10 Reasons Why the Duke Blue Devils Could Go Undefeated

[GODUKEGO]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/5...efeated#page/1

This is an interesting article but the title !!! Remember however he does say could. Having to play at UNC, Kansas State in Kansas City, at NCSU, at VT, at Maryland, the ACC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament, this would be a far reached event. Love to see it but highly unlikely.


Read Justin Mc Teer's post at the end of the comments on the first page, "Here's my honest opinion. Kabongo to Duke".

[timmy c]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/5...efeated#page/1

Remember however he does say could. Having to play at UNC, Kansas State in Kansas City, at NCSU, at VT, at Maryland, the ACC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament, this would be a far reached event. Love to see it but highly unlikely.

Ken Pomoroy - statistical genuis - noted yesterday, that no team has greater than a 1% chance of going undefeated this season.Can't get much more highly unlikely than that!

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I always predict we will go undefeated and win the National Championship. Last year I was half right. How did everyone else do with their predictions?

[_TheFakeJWill_]

IMO Duke will have 2-3 loses. 1 outa conference and 1-2 in conference.

[wilko]

Rest assured Duke will lose whatever game I happen to go to...
It happened last yr, I went to the State game.

So to ensure that we lose as many games as possible.. I extend an open invitation to any UNC fan/support group/alumni/tutors to buy me tickets to any or all Duke games this yr.

Heck I'll give them a 3 yr window on the offer.

[moonpie23]

Rest assured Duke will lose whatever game I happen to go to...
It happened last yr, I went to the State game.

S.

and that was TOTALLY your fault as i remember...

[CEF1959]

There will almost surely be losses, but they'll all be upsets. And when I look at the schedule, I have a tough time figuring out where they might be.

Common wisdom (FWIW) is that a national championship team needs to have three future NBA players. As this article points out, Duke has at least 4, and all could go in the first round this coming draft. Depth, talent, experience, coaching. I wouldn't wanna play against this team.

[meowmix911]

Why even start one of these threads... It just contributes to all of the hubris and overoptimism that we don't really need... I'm more than happy to lose a few games, keep our humility, and then pound out the end of the season in style. The most gratifying season I've ever seen was the last one, and the least was the '99 team where I almost threw my TV out my apartment window. GO DUKE!

[UrinalCake]

Last year I think this same site put up a nearly identical article titled "why Kentucky will go undefeated." It was practically the same article, but with the team and player names swapped out. There was a matching article on why the wildcats won't go undefeated, as there is for duke this year. Not exactly groundbreaking stuff.

[ice-9]

There will almost surely be losses, but they'll all be upsets. And when I look at the schedule, I have a tough time figuring out where they might be.

Common wisdom (FWIW) is that a national championship team needs to have three future NBA players. As this article points out, Duke has at least 4, and all could go in the first round this coming draft. Depth, talent, experience, coaching. I wouldn't wanna play against this team.

Duke seems to lose at least once or at least play below potential in Decembers...certainly so for the last three seasons:
2010 - Loss to Wisconsin, December 2
2009 - Loss to Michigan, December 6
2008 - Loss to Pittsburgh, December 20

I think it's because semester end projects and exams are "real" and take away from the players' bball focus.

Not at all a bad thing, but if I have to predict a non-conference loss it would be in December. I want to specify mid-December, but this year it seems we don't have anyone imposing at that time: Bradley, Saint Louis, Elon. (Perhaps by design!)

So my best guess is Butler or Michigan State.

