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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by gw67 View Post
    Bowie, Tucker and Gregory are three seniors who have been substitutes for three years but are getting starter minutes as seniors. All are above average defensive players. Each of the three has had a few moments this year but none of them is close to All ACC caliber.
    Solid senior leadership provides Coach Gary Williams with a solid base to build this team into a real force by the time March rolls around. I say watch out for Maryland in the ACCT and NCAAT.

    Quote Originally Posted by gw67 View Post
    Pomeroy predicts a 13 point victory for the Devils. I see the game getting out of hand for the Terps early and the Duke winning margin being 20-25 points.
    I'll be pleasantly surprised if we win by 20-25 points. Hopefully you are correct but a 20 point victory would mean Jordan Williams spent the majority of the game in foul trouble. I don't see us blowing this game open with Williams playing major minutes.

    Thanks for an informative preview of the Terps.
    Bob Green

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Solid senior leadership provides Coach Gary Williams with a solid base to build this team into a real force by the time March rolls around. I say watch out for Maryland in the ACCT and NCAAT.

    I'll be pleasantly surprised if we win by 20-25 points. Hopefully you are correct but a 20 point victory would mean Jordan Williams spent the majority of the game in foul trouble. I don't see us blowing this game open with Williams playing major minutes.
    Agreed. Duke has struggled in the frontcourt against post players like Williams.

    If you are looking for a chink in the Duke armor, take a look at Miami’s Reggie Johnson. In the game against Duke, Johnson managed 22 points in 23 minutes of action. For those of you who worship at the tempo-free altar, Miami scored 1.05 points per possession and held Duke to 0.89 per possession when Johnson was on the floor.

    It might be a stretch to expect Maryland to win in Durham, but if the line was set at 20, I would take the points.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by gw67 View Post
    I see the game getting out of hand for the Terps early and the Duke winning margin being 20-25 points.

    gw67
    I think I would be more shocked if this were to occur than Maryland coming away with an upset. I just don't see any way that this happens other than Williams picking up 3 fouls in the 1st half. As an earlier poster stated, If Miami's big guy was able to create so many problems for us while he was in (a guy who just went 1-3 against Clemson), then we should expect to see a huge struggle vs Jordan Williams. If our big guys start getting in foul trouble like they have been doing lately, then this could get out of hand going the other way.

    I would love to see us actually start attacking inside from the start and go at Williams. I would love to NOT see fade-aways from our big guys in this one. If Jordan gets the ball down low in iso, stay straight up. I don't think we'll lose this game of he gets 25-15. As long as we don't allow him to open up things for everyone else I think we'll be fine.

    No matter who wins this, I think tomorrow night is going to show how crazy all this undefeated talk has been.
    "Just be you. You is Enough."

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by timmy c View Post
    Agreed. Duke has struggled in the frontcourt against post players like Williams.

    If you are looking for a chink in the Duke armor, take a look at Miami’s Reggie Johnson. In the game against Duke, Johnson managed 22 points in 23 minutes of action. For those of you who worship at the tempo-free altar, Miami scored 1.05 points per possession and held Duke to 0.89 per possession when Johnson was on the floor.

    It might be a stretch to expect Maryland to win in Durham, but if the line was set at 20, I would take the points.
    I think most people would take Maryland if the line was set at 20. That's why it won't be.

    Since Duke beat Miami by double figures and the game was never in doubt for the last 25 or so minutes, I'm not sure how one guy's stats for Miami represents a "chink in the Duke armor."

    Finally, how many "players like Williams" have we faced this year? Certainly not enough to say we've "struggled" against them, especially since we haven't lost yet and we handled Miami pretty easily. Unless I don't understand what you mean?

  5. #65
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    Talking Duke Defense

    Quote Originally Posted by timmy c View Post
    Agreed. Duke has struggled in the frontcourt against post players like Williams.

    If you are looking for a chink in the Duke armor, take a look at Miami’s Reggie Johnson. In the game against Duke, Johnson managed 22 points in 23 minutes of action. For those of you who worship at the tempo-free altar, Miami scored 1.05 points per possession and held Duke to 0.89 per possession when Johnson was on the floor.

