This Week in the ACC: 12/27-1/2

[pfrduke]

Here's a non-comprehensive list of teams that have beaten ACC opponents this year: Stetson. Kennesaw State. Seattle U. Presbyterian. Siena. UNC-Wilmington. Yale. Winthrop. The combined record of those 8 teams is 35-55; meaning 27-55 in the 8 games when they didn't beat an ACC team. Even ignoring the middling performance against the other top conferences (which, thanks to FSU, is now just 2 games under .500), it's the inability to win the games that should be won that has been so disappointing about the ACC thus far. These games account for 20% of the non-conference losses to date, and in almost any other season all would have been easy wins.

But, I'm ever the optimist, and turnaround is always just a week away (even if we are running out of weeks). Let's take a look at the week ahead.

Monday has Clemson in action against Delaware State (I'm not sure if I was wrong or if the game got postponed, but I had originally thought this was happening yesterday).

[57]Clemson hosts [232]Delaware State

Tuesday has the Wolfpack hosting Alabama A&M while the Tar Heels head to New York to try to inch the conference BCS record another game closer to .500 (and do what Miami couldn't do) by beating Rutgers.

[80]NC States hosts [333] Alabama A&M
[29]North Carolina in New York vs. [94]Rutgers

Wednesday = 880 (knock on wood). 4 other ACC teams are in action, but the real focus of the conference will be in Greensboro as K goes to unseat Dean.

[1]Duke in Greensboro vs. [300]UNC-Greensboro
[47]Boston College at [96]Rhode Island
[57]Clemson hosts [151]East Carolina
[187]Wake Forest at [42]Richmond
[20]Maryland hosts [262]North Florida

Thursday features an ACC-Big XII matchup in Charlottesville that could get the conference back to .500, if Virginia can get its act together and knock off Iowa State. According to Pomeroy, Virginia is a 3-2 underdog.

[46]Virginia Tech hosts [319]USC-Upstate
[66]Miami hosts [209]Pepperdine
[100]Virginia hosts [41]Iowa State

Friday Georgia Tech rings out 2010 with a game against Mercer.

[82]Georgia Tech hosts [257]Mercer

Saturday NC State and Boston College ring in the New Year against San Diego and South Carolina, respectively. This USC has already knocked off Clemson and will be looking for an ACC sweep at home, while USD comes in as the worst team in the WCC.

[80]NC State hosts [293]San Diego
[47]Boston College at [89]South Carolina

Sunday features the opening of ACC play for Duke and Miami in Cameron, as well as six other matchups that range from almost certainly boring (UNC-St. Fran PA) to moderately interesting (Virginia-LSU), to almost certainly ugly (Gonzaga-Wake Forest).

[1]Duke hosts [66]Miami
[187]Wake Forest hosts [50]Gonzaga
[46]Virginia Tech hosts [277]Mount St. Mary's
[29]North Carolina hosts [325]St. Francis (PA)
[57]Clemson hosts [272]Citadel
[100]Virginia hosts [111]Louisiana State
[82]Georgia Tech hosts [155]Charlotte

ACC Non-Conference Record: 97-40
Record vs. BCS: 21-23
AEC: 3-0
A-10: 4-2
A-Sun: 10-2
Big 10: 6-9
Big 12: 5-2
Big East: 4-5
Big South: 4-2
Big West: 3-0
Colonial: 4-3
CUSA: 3-2
Horizon: 2-1
Ind: 5-1
Ivy: 1-1
MAAC: 2-1
MAC: 2-0
MEAC: 5-0
MVC: 2-1
MWC: 0-1
NEC: 3-0
OVC: 1-0
Pac-10: 3-3
Patriot: 4-0
SEC: 3-4
Southern: 13-0
Southland: 1-0
Summit: 1-0
Sun Belt: 1-0
WCC: 1-0
WAC: 1-0

[loran16]

[47]Boston College at [96]Rhode Island
[47]Boston College at [89]South Carolina

BC has an interesting week. Both are not terrible opponents, with RI being an okay A-10 team while South Carolina has, except for the Ohio State game, played well against even tougher opponents.

Both of these games are on the road, meaning that a BC loss is very possible (Pomeroy has BC winning these game 61% and 58% of the time respectively). If BC was to sweep both these games, it would be a great sign for their tournament hopes and a clear sign that their performance has not been a fluke.

[Bob Green]

The ACC went 3-2 tonight with Duke, Clemson, and Maryland winning, while Boston College and Wake Forest lost to Rhode Island and Richmond respectively. A BC win over RI would've been nice for the conference.

In Maryland's win over North Florida, Jordan Williams recorded another double-double with 17 points and 11 rebounds. However, he was 1-10 from the free throw line - Ouch!

[JasonEvans]

The ACC went 3-2 tonight with Duke, Clemson, and Maryland winning, while Boston College and Wake Forest lost to Rhode Island and Richmond respectively. A BC win over RI would've been nice for the conference.

I had worried that the BC loss to URI could hurt them come tourney time if they find themselves at 9-7 in the conference and on the bubble. But, upon further review, URI is better than I though. I suspect they will hover right around the top 75 in the RPI and the various computer rankings (currently at #93 in KenPom, 67 is Sagarin, and an impressive #31 in the Sportsline RPI), which makes losing to them not too great a sin, especially on the road.

Still, BC could have used one more decent non-conf win... heck, the whole ACC needs more of that!

-Jason "Wake losing to Richmond-- totally expected at this point" Evans

[pfrduke]

Still, BC could have used one more decent non-conf win... heck, the whole ACC needs more of that!

