Detailed Player Shooting Stats

[ojaidave]

Still having trouble figuring out how to interpret these shooting percentages.

I tried a method that took (3PT% *3 + 2PT% *2)/(3+2) which is kind of screwy in that it assumes an equal number of 3 point and 2 point attempts, but rank order

1. McClure 53.66 raw score where highest is best
2. Paulus 45.52
3. Nelson 43.24
4. Pocius 42.96
5. Scheyer 39.66
6. Henderson 38.00
7. McRoberts 33.94
8. Lance 22.72
9. Zoubek 20.96

Though in this case it is instead biased against the bigs, it does give a comparison within position.

Again percentages based on very few shots like David's 4-6 from 3 land can skew the results, as can zero 3 PT attempted or made.

Still kind of surprising to see David McClure and Marty Pocius raw score relative to Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson.

Another way to look at things might be points per shot (3*3PointersMade+2*2PointersMade)/(3PointersAttempted+2PointersAttempted). To keep things in perspective though, we should also consider how much the player is contributing to the total offense (3*3PM+2*2PM)/(3*Team 3PointersMade+2*Team2PointersMade). I'm not sure how free throws should fit into the equation though. Certainly FT's are an important part of the game, maybe they could be added into the offensive contribution (3*3PM+2*2PM+FTM)/(3*Team3PM+2*Team2PM+TeamFTM). I'll throw that number in here as well. This view yields (includes the 3 "missing" games):

Rank _ Name _ Pts/ShotAttempt _ (Off. Contrib.) _ (Off. Contrib with free throws)
1. Paulus 1.15 (18%) (17%)
2. Thomas 1.14 (5%) (5%)
3. Nelson 1.08 (21%) (20%)
4T. Zoubek 1.05 (4%) (4%)
4T. Pocius 1.05 (2%) (2%)
6T. McRoberts 1.02(18%) (19%)
6T McClure 1.02 (6%) (6%)
8. Scheyer 1.01 (16%) (17%)
9. Henderson .94 (10%) (9%)

Henderson's numbers surprised me a bit. In retrospect, his game is geared more towards 1 on 1 play so I guess you would expect to see a drop off in efficiency.

Finally, because I can't help myself, let's throw in assist to turnovers.

Rank _ Name _ Pts/ShotAttempt _ Assist:Turnover Ratio
1. Paulus 1.15 1.23
2. Thomas 1.14 0.02
3. Nelson 1.08 0.80
4T. Zoubek 1.05 0.16
4T. Pocius 1.05 0.44
6T. McRoberts 1.02 1.43
6T McClure 1.02 0.43
8. Scheyer 1.01 1.17
9. Henderson .94 0.81


Thomas needs some serious work on his court vision, with Zoubek not too far behind.


Looking purely at a combination of these numbers as an opposing coach, I would:

Name _ PtsPerShot _ (%TotalOffense) _ Assist:Turnover
Nelson 1.08 (20%) 0.80 - Dedicated defender, bring a help defender to stop his shot (soft double)
Paulus 1.15 (17%) 1.23 - Dedicated defender and play the passing lanes.
Scheyer 1.01 (17%) 1.17 - Dedicated defender and play the passing lanes.
Henderson .94 (9%) 0.81 - Let him shoot, collapse if he drives the lane
McClure 1.02 (6%) 0.43 - Straight up defense
Thomas 1.14 (5%) 0.02 - Aggressive double team
Zoubek 1.05 (4%) 0.16 - Aggressive double team
Pocius 1.05 (2%) 0.44 - Rotate a defender

Dave

[ACCBBallFan]

Thanks, Dave.

Those results seems to make some sense, and do show that Josh's overall game will be missed. However, the three newbies plus the growth in experience for the other 8 more than offset that.

[pfrduke]

Here are the numbers for Duke opponents on the season (missing the same 3 games):

Total: 695-1643 = 42.3%
2pt FG: 563-1234 = 45.6%
3pt FG: 132-409 = 32.3%
Dunks: 52-61 = 85.2%
Layups: 257-428 = 60.0%
Tip-ins: 16-38 = 42.1%
Dunks & Layups: 309-489 = 63.2%
Dunks, Layups, & Tip-ins: 325-527 = 61.7%
Other 2pt FG: 238-707 = 33.7%
All "jumpers" (2s & 3s): 370-1116 = 33.2%

Points per shot:
Overall: 1522/1643 = .926
Dunks, Layups, & Tip-ins: 650/527 = 1.23
2pt jumpers: 476/707 = .673
3pt jumpers: 396/409 = .968

% of shots given to dunks/layups/tipins: 527/1643 = 32.1%
% of shots given to 2pt jumpers: 707/1643 = 43.0%
% of shots given to 3pters: 409/1643 = 24.9%

% of points from dunks/layups/tipins: 650/1522 = 42.7%
% of points from 2pt jumpers: 476/1522 = 31.3%
% of points from 3pters: 396/1522 = 26.0%

Running these numbers made me realize a little bit of the brilliance of Duke's defense. We as fans complain a lot that guards from opponent teams get past our perimeter defense easily. That only matters if the end result is a layup (or a kick-out three). If the defense can recover well enough to keep the opponent in the mid-range, those shots are so low percentage and low yield that much more often than not, it's a victory for the defense. Duke forced opponents to take mid-range shots 43% of the time. Opponents shot just 33.7%, resulting in a points-per-shot yield of .675. Contrast this to Duke's ratio on offense (mid-range shots were 33.4% of all attempts) or Florida's during the NCAA (24.1%), and you can see how a big part of the reason for our defensive success last year was forcing opponents to shoot mid-range shots much more often than they wanted to. Duke's ratio of close shots + 3s : mid-range shots was 2:1. Florida's was 3:1 during the NCAAs. Duke's opponents' was 4:3. This whole analysis has convinced me that the lower the ratio is, the less likely a team is to have success on offense. Again, it's something to watch next year - the more mid-range jumpers a team takes, the less likely they are to succeed (in general).

As a side note, in the last two losses last season, NC St and VCU got into the lane for close-in shots way, way too much - 26 for NC St and 25 for VCU, compared to an average of 17.5 by opponents all season. The whole ratio was down in each of those games - 2.5:1 for NC St, and just over 2:1 for VCU.

[ACCBBallFan]

a big part of the reason for our defensive success last year was forcing opponents to shoot mid-range shots much more often than they wanted to. Duke's ratio of close shots + 3s : mid-range shots was 2:1. Florida's was 3:1 during the NCAAs. Duke's opponents' was 4:3. This whole analysis has convinced me that the lower the ratio is, the less likely a team is to have success on offense. Again, it's something to watch next year - the more mid-range jumpers a team takes, the less likely they are to succeed (in general).

As a side note, in the last two losses last season, NC St and VCU got into the lane for close-in shots way, way too much - 26 for NC St and 25 for VCU, compared to an average of 17.5 by opponents all season. The whole ratio was down in each of those games - 2.5:1 for NC St, and just over 2:1 for VCU.

Interesting contrast to other threads where posters are espousing Gerald Henderson and his ability to shoot the pull-up, something he will probably get a lot of practice at as the Duke starters' defense is willing to give/unable to stop.