    It might be a stretch to expect Maryland to win in Durham, but if the line was set at 20, I would take the points.
    LIke it or not, when Duke blows out to a 26-4 lead after seven minutes, the rest of the game becomes a glorified scrimmage -- unless the losing team makes it a game. Miami narrowed the gap, but the Duke lead was never in jeopardy. Moreover, when Duke became more deliberate on offense at the six minute mark of the second half with an 11-point lead, I thought the defense changed as well, and there was a conscious effort to guard the three and not to foul. This opened things up for young Johnson (who impressed the heck out of me). So, I wouldn't make too much of the "chink in the armor," although there were clearly mistakes, such as lack of help for Mason, that the staff will try to fix.

    sagegrouse

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by timmy c View Post
    Agreed. Duke has struggled in the frontcourt against post players like Williams.

    If you are looking for a chink in the Duke armor, take a look at Miami’s Reggie Johnson. In the game against Duke, Johnson managed 22 points in 23 minutes of action. For those of you who worship at the tempo-free altar, Miami scored 1.05 points per possession and held Duke to 0.89 per possession when Johnson was on the floor.

    It might be a stretch to expect Maryland to win in Durham, but if the line was set at 20, I would take the points.
    +1.

    We have struggled to stop talented bigs all year, and will continue to do so because our bigs just aren't that good defensively. Examples: Jimmy Butler of Marquette (22 pts, 6 rebs), Curtis Kelly of K State (19 pts on 8 of 11, 6 rebs), Draymond Green of Mich St (16 pts on 6 of 11, 6 rebs), and of course Reggie Johnson (22 pts on 9 of 10, 9 rebs). What has saved us so far is a combination of foul trouble and the inability of opposing teams' guards to feed their bigs sufficiently (due in no small part to our excellent perimeter).

    It's more than a chink in the armor, folks, it's THE major weakness of this team. We will eventually lose because of it. But not tomorrow. I will be stunned if we don't avenge last season's loss. My guess is we win by around 10 points.

    Also, regarding the earlier discussions of Sagarin vs. Pomeroy and their divergence regarding Maryland... Sagarin's system is predominantly win/loss based, whereas Pomeroy's is possession based. It's not uncommon for the two systems to disagree fairly dramatically this early in the season. Win/loss based systems are prone to sample size issues early on, because there simply haven't been enough games played to get an accurate read. Pomeroy's system is demonstrably more predictive, simply because there are ~65x more possessions than games played at any point in the season. No system is fool proof, but it is very likely that Maryland is one of the 20 best teams in the country, and quite possibly the second best team in the ACC (although my money is still on UNC for that distinction, figuratively speaking).

  7. #67

    Offense

    Quote Originally Posted by cptnflash View Post
    +1.

    We have struggled to stop talented bigs all year, and will continue to do so because our bigs just aren't that good defensively. Examples: Jimmy Butler of Marquette (22 pts, 6 rebs), Curtis Kelly of K State (19 pts on 8 of 11, 6 rebs), Draymond Green of Mich St (16 pts on 6 of 11, 6 rebs), and of course Reggie Johnson (22 pts on 9 of 10, 9 rebs). What has saved us so far is a combination of foul trouble and the inability of opposing teams' guards to feed their bigs sufficiently (due in no small part to our excellent perimeter).

    It's more than a chink in the armor, folks, it's THE major weakness of this team. We will eventually lose because of it. But not tomorrow. I will be stunned if we don't avenge last season's loss. My guess is we win by around 10 points.

    Also, regarding the earlier discussions of Sagarin vs. Pomeroy and their divergence regarding Maryland... Sagarin's system is predominantly win/loss based, whereas Pomeroy's is possession based. It's not uncommon for the two systems to disagree fairly dramatically this early in the season. Win/loss based systems are prone to sample size issues early on, because there simply haven't been enough games played to get an accurate read. Pomeroy's system is demonstrably more predictive, simply because there are ~65x more possessions than games played at any point in the season. No system is fool proof, but it is very likely that Maryland is one of the 20 best teams in the country, and quite possibly the second best team in the ACC (although my money is still on UNC for that distinction, figuratively speaking).
    You make a good point with factual information about how prone we are to give up points inside to good big men. We also seem to have more problem guarding the three to date than say last year. So we are likely to give up 60 or more points per game against solid opponents.

