But that's my point - one has to have such a higher level of talent to make the league as a guard, it's not a meaningful comparison.

Can you imagine what Malcolm Delaney would be like if he had the same level of talent -- shooting, dribbling, basketball IQ and athletic ability in the body of a seven-footer? He would be a perennial NBA all-star. But as a 6'3" guy, he waited by the phone and no one called. Maybe he'll make it in Europe.

Conversely, take a guy like Samuel Dalembert. If he were 6'3", he might have trouble staying on the court in a good pick-up league instead of making millions in the NBA.

Other than that point, I agree with the rest of what you are saying.

[Reilly]

How does Miles compare to Shav at this juncture?

[OldPhiKap]

But that's my point - one has to have such a higher level of talent to make the league as a guard, it's not a meaningful comparison.

Can you imagine what Malcolm Delaney would be like if he had the same level of talent -- shooting, dribbling, basketball IQ and athletic ability in the body of a seven-footer? He would be a perennial NBA all-star. But as a 6'3" guy, he waited by the phone and no one called. Maybe he'll make it in Europe.

Conversely, take a guy like Samuel Dalembert. If he were 6'3", he might have trouble staying on the court in a good pick-up league instead of making millions in the NBA.

Other than that point, I agree with the rest of what you are saying.

I don't think we disagree -- unless you're saying that Miles has the same level of shooting, dribbling, and athletic ability as Malcom. (I think Miles more than holds his own agianst anyone in terms of basketball IQ although the silly reach fouls need to come down this year).

I don't want to fight someone else's fight -- Jim is a heck of a lot smarter and more articulate than I am -- but I think that's the disagreement he had with your post. Not that there's a difference in the positions, or that Miles would not be a great NBA player if he showed those talents on a consistent basis. It's the notion that his play to date has established a claim to that consistency is where I see y'all's disagreement.

Miles' junior year in many ways reminds me of Casey Sanders' senior year -- another guy who had very good physical ability, height, speed, and basketball IQ. And Casey averaged about 5 ppg and 5 rpg his senior year, similar to Miles lasy year, albeit Casey played behind Carlos. Miles certainly can make the big senior step forward -- many do, especially in the Duke system -- but I think many (Jim and I included) are looking to see consistency in the flashes he has shown. I truly believe he can do it.

So I do not think that the two of you necessarily disagree. I take it that you believe Miles is already there, and that Jim is taking more of a wait-and-see view of it. Hopefully you are ahead of the curve, and Miles has a Zoubek-like dominant run in the back half of the season. Very few thought that the foul-prone, injury-prone Zubeck of junior year would hit his stride like he did after the Maryland game near the end of his senior year. I can assure you, without ever having met Jim, that he is hoping for the same.

-- OPK

[OldPhiKap]

How does Miles compare to Shav at this juncture?

I'll take Miles. By a kilometer and a third or more.

[OldSchool]

I think Miles more than holds his own agianst anyone in terms of basketball IQ although the silly reach fouls need to come down this year.

I may well have quite a different opinion than most other folks on DBR on this point, but I think basketball IQ is precisely the area Miles needs the most improvement over last year and would be the difference between a guy who sits on the end of an NBA bench and someone who gets substantial minutes on the floor for an NBA team.

If I were coach, I would make Miles a captain and stress his responsibility on the defensive end to understand the other team, call out defensive tasks and hold the other players accountable and be the last line of defense. I think those responsibilities might help Miles raise his mental focus and his basketball IQ.

One of the reasons I am more impressed with Miles than I have been before is what I saw on the China trip. Yes, it is a very limited data set and against weak competition but I've noticed that he seems much more likely to be in the right spot on the floor to make a play than before and he is moving more quickly to get into those positions than before. If he keeps it up he is going to impress a lot more people this year.

