Featherston on young guns who could catch K

[UrinalCake]

Already in this thread we've seen statements like "if he can average 30 wins per year . . ." Nobody averages 30 wins per year. K has won 30 games an astounding 11 times. Out of 34 years coaching. Jeff Capel, Brad Stevens and Bill Self won't be averaging 30 either.

Agreed. I think the most you could really expect for of an out-of-this-world coach in an easy conference who plays in preseason tournaments and advances far into the postseason each year would be 27 wins. But even that is nearly impossible to sustain. A couple years ago all the hype was around Josh Pastner at Memphis, because he won a bunch of games in his first year. People extrapolated that out and thought he could catch K. And before that Jay Wright was receiving some attention as a guy who could do it because he had one or two good years. Having a couple good years is one thing, but doing it every year, through poor recruiting cycles, personal crises, bad luck, etc., is another matter entirely. Ultimately, what defines Coach K's legacy is being consistently successful over such a sustained period of time.

[crimsonandblue]

With the caveat of "depending on how far out of reach Coach K puts the record"... I think Bill Self is a serious contender. He has shown the ability to recruit, is at an all-time top 5 program where he can get all kinds of talent (and can likely stay forever after his national title). The Big 12 conference is not good so he can rack up wins. He won 26 per year at Illinois and has won 30 per year at Kansas over the last 7 years. He looks fit, hungry and is a good in game coach. Coach K would be close to 1000 wins by the time he is 67. Self is at 418 wins and he is 48 years old... if he wins 30 per year for the next 19 years (he would also be 67 at that time), Self would be at 988. I know that is a long way to go, but of anyone coaching today, I think he has the best shot given his circumstance.

Chances of this are negligible. First, Self has indicated he's not a lifer. He's got plenty of money and I'd imagine he might do this for another 10 years or so, but that'd be about it. Second, the "weak" Big XII is about to be the Big XII-II, with the II being the two worst basketball schools (Colorado and Nebraska). The conference, which is 3rd in kenpom this year and was 2,4 and 1 over preceding three years (let's not talk 2006-2007), will be much more difficult as it shifts to a pure round robin with ten at least solid programs. Third, there will be hiccups in recruiting, injuries, etc.

Primarily, it will be about longevity. Secondarily, it's just really hard to do.