    What I would bring up is our vulnerability on offense. If someone could slow Nolan down from his incredible high performance level we would need to find points elsewhere. A top defender like Nored could do that or Nolan might get into foul trouble. Singler has been a litte erratic on offense. When he is not hitting his shots, we need him to make the additional pass. Andre is a solid scorer but has not figured in the offense in some games. He gets into the spread the floor and stand around approach which cuts his shots down. There has to be more he can do. We also have Seth who can get points. Inside, we are a little spotty, but should be able to get at least 15 from our 3 bigs. Kelly has shown scoring talent and Mason has the talent to do more.
    If and when we get Kyrie back, we will have an additional nearly unstoppable talent. Until then, we need to utilize the offensive talents of more of the players.

  8. #68
    I would say, and not very originally, that rebounding will tell the tale. Fouling Williams and putting him on the line isn't necessarily a bad thing, but keeping him off the offensive boards is key. One of the Duke guards may need to help on the boards too, both Nolan and Andre have had 5 or 6 boards in games, this would be another good game to do that. But mainly, the big fellas need to get on the glass.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by cptnflash View Post
    +1.

    We have struggled to stop talented bigs all year, and will continue to do so because our bigs just aren't that good defensively. Examples: Jimmy Butler of Marquette (22 pts, 6 rebs), Curtis Kelly of K State (19 pts on 8 of 11, 6 rebs), Draymond Green of Mich St (16 pts on 6 of 11, 6 rebs), and of course Reggie Johnson (22 pts on 9 of 10, 9 rebs). What has saved us so far is a combination of foul trouble and the inability of opposing teams' guards to feed their bigs sufficiently (due in no small part to our excellent perimeter).

    It's more than a chink in the armor, folks, it's THE major weakness of this team. We will eventually lose because of it. But not tomorrow. I will be stunned if we don't avenge last season's loss. My guess is we win by around 10 points.

    ..
    I disagree that THE major weakness of the Duke basketball team is that some of the most talented forwards and centers the team has played against have had some good games. My recollection was that Butler was a slashing forward (either playing the wing or playing like a wing) who drove well and hit some threes, Kelly scored well from the high post and moves from the top of the circle and Green is considered a point forward who can score, pass and rebound. To me, they are all very different players than the 300+ pound Johnson and Jordan Williams, more of a solid back to the basket post scorer.

    I expect that the better players we play against will continue to be the players the team has the most difficult job defending, but I don't think that is different than any other team and don't know if that qualifies as THE major weakness of the Duke basketball team.

    As others have noted, it will be interesting to see how the team defends Williams (Jordan, not Gary) as Duke has not played anyone much like him this year. I don't think that how perimeter forwards Butler, Green and Kelly fared against Duke will give us much insight as to how the team will do against Williams. Just my opinion.

  10. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I think most people would take Maryland if the line was set at 20. That's why it won't be.

    Since Duke beat Miami by double figures and the game was never in doubt for the last 25 or so minutes, I'm not sure how one guy's stats for Miami represents a "chink in the Duke armor."

    Finally, how many "players like Williams" have we faced this year? Certainly not enough to say we've "struggled" against them, especially since we haven't lost yet and we handled Miami pretty easily. Unless I don't understand what you mean?
    The current line is Duke -15 1/2. The total is 152 1/2.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by NSDukeFan View Post
    I disagree that THE major weakness of the Duke basketball team is that some of the most talented forwards and centers the team has played against have had some good games. My recollection was that Butler was a slashing forward (either playing the wing or playing like a wing) who drove well and hit some threes, Kelly scored well from the high post and moves from the top of the circle and Green is considered a point forward who can score, pass and rebound. To me, they are all very different players than the 300+ pound Johnson and Jordan Williams, more of a solid back to the basket post scorer.
    Good point about the stylistic differences between Butler/Kelly/Green and Johnson/Williams. Unfortunately it hasn't seemed to matter much so far in terms of the end result. When the other team has talented bigs, we've been unable to slow them down once they get the ball. Denial of the entry pass and foul trouble are our best bets. Although Williams has not been foul prone this year (2.1 fouls in 31 mpg) so I guess it'll really be up to our perimeter to keep the ball out of his hands.

