The Battle For ACC Regular Season

[nocilla]

A glimpse of op(toe)mism;

Duke has won 2 of the last 3 and 8 of the last 12 meetings in Chapel Hill.

Just like the earlier game in Cameron where Duke seemed to be overly excited in the first half, UNC is likely to experience the same. But based on the Off and Def efficiency numbers Duke is better suited to prevent a comeback.

[ns7]

Still, if someone wants to bother calculating each team's offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency during the period, I bet Duke would come out well ahead of UNC.

You're exactly right, it's almost the same as the difference for the entire ACC season.

Team Oeff Deff Margin
Duke 1.09 0.90 +0.19
UNC 1.04 0.93 +0.11

As a further point, this would project Duke to win 68-67 (in 69 possessions) this Saturday at Chapel Hill. Compare that to Pomeroy projecting Duke to win 75-74 (higher pace game).

[sandinmyshoes]

Duke vs. UNC.

Numbers.

I wonder what the numbers predicted in 95 at Cameron.

Or on the flipside, in 06 at Cameron.

We have every reason to be nervous, and every reason to be confident. That's the paradox that is Duke/UNC.

[ns7]

Duke vs. UNC.

Numbers.

I wonder what the numbers predicted in 95 at Cameron.

Or on the flipside, in 06 at Cameron.

We have every reason to be nervous, and every reason to be confident. That's the paradox that is Duke/UNC.

Actually most advanced statistics predicted a close game in Cameron in 2006.

I know there's a lot of emotion involved but at the end of the day it's a basketball game. I'm sure that's what the coaching staff preaches. When you get too caught up into it, you start playing "NUTS" as Coach K put it after the game earlier this year.

[sandinmyshoes]

Actually most advanced statistics predicted a close game in Cameron in 2006.

I know there's a lot of emotion involved but at the end of the day it's a basketball game. I'm sure that's what the coaching staff preaches. When you get too caught up into it, you start playing "NUTS" as Coach K put it after the game earlier this year.

Sure, and UNC was predicted to win in 95 and did so. But nobody expected an overtime affair based on numbers, did they?

Also, we have to be honest. The '06 game in Cameron was not really all that close a game.

Of course, the point is that it is Duke and UNC, so nearly anything is possible

[ns7]

Sure, and UNC was predicted to win in 95 and did so. But nobody expected an overtime affair based on numbers, did they?

Also, we have to be honest. The '06 game in Cameron was not really all that close a game.

Of course, the point is that it is Duke and UNC, so nearly anything is possible

And Texas was supposed to beat KSU last night too, but we really can't call that a rivalry. But if it were a rivalry, I'm sure everyone would attribute the upset to the fact that the two teams were rivals.

Upsets happen in basketball; attributing their causes to pressure from a rivalry is just selection bias. Otherwise you could make a ton of money betting the underdog in rivalry games.