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Thread: Kelly in China

  1. #1
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    Feb 2007
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    Kelly in China

    We are months from a meaningful game, but Ryan's play reminds me why off-season lineup guesses may be fun but definitely premature. Of course, it's also premature to pencil RK in as a 32 minute a game guy based on his play in August (or to pencil in Miles AND Ryan ahead of Mason), but it is interesting.

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    We are months from a meaningful game, but Ryan's play reminds me why off-season lineup guesses may be fun but definitely premature. Of course, it's also premature to pencil RK in as a 32 minute a game guy based on his play in August (or to pencil in Miles AND Ryan ahead of Mason), but it is interesting.
    I'm guessing you are being deliberately hyperbolic here, to emphasize your point that what is interesting is also altogether speculative right now.

    Just to be clear, even if one of our 3 main inside players - Miles, Mason, Ryan - breaks ahead of the other 2, it's very unlikely that any of them would average 32 mpg. If we assume Josh might get some PT, then the Bigs-3 would be splitting maybe 72-75 mpg. Probably in any particular game, any 1 of the 3 might play as much as 30 minutes [though even that would surely be infrequent], but that player might vary from game to game, depending on matchups, who's hot, short-term injury, foul situation, etc. It's even conceivable [translated as: speculative] that Josh might make it Bigs-4, or at least every once in a while play 15-20 minutes in some game[s].

    Speculating further, I imagine an emerging consensus on EK that K will gradually winnow by mid-season to a basic 8-rotation, expanding to 9-perhaps, even 10-vaguely-possibly, with the regular-8th guy emerging from, and those 9th/10th guys rotating among: Hairston, Gbinije, Murphy, Cook. My speculation does leave out MP3, who, I have posted elsewhere, will likely play a lot in 2012-13. Roughly speaking, Marshall's years at Duke may profitably mirror that of thread-relevant Ryan Kelly. How closely will depend on who leaves when, who arrives when.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    We are months from a meaningful game, but Ryan's play reminds me why off-season lineup guesses may be fun but definitely premature. Of course, it's also premature to pencil RK in as a 32 minute a game guy based on his play in August (or to pencil in Miles AND Ryan ahead of Mason), but it is interesting.
    Ah, yes, the requisite Nick Horvath warning on preseason practice observations! Well done sir. I personally disagree, and think we will see Ryan preform at this level, and perhaps even higher, as the season progresses, but we have been warned!
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

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  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    We are months from a meaningful game, but Ryan's play reminds me why off-season lineup guesses may be fun but definitely premature. Of course, it's also premature to pencil RK in as a 32 minute a game guy based on his play in August (or to pencil in Miles AND Ryan ahead of Mason), but it is interesting.
    In fairness, I think most people figured Kelly would start for us this year. But I don't think anyone expects Kelly (or any of the bigs) to average 32mpg this year, even after the two big games in China.

    The fact that Miles has started over Mason is the more surprising development. But that I think is much more variable (and more surprising) than Kelly starting and playing well.

    I don't doubt that Kelly will be a starter and double-digit scorer for us this year. I would be surprised if Miles is the other starter (I expect Mason to take the job back), so that will fun to watch moving forward.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    In fairness, I think most people figured Kelly would start for us this year. But I don't think anyone expects Kelly (or any of the bigs) to average 32mpg this year, even after the two big games in China.

    The fact that Miles has started over Mason is the more surprising development. But that I think is much more variable (and more surprising) than Kelly starting and playing well.

    I don't doubt that Kelly will be a starter and double-digit scorer for us this year. I would be surprised if Miles is the other starter (I expect Mason to take the job back), so that will fun to watch moving forward.
    You are probably right. Here's the thing about Miles, though (caveat: based purely on what I have read or seen on TV, with no first-hand knowledge): although his performance may vary, his attitude and work ethic don't appear to. He is always working, trying for loose balls, doing whatever he can to stay involved and contribute to the team. As the only senior on this team, he is starting out modeling hustle and effort--which are important (and maybe even captainly) hallmarks of Duke teams. I could see him holding this starting spot for a while, even if he is the first person subbed out with Mason coming in early in games.

    PS--I realize I maybe taking thread off topic here. Apologies.

  6. #6
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    Norfolk, VA
    Ryan Kelly looked real good in the second game so I'm optimistic he will make a sophomore to junior leap a la Nolan Smith. As a diehard Duke fan, I sure hope that happens. From a leadership by example perspective, I would not be surprised to see Kelly named Team Captain (or Co-Captain) later this summer. The coaching staff has to be impressed with his continued development.