    People who have read my comments in other threads are probably getting tired of my anti-Plumlee sentiments, so I'll try to lay off them for a while after this. But I really believe they're our biggest weakness, and that we will eventually lose road games and tournament game(s) because of them. I have three main areas of concern:

    1) Neither are effective offensively. They are both capable of posterizing opponents when the ball is delivered to them with a foot or two of the basket, and Miles will occasionally knock down a 10-12 footer if left completely alone, but that's about it. Check out their Pomeroy offensive ratings, which measure total offensive contribution on a per possession used basis. Plums are the two worst on the team besides Josh (LT) Hairston.

    http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke

    2) Neither are effective defensively. See my previous comments regarding the scoring efficiency of talented bigs they've played against this year. It would be even worse if our perimeter wasn't so good.

    3) Neither of them are particularly good rebounders, particularly relative to their athleticism. Given their size and jumping ability, they should both be rebounding monsters, and they would be if they were fundamentally sound and didn't have hands of stone. Our rebounding percentages are our worst "Four Factor" metric, and that's all the more alarming when you consider that more than half of our opponents so far have been cupcakes that were completely overmatched inside from a raw physical size/strength/talent standpoint. Our aggregate rebounding stats including only the six games against real (i.e., top 100) opponents are even worse:

    Opponent Pace Off-OReb Def-OReb
    Marquette 78 32.9 31.3
    Kansas St 75 25.0 37.5
    Mich St 74 35.4 45.1
    Butler 72 27.0 31.2
    Miami FL 70 32.0 36.5
    UAB 69 31.7 26.3
    Average 73 30.7 34.7

    Can't seem to figure out how to paste in that data table without the formatting getting messed up, but the gist of it is we've gotten 30.7% of available offensive rebounds against these six teams, and while allowing them to get 34.7% of available offensive rebounds on their end. K State and Michigan State in particularly really manhandled us on the glass. The Plumlees are not solely responsible, obviously, but in my mind they're the primary culprits.

    Tonight's game will be very interesting to watch in this regard. Statistically, Maryland is a much better rebounding team than we are.

    And with that, I'll leave the Plumlees alone until they actually cost us a game. I hope it's a long time.

  12. #72

    Additional Maryland Thoughts

    I'll add to my two cents:

    • I see where DBR included the link to Mike Wise's column on the coach from the dark side. I did not see the link to the article by Liz Clarke on tonight's game. The link is at the end of this post. The most interesting tidbit is that G. Williams allows his seniors to pick their roomates on the road and Vasquez chose Jordan Williams. In addition to his other good qualities, Williams may have picked up some of Vasquez's leadership qualities. Based on various quotes and his outgoing nature on the court, it appears that he is one of those big men who is also a leader.
    • It appears that the Terps may have gotten their first "good win" last night in a round about manner - Penn State beat Michign State. Maryland easily handled Penn State at their gym.
    • This morning, DBR lists Jordan Williams as 6-11. As I mentioned in my previous post, it appears that he is closer to 6-8 than his listed 6-10. He is not 6-11 unless he has grown a bunch recently.
    • The Terps are getting their act together in the classroom. The seniors in the last three classes have graduated on time and this year's three seniors are on schedule to graduate this spring. My wife wrote a strongly worded letter to the school 4-5 years ago telling them that she as a Maryland alum was embarassed by the graduation rate of the basketball team. Whatever caused the improvement, good for them!


