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  1. #1
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    2011-12 MBB Schedule Speculation

    Because it's never too early to think about next year, some thoughts on the schedule.

    First, we know we'll play Michigan State in the Champions Classic at MSG on Nov. 15.

    Second, we'll be playing in Maui. The tournament has a new format this year, with 4 additional "mainland" teams that play early games at the "Maui-bound" teams' home arenas, so it looks like Duke will get 4 total games out of the Maui Invitational. These games are scheduled to occur Nov. 11-17. I would predict that Duke plays its game on the early side, before the Champions Classic. If not, it would definitely be the 17th.

    Third, I am assuming that the ACC/Big 10 challenge will be renewed (especially since they can now go 12-on-12), but it's not a guarantee (the current deal ended with this season's matchup). If it does renew, I could see Duke going on the road, perhaps to Purdue again (which would be a semi-homecoming game for all the Plumlees). Ohio State would also be a good matchup - I could be wrong, but I don't think we've ever played the Buckeyes in the challenge.

    So that's six non-conference games. We will probably have 15 total non-conference games, two of which will almost certainly come during our "bye" slots in the ACC schedule. Any news on who those other 9 opponents might be? I don't recall whether the St. John's series is done, but if it's not, they're due to pay us a visit.

    In terms of timing and 903, there's a very real possibility that it happens in a tiny little gym in Lahaina. The only way it doesn't is if: 1) we schedule an additional game before we leave for Maui so that we have three prior to reaching the island (MSU, mainland Maui Invitational game, and one more); and 2) we beat Michigan State.

    In terms of opponent and 903, I have no idea whether Duke gets any say over which teams join the Maui Invitational as "mainland" teams, so that could simply be luck of the draw. But assuming we had our pick, who do we go with for 903? Go historical, and schedule Lehigh (K's first win) or Stetson (K's first win at Duke)? Go symbolic, and schedule Indiana (note: I think there is zero chance of this happening)? Go biographical, and schedule Army? Or try to schedule a heavyweight and make the game a really big deal (even moreso than it already would be)?

    If 903 waits until Lahaina, then the question of opponent becomes more limited. I assume that the Maui bracket will be set up for Duke and Kansas to meet in the finals, with UCLA and Georgetown split up to be the designated semifinal opponents. That leaves Memphis, Michigan, Tennessee, and Chaminade as potential first round opponents. I, for one, hope it's not Chaminade (although what a story it would be if the Silver Swords won and kept K stuck on 902). Memphis and Michigan are almost certainly going to be pre-season top 25 teams, so my guess would be Tennessee.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

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  2. #2
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    It's been floated that the University of Southern California will play at Duke.

  3. #3
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  4. #4
    Do we know what the ACC schedule will look like? Who we get twice, etc.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by hurleyfor3 View Post
    Do we know what the ACC schedule will look like? Who we get twice, etc.
    I believe that 2011 was the last year of the three-year rotation, and the new three-year set has not yet been released.

    On that note, any chance that we go to 18 conference games?
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  6. #6
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    FYI, we played Ohio State back in 2002 at the G-Boro Coliseum, winning 91-76.

    I would imagine since we're playing MSU that we play either Ohio State or Purdue on the road. Usually they match up the previous season's champions together, which would be us and OSU.

    I've also heard that we might play USC in LA as a stopover on our way out to Maui...but I can't for the life of me remember where I saw that. I think that's just as possible depending on who we play the first couple games in the Maui luau, with USC playing in Cameron another season.
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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by blazindw View Post
    I've also heard that we might play USC in LA as a stopover on our way out to Maui...but I can't for the life of me remember where I saw that. I think that's just as possible depending on who we play the first couple games in the Maui luau, with USC playing in Cameron another season.
    903 at the Galen Center? Ew.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    If 903 waits until Lahaina, then the question of opponent becomes more limited. I assume that the Maui bracket will be set up for Duke and Kansas to meet in the finals, with UCLA and Georgetown split up to be the designated semifinal opponents. That leaves Memphis, Michigan, Tennessee, and Chaminade as potential first round opponents. I, for one, hope it's not Chaminade (although what a story it would be if the Silver Swords won and kept K stuck on 902). Memphis and Michigan are almost certainly going to be pre-season top 25 teams, so my guess would be Tennessee.
    If the opponent were Chaminade, would it technically be 903 at all since it's a non-DI opponent. I know that for NCAA selection purposes, only DI opponents count, but I don't know if the same is true for records.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by blazindw View Post
    FYI, we played Ohio State back in 2002 at the G-Boro Coliseum, winning 91-76.

    I would imagine since we're playing MSU that we play either Ohio State or Purdue on the road. Usually they match up the previous season's champions together, which would be us and OSU.
    Do you mean turnny champs or season champs? If its season champs that would put UNC at Ohio st or Ohio st at UNC....


    Didnt robbie redshirt for Purdue again?

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by meloveduke View Post
    Do you mean turnny champs or season champs? If its season champs that would put UNC at Ohio st or Ohio st at UNC....