[Andy7207]

nbadraft.net has Miles going late second round, for what it's worth!

http://www.nbadraft.net/2012mock_draft

[MCFinARL]

nbadraft.net has Miles going late second round, for what it's worth!

http://www.nbadraft.net/2012mock_draft

Interestingly, nbadraft.net also shows Olek Czyz going in the second round, and Austin Rivers undrafted (do they believe he will stay in school?). Of course, this is getting a little off thread...

[MChambers]

I agree. I think the question is does Curry have to be at the Hurley/Williams/Irving level for Duke to play deep into March? I think history suggests that it sure would help matters but isn't essential, if the supporting talent base is sufficiently accomplished.

Scheyer may be the closest analog, although Scheyer's height advantage over Curry shouldn't be discounted. A combo guard by nature, Scheyer certainly didn't create as many shots for his teammates as Hurley (who did?). But he valued the ball, didn't make a lot of mistakes and got the ball where it needed to be, when it needed to be there. In 2010 he averaged 4.9 assists per game and had a marvelous 3:1 assist/turnover ratio, all the while scoring a team-leading 18.2 ppg and leading the team in steals by a wide margin.

I'll take that.

It might be a reach to expect Curry to play at that level but I think he can be effective in the same manner as Jon was in 2010. Will Duke have players like Singler and Smith to interact with Curry as they did with Scheyer? A big question.

The other big difference between Curry and Scheyer is that Curry is better equipped to pressure the other team's point. In 2010, although Scheyer played point on offense, Nolan did most of the ball pressure on the other team's point. Scheyer was an excellent defensive player, but was better at covering shooting guards.

It's defense I worry most about this season, because Singler and Smith were both excellent defenders. How we replace their defense will be key.

[Kedsy]

It's defense I worry most about this season, because Singler and Smith were both excellent defenders. How we replace their defense will be key.

I agree. This team will go as far as its defense takes it. I think we'll go back to Duke's traditional D: Seth and Austin harassing opponent ballhandlers, going for steals and trying to push them further out than they're used to starting their offense (while the remaining players jam the passing lanes). When the opponent gets past Seth or Austin and into the lane, one big will have to step up and intimidate or block the shot while the other will have to rotate over and stop the dropoff or backdoor. How well our bigs do this (and to a lesser extent how well Andre can stick with his man and not allow him to be a safety valve) will determine how fearsome our defense becomes.

I think Miles is there, Ryan is almost there, and Mason is closer than a lot of people think. So I have hopes that we have potential to be even stronger on defense than we were last year, despite the loss of our two best defenders. May not happen, of course. Only time will tell.

[jimsumner]

The other big difference between Curry and Scheyer is that Curry is better equipped to pressure the other team's point. In 2010, although Scheyer played point on offense, Nolan did most of the ball pressure on the other team's point. Scheyer was an excellent defensive player, but was better at covering shooting guards.

It's defense I worry most about this season, because Singler and Smith were both excellent defenders. How we replace their defense will be key.

In fairness, Smith performed the same role last season when he and Curry were paired together. Nolan usually would guard the opposing team's best offensive guard.

Like Scheyer, Curry lacks elite foot speed. But like Scheyer, he compensates with a high hoops IQ and a great sense of anticipation. Curry has this neat trick of slipping a hand in, deflecting a dribble, and heading the other way with ball in hand.

The ACC doesn't have a lot of super-quick, blow-by points this season. Kendall Marshall is a top PG but doesn't have Lawson-type speed. Durand Scott has a huge size advantage but I'm not sure he's a natural point. Same with Lorenzo Brown. How worried should Duke be by Jontel Evans or Tony Chennault or Andre Young? The ACC just doesn't have the Feltons or Pauls or Vasquezs it has had in the recent past.

Of course, that won't help much come the NCAAs, when Duke likely will have to get by someone more accomplished than Erick Green in order to advance deep. Hopefully, by then Curry will have it all figured out defensively.

I very much agree that defense will define how fat this team can go. Lots of scoring weapons, good rebounders inside, good ball-handlers. Can Duke stop good teams when it has to?