    I predicted that Maryland would have a difficult time tonight and probably lose by 20-25 points. I also made the argument in another thread that the Terps are the second best team in the ACC. Some may disagree with me but I don't see the disconnect. Duke has one of its best teams in several years; the matchups are poor for Maryland (think Singler against Mosely); the Duke defense (big men and deny defense on the perimeter) will make it difficult for Williams; and the CIS factor make me think that tonight's game will be a blowout. On the other hand, I think a good case can be made for the Terps going 10-6 or 11-5 in conference and finishing second.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...T2011010803770

    gw67

  13. #73
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    LIke it or not, when Duke blows out to a 26-4 lead after seven minutes, the rest of the game becomes a glorified scrimmage -- unless the losing team makes it a game. Miami narrowed the gap, but the Duke lead was never in jeopardy.
    I may not be understanding you properly, but my recollection is the 26-4 lead was against UAB, not Miami.

    Quote Originally Posted by cptnflash View Post
    We have struggled to stop talented bigs all year, and will continue to do so because our bigs just aren't that good defensively. Examples: Jimmy Butler of Marquette (22 pts, 6 rebs), Curtis Kelly of K State (19 pts on 8 of 11, 6 rebs), Draymond Green of Mich St (16 pts on 6 of 11, 6 rebs), and of course Reggie Johnson (22 pts on 9 of 10, 9 rebs).
    . . .

    It's more than a chink in the armor, folks, it's THE major weakness of this team.
    To me these statements reflect a misunderstanding of Duke's team defense. Duke's defensive system has often been vulnerable to big games by big men. As an example, iet me share a partial list of big men's performances against Duke in the 2005-06 season:

    Marco Killingsworth (Ind), 34/10
    LeMarcus Aldridge (Tex), 21/6
    Eric Williams (Wake), 17/8, 17/13, & 23/12
    Cedric Simmons (NCSU), 28/9
    Al Thornton (Fla St), 37/15 & 26/6
    Tyler Hansbrough (UNC), 14/9 & 27/10
    Craig Smith (BC), 19/10

    Does this mean Duke's bigs were "not that good defensively"? I seem to recall Shelden Williams winning the defensive national player of the year.


    EDIT: Also, I'm not sure I'd characterize 16/6 from a guy who averages 12/9 as evidence that we couldn't stop Draymond Green. The fact that you had to include him weakens your overall point in my opinion.

    Quote Originally Posted by Saratoga2 View Post
    What I would bring up is our vulnerability on offense. If someone could slow Nolan down from his incredible high performance level we would need to find points elsewhere.
    According to Pomeroy, Duke's offense is the best in the nation. Our adjusted offensive rating has gone up (from 121.8 to 123.2) since Kyrie has been out. This can't possibly be all because of one player.

    Quote Originally Posted by cptnflash View Post
    3) Neither of them are particularly good rebounders, particularly relative to their athleticism. Given their size and jumping ability, they should both be rebounding monsters, and they would be if they were fundamentally sound and didn't have hands of stone.
    I more or less disagree with your first two points in this post as well, but I already talked about your defensive point and the offense isn't worth going into. But I did want to talk about this one. According to Pomeroy Mason is the 52nd best defensive rebounder in the country, which I think is pretty good.

    You talk about our team rebounding being our worst "four factor" metric, but I'd bet that other than last season rebounding is always our worst four factor metric. Again, our defense is designed in such a way that we almost always give up a lot of offensive rebounds to our opponents, and the way we shoot so many threes on offense, our offensive rebounding is rarely our strongest suit (last year notwithstanding).

  14. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by cptnflash View Post
    Examples: Jimmy Butler of Marquette (22 pts, 6 rebs), Curtis Kelly of K State (19 pts on 8 of 11, 6 rebs), Draymond Green of Mich St (16 pts on 6 of 11, 6 rebs), and of course Reggie Johnson (22 pts on 9 of 10, 9 rebs).
    Also, as far as I can tell, Jimmy Butler is a small forward who averages 15+/6. He doesn't play a big man position and I'm not sure why he's even on this list. I've already chimed in on the idea of including Draymond Green's 16/6 (against a season average of 12/9) on a list like this, so the way I see it, you're argument that our bigs are poor defenders boils down to Curtis Kelly (who averaged 12/6 last year and 10/4 this year in limited minutes) going 19/6 and Reggie Johnson going 22/9 when he averages 13/10. Not particularly compelling, IMO.