    Didnt robbie redshirt for Purdue again?
    Official champs. For the ACC, the tourney champ is the official champ. For the Big Ten, I believe it's the regular season champ. Of course, this is not an exact science, but it seems that those two teams are matched up each season if possible.
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  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by blazindw View Post
    Official champs. For the ACC, the tourney champ is the official champ. For the Big Ten, I believe it's the regular season champ. Of course, this is not an exact science, but it seems that those two teams are matched up each season if possible.
    You sure, last time the ACC champ and regular season champ was different in 09, Both regular season champs (Michigan St. and UNC) were paired up the following year. I always assumed that they just tried to make good TV match-ups while making sure that the same two teams weren't being paired up to often and teams played about equal amounts of home and road games over the long run.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    I believe that 2011 was the last year of the three-year rotation, and the new three-year set has not yet been released.

    On that note, any chance that we go to 18 conference games?
    A few days ago on the "Next Year" thread, I posted my quasi-educated guess - my speculation, not certain, but plausible - as to our 2011-12 ACC schedule. Again, speculation, as befits the title of this thread.

    Here I simply repeat what I posted there....


    Herewith the ACC unbalanced schedule for next year. Two caveats, which, depending on what any poster thinks [or knows, inside-info-style], may render this post either dead-certain-right-on or mere, if interesting, speculation: (1) I assume, but am not certain, that the ACC will continue its unbalanced schedule of a 16-game ACC season. (2) I assume that if (1) is true, then the ACC will not re-invent the wheel, i.e., the actual 3-year rotating pattern that was established beginning with the '05-'06 season, was repeated beginning with the '08-'09 season, and would therefore be repeated again beginning with the '11-'12 season.

    Over the past 6 seasons, each team's unbalanced schedule follows this pattern:
    '05-'06 = '08-'09
    '06-'07 = '09-'10
    '07-'08 = '10-'11

    So, assuming (1) and (2) in the first paragraph above:
    '11-'12 = '08-'09

    Link is below, but here's a quick summary of the Duke and UNC schedules:

    Duke -
    primary partners (H & A) - UNC, Md
    rotating H & A partners - Wake, FSU, VT
    rotating H only partners - NCS, UVa, Miami
    rotating A only partners - GaT, BC, Clemson

    UNC -
    primary partners (H & A) - Duke, NCS
    rotating H & A partners - Md, UVa, Miami
    rotating H only partners - GaT, BC, Clemson
    rotating A only partners - Wake, FSU, VT

    Link here: http://www.theacc.com/auto_pdf/p_hot...el-three-years

    A key statement from the 3-year schedule page is that over the 3 years, each team will have played its 2 "primary partners" 6 times [for Duke: UNC and Md; for UNC: Duke and NCS], and its "rotating partners" 4 times.

    Finally, back to caveats: I suppose one might speculate that if the ACC is considering a longer ACC schedule, or some divisional structure which would necessitate new scheduling, then it makes some sense to make such a change at the end of a 3-year cycle. The '10-'11 season does in fact complete a 3-year cycle.

  13. #13

    Game in Indiana for Miles

    If Duke doesn't go to Purdue for the ACC/Big 10 Challenge, Coach K will probably try to schedule a game in Indiana for Miles, right? (Because he tries to schedule a game in his scholarship seniors' home states.) IU? Butler??

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by wk2109 View Post
    If Duke doesn't go to Purdue for the ACC/Big 10 Challenge, Coach K will probably try to schedule a game in Indiana for Miles, right? (Because he tries to schedule a game in his scholarship seniors' home states.) IU? Butler??
    If so, I'd love to see us go play Butler again in Indianapolis. I'd actually prefer it at Hinkle, but as we know K doesn't really schedule those types of games much, preferring them at the big, tournament-like arenas. Butler would seem to be more logical than the Hoosiers, as will have already scheduled Big 10 foes Michigan St. and our opponent in the ACC-Big 10 challenge. And Butler would probably help our SOS and RPI more than Indiana too.

  15. #15

    2012 schedule

    Just a couple of points:

    -- I hope win 903 doesn't come against Chaminade. Yeah, it would count even though the Silverswords are a Division II team (believe me, almost every coach has at least a couple of DII wins), it would just be kind of lame to win it against a non-DI team. It's interesting that even though Duke has been to Maui four times -- winning the title in 2007, 2001, 1997 and 1992 -- Duke has only played Chaminade once (so K already has a DII win among his 900).

    --K doesn't always schedule games for his seniors. He does at times when it works out -- at Oregon last year -- but not everybody gets one. But I think Butler (or Indiana) in Canseco Fieldhouse would be just the kind of game that K would like to schedule.

    -- Don't be so sure that Duke goes on the road in the Big 10 Challenge. They balance such things over the course of the contract, but with one contract ending and a new one beginning, it's possible that Duke could start the new cycle with a home game. Pretty sure that there will b a renewall -- I had an ACC official tell me that Wake would face Nebraska next December! BTW, there is no provision to match the previous years champs, no matter how they are determined. They just try to arrange the best TV matchups.