    In regard to Miles and Mason, I've been a long time proponent of Miles due to his interior defense. IMO, he is the best low post big man we have on the defensive end of the court and he deserves to be in the starting line-up. If he can develop some offensive consistency with the jump hook and 8-10 foot jumper, he could be on his way to a superb senior campaign. That left-handed jump hook he knocked down yesterday was impressive.

    To be clear, my preference to see Miles start, should not be construed as a negative toward Mason. Mason is uber-athletic and has a huge upside but it appears something hasn't clicked. Once the click happens in Mason's head (visions of Paul Newman just went through my scatter brain), he will be bad news for our opponents. Hopefully, the click happens this season.

    Ultimately, when it comes to the minutes per game statistic for Miles and Mason, and to a lesser degree Ryan, foul trouble will be the major determinant. All three are going to play major minutes every game this season if they can stay out of foul trouble.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Ryan Kelly looked real good in the second game so I'm optimistic he will make a sophomore to junior leap a la Nolan Smith. As a diehard Duke fan, I sure hope that happens. From a leadership by example perspective, I would not be surprised to see Kelly named Team Captain (or Co-Captain) later this summer. The coaching staff has to be impressed with his continued development.

    In regard to Miles and Mason, I've been a long time proponent of Miles due to his interior defense. IMO, he is the best low post big man we have on the defensive end of the court and he deserves to be in the starting line-up. If he can develop some offensive consistency with the jump hook and 8-10 foot jumper, he could be on his way to a superb senior campaign. That left-handed jump hook he knocked down yesterday was impressive.

    To be clear, my preference to see Miles start, should not be construed as a negative toward Mason. Mason is uber-athletic and has a huge upside but it appears something hasn't clicked. Once the click happens in Mason's head (visions of Paul Newman just went through my scatter brain), he will be bad news for our opponents. Hopefully, the click happens this season.

    Ultimately, when it comes to the minutes per game statistic for Miles and Mason, and to a lesser degree Ryan, foul trouble will be the major determinant. All three are going to play major minutes every game this season if they can stay out of foul trouble.
    Bob, I agree with your assessment. I hope Mason has that Alaa Abdelnaby type moment. Remember how he just seemed to get it one day and from that point on had a fantastic year?

  8. #8
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    Mason

    Quote Originally Posted by oldnavy View Post
    Bob, I agree with your assessment. I hope Mason has that Alaa Abdelnaby type moment. Remember how he just seemed to get it one day and from that point on had a fantastic year?
    I actually think Mason gets a lot of it, but he really struggles on offense, especially as to scoring. His rebounding is excellent and his defense improved greatly last year. He's a decent ballhandler for his size and makes some very nice passes. But he can't shoot to save his life and I think that influences all of his offensive play. In particular, I think he's scared to get fouled, because he has to go to the line. (I think this was one of Chris Webber's problems as a player.) I was pleased to see earlier this summer that Miles said that Mason was learning to play through contact. He's got to do that if he's going to contribute in the low post.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    In fairness, I think most people figured Kelly would start for us this year. But I don't think anyone expects Kelly (or any of the bigs) to average 32mpg this year, even after the two big games in China.

    The fact that Miles has started over Mason is the more surprising development. But that I think is much more variable (and more surprising) than Kelly starting and playing well.

    I don't doubt that Kelly will be a starter and double-digit scorer for us this year. I would be surprised if Miles is the other starter (I expect Mason to take the job back), so that will fun to watch moving forward.
    I've never understood why everyone is so down on Miles. Even when he does good everyone seems to just be waiting for him to screw up or Mason to perform better. Wasn't Miles a starter last year at the end of the season? Seems to me it's his position to lose...except for the fact that everyone has to earn their spot, but you know what I mean.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    To be clear, my preference to see Miles start, should not be construed as a negative toward Mason. Mason is uber-athletic and has a huge upside but it appears something hasn't clicked. Once the click happens in Mason's head (visions of Paul Newman just went through my scatter brain), he will be bad news for our opponents. Hopefully, the click happens this season.
    Even without the "click," Mason is bad news for our opponents. I was watching the highlights this morning and I said to myself -- we have something special going on when Mason Plumlee is the 6th best player on our team.

  11. #11

    a stretch, but...

    I wish Mason would embrace his inner Rodman. With his size and athleticism Mason could be a dominate defender and rebounder.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by OZZIE4DUKE View Post
    Ah, yes, the requisite Nick Horvath warning on preseason practice observations! Well done sir. I personally disagree, and think we will see Ryan preform at this level, and perhaps even higher, as the season progresses, but we have been warned!
    I agree with our esteemed Paradigm of Optimism. IMO RK's game improved greatly between his freshman and sophomore seasons. If he improved to a similar degree during this off-season, he will be a significant contributor this year. I was a HUGE fan of his game last year and look forward to seeing continued improvement.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scorp4me View Post
    I've never understood why everyone is so down on Miles. Even when he does good everyone seems to just be waiting for him to screw up or Mason to perform better. Wasn't Miles a starter last year at the end of the season? Seems to me it's his position to lose...except for the fact that everyone has to earn their spot, but you know what I mean.
    I'm not at all down on Miles. I was just expecting Mason to be the better player of the two. Both can be good, but only 2 of the 3 main bigs can start.