  15. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by gw67 View Post
    I'll add to my two cents:
    • The Terps are getting their act together in the classroom. The seniors in the last three classes have graduated on time and this year's three seniors are on schedule to graduate this spring. My wife wrote a strongly worded letter to the school 4-5 years ago telling them that she as a Maryland alum was embarassed by the graduation rate of the basketball team. Whatever caused the improvement, good for them!

    gw67
    That's good to hear and I think it is something that the Coach and U should be lauded for. Not the previous horrible record for graduation, but the fact that they have decided to take it seriously. It might also be a reflection of the type of players that Gary is trying to recruit now. In any case, it's a good sign.

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by cptnflash View Post
    3) Neither of them are particularly good rebounders
    Sorry to keep talking but I wanted to expand on this point. Mason is currently 6th in the ACC in rebounds per game, 5th in the ACC in defensive rebound % (Miles is 13th), and 9th in the ACC in offensive rebound % (Miles is 20th).

    What's your definition of a "particularly good rebounder," then?

  17. #77
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    Pro-Plumlee rant

    Quote Originally Posted by cptnflash View Post
    People who have read my comments in other threads are probably getting tired of my anti-Plumlee sentiments, so I'll try to lay off them for a while after this. But I really believe they're our biggest weakness, and that we will eventually lose road games and tournament game(s) because of them.
    I disagree with your assessment of Miles and Mason Plumlee. While both have holes in their game and lots of room for improvement, neither is a weak player. They are out on the court executing Coach Krzyzewski's game plan.

    Quote Originally Posted by cptnflash View Post
    1) Neither are effective offensively.
    I'll concede that neither is consistently effective offensively but you cannot ignore Mason's 25 points against Marquette nor Miles 14 points against Bradley. Both Plumlee brothers can score the basketball, but Duke doesn't look to them for points. Miles and Mason are typically the fourth and fifth option on offense behind Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler and Andre Dawkins (or Seth Curry).

    Mason Plumlee needs to improve his performance at the free throw line.

    Quote Originally Posted by cptnflash View Post
    2) Neither are effective defensively.
    Miles Plumlee is a solid low post defender. His rotations are much improved so he consistently cuts off the baseline when our opponent attacks from the weakside. Mason still has a lot to learn but he is only a sophomore. I expect Mason will steadily improve as the season progresses.

    Duke utilizes a complicated defensive system, which relies upon lots of rotations and help from teammates (I'm certainly not going to try and come across like I understand all the intricacies of the system). When it appears to the casual observer a defender missed their assignment and was burnt, it is often a different player who failed to rotate and provide help. I believe this was the case against Miami when Mason jumped out on Reggie Johnson in the corner and Johnson drove the baseline for a dunk. Where was the help?

    Quote Originally Posted by cptnflash View Post
    3) Neither of them are particularly good rebounders, particularly relative to their athleticism.
    I emphatically disagree!

    Mason Plumlee leads Duke in rebounding with 7.7 rebounds per game, which is 7th in the ACC. Miles Plumlee is third on the team with 5.1. Those are not shabby numbers so let's put them in historical context. As sophomores, Carlos Boozer averaged 6.5 rpg; Shelden Williams averaged 8.5 rpg; and Danny Ferry 7.8 rpg.

    I'd say Mason Plumlee is in very good company statistically. How about Miles?

    As juniors, Kenny Dennard averaged 5.2 rpg and Shane Battier averaged 5.6 rpg.

    So neither Miles nor Mason is a reincarnation of Elton Brand but they are both solid on the glass.