    -- It might be Michigan in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge. The Wolverines have everybody back (assuming no early defections) from the team that lost the thriller to Duke in Charlotte. They are going to be picked very high in the Big 10 next year (maybe even one of Sullinger changes his mind and goes pro). And, yes, Robbie Hummell will be back at Purdue for a fifth-year. Of course, if the two ae bracketed together in Maui, that might change things.

    -- K always plays an Ivy. He usually tries to schedule a projected contender -- Cornell and Princeton recently. The problem is that Harvard is going to be the preseason favorite in the Ivy and I doubt K will want to play Tommy.

    -- Certain there will be a New York area game just before Christmas -- probably in the Meadowlands (since Duke plays MSU in MSG). I wonder who?

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    primary partners (H & A) - UNC, Md
    rotating H & A partners - Wake, FSU, VT
    rotating H only partners - NCS, UVa, Miami
    rotating A only partners - GaT, BC, Clemson

    UNC -
    primary partners (H & A) - Duke, NCS
    rotating H & A partners - Md, UVa, Miami
    rotating H only partners - GaT, BC, Clemson
    rotating A only partners - Wake, FSU, VT
    Sorry it's taking me a few days to come back around on this... so we get to reprise all our road losses from this year. Also, we have to go to Clemson and unc only has to play them at home.

    Is it me or do we always always always get jobbed by this damn unbalanced schedule?

    I do wonder how much the league will consider an 18-game schedule. With the league becoming more top-heavy in recent years, the best way for the middling teams to get NCAA tournament bids may be to have more potential home games against us and unc.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by hurleyfor3 View Post
    ... so we get to reprise all our road losses from this year. Also, we have to go to Clemson and unc only has to play them at home.

    Is it me or do we always always always get jobbed by this damn unbalanced schedule?
    1. getting jobbed - This has been my view over the past 2 seasons, but others [OlyFan and/or ACCBBFan and/or others] have persuaded me that it's mostly my paranoia - and now yours.

    2. to prove I'm slightly less paranoid than previously - As I look at these schedules [again, I think likely, but not yet certain, as this is just my logical assumption, not yet an official ACC announcement], I see, for the first time in human history, more advantages than disadvantages, vis-a-vis UNC. Now, one's views of advantage/disadvantage will depend substantially on one's "predictions" about who'll be strong, who weak next season, so....

    (a.) Duke has Miami only H, while UNC has both H/A. I got Miami as #3 next year, so I say this is a + for Duke.
    (b.) I wonder whether NCS will be significantly improved; if so, again, we get them only H, while UNC gets their "permanent partner" both H/A. Maybe a + for Duke.
    (c.) I'm guessing UVa will definitely be better next year; thus, ditto (b) above.
    (d.) Once every 3 years, both Duke and UNC play Md H/A. So if one thinks Md gets up for UNC almost as much as for Duke, then at least next season it's "balanced" on this point.
    (e.) Now Duke does have to play FSU twice, but at least UNC gets them A rather than H. Ditto for VaT: Duke plays them twice, but at least UNC gets them A.
    (f.) 9F 9F 9F 9F 9F 9F - advantage Duke.
    (g.) Duke gets Wake twice, UNC only once, A. That seems a + for Duke.
    (h.) Clemson - definite + for UNC, as per your post [and our paranoia]

    Overall, then, given my assumptions about who'll be top 1/2 and who bottom in next year's ACC, I'll say that this is the first season I can remember that Duke hasn't gotten jobbed.

    I do hope you and others will refute my optimistic speculations, as I am rather happier when paranoid.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Just a couple of points:

    -- I hope win 903 doesn't come against Chaminade. Yeah, it would count even though the Silverswords are a Division II team (believe me, almost every coach has at least a couple of DII wins), it would just be kind of lame to win it against a non-DI team. It's interesting that even though Duke has been to Maui four times -- winning the title in 2007, 2001, 1997 and 1992 -- Duke has only played Chaminade once (so K already has a DII win among his 900).
    We normally play two D-II schools for 'pre-season,' and I know those don't count, so shouldn't the games that teams play against Chaminade in Maui every year not be counted, too?

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dev11 View Post
    We normally play two D-II schools for 'pre-season,' and I know those don't count, so shouldn't the games that teams play against Chaminade in Maui every year not be counted, too?
    No. The 'pre season' games are scheduled as exhibitions. Each team is allowed 2 exhibitions each year (i believe)

    The game against chaminade is a regular season game...just like any other...other than there is probably some limit on the number of games against DII opponents in the regular season.
    1200. DDMF.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    No. The 'pre season' games are scheduled as exhibitions. Each team is allowed 2 exhibitions each year (i believe)

    The game against chaminade is a regular season game...just like any other...other than there is probably some limit on the number of games against DII opponents in the regular season.
    The game against Chaminade (should it happen) would be scheduled like a regular season game and count in our record as one, but it is not like any other. While it does count for archival purposes, it technically would not count in the eyes of the selection committee or in our RPI. They look at D-I record only.

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