    Also, I don't know why you'd say it's Miles' position to lose. Mason started 32 games last year compared with Miles's 15. Obviously everyone has to earn their spot, but wouldn't the logical assumption (with no new information, of course) be that the bigs who started most last year would start most this year too?

    Given that Kelly and Mason each started about twice as many games as Miles, it would seem logical to me that both would be the expected starters to start the year. Thus, I think Miles starting over Mason is surprising. It's not a knock on Miles, but an acknowledgement that Mason showed more last year.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by nmduke2001 View Post
    I wish Mason would embrace his inner Rodman. With his size and athleticism Mason could be a dominate defender and rebounder.
    WOW! It's pretty hard to imagine Mason with pink hair in a wedding dress...

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by OZZIE4DUKE View Post
    we will see Ryan preform at this level, and perhaps even higher, as the season progresses
    He does look terrific. Much more coordinated and pulled together. He's getting the knack of being where the ball is and where the ball is about to go, just like Kyle.
    Suddenly, I'm in a much better frame of mind. Except for those new smilies, yikes!

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I'm not at all down on Miles. I was just expecting Mason to be the better player of the two. Both can be good, but only 2 of the 3 main bigs can start.

    Also, I don't know why you'd say it's Miles' position to lose. Mason started 32 games last year compared with Miles's 15. Obviously everyone has to earn their spot, but wouldn't the logical assumption (with no new information, of course) be that the bigs who started most last year would start most this year too?

    Given that Kelly and Mason each started about twice as many games as Miles, it would seem logical to me that both would be the expected starters to start the year. Thus, I think Miles starting over Mason is surprising. It's not a knock on Miles, but an acknowledgement that Mason showed more last year.
    I didn't mean to imply it was just you CDu and I apologize if I did.

    As for saying it's Miles to lose, while he may not have started as many games he was starting at the end of the season. In fact I believe it was Mason and Miles starting wasn't it? At first I thought it was Kelly and Miles, hence my comment. And since Kelly is playing like a maniac I guess it comes down to Mason and Miles...since as you pointed out only 2 can start.

    I'll grant you that Miles started less last year, but they were both starting at the end of last year and Miles is the Senior. So I suppose an argument could be made it's both theirs to lose...and Kelly took one =)

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by nmduke2001 View Post
    I wish Mason would embrace his inner Rodman. With his size and athleticism Mason could be a dominate defender and rebounder.
    Miles can be a dominant defender and rebounder too. He has just as much size and athleticism as Mason, he's actually much stronger and more physical than Mason. Miles was better in that one game. He showed some good moves in the paint with good footwork, and was just so much more aggressive than Mason. If that continues I don't see any reason why Mason would start over Miles. I think Mason has just been so hyped up, even since is junior year of high school, and Miles has been more in the background that people expect Mason to be better because that's what we've all been told for a good 3 or 4 years now. Hopefully they can both play to their potential on a consistent basis. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Miles was the starter for the rest of the year. He's athletic, strong, willing to mix it up in the paint, and has a better offensive game than Mason at this point (although he's not a great offensive player).

  18. #18
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    Aug 2007
    It's a team sport and while Kelly is headed for stardom and possibly a future captain's role the Plumlees will get their minutes.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devilsfan View Post
    It's a team sport and while Kelly is headed for stardom and possibly a future captain's role the Plumlees will get their minutes.
    Were captains ever decided this year?
    It's being reported that due to coronavirus fears, Harvard has asked students not to return from spring break, and for classes to be held online.

    Not to be outdone, UNC told students to stop coming to class 27 years ago under Dean Smith.

  20. #20
    I'm excited about Ryan's last game too, but I think it should be pointed out that while he made some heady plays and pulled out some moves that he's never displayed at Duke before, a lot of his points came on open jumpers. I wonder if everyone would be raving about him if he had missed a couple of those shots -- it's not like he's going to shoot that well every game, even though he is a very good shooter.

    I don't mean to be a Debbie Downer because I do have high hopes for Ryan. I made the Dirk comment on the other thread and I really can see him being a sort of college version of Dirk (a not-terribly-athletic stretch 4 who can shoot and rebound well and play with high basketball IQ).

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