    Quote Originally Posted by cptnflash View Post
    Tonight's game will be very interesting to watch in this regard. Statistically, Maryland is a much better rebounding team than we are.
    I'm definitely interested in revisiting this topic after the Maryland game so I'll meet you in the Post-Game Thread. I will not be surprised when Maryland outrebounds Duke and Jordan Williams records a double-double, but I also will not be surprised when Duke wins the game by double digits (I'll predict 15 points just to lay it out there). Maryland is ranked ahead of Duke in Rebounding Margin, Offensive Rebounds, Defensive Rebounds, while Duke is ranked ahead of Maryland in Scoring Margin, Assist/Turnover Ratio, Steals, Turnover Margin.

    It is a function of style of play. Forget about last season, which was a statistical anomaly because Coach Krzyzewski adapted the team's style of play to the personnel available. Duke is back to their traditional strategy of overplaying the perimeter and passing lanes in an attempt to force turnovers. This strategy leaves the team vulnerable on the glass.

    I'll close this pro-Plumlee rant by stating my viewpoint is 180 degrees opposite of yours, down the stretch, Duke will win a close game or two due to the Plumlee brothers stepping up at a key moment and making plays that turn the tide. Think Andre Dawkins and those two huge 3-point baskets against Baylor.
    Last edited by Bob Green; 01-09-2011 at 12:23 PM.
    Bob Green

  18. #78
    I like both Plumlees. Basketball is still a team game and every team, even an outstanding team like Duke, is going to have role players. Not every player on a team can be a star and some players need to redefine their roles. As others have mentioned, the Duke defensive and offensive schemes can have an effect on the stats of inside players. On several teams, the brothers would be counted on to play a bigger role and their offensive and defensive stats would be more impressive.

    gw67

  19. #79

    plumlees

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    I'll close this pro-Plumlee rant by stating my viewpoint is 180 degrees opposite of yours, down the stretch, Duke will win a close game or two due to the Plumlee brothers stepping up at a key moment and making plays that turn the tide.
    Well, it's already happened ... Duke's closest game this season -- a five-point victory over Marquette (well, the Michigan State game was also five points) would have been a loss if Mason doesn't step up and contribute 25 points, 12 rebounds, three assists and five blocked shots.

    You can cherrypick guys like Green and Kelly and Johnson who had decent (but not great) games against Duke's defense, but it would be a lot more meaningful if that was happening consistently. If the Plumlees are so weak in the post, why didn't Matt Howard chew them up? He's a strong, experienced big man who had 11/4 in 19 minutes (foul trouble) against Zoubek in the title game a year ago ... he got to play 24 minutes against the Plumlees and managed 13/3 (on 5 of 12 shooting). Against K-State, Kelly did some danage off the bench, but their starting post players COMBINED for 5/5. MSU's Green was decent (but hardly overpowering), but their other post players (Roe and Sherman) were relatively ineffective (5/3 and 8/5).

    I think we're spoiled. Guys like Smith and Singler and Irving are among the best in the country at their positions. Guys like Miles and Mason (and Ryan) are good players ... they're developing players. They are going to be outplayed at times, but they are going to have their moments.

    Will we lose a game along the way when Mason or Miles lets us down? Probably -- but we lost games in the past when JJ Redick let us down. We lost the '02 Indiana game when Jason Williams missed a game-tying free throw. we lost last year's game at Georgia Tech when Kyle Singler missed 11 of 13 shots and Zoubek/Thomas/Plumlees got chewed up inside by Lawal, Favors and company. We lost last year's game at Maryland when Jon Scheyer shot poorly and had twice as many turnovers as assists.

    That's not a knock on those guys. Kids have poor games. Sometimes a team can overcome it (like when Duke beat Baylor with Kyle going 0-for-10 from the floor) and sometimes they can't.

    Yeah, Miles and/or Mason may cost us a game down the road ... but so might Kyle and/or Nolan. And like you, Bob, I feel confident that those guys will win us a lot more than they cost us.

  20. #80
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    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Go To Hell Terra...umm..no.
    As much as I wish all of the Crazies were back for this one, I love that there are some folks in Cameron that would not usually be able to go, especially to an ACC game against a team that Duke shares such a history with. Should be a lot of fun, I'll be yelling loudly via my keyboard. GO DUKE!!!
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

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