[4decadedukie]

I do not want to be a curmudgeon and I certainly would love for Duke to undefeated this year; however – and without doing an in-depth, game-by-game probability of win (Pw) analysis – let us make a few conservative assumptions:
a) Thirty regular season games
b) With a mean Pw of .92 (and that is undoubtedly charitable)
c) Results in a .082 probability of “running the table” (if the Google calculator is correct)
In addition, please remember some of our contests (such as UNC and Michigan State) will have a Pw far lower than .92 (although admittedly, a few may have an individual contest Pw >.92). Therefore, with the foregoing premises, there is an 8 percent chance of being undefeated during the regular season. This analysis is intended only to illustrate the point that being undefeated is mathematically quite unlikely, not to provide an exact quantitative estimate.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I do not want to be a curmudgeon and I certainly would love for Duke to undefeated this year; however – and without doing an in-depth, game-by-game probability of win (Pw) analysis – let us make a few conservative assumptions:
a) Thirty regular season games
b) With a mean Pw of .92 (and that is undoubtedly charitable)
c) Results in a .082 probability of “running the table” (if the Google calculator is correct)
In addition, please remember some of our contests (such as UNC and Michigan State) will have a Pw far lower than .92 (although admittedly, a few may have an individual contest Pw >.92). Therefore, with the foregoing premises, there is an 8 percent chance of being undefeated during the regular season. This analysis is intended only to illustrate the point that being undefeated is mathematically quite unlikely, not to provide an exact quantitative estimate.

With a Pw of .92 you get a 8% of going undefeated? That 8% seems really really really high. Wouldn't it be a lot lower?

[Deslok]

For all games(including 3 ACC tournament and 6 NCAA tournament games) Duke's chance of going undefeated. given a 92% chance of winning each individual game, is about 3.56%. To have an undefeated regular season, we have about a 7.54% chance of running the table.

And of course, the reality is a 92% win chance overestimates a fair number of our games. So the odds of us going undefeated are rather long. Unless of course you live in Ozzie's world, which was a really nice place to reside last March/April.

[COYS]

For all games(including 3 ACC tournament and 6 NCAA tournament games) Duke's chance of going undefeated. given a 92% chance of winning each individual game, is about 3.56%. To have an undefeated regular season, we have about a 7.54% chance of running the table.

And of course, the reality is a 92% win chance overestimates a fair number of our games. So the odds of us going undefeated are rather long. Unless of course you live in Ozzie's world, which was a really nice place to reside last March/April.

92% win chance is definitely a huge overestimation (as I know you know, already). Last year when Duke played a team as bad as UNC-CH at home in Cameron, we only had a 94% chance of winning. And you know most teams we play next year won't be that bad.

[PADukeMom]

and that was TOTALLY your fault as i remember...

No, I take full responsibility for that loss. It was cold & snowy here in the northeast. I ran out of Bar-B-Que Fritos and I was too lazy to stop by the grocery store for a bag. Plus, since the game wasn't on TV I would have had to listen to the game on XM in 10 degree weather.
It was my fault, won't happen again. I have already stocked my pantry with Fritos.

[Kedsy]

Rest assured Duke will lose whatever game I happen to go to...
It happened last yr, I went to the State game.

and that was TOTALLY your fault as i remember...

No, I take full responsibility for that loss. It was cold & snowy here in the northeast. I ran out of Bar-B-Que Fritos and I was too lazy to stop by the grocery store for a bag. Plus, since the game wasn't on TV I would have had to listen to the game on XM in 10 degree weather.
It was my fault, won't happen again. I have already stocked my pantry with Fritos.

I watched that game. While I won't begrudge any of you partial responsibility, I think it was pretty much of a team effort.

[4decadedukie]

With a Pw of .92 you get a 8% of going undefeated? That 8% seems really really really high. Wouldn't it be a lot lower?

I thought so, too; however, the computer generated that value (I just checked the math again, with two hand-held calculators plus my desktop, with the same result from all three).

[thenameisbond]

I watched that game. While I won't begrudge any of you partial responsibility, I think it was pretty much of a team effort.

I feel so much better after reading this thread. All this time, I've been blaming myself for that loss.

[uh_no]

I thought so, too; however, the computer generated that value (I just checked the math again, with two hand-held calculators plus my desktop, with the same result from all three).

consider your 8.1% peer reviewed, and correct

the GOOGLE never lies

[oldnavy]

Undefeated? Too many things that we can't really control come into play. Injury, hot team and Duke having a bad night... but I would bet that we have a really, really good year.