They'll sort of get a chance again this weekend against South Carolina. Rhode Island is better than SC, but it's still a road game against a decent team.

[-jk]

"Wake losing to Richmond-- totally expected at this point"

I think your fingers got away from you. It should have said "Wake losing -- totally expected at this point" <sigh>

-jk

[-jk]

If ESPN's to be believed, at the half Virginia has 13 points on the board, including 0 for 13 three pointers and 2 assists, shooting just 20% from the floor. They're down 24-13.

Yikes.

Miami and VaTech won their games comfortably.

-jk

[Bob Green]

Boston College defeated South Carolina 85-70 in Columbia. Joe Trapani played a solid game with 23 points and 10 rebounds. Trapani is a player who does all the little things. BC shot 40.6% (13-32) on 3-point attempts.

[roywhite]

Boston College defeated South Carolina 85-70 in Columbia. Joe Trapani played a solid game with 23 points and 10 rebounds. Trapani is a player who does all the little things. BC shot 40.6% (13-32) on 3-point attempts.

I watched some of the Boston College game, and it wasn't even as close as the final score indicates; their lead was well over 20 points for a good part of the second half.

I agree with you on Trapani; would it be fair to call him a "poor man's Kyle Singler"? I thought Trapani was an emerging star during the 2008-09 season, but disappointed last season, as did BC in general. The new coach has made a difference; BC has experience and some talent...good chance at .500 or better in the league, and maybe as many as 10 wins IMO.

[Newton_14]

I watched some of the Boston College game, and it wasn't even as close as the final score indicates; their lead was well over 20 points for a good part of the second half.

I agree with you on Trapani; would it be fair to call him a "poor man's Kyle Singler"? I thought Trapani was an emerging star during the 2008-09 season, but disappointed last season, as did BC in general. The new coach has made a difference; BC has experience and some talent...good chance at .500 or better in the league, and maybe as many as 10 wins IMO.

That has always been my description of Trapani. Solid player. I have not had the privilege of seeing BC play a game yet, but hope to see them soon. The League needs them to be good, that is for sure.

I did catch part of the NC State game today. I thought they played well. They handled SDSU the way a good team should have which is different than how State has played lately. State is a different team with Smith on the floor. Maybe they can turn it around. Lowe looked like a man who had just won the lottery in the post-game press conference.

[loran16]

I watched some of the Boston College game, and it wasn't even as close as the final score indicates; their lead was well over 20 points for a good part of the second half.

I agree with you on Trapani; would it be fair to call him a "poor man's Kyle Singler"? I thought Trapani was an emerging star during the 2008-09 season, but disappointed last season, as did BC in general. The new coach has made a difference; BC has experience and some talent...good chance at .500 or better in the league, and maybe as many as 10 wins IMO.

Lets not go too far. I like Steve Donahue, and think he'll do a great job, but he has some pretty good players already in place (he's got Skinner's recruits right now). And even with this, while they've not looked bad except for in one game, their Defense needs a lot of work.

Put it this way:
2010-11 BC: #4 Offense, #202 Defense (Overall Pomeroy Ranking so far: 50)
2009-10 BC: #49 Offense, #82 Defense (Overall Pomeroy Ranking: 62)

BC has gotten better on O. But the D is atrocious. And their overall ranking hasn't improved greatly. Not that we should have expected it too without clear improved recruits coming in, as these are by and large the same players.

But the new scheme of Donahue has improved one area while seemingly made them worse in another. To the point where concluding 10 wins is very possible seems a bit of an overstatement at this point. (Pomeroy has a 35% chance roughly of 10+ wins, for example). If this ACC weren't so bad, it would definitely be unlikely.

[Bob Green]

I did catch part of the NC State game today. I thought they played well. They handled SDSU the way a good team should have which is different than how State has played lately.

You made a slight error in your post - N.C. State handled the University of San Diego (USD) today. San Diego State University (SDSU) is undefeated and ranked #7 in the country right now.

[Newton_14]

You made a slight error in your post - N.C. State handled the University of San Diego (USD) today. San Diego State University (SDSU) is undefeated and ranked #7 in the country right now.

Duh! Thanks Bob. Had San Diego State on the brain for some reason! Thanks for keeping me straight!

[JasonEvans]

I did catch part of the NC State game today. I thought they played well. They handled SDSU the way a good team should have which is different than how State has played lately. State is a different team with Smith on the floor. Maybe they can turn it around. Lowe looked like a man who had just won the lottery in the post-game press conference.

To be clear, NCSt played San Diego, not San Diego State. There is a difference--

SDSU: 15-0, ranked #19 in the Pomeroy rankings
SD: 3-10, ranked #296 in the Pomeroy rankings.

Pom expected NCSt. to beat San Diego 77-56 and made State a 98% favorite in the game. The ended up winning, 76-54, a score which would figure to not change Pom's opinion of State much at all (they were a woeful #81 in his rankings before this game).

-Jason "amazing how close Pom was to picking the final score perfectly-- scary!" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Busy day today in the conference. So far...

Wake actually held their own against Gonzaga before losing 73-63. It was just a 1 point game at halftime. Props to Wake for actually looking a little bit like a real team for a day.

Va Tech hosed Mt St May's 99-34. Yikes! MSM may stink, but that is still an impressive score. Pom had only projected VaT to win by 21.

Carolina leads St Francis by 30 points with 10 minutes left. St Fran is one of the worst teams in Div I and Pom had predicted a Carolina victory by 35.

Clemson has a nice 34-19 lead on citadel at halftime.

-Jason "lots of appetizers before the Duke-Miami main course!" Evans